Game overview:
If you’re a Steelers fan...you might not want to watch this game/tape...or read this report. It’s probably a vision of the future...and that vision does not look good.
The Steelers ran their 1st-team offense for a while, with Russ debuting at QB, and then had some remnants of the 1st-team work with Justin Fields after that. So, the Steelers went strong after this game – a showcase of where their offense is at...versus the Bills playing mostly backups at every position. The Steelers A-team vs. the Bills B/C team...and the Steelers could not do much of anything in the matchup, especially on offense. Arthur Smith, ladies and gentlemen.
We’ll get into each Pitt QB in a moment...but I can pre-tell you: It was not good. I bet this game several times during the game...because I was wanting to see the Steelers best QB, Kyle Allen, take the field and see if he could duplicate his shock performance of the prior week. So, the Steelers kept scuffling with the Bills backups, and I kept adding small bites to my initial Pitt -1.5 bet...got some more at like -2.5 and -3.5...figuring Justin Fields would have to do something eventually, especially vs. Big Ben...DiNucci – and then I’d see Allen could come in like the 4th-quarter and really bring this home.
Welp...Kyle Allen never took the field because Art Smith and Mike Tomlin are offensive geniuses and it’s all about ‘best man wins the job in the NFL’ (yeah, right)...as Justin Fields just kept squandering drive after drive all the way through to the end of the game...resulting in the Steelers scoring 3 points on the Bills B/C/D-team defenses with Wilson-Fields working the entire game. How is that possible? It’s sickening, actually.
Needless to say, I lost every single bet on the Steelers. Serves me right. I never imagined the Steelers would actually run Fields for three quarters and not let Kyle Allen play at all, but Art Smith is the bane of my existence...perpetually.
The Bills were not great here, but kicked three FGs and won the game somehow.
Scouting Notes from the game:
-- Steelers QB report...
Russell Wilson (8-10 for 47 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) started and...well...not good. Russ ‘the Pittsburgh version’ is the same as Russ ‘the Denver version’ – just a bunch of safe passing and collecting fat paychecks. Eight of 10 passing for an 80% Comp. Pct., SO GREAT!! Throwing for all of 47 yards passing while getting sacked 3 times.
Russ is ‘done’ as a good QB in the NFL. He’s not the worst starting QB in the league, but he’s bottom 5 or so...and now hooked with one of the 2 worst offensive coordinators in the NFL is NOT helping him get over in 2024. Last year, Sean Payton somehow dragged Russ to a decent statistical season...that’s not going to happen in Pittsburgh...Sean Payton is not walking through that door.
Russ is like a bad movie that won’t stop playing on your TV. Will someone please get the clicker and shut it off...or more pressing, just change the channel to something fresher, better.
So, Steelers management got it wrong with Russell Wilson as a solution to their offensive woes. They got it wrong hiring Matt Canada as an O-C...then got it wrong hiring Arthur Smith...then got it wrong trading for Justin Fields. When will management/Mike Tomlin be blamed for all of this offensive drudgery? Answer: When the Steelers have a sub-.500 season, which looks like it’s ‘incoming’.
Justin Fields (11-17 for 92 yards, 0 TDs/0 INT, 8-42-0) was a disaster in this game. This was Fields’ moment to win the job...it was right there in his grasp...Russ bombed against Buffalo backups in front of Fields’ appearance. All Fields had to do was go out and storm the Bills C/D-defense and become a city-wide hero, because everyone in Steelers fandom hates Russ...and WANTS so badly for Fields to be the QB. All that was on the table, and Fields blew it...as usual.
I mean, watching this...watching Fields try to play QB is ridiculous...he’s the worst passer/worst pocket attempt ‘starting’ QBs, maybe, in the league. He missed wide open TD throws in this game. He can’t stay in the pocket and pass...he has to scramble to create plays, but he’s not even great at that. He’s sweet for FF with his running, but for the NFL...this doesn’t work long-term. And scouts should’ve seen it all along...but, of course, they didn’t – they not only didn’t see the obvious issues, they were on the forefront of pushing how great Fields was...the media analysts did the same...then they led the fans on to make them ‘beg for it’. They all thought Fields was so awesome. Fields is/was a media creation.
A couple years ago, all you heard was how great a worker, studier, teammate, leader, talent Justin Fields was – from his team/players/coaches and from the media. It was all a lie. It was all ‘hoping it was true’. We were all lied to. All the same stuff that the media and scouts pushed about Fields’ character, leadership, off script talent, arm, etc., and none of it being true – it is the SAME exact things being pushed down our throats on Caleb Williams. These people don’t even have the decency to change their script.
They don’t change their script, because it’s not a script...it’s not an act...it’s not a con...it’s even worse – they actually think these things are true because they’re terrible at their jobs. I don’t want to change them or wise them up...I just want to profit off their constant errors. I am pointing the issues out not to promote myself, but to seek opportunities/reasons to bet on or play FF off of their constant mistakes.
I’m not sure I could go on TV with a straight face and say the things about Caleb Williams that they are, after saying the same exact things about Justin Fields 2-3 years ago. But they only live in the emotions of ‘the now’...that’s how they scout and analyze...and they take the fans down with them. I only want to make profits off it for us...I don’t care about public debates on scouting things. The majority of the people believe what they want to believe...and the masses like to throw in with the mainstream – they like being a part of ‘the herd’ for safety-in-numbers reasons. Let them go fight each other on Twitter/X about the latest rookies or football takes...I’m busy trying to find the next opportunity to bet on or against their erroneous ways. I need them to keep believing what they believe in...I have no interest in helping them change their way – we need them to keep driving the spreads, the odds, and FF ADPs. Don’t try to argue them out of their beliefs.
I am betting against the unholy trinity of Tomlin/Art Smith/Russ-Fields for 2024.
And we need to discuss how to do that for FF purposes now...
-- Steelers RB report...
Jaylen Warren (1-1-0, 2-14-0/2) came down with a hamstring injury and is in jeopardy of missing Week 1. A couple thoughts here...
a) Warren hasn’t looked ‘right’ to me, like his old self, this preseason...for whatever that is worth.
b) The Steelers are gonna run heavy behind Najee Harris (4-17-0) again, whether it kills them or not. They are NOT going to change. So, Warren being out might mean a few more touches for Najee...but what does it matter if it’s more 1-2-yard carries?
Do you think opposing defenses are gonna be afraid of Russ-Fields passing? Afraid of Art Smith’s passing game? They are gonna stack the Najee run because they know the Steelers are gonna run. Any decent run defense is gonna have their way with the Steelers because Najee offers nothing but straight ahead, slow running that’s easy to stop.
The Steelers are going to try to win via run-run-short pass-punt-play good defense and hope you can be close at the end to try and steal a win. Tomlin keeps winding up with winning records, so why would he change?
None of this bodes well for FF output at RB in 2024.
If Warren is out, Cordarrelle Patterson (1-0-0, 1-0-0/1) may get a few more snaps in his place...that will be interesting, but we know from Art’s time in ATL...no matter how good Cordarrelle is on the field, he gets put back up on the shelf for Art to play with his other/preferred toys.
-- Steelers WR report...
The Art Smith ‘toy’ problem manifests itself, glaringly, in what Pitt is doing at WR this summer.
Smith has brought over Van Jefferson (3-19-0/4) and Scotty Miller (3-18-0/3) from Atlanta and is pushing them in this passing game. Those two guys couldn’t make 25-30+ other team’s 53-man rosters, but they’re on track to play a prominent role/start for Art. It’s probably why the Steelers are desperate for Brandon Aiyuk...they think that could halt Art’s Van Jefferson obsession. The Steelers don’t need Aiyuk...they need rid of Arthur Smith...and Mike Tomlin (from the offensive side).
George Pickens (1-4-0/2) is FF-doomed to the same fate as he had last year...major decoy. The same fate Drake London has last year for Art. My goal is to not have ANY Steelers players for FF 2024. If you look at your roster and see that you have a Steeler...you have a problem this year.
Jaylen Warren might be the one exception of a Steeler that I could tolerate/have hope in, but I doubt it.
Hell, Calvin Austin (0-0-0/0), their most dynamic easy-throw playmaker...he didn’t even see a target here.
Snap Counts at WR this game, showcasing the QBs vying for the starting job...
22 = Scotty Miller (3 targets)
20 = Van Jefferson (3 targets)
18 = George Pickens (1 target)
14 = Calvin Austin (1 target)
Does the 1st-team offense and its new QB really need to work more Jefferson and Miller? Yes, they do...because Art Smith is so cleverly deceptive not throwing to who he should...it’s gonna fool ya! You know it works because look at all the great passing numbers Art Smith offenses put up *insert eyeroll here*.
Derrick Henry gave Art Smith and Mike Vrabel a career. They should both tithe to him.
Oh, and Roman Wilson (DNP) is really talented – but he’s stuck in this FF-prison. His future looks bleak off the jump because of all this.
Let’s talk about the Bills before I have a coronary event thinking about this Steelers team...
-- Bills RB report...
You know what, we got another rookie RB here who looked shaky his debut week (last week) but looked more confident and better this week...and that RB is Ray Davis (8-58-0). Much better, quicker, aggressive, confident running here. Not awesome...but was better, more NFL plausible than last week.
James Cook (6-25-0, 1-6-0/1) has a very shaky hold on the main carry role here...the Bills are dying for someone to pair up with him in a duo. Why they didn’t draft Braelon Allen instead of Davis is going to haunt them for years in this division. Davis has a shot to be in that split this year with Cook, which makes this a terrible FF backfield...because the only RB making hay rushing the ball for FF numbers is Josh Allen.
I thought Ty Johnson (1-6-0) might be able to sneak in the backdoor here and be something in the race for the #2 back, but he’s been dinged up and his return here...didn’t look as good as Davis.
-- Bills WR/TE report...
The big news here is – who played in this game, because most of the real starters were kept out of this game. If you played in this game, at WR...for Buffalo, then it’s a possible concern for your contributions in Week 1+...
Keon Coleman (1-12-0/3) played 31 snaps...he played a lot and had one whole catch. He’s not ready for real NFL play...he’s just a big-tall guy trying to make athletic plays...he’s not a real WR yet...if he ever will be. He has hope...but it’s in the future. He needs time.
Dalton Kincaid (0-0-0/0) played 2 snaps here. Why?
Dalton Knox (1-9-0/1) played 6 snaps.
Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir sat out with Josh Allen.
-- IDP report...
Steelers ace rookie LB Payton Wilson (2 tackles) went down, non-contact, in this game like someone hit him with a tranquilizer dart...and I was thinking, ‘Oh, no’, given his bad history of knee issues, but he was able to come off the field on his own after staying down on the field for a bit with a concerned look on his face. We don’t know the extent of the injury, but it looks like it looked worse than it was and he’s fine.
Steelers 6th-round rookie, big safety/corner prospect (6’1”+/210+) DB Ryan Watts (6 tackles) looks good every time I watch him. The Steelers had a helluva draft...too bad it’s about to be blown by terrible QB decisions, and O-C decision.
Bills 5th-round rookie DE Jovon Solomon (3 tackles) just knows how to get to the QB. A sack master in college...but lacking (for the NFL) in measurables – he was ‘on display’ in this one – no sacks, but 4 QB hits and several other pressures.
I saved the best for last: Bills UDFA rookie ILB Joe Andreessen (12 tackles, 2 TFLs)...how did I miss you pre-Draft? Star linebacker for little Bryant College...then transferred to Buffalo last year and was quite productive...but his Pro Day was nice – 6’0”/240, 4.5 40-time, 32 bench reps, 38” vertical, 7.21 three-cone.
I can tell you that his decent 40-time and three-cone do not capture what I saw in this game – I saw a speedy future star in this league. He is going WAY up in our DRD rankings this week.
