Using the rosters as they are as of Aug 28 (version 3.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and then taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
Notes from Weeks 4-6...
-- Two undefeated teams remain, and it’s really schedule based more than anything, not that they aren’t very good – but the Cincinnati Bengals are (6-0) and the Rams are (5-0).
-- Two winless teams remain: Carolina (0-6) and Minnesota (0-5)
-- The Jets are a shock(?) leader of the AFC East at (5-1)...shock that it’s a (5-1) start. They lead the Dolphins (3-2) by 1.5 games.
-- The Ravens (5-1) trail the Bengals by 1 game in the AFC North. PIT (2-4) and CLE (1-5) are struggling out of the gates.
-- Houston (4-2) has the early AFC South lead over Tennessee (3-2).
-- The Chiefs (3-2) pulled into the AFC West lead this stretch...a half game ahead of LV (3-3) and Denver (3-3).
-- The Eagles (2-3) lead the sad NFC East by a half a game over the other three teams who are all (2-4).
-- The Packers (5-1) have a 2-game lead over Detroit (3-2) to start the NFC North race.
-- The Falcons (4-2) and Bucs (4-2) are tied out of the gates in the NFC South.
-- The Rams (5-0) led the Niners (4-3) by 1.5 games in the NFC West.
| AFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
| NYJ | … | 5 | - | 1 | = | 0.833 |
| MIA | … | 3 | - | 2 | = | 0.600 |
| BUF | … | 3 | - | 3 | = | 0.500 |
| NE | …. | 2 | - | 4 | = | 0.333 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
| CIN | … | 6 | - | 0 | = | 1.000 |
| BAL | … | 5 | - | 1 | = | 0.833 |
| PIT | … | 2 | - | 4 | = | 0.333 |
| CLE | … | 1 | - | 5 | = | 0.167 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
| HOU | … | 4 | - | 2 | = | 0.667 |
| TEN | … | 3 | - | 2 | = | 0.600 |
| IND | … | 3 | - | 3 | = | 0.500 |
| JAX | … | 2 | - | 4 | = | 0.333 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
| KC | … | 3 | - | 2 | = | 0.600 |
| LV | …. | 3 | - | 3 | = | 0.500 |
| DEN | … | 3 | - | 3 | = | 0.500 |
| LAC | … | 2 | - | 3 | = | 0.400 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
| PHI | … | 2 | - | 3 | = | 0.400 |
| DAL | … | 2 | - | 4 | = | 0.333 |
| WSH | … | 2 | - | 4 | = | 0.333 |
| NYG | … | 2 | - | 4 | = | 0.333 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
| GB | … | 5 | - | 1 | = | 0.833 |
| DET | … | 3 | - | 2 | = | 0.600 |
| CHI | … | 2 | - | 4 | = | 0.333 |
| MIN | …. | 0 | - | 5 | = | 0.000 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
| ATL | …. | 4 | - | 2 | = | 0.667 |
| TB | …. | 4 | - | 2 | = | 0.667 |
| NO | … | 2 | - | 4 | = | 0.333 |
| CAR | … | 0 | - | 6 | = | 0.000 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
| LAR | … | 5 | - | 0 | = | 1.000 |
| SF | … | 4 | - | 2 | = | 0.667 |
| SEA | …. | 3 | - | 3 | = | 0.500 |
| ARI | … | 1 | - | 5 | = | 0.167 |
