Game overview:
The Panthers win another game in OT...two OT wins in their last 3 games...as they planted 44 points on supposed defensive guru Raheem Morris’s Falcons, in a must-win game for ATL. Consider what happened here, and how embarrassing it was for Morris/the Falcons...
This was a must win game for Atlanta...and they may have thought, going in -- ‘no way TB loses to the Saints’, but then New Orleans took a 2-score lead over Tampa and it should’ve been ‘game on’ for the Falcons, but it wasn’t...the Falcons couldn’t stop the Panthers when it mattered the most. The Bucs had just completed the comeback win by the time this game went to OT, so I get the Falcons rolling over at that point...with their season officially ‘done’, but it should’ve never come down to this...ATL should’ve put away Carolina prior, while TB was losing...but they didn’t. Dave Canales is 10x the coach Raheem Morris is...with 10x less talent on the field in this game. The Falcons ‘whiffed’ by not hiring Canales.
Carolina ends the season with a (5-12) record...a (1-7) start and a (4-5) finish. A stupendous job by Dave Canales. I was pro-Canales going into 2023. I was wobbling on him listening to him talk in the 2024 preseason and his fervent support of Bryce Young at QB, but it was all just necessary/motivational coachspeak... Canales won me back when he quick-benched Young early on in the season...then won me over even more with how he developed this team all season...turning them into the 2nd-best team in the NFC South by the time the season ended.
The Falcons (8-9) were the big NFC South favorite going into the season, and they totally blew it. If any coach deserved to be a ‘one-and-done’, it was Morris. It looks like he is fine/staying and gets a chance to right the wrongs of 2024 in 2025.
I wonder who Vegas will rank higher to win the NFC South next year...ATL or CAR? The answer, I think, for me, lies in one of my player notes below.
Player Scouting Notes from the game:
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 (6pts TD pass) for a QB ...point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the QUALITY mark, and 2 times they did not (this current season).
-- My main note from this game, almost the only note from this game...is what struck me watching this tape on Bryce Young (25-34 for 251 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT, 5-24-2) vs. Michael Penix (21-38 for 312 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 1-5-1)...’watching’, but really I was further ‘scouting’ them, exclusively in this game. Young was the #1 FF QB of the week...is he really becoming a star that I have been denying for weeks with what I saw on tape? And how did Penix do in start #3...a loss to the Panthers?
So, let me explain how I first watched this tape... I had a urology appointment/the post-kidney stone analysis (which would have been the ‘schedule the surgery’ event, had I not passed them). I got to the appointment early, because I had a bunch of paperwork they said I needed to...so, they wanted me to be there 30 minutes early. I was skeptical of needing to do 30 minutes of pre-paperwork, so I brought my iPad and downloaded a cut up of the game -- just the Penix and Bryce throws or runs (not RB handoffs, kicking game, etc.)...just bang-bang-bang play after play with no wasted tape...I bought it in case I had 20+ minutes of dead time in the waiting room. Gotta be efficient in this business...any business...
So, of course, 5 minutes of completed paperwork later...I had 25 minutes to kill until my actual appointment. So, time to watch the tape and take notes!!
I’m so glad I watched this game tape from the Bryce then Penix then Bryce then Penix, etc., series by series, in order, rapid fire tape. It helped tremendously in getting a real reminder of my previous scouting/a nice comparison watching the edited tape back-and-forth between the two.
Watching the tape this way made it so clear...it’s no contest. Michael Penix is a robot QB from the future (in a good way) and Bryce Young is still a very limited QB. You may think...how could that be? Young’s numbers were amazing...Penix’s just ‘good’...and Carolina won. Well, let me describe what I saw to the best of my ability.
With Michael Penix...it was like the tape was on fast-forward...just Penix dropping back in the pocket and throwing laser beams all over the field. It’s like his passes have a homing device or heat-seeking sensor that the ball is going right to a receiver in perfect position...just out of defender’s reach or just over their heads, and right to his intended receiver. Watching him was like watching a high-tech automatic weapon operating at QB. So impressive.
While I’d see Penix firing darts all over, then the tape would quickly cut to Bryce’s turn/series...and the tape, by comparison, would look like someone hit a button for a reduced/’slow mo’ version of the real speed. It was jarring and enlightening to watch Penix’s quick decisions and laser beam arm compared to everything taking SO long for Bryce... Young is slow to get into the pocket...his throws are a much slower speed...things had to be manufactured for him with the play design, a lot of misdirections, play actions, roll outs, etc.
Bryce threw several balloon passes that were ridiculous, but then they’d land...passes so bad that the defender couldn’t adjust to it like the receiver could...leading to dumb luck connections, some for lots of yards because the defender overran the coverage as the receiver stopped and came back to make a catch and had room to then run for more yards.
Also helping Bryce...the play calling and blocking was excellent. Carolina may have the best offensive line in football...I’m not kidding. They didn’t start out that way this season, but they are finishing that way. Many of the passing plays Carolina ran were deceptive and sprung receivers wide open, as Young had extra time in the pocket to assess or deceive/misdirect and then throw a balloon to a wide-open guy. I felt like I was watching his Alabama tape again.
In 2024, Bryce Young splits in his 12 starts...
(1-3) record with 4 TDs/4 INTs = When sacked 3 or more times in a game
(3-5) record with 22 TDs/15 INTs = When sacked 0-2 times in a game.
Week 18 v. ATL was the first time Bryce ever played a game not getting sacked.
The (3-5) record split above includes three late, close losses to KC-TB-PHI later in the season.
If you give Bryce Young extra time and comfort...he can play in this league. He still looks like a backup QB talent...and those late season close-call losses were games that when the game was on the line, late, and the defense knew they were throwing, but Bryce could lead a comeback, late-game win...Bryce was neutered/failed/flopped.
It’s going to be VERY interesting to see if Dave Canales sticks by Bryce...or if he knows they have to get a real QB in for the franchise’s future...they can’t go to the next level with Bryce, even if they have a generational offensive line in 2025. In the same way that Tua is bringing down Mike McDaniel (and it’s McDaniel’s choice)...Bryce could be Canales’ stumbling block. OR, I will be WILDLY impressed...I’ll become a Panthers’ fan if they make the bold move to trade Young.
I know this...Bryce is gonna be the FF media’s darling QB for 2025...with them giving us metrics on his nice post-benching run at the end of the 2024 season...and it was nice, but you gotta study the tape of those games -- there are still major issues with Bryce.
I am super-excited about Michael Penix’s future...he’s 10x the QB Bryce Young is. But I have to be FF-careful here about how excited/sure about Penix’s 2025 that I want to get. Look at what happened in Houston from 2023 to 2024. C.J. Stroud was so good in 2023...should’ve had everything built for him to take over the offense...but he regressed/was de-emphasized hard in 2024, as the Texans are a Joe Mixon-led team instead. When ex-Defensive Coordinators become head coaches of great QBs...they tend ‘not to get it’ with great QBs...these defensive-minded coaches tend to want to be a run dominant & defense type teams...not good for FF purposes.
-- One other quick note from this game... Jalen Coker (7-62-0/7) led the Panthers in receiving here. From UDFA rookie and starting out on the practice squad to ‘the most talented receiver the Panthers have’. Adam Thielen is a talent, but he’s also gonna be 35 years old at kickoff next season. The future should be Coker. Any NFL team could’ve claimed Coker from Carolina early in the season...they didn’t.
How Coker is gonna play out for FF 2025...it’s an ‘unknown’. Just because I’m a big fan, who knows what Carolina will think? Who will be their QB even be (although I wanna trust Canales)?
Xavier Legette (3-30-0/5) doesn’t look like ‘he’s it’...but he’s fine, but also -- he’s a 1st-round pick they traded up for. NFL teams, 90%+ of the time, are partial to their 1st-round picks...just like Bryce. Is this gonna be a Bryce-Legette plan...or ?QB-Coker plan in 2025?
Snap Counts of Interest:
69 = Bijan
17 = Allgeier
62 = Coker
51 = Thielen
38 = DMoore
28 = Legette
