Game overview:
Considering the Browns’ injuries and the QB they went with on purpose, this was an unnecessarily close-ish game for 3+ quarters. Cleveland got it down to 21-10 with 11+ minutes remaining...then the Ravens/Derrick Henry took over and scored 2 TDs to finish off a comfortable 35-10 win...but considering the circumstances, this wasn’t an impressive win at all for the Ravens.
The Browns (3-14) lose their 6th in a row...the ‘tank’ almost worked...the Browns will pick #2 in the 2025 NFL Draft.
The Ravens (12-5) win the AFC North, after trailing the Steelers for the longest time. Baltimore will now face the Steelers in the playoffs, which is nearly a ‘bye’ at this point.
Player Scouting Notes from the game:
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 (6pts TD pass) for a QB ...point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the QUALITY mark, and 2 times they did not (this current season).
-- Zay Flowers (1-12-0/2) gave us a reminder of how nice it is for teams to have a meaningless Week 18 to sit key players in...Zay hurt his knee, which was feared to be a possible ACL but was a knee sprain, and he’s week-to-week. It’s likely he’s not available for the Steelers game this Saturday.
Rashod Bateman (5-76-1/8) will have to step up...but likely draws Joey Porter in coverage to throw some roadblocks in that thesis. Tylan Wallace (0-0-0/1) will step into a starting role, in the slot (in theory)...and draws tough slot CB Beanie Bishop.
More likely, to get the passing game ‘over’ this week -- the Ravens will run two TE sets...using Isaiah Likely (3-38-0/5) as a quasi 3rd-WR. Likely’s better output games this season were against the Steelers.
4-75-0/5 in Week 11 v. PIT
3-29-1/3 in Week 16 v. PIT
-- Round of applause for Derrick Henry (20-138-2, 2-23-0/3)...the seminal piece to the FFM puzzle for 2024 -- a guy Dynasty teams traded for cheap in the 1st-half of the calendar year, then still cheap enough in the summer, and a bargain in most redrafts in August+. We killed it on this guidance.
Many FF analysts, early 2024 offseason, had great infographics and metrics to show that Henry was ‘shot’ because of his 2023 numbers...completely not taking context of the Titans O-Line/2023 and offensive plan (which was a Vrabel nightmare...which is conveniently forgotten now as teams will kill themselves to hire Vrabel) into consideration...and thus allowing us to grab him cheap all over the place in the 2024 offseason.
He ended up the #4 PPR PPG RB for 2024 (Weeks 1-17).
-- Bailey Zappe (16-31 for 170 yards, 1 TD/2 INT) was a ‘gamer’ here, but was in an impossible spot. He’s destined to be a #3/journeyman QB for life. He just doesn’t have the size or arm to attract any real NFL attention.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s (2-3 for 13 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 2-3-0) career is about over. He’s destined for the UFL/Arena leagues. He’s not gotten better at all in his three NFL seasons.
-- Two Browns RBs that we got to see more of here...
D’Onta Foreman (10-27-0, 1-8-0/1) looked fine, but he was working behind the worst overall O-Line (according to our internal metrics) in the game...against a solid+ run defense -- so, he never stood a chance. I think of Foreman, for 2025, as the Kareem Hunt/24 story...no one cares all preseason, then an injury hits in-season and Foreman gets the call and steps in and becomes a useful RB1/2 for some team in desperate need.
Rookie Jacob Kibodi (5-24-0, 1-15-0/3) caught my eye in the 2024 preseason...a solid, big/physical RB (6’0”/218) who can be a grinder RB someday but is likely to be a journeyman hoping for a few breaks to get a real chance to shine some season. Nothing imminent or overly hopeful for Dynasty.
-- Jamari Thrash (0-0-0/1) had no stat line of note, but I will remember that one target...a 30+ yard TD catch that just as he crossed the goal line with the ball, the defender punched it out late after Thrash secured the catch, took 2-3 steps crossing the goal line...and it was initially called a TD. The review was very close/inconclusive...so the TV people thought it was a TD or thought that it would be deemed inconclusive and stick with the call on the field -- but of course they reversed it with one of the most befuddling replay decisions of 2024 season. Why do I care...
1) I like Jamari Thrash; I think he’s got a real future in the NFL. I would have like to seen him have a moment to end the season.
2) I pitched him as a long shot bet potential for a TD at +1400 odds (but I didn’t personally play it)...some of you would have cashed that bet, but the NFL replay wonks stole it from you.
Snap Counts of Interest:
56 = Jeudy
56= Elijah Moore
32 = Thrash
39 = Foreman
17 = Kibodi
49 = D Henry
15 = Keaton
05 = Ali
55 = Andrews
50 = Bateman
43 = Likely
15 = Tez Walker
14 = Zay
