Just taking a quick look at the four wild card round games this weekend, and FFM’s computer model predictions...
The FFM computer models predicted the outright winners at a (4-2) in the Wild Card round...about the same record as most people had due to the upsets from Houston and Washington. Now with the new slate, let’s see what the new round of projections are for this weekend.
Houston at Kansas City (-8.5)
We thought going into these playoffs the Texans were the worst team that made it to the playoffs...HOU and LAC + PIT. Well, the Texans survived Round 1...which should be a temporary thrill before they get their heads lopped off against KC this weekend.
I am not a pro-Chiefs analyst in any way, but I’m telling you this very week -- this is the best Chiefs team/roster they’ve had all 2024 season. They have an actual WR corps now...the venerable DeAndre Hopkins, the oncoming/settling in rookie Xavier Worthy, and the WR who I think is Mahomes’ favorite WR of the group -- Marquise Brown is back healthy. Chris Jones is healthy after a couple of weeks off. They have depth at RB. The defense and O-Line is as healthy as it has been all year. Joe Thuney moving to left tackle plugged a leak issue they had.
The cold weather, the home field, the weeks of rest/healing...the Chiefs are in prime position to waltz right through to the Super Bowl again. The Texans are not worthy to be here.
Our model’s project: Chiefs win 87% of the simulations.
Commanders at Lions (-9.5)
The Lions go into this game about as healthy as they can be. They’ve lost so many players to injury this season, but they are getting David Montgomery and Terrion Arnold fully healthy for this game, which is massive.
I have personally thought the Lions are a team of destiny this season, and you give them a week off to rest/heal and they face a rookie QB, a lower seed upset team who is somewhat lucky to be here at all -- and you might see the Lions run away with this because this is usually as far as lower seed upset teams tend to go...when they run into the #1 seed coming off a BYE week.
The Commanders have a fighting chance because they will actually play to win the game...going for it on 4th-downs and using the curveball of the running QB. The Commanders are gonna try to out-Dan Campbell the Lions...they could get some breaks and make it a game, but we have to go with the best team in football -- Detroit.
Our model’s project: Lions win 73% of the simulations.
Rams at Eagles (-6.0)
I like the Rams a lot, in general, but I hate this matchup for them. I think they’re going down here. The wrong opponent at the wrong time at the wrong place (cold, possibly snowy Philly). I think the Rams are the biggest threat to the Lions...but the Eagles are the biggest threat to the Rams.
Philly can dominate LAR via the run, like they did earlier this season...not only with the obvious (Saquon) but with Hurts too. Hurts and Stafford have about the same amount of playoff experience. The Rams O-Line is one of the better ones in the league...but Philly’s is a ‘nudge’ better. The Rams have an emerging defense, but Philly’s has emerged and soared to the best in the league already.
The Rams have one hope here...the advantage of Sean McVay over Nick Sirianni in coming up with a plan of attack. I personally (as a bettor) hope McVay has a trick up his sleeve, but I got a bad feeling about this one...but I have had bad feelings on all Rams games the last two months, fearing if I had good feelings that I’d jinx them for my offseason bets. Sometimes, your emotions dominate your professionalism.
I guess there is the hope that the snow is bad enough to make it an ‘anyone’s game’ type situation.
I think Philly just has too much of a run game advantage and I have a premonition of Kyren Williams having a key fumble in this game, as he flirted with 2-3x last game...and had some struggles with all 2024 season on & off...the Eagles are just a bad matchup for LAR.
Our model’s project: Eagles win 54% of the simulations.
Ravens (-1.5) at Bills
From the jump, I thought the Bills were gonna win this game. The week started out with Buffalo as a favorite, then it swung to the Ravens -- the public LOVES them some Lamar Jackson...they love them some ‘anything that the media constantly tells them they should love’.
This game is about three questions, to me...
1) Will Lamar falter in the playoffs again?
A (3-4) record in the playoffs in his career...an (0-2) record in ‘second’ (after winning their first game) games in any playoff run. 8 TDs/6 INTs in 7 career playoff games...a QB rating of 81.2 in the playoffs (102.0 rating in the regular season in his career).
Mark me down as someone who doesn’t trust Lamar.
2) Will Derrick Henry take this over and be the factor that takes the Ravens onto the next round?
To me, DH is the team’s MVP this season...as Henry goes, so goes Lamar and the team. It’s certainly possible, Henry is that good...and Buffalo’s defense is not what it used to be.
3) Is the Bills December+ homefield too much to overcome?
The Bills are (29-8) in December-January overall, the past 5 seasons (starting the Bills breakout era when Josh Allen exploded his year 3). One of the 8 losses, a Week 18 loss with Trubisky (2024) PLUS three losses to the Chiefs in the playoffs makes up half of those 8 losses.
AT HOME in Dec.-Jan the past 5 seasons...the Bills are (19-3).
BUT...the Bills are (1-3) overall in their ‘second’ games in a playoff run during the past five years...including two home losses (CIN and KC).
Something is gonna give on these three factors. No one knows which of the three...or some other wild card event happens. Let’s just enjoy it and not think any of us KNOWS for sure who is winning this game.
I say Buffalo will win, but I wouldn’t bet on it...but I did, just a little bit...I can’t help it, I had a premonition.
Our model’s project: Bills win 59% of the simulations.
Letting our computer models play out the playoffs from there...
KC defeats BUF
DET defeats PHI
DET defeats KC for the title.
