My quick Jan. 2025 commentary, after re-reading through this Feb/Mar 2024 report/s:

I was looking back at the evolution of the Derrick Henry moves from earlier 2024, just to re-remember and enjoy...to get reacquainted with what was going on at the time. 

Man, where we moved a basic DRD late-1st or 2nd-round pick for Henry...what a nice win. 

But, I also moved James Cook for Henry + ____ in some places...because Cook was so TD dry in Buffalo in his career, but then he goes out for a career high 15 rushing TDs in 2024. Henry did better, scored more for FF...but Cook was nowhere as weak as I projected. Cook had a helluva season in his own right...but not better than Henry's. Some things I got with Henry (for sending Cook) were killer gets...but some were 'meh'. Overall, we either won big or won OK with our Henry deals early 2024. 

Anyway, here's a look back/a reprint/repost of the all-important Feb/March call to arms on Derrick Henry...back when every NFL analytics person wrote Henry off for dead because of their 'data' and thus FF analysts were dog whistled by the half-baked analytics and they crushed Henry too...which was the beauty of this major heist -- going against the narrative 99%+ of 'them' adopted. 

...and remember this was written weeks before the Free Agency signing period actually happened in 2024.

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(Update 3.0)

This is so important of a move...a game of chicken...a poker hand showdown for a giant pot – I wanted to update everyone on the latest things I see happening here from FFM-land on the deals happening based off of this report we published a couple weeks ago.

The 3.0 Update is located at the bottom of the report, so as not to spoil things for those who will be reading it later (and many...’too late’).

 

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(Update 2.0)

I just wanted to do a quick check in/follow up on the Derrick Henry trade market...

I am putting the update at the bottom of this report so as not to spoil the report for those reading it for the first time. I’ve got a message and a market gauge/pricing/trades I’m seeing go through to give you some ideas of the deal structures. Scroll to the bottom of this report and you'll see the update area marked in RED

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Original Report (2/9/24):

We’re all distracted by the Super Bowl and what QB is going where at the top of the 2024 NFL Draft, but as soon as the Super Bowl ends – much of the NFL talk will shift to looming free agency. But, right now, there’s very little/minor free agency talk...which creates a bit of a window to act, potentially...hopefully, on a particular player that is seeing their Dynasty value fading – but I think their value is going to skyrocket into and after free agency. That player is Derrick Henry.

Last year, we created and discussed the extraordinary FF value in OEWRs over the past season – the Older Elite Wide Receivers (OEWR)...guys like Keenan Allen, Davante Adams, Mike Evans, etc. One of the hallmarks of an OEWR is how much they are undervalued in Dynasty leagues because they’re ‘old’...they’re ‘old news’...they’re gonna break down any minute and leave their FF owner with nothing, a player of no value (in owner’s heads).

If you think Dynasty owners fear wide receivers aging...then times that by 10-100x when it comes to running backs – there’s all kinds of charts and graphs about drop off age and heavy workload pressure...things that were true 5-10+ years ago but are total bullshit/useless now in the era of modern supplements and workout routines and human growth hormone and stem cell injections.

Dynasty owners have always HATED older players and they’ve always LOVE-LOVE-LOVE the allure, the new car smell of younger players, especially rookies, and LOVE-LOVE-LOVE 1st-round draft picks to get a lottery ticket shot at those rookies. A Dynasty owner expends a lot of brain function worrying about selling off a Travis Kelce or Keenan Allen, for the past 2-3-4 years, while they still can, because in their FF owner’s mind – it’s a fait accompli...they are going to get hurt, their best days are gone, and they’re gonna go from some kind of value to no value – so, better act now and get something because holding an older player into their fade/end and having no value to trade is about the single worst thing that could happen (in Dynasty owner’s minds). On the other hand, if they make a high rookie draft pick of a player who does nothing for 1-2 years or never...that doesn’t really matter as much, it’s a part of the game, and ‘you never know...THIS might be the year!’ and the journey to no value it’s forgotten quickly on lottery ticket draft picks that are written off like a simple accounting entry. BUT holding on to an older player who is gonna die off soon – that’s the worst kind of write-off...and MUST be avoided at all costs by Dynasty owners. Dynasty owners will do anything to try and sell the ‘peak’ of an older player...’older’ (today) being like 27+, but especially 29-30+ years old. Better to sell them off and get something and dump these players onto some sucker.

I’ll be your ‘sucker’...for the right price.

Enter Derrick Henry 2024 into this scenario/opportunity.

Henry is 30 years old, as I write this, and will be closer to 31 than 30 at 2024 season kickoff. Anytime the number three is first on a player's listed age – Dynasty owner’s panic...hyperventilate...create a problem in their mind. The problem quickly becomes an urgent to-do list item...because time/waiting is not on their side. The time to sell them was yesterday, and they’re kicking themselves over it...and the solution to soothe their mental distress is for them to trade the ancient asset as fast as possible...check it off the FF-anxiety to-do list ASAP.

Derrick Henry is the ultimate ‘sell now’ mental distress item. He’s 30+ years old. He had an up-and-down season and people perceive that he was getting bumped by, splitting too many snaps with some rookie out of Tulane (and God help us if Henry returns to the Titans...and many assume he will)...AND he had a career low in yards per carry (4.2) in 2023 and he’s not a good receiver, so it’s even more dire in PPR.

The above statement is ABSOLUTELY what approx. 99% of his current Dynasty owners think about Henry right now. Maybe you do too? The problem with all that is – that statement/general thought on Henry is mostly wrong...and somewhat irrelevant to what’s about to happen in March free agency.

Among the NFL running backs for 2023, where do you think Henry ranked in carries for the season? Just a quick reaction...top 10...top 5? How about #1...the running back with the most carries in the NFL in 2023. Henry has led the NFL in carries four out of his last 5 seasons...and the last four have been met with offseason ‘sell Henry now’ FF articles...because the big workload was surely gonna mean his body would give out. You weren’t considered a ‘smart’ FF owner if you didn’t sign onto the theory of the big workloads at RB causing their imminent and early demise...and just dumb if you didn’t look at age and effectiveness charts of players over a 10-20 year span. It didn’t take much convincing...most everyone signed on – we hate older players in Fantasy. The problem is – it hasn’t been true in Henry’s case (and many others in the current era) for years and people have missed out on a great FF asset...sold him off at a discount trying to ‘call the top in the market’, in some cases.

Is Henry about to implode due to his accrued workload? Someday, it will happen...but the guy may be in better shape now than any 25-year-old and younger RB in the league...he may be in better shape than any RB in the NFL...or on the planet. His ‘down’ season/2023...it will be perceived as ‘age’ and ‘wearing down tread on the tires’, but it wasn’t.

Let’s talk about ‘reality’ with Derrick Henry: The 2023 problem with Derrick Henry was Mike Vrabel...the Titans offense and offensive line. I would argue that the Titans, due to injury and design (thus Vrabel gone) had the single worst offensive line in the NFL in 2023 (and many rating agencies agreed). And because Vrabel is predictable in a heavy run-Henry game and loved Ryan Tannehill too long, opponents were very comfortable to stack the box like usual versus Henry and that terrible O-Line – and yet Henry still ran for 1,1100+ yards and 12 TDs...even with a lower yards per carry and splitting a lot of snaps with Tyjae Spears.

When Henry was in the game...he was getting the ball. Snap count was irrelevant, but people flipped out over ‘snaps’ anyway. Vrabel would’ve run Henry 30-40+ times a game if he could’ve, but that’s crazy even for Vrabel AND the opposing defense would stack 11 in the box and plays to Henry would result in +/- 0 yards too often. To give Henry a break and to throw a wrinkle at the defense...Vrabel had to rotate Henry out some.

All this to say...Derrick Henry is still a very viable RB, arguably the most dangerous/best runner of the ball in the league, if all things were equal...but things weren’t equal for Henry in 2023 – he had one of the worst situations any RB could work behind. But all that could be about to change...

Henry enters free agency in March, and I don’t think people realize how HUGE that is going to be in the NFL marketplace. Derrick Henry might be one of the most coveted free agents since Tom Brady hit the market.

Yes, I know running backs don’t matter as much in this era. Us ‘smart’ fans know this...but the NFL doesn’t. Half the league’s head coaches desire to be a ground-and-pound 1970s offense led by a workhorse warrior running back who imposes his physicality on the defense. Derrick Henry is the greatest power RB profile of this generation...for those older school, run game-oriented offenses. He is the ultimate get...just like Tom Brady was a savior for any number of teams when he was available. You may not think Henry is that valuable, but you’re thinking with your Fantasy mind...the one that is bias/afraid of anything 30+ years old and thinks RBs are interchangeable. In most cases, RBs are interchangeable/easily replaceable – but there are a few exceptions...there are no Derrick Henry-a-likes. He’s a different asset...he’s a special/unique case.

A progressive NFL offense with a young offensive-minded head coach, especially one with a top RB in place...they have no need/desire to spend big for Derrick Henry. However, the old school offenses with old school head coaches – Derrick Henry is their Tom Brady...Henry is their white whale, especially for those teams in win-now mode for 2024.

And if what I’m saying is true – Henry is going to get a monster deal to go to a team/coach/offense that was designed with Derrick Henry dreams in mind...he’ll go to a place where he is wanted to be THE GUY...not A GUY playing in a split role backfield.

What is Derrick Henry FF-worth going to a team with a solid+ O-Line and him being THE MAN...what’s that worth in FF 2024? What if Henry is signed to a huge deal by the Eagles? Or Miami? Or Baltimore? Or Las Vegas? Or Denver? Or the Chargers? Or Minnesota? Or Chicago?  Some team is going to break the bank to win the Henry sweepstakes...and when they do, Fantasy projections will skyrocket...for just 2024. Dynasty owners will still be skeptical of the age/fade and willing to sell – but the price of acquisition will double from where it is right now with all the hype and good vibes.

Right now, as I write this...there are low/no good vibes on Henry. I think some/half the people feel he’ll wind up back with Tennessee...the scene of the crime in 2023. That fear pushes his value down/his trade-away desire up. Or, they think if he doesn’t go back to Tennessee...he’ll likely go to a team where he’ll be part of a split/RBBC, because he’s SO OLD, he’ll need help playing running back while using a walker. You think I’m kidding, but this is the perception of Henry.

I know it’s the perception on Henry because you’re probably not fully buying this either. You’re not excited by this ‘call to arms’. The notion that I am pushing Henry as the hot acquisition of early offseason 2024...you’re not moved/thrilled, most likely. He’s not a sexy rookie. This is not as wonderful as your Rachaad White and Isiah Pacheco masterplans last year, RC. You think that because of the age and the allure of possessing virgin territory of young talent first/ahead of the crowd. Rachaad-Pacheco 2023 was genius, but I go where I see the extreme value – right now that’s with Henry.

What’s sexy about Derrick Henry, besides the fact that he is arguably, still, the best RUNNER of the ball in the NFL...the sexy part of this is – the great value, the ‘buy low’ you can get him for. If you’ve got a Dynasty team that is a ‘favorite’ to win the title in 2024 season, and that’s most of you – adding Henry to the arsenal for 2024, at a low cost, is brilliant...for 2024...and maybe 2025...and, sure, in 2026 it may be fading, but this about NOW...2024...and winning NOW while you got the infrastructure.

OR...you can chase young RBs or chase/hold draft picks instead.

 

So, this eventually begs the question – what will it take to acquire Derrick Henry right now? A quick check of a consensus Dynasty rankings/valuations of RBs would find Henry outside the top 20 RBs...and more around #25 give-or-take. I’m surprised, not surprised to see RBs like Joe Mixon and Najee Harris and Tony Pollard ranked ahead of him.

For me, all Fantasy RBs are endangered species. I really only look at them a year at a time now (in this modern era)...outside Christian McCaffrey, all the other top names...the top 10-15 or so Dynasty RBs...you could put their names in a hat, and I’ll draw two of them and be fine. I have my faves and my dislikes among the names, but honestly...are you really that confident that Breece Hall is going to outproduce Josh Jacobs or Rachaad White...or Derrick Henry in 2024? I’m not worried about 2027, when it comes to RBs. Sure, I’d rather have ‘younger’, all things being equal...but the valuations and FF prices are not equal here. Henry is trading at a steep discount to most all of them – and he’s on-field better than most every one of them.

You can likely swap your late 1st-round rookie draft pick for Henry and potentially get a 2nd/3rd-round pick back or some lesser valued player tacked on...it shouldn’t be a 1st for Henry straight. This is as much about acquisition cost as possessing the player. I wouldn’t use a high 1st-round pick for Henry...that’s not the scenario to leverage into Henry properly. High 1st-round picks are reserved for bigger fish...Henry is a cheaper, unwanted fish right now. A high 2nd-round pick straight for Henry...might make sense, if the current owner is really afraid of the unknown with Henry hitting free agency.

There may be a better way to psychologically go about this – pursuing a Dynasty swap involving your younger RB for Henry. RB deals go easier when the receiving owner is getting a replacement/perceived upgrade. A few ideas off the top of my head/looking at the top 20 Dynasty RBs...

James Cook for Henry? I’d rather have Henry...and then that deal would be Cook for Henry + ____ thing. You get more because you’re taking on the age risk. Maybe you get a 2nd-round rookie pick as the add-on? Your last 3rd included for their high 2nd? Just spitballing. Could be the add-on is a younger prospect/2nd-year player that’s fallen out of favor.

Kenneth Walker for Henry? I like Walker OK, but if I could get Henry + an even better ____ ...and thus avoid any Walker v. Charbonnet with the new coach...

Tony Pollard for Henry? No brainer. And you can get a little something extra potentially.

Travis Etienne for Henry? Yep. Henry + a nice ____ for it.

I like the concept of involving a younger, generic RB to get Henry + assets...when, in reality, I’d take Henry over Pollard-Cook-Etienne types straight up, with a 2024 focus...but then I am getting the extra asset along with it.

This is not GET HENRY AT ANY PRICE!! I’m not selling guys I have faith/value in for Henry...I’m not dealing Rachaad White for Henry + ___ just to make a trade (unless the ___ blew my mind). The reason for this report...the beauty of this situation is – acquiring Henry at a discount preying on a Dynasty owner’s worst fears at the absolute perfect time (pre-free agency).

WRs sent in trade for Henry? Sure. For a WR starved team, they might take a mid-range WR straight up for Henry.

Jayden Reed for Henry...I’d do it in a hot second.

Jordan Addison for Henry...yes, and I’ll get Henry + a real nice ___ in that for sure.

Terry McLaurin straight for Henry...yep. Might get a little more too.

D.K. Metcalf for Henry? Yep, because it would be Henry + a nice ____.

Just some ideas...and, again, we’re going after Henry for the discount but also for the fact that he will very likely go to a team where he is going to be the king again...and it be a much better situation than his last two seasons with dreadful Tennessee.

The risk of trading for Henry ahead of free agency? I guess he could go back to Tennessee, but with a new coach with a different style and in a rebuild/remake away from Vrabel...Henry is likely not wanted. And even teams like Tennessee or Buffalo or Green Bay or Pittsburgh, teams who might dip their toe in the water to bring him in to split the backfield or whatever – the offers from those teams will pale in comparison to like a Philadelphia or Dallas (or watch out for Buffalo...then trading Cook), where they would make him a feature of their offense. Henry back to Tennessee seems very unlikely...so, with a wide-open opportunity, you’d think Henry would choose to go where he will be featured and it’s a coaching stable/desired situation.

I think Baltimore, Dallas, Miami (among others) might try and make a big move for the RIGHT NOW for their franchises. The Ravens already tried to get him at the trade deadline. If Henry signs with Dallas...how high will his FF/Dynasty value go? That’s what I’m saying...most Dynasty owners think Henry is shot and he’s either staying in Tennessee or going somewhere to split/be put out to pasture. I think that’s all wrong and is creating a great value opportunity.

 

 

BONUS OPPORTUNITIES...

Bonus Item #1:

Everything I just laid out on the case for buying low on Henry – I could make a somewhat similar case for Austin Ekeler, who has now found himself ‘out of favor’ as well -- after two stunning seasons in 2021 and 2022, Ekeler had a down 2023 and everyone ‘knows’ he’s ‘shot’...he’s ‘old news’. Ekeler will be 29.5 years old when the 2024 season kicks off.

Ekeler is another RB who is in supreme physical condition, like Henry. They are workout warriors extraordinaire. They aren’t ‘shot’. It’s logical that people are taking age + coming off the lowest yards per carry season in their career + a general FF letdown in 2023 and jumping to a conclusion = that the end is near.

But Ekeler, like Henry, played behind one of the worst O-Lines in the NFL in 2023 – due to injury + coaching. I didn’t see Ekeler as ‘shot’ at all on tape. He did have an injury sustained Week 1 and missed several games and maybe didn’t come back at 100%, but that is not an indicator of his decline in skills or age concerns...hell, RBs of all ages get hurt in a given season. Ekeler has played in 47 of 51 possible games the past three seasons combined. He’s not an injury risk any more than any other RB.

Like Henry, Ekeler is a free agent...and very likely NOT returning to his long-time team due to a coaching change. And when Ekeler is a free agent, teams are gonna swoon...and swoop in after him. I feel like Ekeler is that NFL opportunity, for some team, that Christian McCaffrey was for the 49ers...take advantage of the dumb, poorly coached organization and grab a bargain leader-RB not usually available.

Ekeler is well-respected in the NFL, and he’ll be signed by a team, most likely, to be the main threat in the backfield...but probably working with a #2 RB who takes some touches here and there (like most ALL backfields now). If Kyren Williams is now a star...then the smaller RB/uber-talented Austin Ekeler can return to his star days in the right situation immediately...like in Minnesota (running a similar McVay-like offense)...or Ekeler can do so for any number of McVay-ite coaching tree branches that now populate about half the NFL (it seems).

Ekeler is ranked a little ahead of Henry in Dynasty rankings (because he’s a year younger), but not far off Henry and he is also outside the consensus top 20 Dynasty RBs now. Seriously, who would you rather have for FF 2024...James Cook or Tony Pollard...or unknown-team, right this second, Austin Ekeler? Ekeler might have 2-3 more seasons in him.

If you start the 2024 FF season with Henry-Ekeler...you’re in about as good a shape as any FF backfield could be. If you already have a great FFM backfield of like a White-Pacheco...you don’t have to make room for Henry-Ekeler, but for the price of acquisition, if you can steal one of those two older RBs...and suddenly possess this great trio or go for both (if cheap enough) and create a quad of RB power – you could be dominant in a very volatile FF position.

You can also look at a Henry-Ekeler acquisition as a ‘flip’ potential. If you can buy cheap now, then when/if they strike gold in free agency and people get excited about their new situation...then you might sell them hot, if they landed perfect...or wait until September, Week 1-2-3, when everyone panics after one week of weak RB output on their team...then these ‘geezers’, if they’re rolling back to normal, will have their nice value again.

It’s all about the value...the cost of acquisition. It’s not buying them to accomplish a task, it’s getting it at the right price/basis.

 

Bonus Item #2:

If Derrick Henry is not returning to the Titans, then Tyjae Spears is suddenly in a great spot to take over the backfield. And that’s not breaking news on my behalf. But what I would say about it is – Dynasty owners believe Spears is taking over...but only ‘kinda’ believe it.

Spears, like Henry and Ekeler, is also in the consensus 20+ RB Dynasty ranking...20+ is reserved for the perceived bottom 10 known starting RBs or even suspected starting RBs in the league. Lowly ranked because of age or general non-hype. It was the range where Rachaad White and Isiah Pacheco were buried this time last year. It’s a range/prison where the current RB starters are, but they had to go/list somewhere and the mainstream/THEY don’t believe in them that much, so these unloved RBs are at the back of the line.

I think Tyjae Spears has some value to current owners – but he is still (likely) at a bargain price in many leagues. He’s hopeful for current owners, but underappreciated.

Spears is not as easy to get as a Henry or Ekeler, because again...Dynasty owners are smitten with youth and possibilities/fairy tales over ‘old hat’. In fact, I bet if you had Spears and offered him to the Henry or Ekeler owner...you could probably make the 1-for-1 deal...maybe. Spears is young and the current ‘guy’ for the Titans, but Spears didn’t blow up as a rookie and he has a chronic knee issue that might shorten his career, and Dynasty owners LOVE to make moves based on 5-9 years from now...so, Spears isn’t fully believed in. New coach...new staff...they may prefer someone else.

There are reasons to doubt Spears, on the surface.

But I would propose that we consider some of the positives here: Spears is really talented. Arguably the most talented RB from the 2023 draft class. He’s no joke. He’s just got that long-term knee concern hanging over his value, which in my 1-2 years RB window of concern anymore...I really don’t care about as much...I don’t think any RB out there is someone I’ll get and ride for the next 5-10 years in Dynasty. My focus here is more on – is Spears the likely main starter for the Titans in 2024? I believe ‘yes’...and I know he’s talented...so, I’m interested if he is being underappreciated by his current owner.

Current Spears owners worry about his knee...worry that he wasn’t drafted highly (subconsciously)...worried he went to a mid-major college (not a sexy SEC RB)...worried about the new head coach’s desire (which no one knows)...worried the media doesn’t talk about him (no group think/herd mentality to comfort them)...really worried Derrick Henry may return. On a list of pros and cons, in a mental microsecond of assessment, current Spears owners (by and large) have a lot of cons and very little pros...the only real pro being (for most) if/when they read some blurb that some random FF analyst said Spears is a sleeper for 2024. I think if you give current Spears owners a reason to bail...they will. You just have to play it cool.

If you contact an owner about Henry or Ekeler...that owner’s heart will leap at the chance to ditch these decrepit ticking time bombs. If you contact an owner directly about Spears...then their guard is up...they wonder if you know something they may not...and they don’t want to get burned in a deal giving up a future great for nothing. Younger players are magical unicorns, so people get wary of losing the fairy tale. You have to come up with a sexy reason/exchange in order for them to give you Spears in a deal. It will likely take a James Cook for Spears + ____ situation, a pretty solid blank...I mean, you are giving up a great starting RB (in the world’s mind) for a suspect/risky situation RB. Any time you can make an owner feel much better about their eternal worry over their RBs, by giving them an RB in a deal for an RB...you can make hot deals. Pollard, Etienne, etc., type RBs that you may not care about near as much as the world does. But a hot young WR2-ish type hopeful in exchange for Spears might do the trick for the WR needy.

I think Spears is going to be the main starter for Tennessee. I think Spears is very talented...like an RB1 hopeful. I’m not as sure of it as my Rachaad and Pacheco calls of 2023 this time last year, because I too am waiting to see like everyone else – does the Titans new coach bring in some other RB that messes up my confidence. Last year, I knew Pacheco and Rachaad had the same coach, same base situation. Spears is in a regime change. We have to allow for that – which just means I still want to acquire, but it has to be at my price...knowing there’s a discount for Tennessee situation in flux.

 

 

Summary:

Acquiring Spears is a cute side item thought...that if you’re more intrigued by it than my Henry-Ekeler pitch, then that’s part of the overall issue/opportunity on Henry-Ekeler. People love the young unknowns and want to get rid of old news, old players...especially old RBs – but they are not old...not in 2024...in 2014 they would be put out to pasture at their ages, but not today.

In about three weeks, and possibly starting the week after the Super Bowl, as the focus turns to free agency...then Henry and Ekeler will start to get more focus...more attention...and when ___ team is rumored to be in on Henry or Ekeler, their current owner’s minds will dance with delight on them.

If you want a deal on two of the best FF running backs of the 2020s, the top 1-2-3 best of the past few years prior to 2023 – the time is now and before the Super Bowl ends. There still may be time after, because they’re still older and mistrusted -- but the best window is now. And any of these RB moves is about price over everything – it’s not about getting player specifically; it’s about getting them at a killer price...or ‘walking away’ if the current owner is more uptight about trading than they are the older RBs collapsing on them. Stick to your (cheap) guns here...assume the current owners are panicked by these situations, and that they’re secretly scared on them/willing to deal...regardless of their bluster. Expose the internal, unspoken pain...or walk.

 

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2/13/2024 UPDATE:

 -- First off, time is not your friend here.

I’m not saying that those of you who have offers out there, etc., need to up the offers and close the business today because the window is closing fast...the brilliance of this move is in the acquisition price, not the getting of Henry (which will also be brilliant).

The window is closing slow...but it’s closing the closer we get to free agency talk dominating the post-Super Bowl football media. It’s already happening but it’s really going to fire up next week and every day as we march towards free agent signings. Don’t drag your feet too much.

 

 -- I am going to give some examples of real deals happening, and obviously everyone’s situation is different. But I can report, almost all, or all, approaches for Derrick Henry are being met with exuberance by his current power...giddy to dump the ancient vessel. That’s what my report/call to arms was counting on, and I can tell you it’s ‘real’. The discounting of him is real. The desire for his owner to dump him on you is palpable.

The approaches for Austin Ekeler are a little choppier, as expected, but still very fertile. I am seeing 3-4 deals for Henry for every Ekeler involved deal.

And most of these examples are from leagues that are PPR (and half-PPR the rest). In the non-PPR market, Henry is more valued, but I’m mostly ignoring the non-PPR market because I have limited data/involvement in them...you gotta get out of non-PPR leagues or get the rules changed or find PPR Dynasty leagues to also join with your decrepit non-PPR league. Half-PPR is a step in the right direction.

 

Examples of Dynasty trades for Derrick Henry have been (and I’m using 12-team league examples, so adjust to your numbers accordingly):

 -- Henry for a 2nd-round pick (2.01-2.05 range), straight up. Best case straight up pick-for scenarios. The simplest, cleanest, lower cost deal.

 -- Henry for a late 1st-round pick (1.10-1.12 range), straight up. The priciest it gets. If you're RB needy as the missing piece for 2024...I get paying this much. 

 Henry + a 3rd-round pick for a late 1st-round pick (1.08-1.12). If you use a 1st-round pick, you have to get something else with it. Henry owners are jonesing to dump him AND they LOVE 1st-round picks, so make it good/count.

 -- James Cook for Henry + (_____) midrange player/prospect. I’ve seen that blank be Purdy (QB needy team), or J. Downs + a 4th, or D. London as some examples of the (____) . Cook has been a popular sell-off example I gave, but also many FFMers got Cook last year or two, so he’s on more FFM rosters...thus more Cook trades. Your league mates LOVE James Cook, so make this count.

 -- You can take Cook (or similar) + a 2nd-round pick and get Henry + Anthony Richardson (if the current owner has another #1 QB). I’ve seen Cook + 2nd for Henry and Pickens + a 4th-round pick. And Cook + 2nd for Henry + Kincaid.

I’ve even seen Henry AND Ekeler for the 1.04.

Point being...people want OFF Derrick Henry (and Ekeler...and Kelce...and Mike Evans...and Keenan Allen) BAD/urgently. And they LOVE James Cook type ‘young’ RBs. I think Cook is at risk of a split in 2024 and being the lead RB for Buffalo is not that fruitful anyway. I think we’re at ‘peak’ (‘sell high’) James Cook right now. Cook + a 2nd will get you Henry + good/great thing/s.

But Cook + 1st-round pick will get you a bank robbery potentially...for Henry + an ace + a good other player.

 

Just some ideas from what I’m seeing going down in deals. And this Henry (and Ekeler) proposal/concept...it seems underwhelming, but that’s because we’re all biased against older players and jazzed by the young (and the restless), but pulling off highway robbery getting Henry/Ekeler at a steep discount may be the single best move I will pitch in 2024...because it’s so easy to execute because rare is the opposing side so eager to DUMP this player on me/us.

Just remember – it’s as much about acquiring/possessing the upside value of Henry/Ekeler as it is the price in which we are doing it. Don’t overpay in a desire to ‘get ‘er done’. NO ONE is bidding against you. NO ONE wants Henry/Ekeler. You’re bidding against the current owner’s fears and desires. 

Need help or a sanity check on an offer...I’ll do my best if you email me 

I’ll try to respond as quickly as I can, but I never know when that will be...but I know time is of the essence, and this is important to all our FF/Dyno futures.

 

 

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2/18/2024 UPDATE 3.0:

Again, I want to note/cajole...the clock is ticking here. Free agent talk...’best fits’ for free agents articles are pumping out more and more. Every day for the next 3+ weeks the free agent chatter will get louder, the rumors flying. Time is not your friend trying to make these deals, but we seem to be in a good space on it still/at this moment...because people are motivated/wanna dump Henry and Ekeler with urgency.  

They’re gonna regret it in a few weeks (my prediction), so you gotta go get the hostages from their kidnappers clandestinely...and quickly.

 

Three quick notes/updates to share:

 

1) Still, I see little resistance detected in people getting Derrick Henry, in Dynasty...he’s being moved like he’s old garbage that has little value. #10-16 overall Dynasty Rookie Draft picks seems to be the valuation, if you go that route. Try to get back a later round pick in the deal to replace the lost pick sent.

That (paragraph above) is the fastest way to get it done. The more fruitful way has been people trading ____ younger RB for Henry + ____. And the ‘blanks’ are dependent upon each other...and the blanks have been brilliant in many cases that I’ve seen by FFMers.

Again, I noted in my last update...if you’re struggling with the blanks...email me (I put my email on the update 2.0). I can weigh in on your concepts...been doing it all week. IT IS THAT IMPORTANT. This is a huge move for 2024...quite possibly the move of the year...but I’m still looking for new moves to compete/beat it. Right now, THIS IS the move...if you can pull it off properly. The cost/exchange matters...not the player just being acquired at any price.

 

2) The real shifting news/update is on Austin Ekeler...

Last update, I noted the Ekeler part of the opportunity seemed to be slower moving and a touch more expensive than Henry...and I was just seeing more Henry deals than Ekeler deals, in general. So, I noted the Ekeler opportunity as being a step behind Henry.

This update, the gap is closing. I’m starting to see the Ekeler deals, and they are getting near the price (low) of Henry.

You must assume (and you’re gonna be correct 95% of the time) that...no matter what the current owner says or rejects, they want off of Henry or Ekeler because ‘they’re old’ and ‘done’. I don’t care what they tell you or text you...I know, in most every case, they are internally wanting to ditch them.

I know this because there is a pattern in the recent FFMer’s trade talks...the RB trade is discussed, offer is made by us...most first attempts, officially sent over, are rejected. The key is to then just let it go quiet. Don’t rapidly counter or argue or up your offer yet. Play it cool. Most every time, in this particular scenario, when you don’t pressure it -- the Henry/Ekeler owner makes the next move/offer. When they do, no matter how ridiculous or not the counter...you (likely) know you got them – when they counter after you go silent for 24 or so hours on it (after they reject an official offer by you), you know they are motivated to move them. Then it’s just arguing about price to see if you can get to a deal.

If you’re getting stoned out of basic talks...just make/send an official, reasonable offer you like. What do you have to lose? Make them reject it on their computer/phone. Make them think about it. When/if they reject...then see what they do next. If they never re-engage, you’re put in a spot to either drop it...or up the offer/send officially. Keep making them reject official offers...don’t give them the puss way out of texting back and forth concepts and they act all ‘hard to get’ and ‘in love with ____’ when texting – put them on the spot, all on their own to think about...you have nothing to lose by sending official offers even if they’ve been stonewalling things. Make them declare.

I’m not trying to make it sound easy...I’m trying to find a way for those who have been blocked initially, to try and find a way.

My pastor’s theme/said in his excellent sermon today: I’m not stuck...unless I stop. Same goes for these Henry/Ekeler deals. Put the hard-to-deal-with owners on the spot...make them reject a way out on Henry/Ekeler...as we assume they are very much looking for a way out but aren’t going to say it out loud.

 

3) Last note is on the player I’m seeing traded the most in Henry/Ekeler deals...James Cook.

If you own James Cook, I’d like to propose/pitch – that he IS a ‘sell high’ player...whether you want to pursue Henry/Ekeler or anybody else.

Cook had that big game against Dallas Week 15 last season (179 yards rushing, 42 yards receiving and 2 TDs), and everyone got on board with Cook + the new O-C change, including me, but then it was straight downhill after that game for the rest of the season and into the playoffs.

Cook’s 5 games (incl. playoffs) after his Week 15 v. Dallas ‘pop’: 17.0 carries, 58.8 rush yds (3.46 ypc), 2.5 rec., 7.6 yds rec., 0.0 TDs per game.

Prior to the big Week 15 pop, Weeks 1-14, Cook was the #20 PPG PPR RB in Fantasy. His Week 15 popped him into the RB1/top 12 (#12) for the season (at that time). And then he fell...finishing #17 in RB PPG PPR with 3 dud performances to finish the season.

Cook is good, as a talent...no qualms. It’s the situation in Buffalo that is not good...for RBs...for FF output...and it hasn’t been for years, for any RB, since Josh Allen rose to power. Buffalo signed/danced with Leonard Fournette late in the season...not because they were all-in on Cook as the lone ballcarrier (my speculation). Ty Johnson started taking a few more touches/snaps down the stretch...and looked as effective as Cook.

I am thinking for 2024... With the heavy amount of ‘big’/physical RBs hitting free agency and in the draft...Buffalo is going to be able to grab a better-than-Latavius Murray type RB to split the backfield with Cook. And I think Sean McDermott wants a thunder/lightning combo backfield...more on the thunder side. Whether that is D’Onta Foreman...or whether that is A.J. Dillon, etc. And when the backfield is split, with Josh Allen looming over them all, Cook is going to become a passing game back more than a main carry back...and that has value -- but not an RB1 value, like I’m seeing proposed in early Dynasty RB rankings. Cook being Dynasty-ranked right with Rachaad White is a joke (Jan. 2025 note: the joke was on me!).

All that to say...if you own Cook...I think it is ‘sell high time here’, for whatever you’d like to get into.