Game overview:
Entertaining game...late game dramatics, 4th-down go-for-it key conversions, the Bengals with a chance to win it late but halted short...the crowd pretty raucous...Joe Burrow started. It was a fun game to watch, but once Burrow went out the play declined, as you’d expect, but credit the home crowd...they were into this game.
Both teams fought well with each other here. A good effort game on both sides, especially all the defenders were giving max effort...and there was really solid play from the backup QBs. The Bengals felt a step better overall, when it mattered. But the Bucs won the game.
Lots of rookie debuts to analyze, so let’s get into it...
Scouting Notes from the game:
-- OK, let’s talk about Bucky Irving (6-28-1, 1-0-0/2)...
Bucky rushed for a 5-yard TD early in the game, and there will probably be less fanfare when Jesus Christ returns to earth than there was for the football collective (fans and analysts) orgasmic experience of this basic run that we’ve seen a thousand RBs, and even Chase Edmonds, make in a thousand preseasons against 2nd/3rd-team defenses.
I really don’t know what Rachaad White has done to be the single most hated player in the NFL/Fantasy...the most-hated with the most production...but the hate manifests itself in football analysts and fans finding reason to fall in lust with anyone that could possibly takeout Rachaad...thus Bucky ‘walked on water’ for a 5-yard TD in this game and they lost their minds...it’s now ‘over’, Bucky is going to be the #1 RB in very short order.
Bucky had 7 touches in this game, for the following yardage (all runs except one): 3, 2 (rec.), 3, 5 (TD), 2, 8, 5...7 total touches, 28 yards, 4.0 yards per play...and thus, somehow, a HERO is born.
Bucky was fine here. Good effort. Looks like he is running faster than he is, but he’s capable. There are 10-30 RBs who will get cut and go on practice squads who are as capable or more capable...but those RBs are not the magical ascendant to the Rachaad throne, so no one cares about them.
It’s not just that the football people are into Bucky, that doesn’t really matter much to me -- it’s that the Bucs HC, new O-C, and RB coach care a lot...they’re invested in Bucky. They are getting on my last nerve with this. For them, Rachaad is to blame for the run game not going for 2,000+ yards last season...not the play calling, coaching, and bad O-Line made worse by horrific/dull play calling to run up the middle without deviation. Let them eat cake/Bucky...
The problem is THEY are going to talk themselves into Bucky/talk themselves out of Rachaad. They are going to give Bucky every chance to defeat Rachaad...regardless of what’s best for the offense/team. We’ll see if Rachaad can hold everyone off again...but this internal anti-Rachaad sentiment is going to cost Rachaad touches as they ‘try to get Bucky going’...and if Bucky gets a good block, gets a key holding penalty that isn’t called and gets sprung for a nice play...then they are going to chase more Bucky...they got a fever for Bucky, and the only cure is more Bucky. I can feel it...I can feel it in the post-game press conferences, and they have been telegraphing it in interviews and press conferences all summer.
The 49ers’ coaches know the offense is run through CMC.
Atlanta’s new HC has said he will get Bijan all the touches he can.
Jim Harbaugh knows he’s got an ace with Derrick Henry.
No one on the KC staff thinks CEH-Prince-Steele are a threat to Isiah Pacheco.
The Patriots made Rhamondre Stevenson very wealthy ahead of when they needed to.
Everybody in Houston knows Joe Mixon is the man for Houston. Philly knows Saquon is everything for their backfield. Chicago with Swift. AK is so ‘the guy’ for the Saints, and the coaches all speak it out loud (and criticize his young backup).
The Lions management has nothing but praise and plans for Jahmyr Gibbs. The Steelers head coach will not upset Najee Harris.
I could go on and on...
But where are the big Rachaad praise and plans being discussed in front of microphones from the Tampa staff? Is there any current situation in the NFL where the coaches never speak of their #1 RB, but constantly criticize the past ‘run game’ (i.e. veiled criticism of the main RB on the team) but constantly praise the new rookie RB before, and after, he’s even played a preseason game? Just one team...the Bucs.
I say all that to say: With Rachaad’s ADP improving recently (but likely to fade again after the great Bucky TD event of 2024), I’m not (currently) really going out of my way to redraft Rachaad this year. He’s losing that ‘undervalued status’ by the day...as ‘the people’ are discovering Rachaad is/was really good – but haven’t lived a life hyper-aware of the Rachaad struggle with his own coaches. In Rachaad’s ADP range, there’s Henry-Pacheco options...Achane...and if all else fails there’s Jacobs-Kamara-Mixon. Rachaad is not the raging value he was last year when we shocked the world with him as highly rated as we had him.
We won this war last year...I’m not sure if we will this year. I think we will, but it’s going to be a bumpy ride again. Not that Rachaad will lose his job, but he’s got that pressure that no other starting/lead back has – his own coaches ignore him/love his alternatives.
I want Rachaad the 90/10, 80/20 lead for FF...I don’t want to pay up for Rachaad the 60/40 lead...and/or the Week 3 or Week 7 surprise Bucky start to ‘jump start the offense’ situation.
If I sound all doom and gloom...it’s for a reason. I’m watching the coaches and analyst’s reaction to Bucky doing basic preseason things, and I know this Bucky mania is not going away easily. I think Rachaad ends up standing tall in all this...but there is risk of Bucky hysteria drawing too many touches away, and I don’t want to invest too highly in into a hornet’s nest for redraft 2024...why fight the coaching staff with so many other options at RB in his ADP range?
This is a management team who chose Bucky Irving in the NFL Draft...with Braelon Allen still on the board. You don’t know what idiocy they’re bound to do next...especially if they start losing games and the pressure mounts on a weak head coach.
-- And if Bucky-mania running wild wasn’t bad enough, then there’s Sean Tucker (10-68-0, 2-8-0/2)...who I warned this offseason was the RB that I was more worried about for Rachaad touches...and Bucky-mania in this game completely plowed over the fact that Sean Tucker is exponentially better (as a talent), and Bucky’s amazing/basic 5-yard TD run distracted away from Tucker looking terrific in this game...better than Bucky in this game.
If the Bucs coaches are going to try to find a way to a coveted run game dominance, and they blame Rachaad for inefficiency in 2023, now (in 2024)...not only do they have Bucky to push...they have Sean Tucker potentially rising up.
Rachaad v. Bucky, I feel good about a Rachaad ‘win’.
Rachaad v. Bucky v. Tucker...they’re coming at the king hard, and I don’t like that for my FF management. I don’t want my key RB trying to get assassinated by his own management and they now have two bullets they can fire at Rachaad.
Tucker was really good here...the best I’ve seen him work in the pros. He was a really good RB in college but went undrafted due to a heart issue. He’s been cleared, health-wise. Tucker was a 3rd/4th-round talent falling into the Bucs lap as a UDFA last season...he’s now coming for the king along with Bucky.
If after reading all my Rachaad fear porn you want to bail on Rachaad, like from a Dynasty/Keeper sense...I’m not against that. I’m not panic-selling Rachaad, but think about it like this (in stock market terms)...
Rachaad was a $25 stock last year that I said was worth $100. I wanted you to buy at $25 and hold.
And what do you know, we rode that thing to $90 last year. What a profit!
In 2024, right now, he’s a $90-95 stock...still worth, topside, approx. $100...but that’s only $5-10 more gain at best. Last year we nearly 4x’d that thing. Now, there’s only $4+ more upside.
If you want to sell at $90+ and get into other stocks with more upside...or, more to the point, less downside risk...you’re not crazy. Don’t panic sell it at $70 today because you’re all jacked up with worry. It’s ‘sell at $90+’...not ‘sell at all costs’. Be smart...if you want to sell.
I’m not saying to sell Rachaad, but I am saying...it’s OK to think about it or test the waters on it. Last year, I would have smacked you in the mouth at this time if the constant anti-Rachaad news from the mainstream made you doubt and look to trade. I didn’t want you to miss out on the $25 to $100 ride. But now...I don’t care as much if you miss out on the $90 to $100 ride. Just don’t sell your (current) $90 stock for $70 in a to-do list task hysteria. Be stealth about it...try to get $90-95+, or just hold if the only interest is at $70.
I hope that makes some sense.
If you walk away from this with an ‘I MUST SELL RACHAAD ASAP’ mandate...you missed my point.
I’m your broker. I analyze the values of everything. I am Mr. Buy Low/Sell High. Everything’s for sale at the right price. Some things we don’t sell because there’s so much upside to come. Other things...we’ll sell if we get the right price.
I want you to lead the league in rejected trade offers year in and year out. You rejecting, or them rejecting deals...it’s a good thing, not the worst thing.
Email me if you need help valuing a Rachaad trade, if you’re even considering exploring a sale.
-- Chase Brown (5-10-0, 1-0-0/1) got the full start here because Zack Moss was sick, and it did not go as well as you might have hoped. Three reasons why...
1: The Bucs run defense is really good.
2: The Bengals O-Line is bad...just ask Joe Mixon’s last few years of yards per carry, or Burrow’s sack counts.
3: Brown is not a dominant three-down back at this stage of his career. But he got hyped in camp because 11-on-11 non-contact really favors the pass game RBs. He’s good, but you can get the same approx. returns from Pollard/Spears or Ekeler...or anywhere there’s a true split role backfield and the one guy is involved in the passing game a lot in the split.
The good news is: Brown’s ADP is lower/worse than Pollard-Spears-Ekeler. Brown is the bargain of the group.
-- Joe Burrow (5-7 for 51 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) started for a series and ran right through the TB defense like it was nothing. He looked fantastic.
-- Speaking of QBs, I must mention the two primary backup QBs who worked this game...
Jake Browning (10-18 for 52 yards, 0 INT/1 INT) is a nice #2 behind Burrow...as good of a stable QB you could have for an emergency. If you worry about Burrow’s wrist, and you have Burrow, in a deeper league you must also have Browning.
Kyle Trask (12-20 for 144 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) continues to improve...and I thought he outplayed Jake Browning here...looks as good/better than Browning. He might be a bit of a shock on how capable he is if Baker goes down and Trask is thrust forward.
-- Bengals WR Report...
Andrei Iosivas (1-23-0/1) started in place of Ja’Marr and worked the outside role like Ja’Marr. He made a pretty catch downfield with Burrow here. He was with the starters...then gone when Burrow left...that’s a sign...
Trenton Irwin (1-9-0/1) worked the slot...and is so scrappy good at it.
It’s a battle between Iosivas and Irwin for the #3 role, but I think they’ll just rotate those two situationally. Eventually, Iosivas will be the winner...and Tee replacement in 2025.
Rookie Jermaine Burton (3-82-1/4) entered the game MUCH later...with the backups but put on a decent show once in – catching a bomb TD and making another highlight type of contested catch. Burton is not up for the slot role, right now...he’s an outside WR, a backup #5 in 2024.
-- Bucs WR report...
Jalen McMillan (2-23-0/2) debuted and...ehhh...OK...I’m not sure what all the fuss is about.
Rakim Jarrett (2-35-0/2) was ‘quality’ once again, but no one (on the Bucs staff) cares.
TE Devin Culp (1-6-0/4)...I’m out, if I was ever going to be ‘in’...he was so awkward here. He was on the ground more than upright trying to run routes/catch passes...he was like a helpless turtle flipped upside down on their shell here.
-- Bengals TE report...
Tanner McLachlan (1-23-0/2) had a nice catch and run play here...but he feels buried.
Tanner Hudson (3-16-0/5)...the star of late last season for Cincy, he’s all but forgotten...banished to play with the backups.
-- Two IDPs of note...
Myles Murphy (0 tackles, 2 sacks) looks better than last year, but still doesn’t look fully like the pass rush menace he was in college, but he did beat a couple OTs bad in this one and got near two sacks.
Rookie UDFA Maema Njongmeta (10 tackles, 2 PDs) had a good showing here. A very energetic, active ILB that I want to see more of. A Combine invite who ran a terrible 40-time (4.91) for his size (6’0”/229)...but he looks better in reality...but probably a practice squad player.
