Game overview:
The Chargers raced out to a quick 6-0 lead, that really coulda/shoulda been a 10 or 14-0 lead...and I thought, “This is in the bag for the Chargers, because the Texas are so hapless.” That thesis stayed true until 6+ minutes remaining before the half.
The Texans were pinned back to their own goal line off a great punt by the Chargers. Houston had done nothing all game on offense...and were stumbling around after getting a couple of 1st-downs to get 23 yards away from their own end zone, but then they managed to get themselves into a 3rd & 16 from their own 17...what was likely going to be a screen pass, stop, and punt...and a 6-0 LAC halftime lead turned into something so much more...
On that fateful 3rd & 16, a bad shotgun snap went bounding around but took a divine intervention bounce right to a rolling-to-his-right C.J. Stroud, allowing him to snatch the fumbled snap and have time to look downfield for a receiver...the bad snap caused the defense to get disjointed, and Stroud found Xavier Hutchinson for a 34-yard, game-changing 1st-down. From that point on, the game was over...the Texans were about to blowout the Chargers...due to one crazy, perfect bounce of a football.
After seeing that play, and the subsequent turn of events that happened -- I vow never to bet games against the spread seriously again. I didn’t bet this game, but had I...it would’ve been infuriating to be on the Chargers side of this because they should’ve won this game by 20+. The mixture of terrible coaching (Harbaugh) + his horrific RB and WR depth chart constructed (with the exception of Ladd) with no real changes to it all season + the divine intervention bad snap = there is no rhyme or reason to picking or betting NFL games. No one can convince me differently.
...but I enjoy the chase, so I will bet light amounts for fun. But never will I bet seriously on games again...I’ll stick to the player props.
...a statement that probably has as much weight as: ‘The diet starts Monday’.
The Chargers are in danger of being left in the dust by KC and Denver in this division if the ‘Harbaugh Plan’ doesn’t work in the NFL, in this era. So far, I’m not impressed with the Harbaugh era...this team got worse as the season went on...they got worse in this game, as the game went on.
The Texans get a somewhat lucky win...lucky they had the poorly planned, poorly weaponized 2024 Chargers as their opponent. Houston has several issues as well, things they need to fix for 2025, or they’ll have another flat season and waste another year of cheap(er) C.J. Stroud...but a playoff win tends to give teams self-imposed grace to feel like they are in a good spot, and they just need to hold what they got and ‘grow’ together some more. Houston is lucky their division is a total mess around them.
Player Scouting Notes from the game:
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 (6pts TD pass) for a QB ...point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the QUALITY mark, and 2 times they did not (this current season).
-- I get that Justin Herbert (14-32 for 242 yards, 1 TD/4 INTs) is going to take a lot of criticism here, but I would add two thoughts...
1) His non-Ladd receiver options caused at least half the problem...passes going through their hands or bad routes, and/or they just suck.
They had WR issues all season, right out of the gates...but they never tried to acquire or add help. I don’t understand what they were thinking. But the moment Ezekiel Elliott was cut...they were all over that, signing him quickly.
2) To me, my mind is telling me on this Herbert game (and season) performance...this is where coaching comes into play for QBs.
Dan Campbell has trained his QB to be a cold-blooded assassin as a thrower...whether in a deficit or on a crucial 4th & 3/short/etc.
Where Jim Harbaugh constantly runs the ball and doesn’t trust his passing game, until he has no choice...and then that passing game rarely looks fluid/comfortable in those situations because they are not often called on or pushed/designed to be killers in those situations. 3rd & 1 for Harbaugh will always be a jumbo package run...then punt/kick when/if it fails.
Campbell has taken a kinda-sorta, previously, soft-ish Jared Goff and turned him into a killer...whether in a dome or on 4th-downs on their own side of the field or in the freezing cold (where he used to really struggle). Goff has exercised most all his supposed demons/media and fan critiques...Dan Campbell’s ‘way’ has a lot to do with that. Justin Herbert should be miles ahead of Goff, in football rankings/fan’s minds...but he’s not ahead of him at all today.
Justin Herbert, so far in his career, has been passed around through three run game/defense head coaches who did not build the offense on the passing game or push Herbert into constant pressure situations to learn/acquire a level of grit -- ‘grit’ that it appears Herbert does not have. He’s still, to me, too West Coast cool...when he should be in the debate for single best, most talented QB in the entire NFL.
-- CJ Stroud (22-33 for 282 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) really doesn’t look very good this season. I put a lot of it on the O-Line...and the coaching, because Stroud was terrific last year. It makes no sense he would have such a massive drop off this season...he should’ve taken a step forward, but part of the trouble has been DeMeco Ryans falling in love with Joe Mixon (25-106-1, 1-13-0/2) like Green Bay fell in love with Josh Jacobs, and thus Jordan Love fell way off (statistically).
Stroud had that lucky bad-snap-bounce play and 34-yard throw, and otherwise it was another FF QB2/3 level output week...like he was this entire season.
Tough time coming for Stroud in the cold at KC this week.
-- Chargers team rushing totals in games against playoff teams/opponents this season:
61 v. PIT (loss)
55 v. KC (loss)
128 v. DEN (win)
83 v. BAL (loss)
94 v. KC (loss)
32 v. TB (loss)
117 v. DEN (win)
50 v. HOU (loss)
But LAC kept trying to force the run game when it really wasn’t there...it rarely/never worked against good teams/defenses. Harbaugh never pivoted. The team was built to run, so when it can’t run...they lose.
When LAC ran for less than 100 yards as a team, they were (3-7) this season. Their big run games were against bottom feeder run defenses...and I think that suckered them into thinking they were a great run team overall. They were not. They were #17 in rush yards per game and #21 in yards per carry this season. Harbaugh never really pivoted the offense to its strength -- Justin Herbert.
-- If I see one more ‘Is Ladd McConkey (9-197-1/14) a real Dynasty future WR asset?’ article from random FF sites, big ones...ESPN among others. How is anyone doubting Ladd now?
But get ready for it, from FF writers/analysts this offseason...
McConkey articles will be: ‘Can he keep it up?’
AND
Marvin Harrison articles will be: ‘Get ready for Arizona to unlock Marv’s greatness next season’
-- Nico Collins (7-122-1/8) will be in the debate for the top 3-5 FF WRs for 2025. Stefon Diggs probably is let go. Tank Dell has to be assumed to never be right again...always hurt, seriously hurt. Nico is the clear #1...it’s all Stroud has to throw to...and it’s mostly prayer heaves to Nico because the pass game scheme and pass protection has turned to crap.
Because of their coaches, Herbert will be a QB2 projection for 2025, Stroud maybe a QB2, backend...closer to QB3 than he ever should.
BUT their trusted WRs are WR1 hopes...Nico and Ladd.
-- Everyone is gonna be in love with the Texans-DST now, after seeing ‘this’ (game) with their own two eyes. But I believe it is just ‘one-off’ events.
If you ignore the Week 18 game vs. TEN (HOU sat starters), the Texans defenses has allowed the following tallies in their last 7 games (Week 10 to 17):
Wk10 = 26 points allowed to DET, but they did get 5 turnovers...and still lost.
Wk11 = 10 points allowed to DAL with 2 turnovers...a 24-point win over Cooper Rush.
Wk12 = 32 points allowed to TEN, as Will Levis spanked them harder than any QB this season...despite 3 turnovers by TEN.
Wk13 = 20 points allowed to JAX with 1 turnover, defeating Mac Jones by 3.
Wk14 = BYE
Wk15 = 12 points allowed to Miami with 4 turnovers, defeating Tua by 8 points.
Wk16 = 27 points allowed to KC with no turnovers, losing to KC by 8 points.
Wk17 = 31 points allowed to BAL with no turnovers, losing by 29.
22.5 PPG allowed to all the opponents in that stretch.
28.0 PPG allowed to the three playoff opponents they played in there.
Houston has shown a nice ability to get turnovers this season, but they didn’t seem to get them vs. KC and BAL.
Snap Counts of Interest:
53 = Schultz
36 = Stover
50 = McConkey
47 = QJ
27 = Chark
12 = Derius Davis
