Game overview:
Both teams played well enough to win this game, but credit Washington/Dan Quinn specifically for coaching this game to win -- Quinn is becoming ‘Dan Campbell Jr.’. The revolution is starting to happen...one coach at a time. Dan Campbell, not McVay-O’Connell-Shanahan is leading the coaching revolution...a revolution to stop trying to ‘not lose’, and instead ‘trying to win’...getting your team used to ‘going for it’, not playing it safe and hoping to have less turnovers in the game and win the game late by random chance.
Quinn went for it on fourth-down five times in this game...converting three of them...totally changing the game’s complexion. In the 4th-quarter, Quinn went for a 4th & short (down by 3 and in easy FG range) and got stopped, and it looked like it may cost them the game but the Bucs fumbled away their control, thus giving the Commanders another shot at taking the lead and they did with a TD quick drive. After that TD, Tampa Bay was down 3 points, and drove down to the Washington 14-yard line, and were faced with a 4th & 3...and they took the field goal to tie it.
The final drive with 4+ minutes to go with a 3rd & short on the TB side of the field, trying to get into FG range, Jayden Daniels escaped Calijah Kancey’s clutches (an near -5-10 yard sack) and converted the 1st-down, which led to a chip shot FG, that doinked off the goal post, to win it at the buzzer.
Washington moves on to play the real Dan Campbell in the Divisional Round, they go there as big underdogs (-8.5/-9.5 fluctuating line). It’s probably the end of the road/too soon for the upstart Commanders this week...but the future is so bright...this team is now excellently run by GM Adam Peters (Exec of the Year) and Dan Quinn (Possible Coach of the Year). Amazing what happens with good leadership...and a franchise QB.
Tampa Bay has another ‘good season/division title’ but falls short in the playoffs season under Todd Bowles. I think TB would like to move on from Bowles, but he keeps doing just enough to stay there. The Falcons and Panthers may be ready to make their move on the somewhat fading Bucs team of the Bowles era.
Player Scouting Notes from the game:
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 (6pts TD pass) for a QB ...point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the QUALITY mark, and 2 times they did not (this current season).
-- Commanders WR report...
Big game moment, and Jayden Daniels (24-35 for 268 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 13-36-0) went to Terry McLaurin (7-89-1/10) early and often...the smart way to go vs. weak pass defense TB. I’d expect to see that again vs. Detroit.
But will Dyami Brown (5-89-1/5) have another breakout performance this week? Maybe. The #2 WR from game-to-game for WSH is a roller coaster ride. I was so sure the Olamide Zaccheus (3-19-0/3) train had left the station, betting the Props on him again/this game, after 2-3 big games in-a-row and...well, you see the numbers for him from this game...a little short of the Props.
Could be Dyami again, could go back to OZ....might be Zach Ertz (2-23-0/4). There’s no real reliable pattern, but the momentum feels like it shifted to Dyami right now.
-- Another Buccaneers game where Bucky Irving (17-77-0, 2-6-1/2) started and dominated the touch counts. Rachaad White (1-1-0, 2-6-1/2) is but a distant memory.
White played a few more snaps this game than he had in recent weeks, because Bucky was getting smoked in pass protection...but outside of that, Rachaad barely exists for TB...and the single best-looking Bucs RB of 2024, actually does not exist...Sean Tucker, who didn’t even play one offensive snap here. Insanity.
Rachaad could be moved this offseason...he has one year left on his deal. But, honestly...what NFL team/GM is paying attention and would make a savvy trade for anything that isn’t a draft pick or dumping an older player with a big contract? White is likely stuck for another year, limited to a sparsely used 3rd-down back. I pray some NFL team is paying attention, and comes and gets him, but it’s likely just a useless prayer.
-- Austin Ekeler (8-27-0, 3-26-0/4) could be an X-factor if the Commanders are to have any hope against the Lions. The over/under scoring line for WSH-DET is high...it’s expected to be high scoring, which should lead to a lot of passing game from Washington, trying to keep up with Detroit. Ekeler could play a ton of snaps and see a bunch of screens and swings in this game.
-- I’ve heard different media/analysis comments this week, when analyzing the Commanders for their upcoming game against Detroit with the quick, flippant statement like: Well, the Commanders defense is such a weakness here.
Is it?
On pass defense, they haven’t allowed a 250+ yard passing game to their last 12 QB opponents...albeit on a favorable schedule, but still...they aren’t bad against the pass. You can run on them, statistically...but they have really gotten better in that area in the 2nd-half of the season.
They just held the Bucs to their lowest total yardage output game in the last 8 weeks. Tampa Bay had been on an offensive roll with nearly 400+ yards of offense in their last 7 games to this one...a 395-yard game Week 18 was their ‘low point’/just missed 400+ again. The Commanders held them to 284 yards in this game...including one of the lowest rushing totals for TB of the season.
Washington’s team, and defense is on the rise heading into this game against Detroit. I’m starting to wonder if maybe taking the +9.5 is the right call...but I think I’ll wait to see if it goes over +10 to make a decision. *And then I went out to check the latest line, out of interest...WED night it was -9.5. THU night it’s down to -8.5. There appears to be some momentum for Washington. If it goes down to 8.0, I might then bet the Lions... Most likely, the best bet here is to ‘stay away’ and just enjoy watching it.
Snap Counts of Interest:
33 = Bucky
18 = Rachaad
57 = McLaurin
50 = Zaccheaus
45 = Dyami
17 = McCaffrey
12 = Chris Moore
11 = Crowder
