Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.
SUN 1/12/2025
(8:46amET)
-- A quick reaction to the Saturday playoff games…
LAC at HOU
The Chargers came out firing on all cylinders in this game...a deep drive right away, a pick on the very first Houston offensive play, and then another scoring drive -- but instead of the scoring drives being TDs, the Chargers 2024 did what they do, tried to run the ball like they were good at it...and failed, and settled for field goals.
The Chargers had Houston on the ropes right away, but they couldn’t put them away...they let Houston hang around, and the Texans had a pure-luck-play near their own goal line that got a late 1st-half drive sparked that led to a TD...and from then on Houston took the momentum and just beat down the Chargers down from there. In a battle of sloppy teams, the less sloppy team won. Houston is in trouble next week, whoever they face.
All I cared about was my big (for me) bet on Derius Davis OVER 4.5 receiving yards. I should know better than to violate my ‘rules’ of not getting too far out on any one particular Prop bet because anything can happen, and NFL coaches are ridiculous. Davis ended with 4.0 receiving yards...a lost 2 yards on a 2-yard gain early in the game, called back for a penalty, cost me/many of us dearly.
We needed more Quentin Johnston, apparently...0 catches on 5 targets...probably 1-2-3 drops classified in there. Someone is going to have to explain to me the coaching genius of Jim Harbaugh. This should’ve been a layup win...instead, it was an embarrassing loss. Their WR group aside from the excellent Ladd...2 catches for 14 yards on 10 targets, collectively. They did absolutely nothing to address this all season, and it came back to bite them.
PIT at BAL
Another chapter in the book of...Things that happen because of Derrick Henry.
I wish all those media highlight chasers who voted Lamar 1st-team All-Pro and (I’m sure) for MVP would consider this game as a microcosm for this season -- Lamar is good, but Derrick Henry is what is taking the Ravens offense/team to a whole other level. The fear of Henry opens up an entire world of possibilities for everyone else.
The Ravens may ride Henry all the way to the Super Bowl, if they’re not careful. There’s always a fear, and it has happened numerous times over the season, that the Ravens get too cute and take Henry out of the game a bunch (for Justice Hill) and it starts to stall the offense. No time for that in the playoffs, but we just saw a Harbaugh mismanage an easy win into a loss Saturday...it’s possible the same could happen next weekend with the other Harbaugh.
At least we did get some Props wins here to try to cut into my losing Saturday. The Isaiah Likely prop, one of my top props for the weekend, hit pretty quickly...as he led the Ravens in receiving. It’s gonna take a lot of wins on all my other props to make up for the Derius Davis loss. Marvin Mims is gonna have to save the weekend today. George Pickens props also came through. Lost the minor props on Bateman and Russ. Likely-Pickens-Hill wins were plenty ahead of the mini Bateman-Russ losses.
A load of props played for today, buckle up!
-- The Saturday boring (to me) ‘appetizer’ games are over, now onto the main course of great/interesting Sunday games...with the MNF dessert.
I am most interested to watch Denver-Buffalo the most today...to see if (a) the Broncos can pull off an upset, and (b) watch the further progression of Marvin Mims...and for him to win all my prop bets on him to negate the Derius Davis losses...or will I be railing all game about Sean Payton not using Mims again, as Lil ’Jordan Humphrey plays key snaps instead. It sounds crazy, but it happened way too much during this late season rise of Mims, and now is not the time to go away from your playmakers, especially as big underdogs with no run game to speak of.
We’ll be putting in a full day of it as viewers, and on FFM Discord’s ‘Sunday-games-stream’ thread. Somewhere in this big game afternoon, I’ll need my 30-60 minute power nap. Hopefully, Mims gets his props quickly to give me an option near halftime.
-- Coming up on FFM today...
Quiet day on FFM...three playoff games to watch today is enough football for all of us. We’ll be on the FFM Discord for anyone wanting to chat about the games
A blast from the past item is planned to release today, just for some fun...a primer for the week to come.
Any new props that pop up for the Sunday games.
SAT 1/11/2025
(9:14amET)
-- OK, finally the playoffs begin. It seems like it has been a year since there was a football game. I guess I am still ‘conditioned’ to their being games on Monday, games on Thursday...my life had a set pattern for like 4+ months...then all the sudden the pattern was broken, and I’m not used to being out of NFL schedule confinement yet.
The two wild card playoff games I am least interested in...but interested in watching all the same, because it’s the playoffs, both those games occur today. I don’t think any of these teams are real Super Bowl threats, except Baltimore has some kind of hope.
Things I’ll be watching for in these games...
LAC at HOU:
-- Will the Chargers try to run-run-run and play the ‘keep it close, don’t make mistakes, win in the end’ game...or will the unleash Herbert some and get a lead, then go into hiding?
Will Houston do the same, or will they unleash C.J. Stroud and try to win it that way...and we get to see a Stroud we’ve not seen hardly this year.
Think of how great of talents that Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud are, and how they’ve been sports cars locked up in the garage...not being allowed to go be sports cars.
The Chargers were the #19 passing game (by yards.) this season. Houston #21. How can this be?
By passing TDs, LAC was #15 this season...Houston, and I had to double check this, was #25 in passing TDs. Who/why is any team interviewing Houston O-C Bobby Slowik for head coaching jobs?
Defensive-minded head coaches, like DeMeco Ryans...they seem to be the death of NFL passing games/offenses.
Look at who got fired this year in the NFL, among head coaches...
Dennis Allen = ex-Def. Coord.
Robert Saleh = ex-Def. Coord.
Jarod Mayo = ex-Defensive player in the NFL.
Antonio Pierce = ex-Defensive player in the NFL, ex Def. Coord. in college
Matt Eberflus = ex-Def. Coord.
Doug Pederson = ex Off. Coord. (the only offensive background coach)...but from the poisoned Andy Reid ‘tree’...Pederson-Nagy-Bieniemy-Kafta
On the bubble but retained = ex Off. Coord.’s Brian Daboll, Shane Steichen, Brian Callahan
Not hired, chased away to college = ex- Def. Coord. Bill Belichick
Why would anyone hire Rex Ryan, Robert Saleh, Vance Joseph...or even Aaron Glenn for that matter? Among other D-C names? But some teams will...likely the Northeast/Midwest teams who can’t attract any real offensive minds.
Where was I? Oh...which head coach, in the LAC-HOU game, will break their pattern and try to win instead of playing not-to-lose.
It’s why Dan Campbell is such an interesting enigma to the NFL...he plays to win/is not afraid to lose...he’s more afraid of not playing to win. He is the total opposite of 28-30+ NFL coaches in the NFL.
PIT at BAL:
I am assuming a blowout, in this OTHER battle of defensive minded head coaches. One team has the luxury of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry...and it’s DH that is the exception to the rule and has turned around the offense, and Lamar. The Ravens were 2023’s #21 passing game...now 2024’s #7 passing game (by yards). All teams plan for Henry/are afraid of Henry...thus everything else opens up.
It’s why I said Derrick Henry was the Tom Brady, in free agency, for defensive minded head coaches/most all NFL head coaches who desire run games and defense...and yet what do the Ravens do too often all season -- rotate Henry out for Justice Hill and telegraph (a pass play likely) what they’re doing. The more snaps Henry plays, the more likely Baltimore wins...and keeps winning.
The Steelers are going to counter with a fading away Arthur Smith offense, the worst lead RB in the league (Najee), a flaky mega-talent #1 WR (Pickens), and a safe passing QB (Russ). I just don’t see how the Steelers can hang in this game -- or do they try to get ‘wacky’ on play calls, break their pattern, because they know straight up, they’ll get their arses kicked here?
-- However it is you will watch the games today, enjoy! Football is finally back.
Betting subscribers: I’ll be on the FFM Discord with (likely) our usuals chatting and complaining about the game, and our bets on said things.
Meet me at the ‘Saturday-games-stream’ thread/area.
-- Coming up on FFM today...
Light day/weekend with the playoffs going.
My betting portfolio update will post today pre-kick.
A blast from the past item is planned to release this weekend.
I will report out on every playoff game this upcoming week, like the usual game reports in-season.
Next week will also be the debut of the long-form NFL Draft scouting reports...Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward will be the first releases of A LOT of scouting reports to come this offseason.
FRI 1/10/2025
(8:34amET)
-- I’m starting to get cranked up for the 2025 NFL Draft scouting season. I looked over a wave of players this week. Senior Bowl RBs and the top prospects among the consensus have been the order of the week so far. The first full blown scouting reports will be out next week (I project), and the Senior Bowl preview scouting daily series, position-by-position, will launch in a week+.
I even listened to an ESPN Mel Kiper v. Field Yates mock draft discussion while doing some chores...I just randomly decided to listen to them to see what ‘they’ are talking about.
The one interesting thing that came of their discussion, something that I hadn’t started thinking about yet, was one of them posed the question of ‘Who is the best QB (in the draft)?’ -- if you consider Shedeur Sanders, Cam Ward, and the wild card/hypothetical name...J.J. McCarthy...from the perspective of -- would you rather have and/or what would you give up in trade for McCarthy in this mix? Their take was discussing a hypothetical JJM trade for like the #15 or #20 overall pick in trade debates.
My thought was loftier...I wonder, if I were Tennessee’s new GM, would I trade the #1 for McCarthy, hypothetically?
Some of the QB draft discussion, in this new era, needs to include ‘gettable’ (if they are truly available) QBs like McCarthy...or Free Agent Sam Darnold (if he is)...or maybe Aaron Rodgers...or Anthony Richardson or perhaps Bryce Young?
This draft year is going to be wild...because we’re hitting that saturation point in the NFL...too many good players flooding in from college...and so ‘where can they all go’? Will they get buried, or pushed, or split up touches or snaps on their new team? Fantasy Football scouting and strategy is about to get a whole lot more complex.
Finally, this week, I can feel my mind shedding the 2024 season...and starting to get excited, geared up for/about the 2025 NFL Draft.
-- Bill Belichick update...now the rumors on him have turned into several teams reaching out to him to leave UNC to come coach for them.
Again, I say...all of these teams could’ve met with him many weeks ago. No team is shocked that they fired their head coach...they knew they were gonna pull the plug a month+ ago on Pederson-Pierce. Some teams had already fired their coach midseason (CHI, NO, NYJ). So, if the NFL was SO interested in Belichick -- why wouldn’t they already be talking to Belichick about his interest in coaching weeks ago? He was sitting around available for anyone to talk to.
I’m not paying any real attention to this dumb story, but I would like it if some NFL reporter would simply ask these ‘teams’, or ask their own selves...why didn’t they reach out to Belichick weeks and months ago? If they followed that logic they wouldn’t run with this totally fake news, dumb report. The NFL Network person who first reported should be investigated.
Belichick ain’t leaving UNC high and dry in a month after committing to them...he wouldn’t be that stupid or ruthless. He has no reason to be. Coach in peace in college for a year or two and groom your son to get the job after you leave.
Then I read this article, and I knew all the rumors about it were B.S. But I am putting this article link here not only for some confirmation of the nonsense of the rumor -- buried within this article is some very interesting, disparaging words by Mike Lombardi...words that ring like a shotgun blast to the NFL. See if you think the same...
-- Just some non-football stuff...
I just finished watching Squid Game 2...and I’m ready to give a quick review, in case you were thinking like me at the release of season 2 late last year.
I loved Squid Game 1. I didn’t think I would, at the time. I put it off for like 1-2 years with people telling me I’d love it. So many people loved it, I was worried it wouldn’t live up to the hype...but I eventually watched it and loved it. Couldn’t wait until Squid Game 2 came out, like a lot of people.
When Squid Game 2 got released, I heard a bunch of negatives/bad reviews/disappointment...which made me worry. It’s hard to follow up on a great initial series/season with another great storyline. From what I had read, the creator wasn’t thinking there would be a Squid Game 2...he didn’t believe that Squid Game 1 would be such a worldwide hit. So, the creator got a lot of money (and time) to figure out a new, cohesive storyline for Squid Game 2.
But I wanted to see Squid Game 2 for myself. My expectations were shaky. The first episode was ‘meh’, and I thought...oh, boy I knew this was gonna be tough to follow up on...the online commenters must have been right. However, as I pushed through to the next episodes, it started getting better...and as I finished the 7-show season this week, I gotta say...it was pretty good. Not as good as Squid Game 1, but it was gonna be nearly impossible to top that...but I thought they really did a great job with Squid Game 2 to create a wildly interesting, entangled story line tied to the 1st season story line.
If you loved Squid Game 1 but were on the fence for Squid Game 2...stick with it/watch it...get past the first 1.5 episodes (that are necessary to set up for what’s about to happen). I think you’ll enjoy it. Some really nice twists in this #2.
-- Coming Up on FFM
AFC-NFC playoff game predictions.
Wild Card week projections update
Any betting updates.
Anything else that pops up.
====================
THU 1/9/2025
(8:16amET)
-- We shot a Bet The Close Podcast last night...2+ hours of playoff betting goodness. It’s being edited and prepped for private release today for the Betting Subscribers. Then Friday it will be free-released to the public.
Likely release time: MiddayET, lunch time approx.
-- This story...the Brady and Belichick and Raiders coaching story. Maybe, I’ll be proven a fool...but I don’t believe for one second that Tom Brady reached out to Bill Belichick to see if he wanted to leave UNC and come to the Raiders. The reports on that, to me, are ludicrous. The fact that NFL Network news byte was even allowed to be released deserves some investigation into the reporter.
The report was: Brady wanted to know “what it would take” to lure Belichick away from the University of North Carolina job he took a few weeks ago.
As a joke between them...maybe. But taken seriously/taken as-is -- think of how utterly stupid and/or impossible that it really happened...
You’re telling me that approximately four weeks ago, Bill Belichick took the UNC job without any idea that the Raiders job would/might be open soon AND that he would have had no idea that Brady would want him in as coach?
Do you think it just dawned on Mark Davis (and Brady), in Week 18, that Antonio Pierce was a failure and only decided to fire him a couple days ago? Mark Davis, with Bill Belichick out there available all year to talk to...you’re telling me Davis never thought to ask Brady to quietly see if Belichick would be interested in the LV job months ago? Or that Brady didn’t go to Davis at any point this year and say...hey, I can get Bill in here, just say the word. Or that Brady, if he wanted to, wasn’t pushing Belichick for months/weeks this season?
And/Or...am I supposed to believe that Belichick wanted back into NFL coaching SO bad, he hadn’t already picked up the phone to talk to Brady about the Raiders job...if that’s what Bill wanted?
I know NFL owners and execs are some of the worst businesspeople ever on the planet, as 99% of them have NO real training or experience (or acumen) in business or ever run a real business...but there’s no Davis or Brady or Belichick could’ve been this stupid...it’s not the way basic business or networking works. If the Raiders, Brady and/or the owner, wanted Belichick -- they would’ve talked a while ago and then been quietly working out a deal already behind the scenes. It’s not like Antonio Pierce failing was a giant surprise.
Hell, the Raiders could’ve fired Pierce after his 10th loss in a row this season, which was the same week Belichick took the UNC job, and created the opening and made a deal with Bill before the season even ended...if they REALLY wanted to get Belichick.
I’m not sure Brady would even want to ‘manage’ Belichick...nor would I believe that Belichick would want to have Brady as his manager/supervisor...but that’s just a side conjecture, by me. Do we not remember how Belichick screwed Brady, or tried to, at the end of their Patriots time together? Didn’t want Brady...he wanted Garoppolo...he wanted to move on to someone else at QB. You think Brady forgets those things?
The whole thing makes entirely NO SENSE at all form so many angles.
Ben Johnson is going to be the prime candidate here, but they would (likely) never reach out to him in season...but Belichick, they could’ve talked to any day they wanted. I think Johnson will either coach Las Vegas or New Orleans in 2025...dome teams. I suspect Johnson would choose New Orleans to have more control, and be in an easier division...for a team Dan Campbell has ties to. Among many ‘issues’, any coach going to Vegas is going to have to take on ‘friends of Brady’ on the coaching staff, but maybe Johnson would be OK with that. The Vegas coach gets to go against Reid-Payton-Harbaugh in the years to come...not ideal.
I think Johnson is going to:
#1 New Orleans
#2 Las Vegas
#3 Back to Detroit as O-C.
He’s not taking a job with an outdoor stadium Northeastern or Midwestern team...unless they pay him so much money he can’t turn it down. But he should get good money from anywhere...he is the prized jewel of this class. Unless he interviews terribly...which is the biggest crime of all...not whether you can coach the game or roster well, but whether the owner ‘likes you’ in an interview.
Interviewing for an NFL head coaching job is the easiest interview ever. Just say you want to change the culture and bring a winning tradition back to ____ (your team name here), wear a suit/tie with the team colors a part of it, reference your admiration for some of the best players from ____ team’s past, and talk about playing disciplined football with no penalties or turnovers ever. BINGO, you got the job!
-- Betting ROI’s for 2024 season...
I tallied up my various returns for the 2024 betting season, and DraftKings has graciously dumped all my money due into my account this week. Here, to the best of my accounting (which is a pain in the @$$...I need a volunteer betting accountant to take a full-time side job to input all my plays each day/week), are my results on a ROI/Return on Investment basis...
+7.9% = Offseason bets (on like win total over/under, Player awards, Player season totals, etc.) -- *and this is the WORST-CASE percentage. It’s assuming all my Conference winner bets, Super Bowl winner bets ahead, or DPOY bets, etc., all lose. I took the expenses on it but didn’t give myself any wins. I could go 10%+ here in the end.
+9.3% = All ATS bets. A (42-42) record from the best I can tell. Really, I think I had a negative ROI...I made a few big bets at the end of the season to hedge against some of my season long win total bets that were coming down to the wire with the two teams facing each other in a game that would determine the season long bet outcome..bets I would not have made otherwise, and they were bigger bets (hedges)...and I won both of them. .
I only bet ATS more for fun and for the challenge, because I cannot consistently beat 50-55% ATS. And I do much better in all the other phases, I just don’t want to waste time trying to master this...because I haven’t been able to for 10+ years.
24.1% = Player Prop Bets In-season. Why should I bang my head against the wall on ATS betting, when I can kill it on Props? I stick to my wheelhouse.
40.8% = Total ROI. When I take my simple money deposited to start my account in 2024 vs. the money I had after Week 18 ended/the season ended...I was up 40.8%.
Why the difference?
What I didn’t account for above, because it took so long/was arduous to do is -- to try to log in all my Player Prop Parlays, nor did I factor in here the promos and/or free bets I got from DraftKings along the way.
I made 1,149 individual Player Prop bets this season...and 199 preseason/offseason bets on teams and players and 86 ATS game bets. Many of the parlays I played, I played WITH the Round Robin option (which was lucrative)...there were so many little long shot and legit parlays that I swung for the fences on...I couldn’t count them all, but they (and the Round Robin option) make up the surge of the overall return + the free bets and promos I received (minor). Honestly, I didn’t realize I hit as many payouts as I did on Round Robin. I know one week I had a 6-leg player Prop parlay and 5-of-6 hit, so I lost the big payout, but got the nice payouts on the Round Robin of any combination of 5, and 4, and 3, and 2 that did clean up. I hit a number of ‘just one away’ parlays, that the Round Robin strategy helped cover or profit on.
I placed my first bets on 4/18/24 (the Rams to be OVER 8.5 wins, and Derrick Henry to be OVER 10.5 rushing TDs). My stated goal for tracking my bets closer (and betting more $ this year) was to test to see if I could beat the S&P500. On 4/18, the S&P500 opened at 5,011...it ended the year at 5,881.
17.4% = The S&P 500 from April 18 to Dec. 31st. 2024
Mission.
Accomplished.
The good news = Many of the Betting subscribers had a very profitable year following my bets. I don’t tell you what YOU should play, I just share what I’m playing and how much, and what I am considering during a week. I don’t give mandates or advice...I just state what I’m doing/looking at...and you get to cheat off my paper on the test if you want.
The (not so) bad news = I’m pretty sure I deserve a raise for this kind of return! We’ll see how much the new season Betting subscriptions will be – come late February 2025! The Betting Subscriptions are set to run on a timeline of March/April (draft betting, early preseason betting) through the Super Bowl. More info on the new Betting season after the Super Bowl.
-- Coming Up on FFM today...
The BTC YouTube Podcast released to the Betting Subscribers THU/today, to take advantage of the lines you like...then it goes public to the world FRI.
Week 18 Game Report (DEN-KC)
My AFC Wild Card Round. and ahead, predictions, with commentary (NFC on Friday)
Wild Card week player Projections update
=================
WED 1/8/2025
(8:33amET)
-- Antonio Pierce got the much-deserved axe yesterday...which makes me wonder even more how much Tom Brady is going to be involved in running the Raiders. The next piece of the puzzle would be seeing Brady resign from broadcasting to focus on team management. He doesn’t have to, because Mark Davis is likely to listen to him no matter what...because it’s cool being friends with Tom Brady. I just think it’s Peyton and Eli Manning levels of arrogance (like they used to interject themselves 4-5+ years ago) trying to have influence over teams without really doing any football personnel or management work in order to do so...influencing owners while they simultaneously work as broadcasters, do commercials, and run outside businesses and charities...and play golf and workout. They have no business trying to also ‘run a football team’ on the side.
At least the Mannings had the ‘Manning Academy’ to know something 1st-hand on the QB’s character. What does Tom Brady know about the 2025 QB class...or the 2024 class? How does Brady know what makes a good coach? Brady basically had two NFL head coaches in his life. He thinks Josh McDaniels is a great coaching prospect. He’s close friends with Gronk. Is Brady really a management and relationship guru?
The Mannings, to my memory, have been instrumental in pushing two things onto teams...
1) Daniel Jones pushed onto the Giants (by both Mannings).
2) Adam Gase as a great head coach talent (per Peyton)
I study and observe and scout and test football ideas and information 10+ hours a day in the offseason, 12-14+ hours a day in-season...I have to watch everything, try to know everything. You cannot tell me a Manning or Brady is putting in 10+ hours of day of football study, every day. I’d guess they don’t put 10 hours a week in...even now as multi-million dollar broadcasters.
Why should they? They already have millions of dollars. They are getting more millions shoved at them at their current work levels. If you gave me 100+ million dollars tomorrow...I hate to break it to you -- FFM is OVER, that day.
Why not do FFM part time and hire a bunch of people to help? That’s not how it works. I can’t attempt to be great at what I do on a part time basis. It doesn’t work that way. Information is always changing in football. 32 teams, 1,500+ players are in various states of health...coaches are changing...player’s psyche’s changing with more money. It’s like I work two full-time jobs each day to stay on top of everything...and STILL there’s not enough time for me to deal with everything I’d like to. No way Brady or Mannings are doing that work...they’d be fools to do so.
That being said, I’m sure Brady will influence the silver spoon inheritor of the team, one of the worst owners in the league...Mark Davis. How much Brady will influence all this...I’m dying to see.
Most people think if Mike Vrabel ends up there, it’s the Brady influence. But I’m not so sure Brady likes Vrabel as a football (defensive) mind. We’ll see. It’s one of the only coaches Brady really ‘knows’ firsthand, so his lack of work in coaching study and networking may lead him to Vrabel...especially if Vrabel agrees to hire his buddy Josh McDaniels (but why would Mark Davis agree to that) or some other ‘friend of Brady’...as is usually the way these things work.
Is Tom Brady really going to interview 7-10 different candidates? Wouldn’t Liam Coen (as an example) piss his pants to be in an interview with Tom Brady?
In the end. Brady’s choice can’t be any worse than what Mark Davis might come up with...he of the Antonio Pierce and Josh McDaniels recent debacles.
-- You literally have to be kidding me with some of the coaches getting interviews for open jobs...
Byron Leftwich is interviewing for the Patriots? Then it got even worse...they are also bringing in Pep Hamiliton. I don’t understand how the owner (who is running the team) sees either of these guys as viable candidates. It would be fitting...Kraft deserves it...I believe Kraft always thought himself smarter than Belichick in recent years.
To bring it full circle...how is Tom Brady a part owner in the Raiders, and not the Patriots? Has Kraft made enemies of Belichick and Brady?
Darren Rizzi is interviewing with the Jets. What? How?
David Shaw interviewing with the Bears?
I have repeatedly said the Northeast and Upper Midwest teams that don’t have a dome stadium (like the Pats, Jets, Bears) are at such a disadvantage to begin with...then when you add nutty ownership...as we are learning about with the Jets, and as we saw on HBO last year with the Giants...as we are seeing in New England since Brady was kicked out...as we perpetually see with the Bears -- these teams are going to have a terrible time getting out of the hole they constantly dig themselves because of their geography, on top of everything else. And the awful coaches they are calling in for interviews is just a sign of the problem they have -- a sign of the bad ownership decisions, constantly PLUS no coach with leverage/in demand is going to wanna coach in such disadvantageous places. Ben Johnson is not going to these Northeast and Upper Midwest teams unless they make him the highest paid guy in football with full control of the operations...and these owners don’t want to share their toy or give their toy over to someone else.
-- Note for the Betting/Discord community = An ‘offseason discussions’ thread has been created for anyone wanting to discuss or ask for advice on offseason things.
‘Daily Items’ thread is open for any news items anyone finds of interest to the group. I’m not going to create a new page for each day in the offseason with less time-sensitive (to FF) news out there to exchange, like we did in-season.
‘FF Trade Questions’ thread is there for anyone wanting input/feedback on trade concepts for Dynasty/keeper this offseason.
During the playoff games, our Sat. and Sun, and Mon game discussion threads are open for anyone wanting to watch and chat during the games. I will be there for most of those playoff games.
-- Coming Up on FFM...
Week 18 Game Report/s
Wild Card Round Scoring Projections
Any betting updates/new ideas
My logic/thesis on my Prop bets.
RC-Andrew-Chris will shoot a BTC podcast tonight...and it will release on THU.
TUE 1/7/2025
(8:21amET)
-- Congrats to all of us who bet my Rookie passing yardage leader ‘basket’ bet/strategy this offseason, the anti-Caleb basket (betting either Daniels or Nix or Penix would win).
This was closer than I expected. Caleb was 130+ yards behind Jayden Daniels, going into Week 18. Bo Nix was like 50+ behind JD...and ahead of Caleb as well, but it was all too close for my liking.
I thought this bet was pretty safe going into the 1pmET kickoff, but then Daniels did nothing and got pulled at halftime. It was OK-ish that JD got pulled because Caleb was doing nothing at the same time vs. GB, doing his usual 25 yards passing at the half type thing...but then I knew what was also likely to happen -- I started sweating a Caleb 4th-quarter stat accumulation, as he usually does. And, on cue...Caleb started heating up in the 4th-quarter of his game, as Daniels was watching from the bench out of uniform.
But, fortunately, the Bears stayed close in their game...so they didn’t need to do a ton of useless passing and Caleb fell short. At least, by 4pmET, we had the guaranteed ‘win’ with Daniels...by 27 more yards for the season.
However, we also bet on Bo Nix as well...at much greater/favorable odds. No matter who won among Daniels or Nix, it was at nice enough odds that would bring a sweet profit covering all the lost bets on the other QBs -- that was the strategy. Nix went out and destroyed KC right away...and beat Daniels for the season lead by the end of the 1st-quarter of the DEN-KC game, and my heart was happy for the nice payout on our various Nix at +500-850 bets.
The final tally:
3,775 = Nix
3,568 = Daniels
3,541 = Caleb
I made 15 separate bets on Nix-Daniels-Penix-Maye-McCarthy to the tune of $217 total...a purposeful amount on each name at their odds to ensure whichever won that it would cover the $217 and then some. Got my money back on McCarthy. And the $75 portion of that specifically spread out on Nix returned $620...a 727% ROI on Nix...a 192% ROI on the whole basket, which was the strategy, on the $217 total bets placed.
-- Let’s talk about the coaching rumor mill for a moment...
First, let’s take a quick look at those who lost/kept their jobs:
Jared Mayo = The first firing, a surprise (somewhat) firing. Just one season in/out...Belichick’s supposed anointed successor, in a sense...a former Patriots player now getting treated so poorly. He must have been an awful head coach...which makes YET another ‘Belichick guy’/assistant coach who utterly sucks at coaching away from Bill.
As a corporate business leader in a past life, I judged my success by two things: (1) The ‘scoreboard’/the P&L, and (2) how many quality talents I groomed and had promoted up through the system that went on to success.
Belichick got P&L wins for sure, which is the bottom line...but it’s fascinating how much all of Belichick’s ‘protégés’ went on to suck on their own, college and pros. Belichick was not a very successful head coach away from Tom Brady, especially in the modern era. He gets credit for pushing Tom Brady over Drew Bledsoe when NO ONE else would ever do that, in that era. Pre (the Browns) and post Brady, Belichick was disliked by ownership/management, couldn’t get an NFL job the past two years, and was statistically as good/bad as any other mediocre NFL coach.
Doug Pederson = You knew this was coming, and now it has. The Jags won’t have too much trouble finding a willing, veteran retread HC or super-young/’too soon’ O-C who will immediately think getting to coach Trevor is like hitting the lottery. Oh, how wrong they will be.
Trent Baalke = The problem is Jacksonville is several-fold. First, the Khans are the #1-2-3 worst (execution-wise) owners in the NFL. Super nice people, but super-terrible running an NFL team.
The real hiring-a-new-coach-problem for JAX is -- anyone with any gravitas in coaching will not go here to work with Baalke, and Jacksonville retained him as GM...so, they just alienated 100% of the real coaches out there. They’re gonna have to rummage through the trash to find their new coach.
Their best hope is to hire an O-C who only cares about getting an undeserved shot and is willing to go into the mess for the money and the hope they get lucky...or hire a retread to just take one more paycheck.
Brian Daboll & Joe Schoen = Retained by the Giants. I get it, to some degree. A nice 2024 draft saved them. Really, Arizona taking Marv in front of them, and not Nabers, changed the trajectory of this NYG franchise, to some degree.
But no one wants to willingly go to the Giants to play or coach...so, they might as well retain what they have and not get shut out of the coaching musical chairs to come.
Lou Anarumo = The D-C was fired by Cincy. Two years ago, he was a mild head coaching candidate for the nice job he had done. Now, fired. He’ll find work somewhere pretty easily, I suspect. Someone had to be blamed for the Bengals lack of getting an O-Line to protect Burrow the past 4 years...might as well blame the D-C for that.
Ryan Grubb = The Seattle O-C lasted one year...yeah, it was not good. The quick hook.
Mike McCarthy = The Bears requested an interview. McCarthy is still under contract but might not be soon/still can get fired...maybe, doubtful. McCarthy has a decent track record, but I never see anything that special from him. Players seem to like him OK, but don’t respect him.
The candidates that teams are requesting interviews from the past few days:
Ben Johnson = The cream of the crop of this year’s class. He won’t go to some joke franchise...he can choose where he wants to go, but right now...only ‘bad’ Northeastern-based franchises have openings...and the pathetic Jaguars.
The one place I could see Johnson going to, if he can bring his own group in...is New Orleans. Or, I could see Las Vegas if Tom Brady is going to take a more active role (and quit broadcasting, which is a waste of his time/he’s not that good at). But Vegas is in a TOUGH division.
Tennessee would be possible too assuming the GM gets fired, as well as the HC...but that’s an unknown. It’s likely ‘Saints or bust’ for Johnson -- and Dan Campbell used to coach with New Orleans, so this could be an obvious situation. Either the Saints or return to Detroit for one more run.
Arthur Smith = I mean...I have no words. Coaches take a year off from the HC job (fired or otherwise, usually fired)...and it’s like the one year magically erases everything they did in the past.
Joe Brady = The Bills O-C. No clue if he’s a decent head coach candidate or not. Likely, he’s just ‘lucky to be around Josh Allen’...and ‘lucky to follow the O-C abomination Ken Dorsey’, so anything will look good compared to that.
Mike Vrabel = Not my favorite coach...I don’t want anymore ex-Belichick ‘tree’ guys, myself...but Vrabel had a couple decent years in Tennessee before the longer he went on the worse everything got in every area in Tennessee. With a year off, we remember the two good years he had...and totally forget the abject disaster his final years were.
If Tom Brady is running the Raiders, and I don’t know that he is, Vrabel could be the next head coach of LV. If Brady is really a nobody and Mark Davis does what he wants...then Antonio Pierce likely gets another year, because Mark Davis is a loon.
Vrabel is most likely headed to New England, is my guess...that’s why Mayo got fired so fast.
Vance Joseph = Did a good job with Arizona’s defense and now Denver’s. Some guys are just good coordinators and bad head coaches...I think that’s Vance Joseph.
Bobby Slowik = The Texans O-C...and how bad has the Texans offense been this year? What a regression. Why is he being interviewed?
Anthony Weaver = Miami D-C...seriously? You gotta be kidding me.
Aaron Glenn = Another guy that seems built to be a D-C and could be a wreck as a head coach, BUT his performance this year...with all of the defensive injuries...and that defensive performance on Sunday night v. MIN was excellent.
Josh McCown = Deserves consideration as a heady ex-player, now the QB coach for Sam Darnold this year. We won’t know if he’s ready to be an HC...until he’s an HC. He’s a dark horse for Jacksonville.
Todd Monken = God Bless if some team hires the Ravens O-C to be a head coach.
Kellen Moore = Bad everywhere he has been...gets the job with Jalen Hurts, and now Moore gets credit for stuff Hurts has done for years? Plus, they got Saquon added in? How does Moore get credit for this?
Brian Flores = I would not hire an ex-Belichick guy to be my head coach, but teams like the Jets or Patriots might get suckered into it because they don’t have anyone else to get. Flores has obvious ties to New England/Belichick.
Mike Kafka = The O-C demoted by Brian Daboll this year...how is this guy an HC candidate? Oh, he had lunch near Patrick Mahomes as an assistant in KC years ago.
Rex Ryan = Before there was Dan Campbell, there was ‘the Ryan’s’ with their tough talk and boisterous ways...but the Ryan offspring were not great at long-term team building, but good on the mic and decent enough head coaches...especially for their defense.
I suspect time has passed by Ryan, but who knows? Looking at the available candidates...why not Ryan for these Northeastern teams that need to do a run game & defense and have some identity where certain types of players would be willing to go play there?
My current/today’s (pure) guess at the HC job fills...
Jets = Aaron Glenn
Patriots = Mike Vrabel
Jags = Josh McCown or Liam Cohen
Bears = Kliff Kingsbury
Saints = Ben Johnson
-- Coming Up on FFM today...
Week 18 game report or two
Stash update planned for TUE or WED.
Betting notes update.
===================
MONDAY 1/6/25
(7:57amET)
-- For those rare few who had Week 18 as the title game, the Part II of a 2-week title game, or the final week of a point tally season long event -- the early results from FFM subscribers, clients, etc., is that it was another 50/50 win-rate event.
Really good FF teams wind up doing battle in the end, obviously, and then the curveball of all weird outcomes and flows and players sitting out that Week 18 brings -- it ended up being a random event that favored some and hurt others.
Congrats to the winners and to the runner’s up...it’s a constant, season-long strategy and hustle just to make it to the finale to have a shot at the prize -- and you got there to have a shot at the big prize. You got to play to the end.
The 2024 Fantasy season is in the books. Now we’ve got the NFL playoffs FF version to dabble in, for those who partake.
And, as I always say...the 8-month study program for the 2025 title defenses and pursuits begins...NOW.
-- Quick note: I’ll do a Prop and ATS and preseason betting ROI final tally for 2024 season this week sometime. Spoiler Alert: it was a nice season.
Week 18 alone = a 34%+ ROI on player Props to wrap the final regular season week...once again led by my personal ATM machine...Marvin Mims. Surely, they’re gonna catch up to this for this weekend? Or not...
ATS Week 18 = sucked. 0-fer-4 on my actual bets. I’m all but done betting games ATS. I make way more gains in player props. I’m basically gonna breakeven/have a slight gain ATS bets for the season. Too difficult...too unfruitful to chase ATS games...I’m much better in player Props and the actual Stock Market with returns than trying to predict whole teams/games with a point spread.
-- More damning evidence of Anthony Richardson’s dying NFL/Dynasty value https://search.app/AyVEWKfC5L66oBJv6
I think Anthony Richardson and Will Levis will be cast aside into NFL purgatory a la other 2nd-year QBs Pickett-Willis-Ridder-Howell from the 2022 class.
2024 offseason was the year it became ‘OK’ to give up on QBs quickly. Some with good reason...others just a pure hissy fit by terrible franchises. Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold are showing what happens when you’re stuck with a garbage franchise/bad coaching early in your career.
The 2021 class saw Mac Jones-Justin Fields-Zach Wilson all dumped in 2024 offseason.
Not only is it QBs busting or management knee-jerk reactions, but we’re in an era of talent overload...you don’t have to take 4 years to try and hope you develop a QB...you can simply acquire Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Russell Wilson, Joe Flacco, Jameis Winston, Geno Smith, Tyrod Taylor, Aaron Rodgers, Andy Dalton, etc.
Last night, we saw a game between (arguably) the best two teams in the NFL, right? Their QBs...
Jared Goff...declared a bust, traded for by Detroit.
Sam Darnold...given up for dead, mocked by all...signed cheap in free agency.
To me, two of the leading contenders for NFL MVP...ahead of Lamar or Josh Allen.
It wasn’t a hot shot rookie QB who turned those two franchises around...it was great coaching with competent QBs who were put in a position of success...not having to play for Jacksonville, Cleveland, the Jets, etc., right out of the gates and having their careers nearly ruined before it got started.
-- Tyreek Hill was very upset in the post-game locker room interviews after their Week 18 loss. He basically ended the interview saying he was ‘out of here’ (Miami). What he was saying/trying not to say...but all but said: (my words) He’s tired of losing in Miami AND not getting the ball.
He has a case...not just the ramblings of a madman. He got 3 targets in their biggest game of the season, essentially.
The Tyreek Hill 2025 trade sweepstakes this offseason will be very interesting. He’s set to make $28M in 2025...and $52M in 2026 (which will never happen). He’ll be 31 years old in the 2025 season. I think Miami will move him...out of the AFC.
The perfect landing spot? Detroit.
Can you imagine?
-- Coming Up on FFM today...
Week 18 Game Report or two.
January 2025 Game Plan
Betting Results, early betting notes for the playoffs.
Other items planned for today or tomm./through the week.
-- Crumbl Report for this week...
I tried the Oreo Tres Leche cake this past week. I love Tres Leche...and I love Oreos...but the combination of the two is like...too much. Too much flavor happening all at once. It was good, but not awesome.
Tried the French Toast Cookie...disappointed.
Got the Golden Oreo Cookie...not bad, not amazing.
What do we have this week?
Mallow Sandwich Cookie...Marshmallow inside, Oreo cookie ‘bread’ surrounding it. Not for me. I need to start my New Year’s diet...and thankfully this is not tempting me.
Salted Carmel Cheesecake...Come on Crumble, I’m trying to diet over here. I like plain cheesecake better than doctored up cheesecake...like chocolate cheesecake doesn’t appeal and I love caramel but not if dominant in a cheesecake.
Skillet Cookie...Looks pretty good...a chocolate chip cookie with a big scoop of vanilla bean mousse on top.
Galaxy Brownie...An all chocolate item, which is not for me.
Confetti Milkshake Cookie...DAMN YOU CRUMBL. You’re gonna kill my low carb week. Gotta resist!
Snickerdoodle Cookie...LOVE Snickerdoodle cookies, but Crumbl’s have been ‘just OK’.
Blueberry Muffin Cookie...a sneaky good cookie last time I had it from Crumbl.
Here’s their pitch: https://youtu.be/vtZyRn3eqUE?si=u7XPhrJnA3NCfSyP
