Game overview:
I will remember this preseason game for a long time to come.
The game itself was entertaining, for a preseason game...a lot of the 1s vs. the 1s (most of their 1s played, a few sat) facing off early...but it’s not the game play that I will remember. No. It’s gonna be a historical event in my career...I think one of the bigger, early misses in my scouting career might have been exposed here...or it feels that way, because I feel so stupid about it now. More on that in a moment.
As for the game itself, both teams drove the ball down to goal-to-go situations to start the game...Darnold v. O’Connell. Minnesota got stopped on 4th-down/Darnold became ‘Darnold’. The Raiders were halted to a field goal on their deep drive. It was 3-0 to start but should’ve been 7-7 with everyone mocking these two defenses that were wide open sieves...but was it the defenses or the QB play?
The Raiders got up 20-7 at the half, and it looked like they had the game in hand...but then the Vikings offense got inspired/led by J.J. McCarthy, and then the Vikes defense got inspired by the offense and the loud crowd...and then the Raiders melted down with their 3rd-string QB and the Vikings pulled within 2 points late in the 4th-quarter, then they embarked on a final minute drive to try and get into FG range, and they did and won it at the buzzer with a field goal.
It was a cool game to watch for a Vikings fan.
It was an omen for the Raiders, possibly, who just don’t seem to be ‘all there’...not ‘clicking’ overall. Something looks a little off. It’s just one preseason game – but give the talent, coaching, and execution edge to the Vikings here...and the win.
Scouting Notes from the game:
-- OK, let’s just rip the band-aid off...
I apologize to the scouting gods.
I apologize to Jim Harbaugh.
I apologize to Kevin O’Connell, and the Minnesota GM that I cannot really remember his name, nor how to pronounce it.
I apologize to Vikings fans across the land, and our own ‘Skol”, Bet The Close Podcast’s Chris Bilello.
I apologize to every one of you reading this, and to those who read my January J.J. McCarthy scouting reports or heard my various podcast potshots at all of the football people mentioned above.
J.J. McCarthy (11-17 for 188 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 2-18-0) is not a joke. I have treated him as such, from a scouting perspective – and that was wrong. I can see it now. JJM was really impressive in this game...really impressive. Not perfect, but WAY better than I thought he could be.
So far, as of this writing, I feel good/great about all the 2024 QB scouting and grades on the rookie QBs that I have seen debut in the preseason so far. Caleb is not a superman and has more downside than upside...that was evident from his debut, regardless of what the mainstream says. Jayden Daniels and Michael Penix were as expected. Drake Maye didn’t do much in his game, but also did nothing to make me change my ‘meh’ outlook. Hendon Hooker (not a rookie, but 1st actual play in 2024)...nailed it. Ditto Joe Milton.
But J.J. McCarthy...totally missed it, it appears.
I have this coming: https://youtu.be/vAvcxeXtBz0?si=MUldoJfPcBHE89Sg
And this: https://youtu.be/LQCU36pkH7c?si=8buWwkvaZ2LuN3Re
I have more to say on this, more to expand on what I saw...how much I was off by...and talking about the worrisome thing I saw with JJM within this...how do I FF-value McCarthy now...how a valuation change on JJM ripple effects Dynasty/Fantasy things...and how I am reacting on the betting side, since I bet against the Vikings a few different ways – am I going to hedge my bets now?
I’m going to go through all of that in the SUBSCRIBER EXTRA NOTES EDITION of this game report.
This situation/my initial JJM scouting being off doesn’t sit well with me that I didn’t see this coming. I was way on the ‘game manager’ side of the scouting here. But it’s so very important to change paths in scouting when you see the reason to...and to get on the ‘right side of history’ as fast as possible. I want to be ‘right’ (in scouting) first, but if that doesn’t happen, I next need to be ‘right’ as fast as possible. I cannot afford to hold onto a bad hand for the sake of digging in on a previous notion. Adapt or die.
The scouting never ends...and I am not afraid to admit that I missed something.
-- You know who else played ‘OK’ here, Sam Darnold (4-8 for 59 yards, 0 TD/0 INT). Well enough that he probably keeps his job for at least Week 1. He’s a serviceable backup QB and spot starter...but he will melt down in time and is weak under pressure over time. That’s been proven...and I still see his shortcomings in his work here.
-- You know who may have played the best of all the QBs? Aidan O’Connell (7-9 for 76 yards, 0 TD/0 INT). AOC was crisp and in command...and it’s so cliché but it’s so true – he just looks and now plays a lot like Tom Brady, stylistically...no one is the ‘next Brady’ except Joe Burrow, but he didn’t sell his soul for eternal youth and non-injury pact like Brady did.
AOC drove the Raiders right down the field on the first LV drive, most all of it with his arm, on the one drive he worked. This Raiders QB competition looks like it’s NO competition...AOC is the starter. He is fearless in the pocket...you can’t teach that.
Gardner Minshew (6-12 for 117 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) came in for the next 3 series, and he had some bright spots and 1-2 terrific throws...but also some shaky ones. He was good, but AOC was so much better.
I assume that AOC playing a series, then Minshew playing the next 3 means that AOC is the starter, and it looks like it’s mostly already been decided.
-- Raiders RB report...
Zamir White (6-23-1) did his normal power run between the tackles thing. He was fine...got a TD.
Alexander Mattison (3-15-0) did his normal thing...nothing but run slow and straight.
Dylan Laube (4-8-0, 0-0-0/1) was in the game later...I think he was only in with QB Anthony Brown, and the Brown time in this game was a mess for LV’s offense with all the 4th+ stringers. Laube looked OK running the ball. His one target was 5+ feet over his head.
-- Vikings RB report...
Ty Chandler (7-33-0, 0-0-0/2) started and did not look good. Ran slower than expected and dropped two passes. Other than that...nice game!?
Kene Nwangwu (5-52-1, 2-9-0/2) took advantage of his opportunity with a terrific 48-yard TD run...looking the faster/better of the two, between he and Ty. It’s just one game...but that’s how it looked to me.
Dwayne McBride (3-17-0, 0-0-0/3) was a mainstream buzz somewhat last summer, but he’s on the verge of heading to the UFL...
-- The Brock Bowers (2-25-0/2) report...
It was interesting...Michael Mayer (1-7-0/1) was ‘the starter’ as Bowers weaved in and out of the rotation with Mayer. But Bowers was rarely ‘playing TE’. I saw him lined up as a flanker and as like an off-the-line TE/H-back. He was lined up all over and mostly running routes.
AOC threw him a bullet over the middle, on a slant/drag across 10+ yards downfield...but the throw was down at his knees, and Bowers just snatched it up and kept on rolling. He’s an offensive weapon...the third WR, if you will, who happens to be a TE.
-- Raiders WR report...
Not much to report here. Davante Adams was out and Jakobi Meyers (3-45-0/3) played the Davante role...the Davante handcuff, of sorts.
Tre Tucker (2-73-0/4) continues to make big yardage catches downfield...he works a #3/4 WR/option in the passing game.
-- Vikings WR report...
No Justin Jefferson.
Jordan Addison (1-7-0/2) played for a bit and was ‘meh’ as usual, he’s fine...and if the QB outlook here is better, then it bodes well for Addison.
Jalen Nailor (3-63-0/4) is going to be the #3 WR, in the end, it looks like...he’s not bad.
-- The two defenses were not good. The two offenses, early on, had their way...especially through the air.
I’m left to wonder just how good these QBs were/are if these two defenses are not good. I mean...JJM looked like a star. Sam Darnold looked legit. AOC was terrific and Minshew Mania ran wild. Who would think all of those 4 things would happen at the same time. Something has to be blamed on the defense.
The one IDP thing that stuck out to me – Vikings new ILB Blake Cashman (2 tackles) is so good, moves so well. I was a big fan last year when Houston finally started him, then they took it away...but he was IDP $$ when he started last year. Could be $$ again as the Vikings starter.
