Game overview:
The score DOES tell the story here – the Bears obliterated the Bills...and a lot of the 1st-team for each side played early on, of which it was a defensive struggle 6-3 Bears at the half, but in the 2nd-half the Bears backups just ran roughshod over the Bills.
The Bills backups played with no life at all...by comparison to the Bears who were flying around and making plays and having fun.
Preseason games are typically meaningless on who wins/loses, but this one was a moral victory for Chicago...but even more so a moral loss for the Bills – at home, running Josh Allen for a quarter, running the starters, and the Bills struggled to move the ball...especially on the ground. The Bills collective RBs took 19 carries and rushed for 36 yards (1.9 ypc).
This was the Bears defense people hoped would arrive this year...a good first step. The Bills defense thinks they are as good as what the Bears showed here, but they were not. If people had questions about the direction of the 2024 Bills, this game won’t make those questions go away.
Scouting Notes from the game:
-- OK, let’s talk about Caleb Williams (4-7 for 95 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 1-13-0)...
Let me just show my quick notes, then we’ll dig in deeper...
Flustered/confused in the pocket, as I expected.
Arrogant play...it just drips off of him. He’s a diva...we know his background is leaning that way, but just the way he walks or trots on the field and in-play is arrogant.
Really good arm when he’s rolling out and throwing. In the pocket, a different story.
Faster running the ball than I expected, but he’s S-A-W-F-T...so, in real action he won’t be as effective a runner when guys knock him into oblivion one-time.
A defense needs to pressure and rattle Caleb early...and he’ll fold fast. He does not see the field well at all from the pocket...it's a blur. He was double and triple tapping the ball in the pocket looking for something he never found. Don’t give him time in the pocket...don’t let him roll right (which they won’t about 2-3 weeks into the season...the D-C’s who make 7-figures will take weeks to figure out what we know from his college and preseason tape.
Caleb has no favorite WR, per se, because everything is a blur/of the moment...he’s just trying to rid himself of the hot potato.
Commentary:
This debut went pretty much as I expected...as my scouting thought it would go. It’s too early to declare a scouting victory yet, but seeing what I saw in college in his debut and what he’s struggled with in practices...I feel good that I’m on the right track with Caleb. I’m not bragging, because there’s one rookie QB that I saw Saturday that might make me look like an idiot for my pre-Draft grades, but I need to dissect that whole game tape yet...and I will report out on it today in the game reports.
Caleb’s numbers here were ‘good’ (on paper)...his team won by a lot = the mainstream is declaring victory today. Which is good...it’s gonna force their hands to overdraft him. But what I saw...all the positives were really hidden negatives that Caleb ‘got away with’. He was so jittery in the pocket, and about to get sacked several times but he twirled out of it...more by lucky desperation than skill. Half his passing yards came on a desperate screen pass flip to Swift, who took it long with no one around him...because the play looked like an obvious sack was happening.
Caleb does have good feet to get up and move, but he was running in fear...but he ran not-in-control of the situation. He was ‘fleeing’ not visionary running...whereas Jayden Daniels runs with vision/control, by comparison.
Caleb is a threat to be ‘OK’ Weeks 1-2-3...because of his feet/escape-ability (to a degree). The Bears will roll him out to the right as much as they can...on the move, Williams is a talent – but once the NFL takes away that gimmick like they did with Jake Locker, Johnny Manziel, among other roll-out kings...Caleb is in trouble, big trouble. It usually takes the NFL defensive coordinators 2-3-4 weeks to figure this out. They aren’t the brightest lot in the world...and at first, D-Cs will have their defense lay back worried he’s gonna run, so Caleb might be able to operate with a lack of pressure and freedom to move around in his first game or two, but eventually this will be halted.
I placed a little more money on Caleb Williams UNDER 23.5 pass TDs (+105)...on DK, because the mainstream is seeing this as a wild success debut and the odds are improving to bet against him.
-- The Bears trotted out their 1st-team WRs with Caleb, Keenan included. Lest we forget, Bryce Young and his WRs are ‘too good’ to be playing in a first preseason game. He doesn’t need more work.
What I saw with the WRs...
If you’re going to make a big leap on projecting this WR group based off this game, then you want D.J. Moore (2-27-0/3) over the others. Moore seemed to be what Caleb was looking for/had plays set up for him by the O-C. By comparison, Allen-Odunze were just out there running basic routes without any real targets.
Keenan Allen (0-0-0/0) was out there the longest of the group, credit to Keenan, but he was wearing an invisible shield apparently...Caleb did not look for him at all. And Caleb’s style is not good with Keenan’s style...I think this could be a frustrating year for Keenan owners. I’m trying to smartly rid myself of all my Keenan stock that I acquired cheap last year.
Rome Odunze (0-0-0/1) I saved for the last of the three to discuss, because that’s how he was treated here…the third wheel. Rome looked fine, smooth off the snap but ran some half-hearted routes on some plays...like he knew he wasn’t getting the ball, and he was right. The biggest thing of concern on Rome that I saw was...a lot of two TE sets with two WRs being Keenan-DJM...and Rome was gone. This setup/vibe, off the jump, with Caleb’s early struggles coming...it’s not a good setup for Rome for FF 2024. He’ll be a star someday, but not off the bat in 2024...I don’t think.
-- Bears’ RB report...
D’Andre Swift (1-3-0, 1-42-0/1) started and looked fine.
Khalil Herbert (9-31-0) was in next and looked like his normal self...fine.
But the big news was who was in next...it was WR Velus Jones (6-34-1) getting a good run of time/snaps as a pure RB, and he didn’t look bad. He has a good feel for running the ball. Much better as an RB than WR. He’s gonna make this team as an RB/WR/return man.
Velus’s nice showing probably costs UDFA RB Ian Wheeler (5-43-2) a chance at a roster spot. He came in after Velus and looked pretty decent too, but not as good as Velus.
No sign of Roschon Johnson here. I didn’t catch why. Must have been some injury(?).
-- Bills’ RB report...
It was a horrid showing for the Bills run game here...either they have issues (and they do) or the Bears’ run D is really good. I think it’s a little of both of those things.
James Cook (4-2-0) feels like, to me, he has a clock ticking... I think FF people and, more importantly, Sean McDermott is about to lose faith in him. He is having ball security issues in practices, which is a carryover to issues seen last year – and it’s not fumbles as much but more pressing it’s dropped passes. He did nothing here in this game to help get anyone excited.
The Bills drafted Ray Davis (5-2-0, 3-19-0/4) to aid the cause...and the window is open for him to take a larger share of the pie...but he’s not very good, not at all...not yet, and maybe not ever. He’s a UDFA level runner of the ball who has decent/good hands in the passing game but is slow to get open and is a bad blocker (at this stage).
You know who I think might make some noise here, right? Check the Draft Guide and the ‘Deep Sleeper’ sub-report within it for that info.
A new #2 RB answer may come from outside the Bills in the next few weeks.
Frank Gore Jr. (7-21-0, 3-160/4) is not an answer either.
-- Bills’ WR/TE report...
Curtis Samuel (2-23-0/2) seems like the guy, over the others, the one that is getting plays and situations set up for him. He’s the de facto #1...but it’s a crowded, talented ensemble.
Khalil Shakir (3-28-0/3) seems like the ‘other guy’ to CSam.
Keon Coleman (1-8-0/3) doesn’t look smooth yet. He’s not gonna be the #1. He’s going to be that bailout throw from time-to-time, early on – throw it to the taller guy on the outside. He wasn’t smooth in routes...he looked a little skittish, but it’s his debut...so, I can’t write him off for early 2024...but based on everything I’ve seen from camp and this game...Keon is the #3 WR here who is not ready for the big time, yet. He could be good+ down the road, but I don’t see he’s ready yet...not like other rookie WRs are already looking so comfortable.
Dalton Kincaid (1-7-0/1) is worrying me. I have such big expectations...and he’s arguably the #1-2 most gifted TE in the league...but watching O-C Joe Brady’s offense from last year to this game...no urgency to make Kincaid the leader for targets. Josh Allen could make it happen, but he doesn’t seem to be. I ache for Kincaid to be Allen’s ‘Kelce’ but it’s not happening yet.
-- IDP Notes...
The Chicago defense swarmed the Bills offense, and two guys stood out in that 8 sack, 11 QB hit, 9 TFL assault of the Bills offense...
Rookie EDGE Austin Booker (5 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 3 QB hits) was a guy people would see great things in...then see concern with, in pre-Draft scouting – but in two preseason games we’re seeing more good than bad.
Daniel Hardy (5 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 3 QB hits) is alive! I was a fan of his coming out of the FCS ranks, originally a UDFA with the Rams a couple seasons ago...resurfacing with the Bears. May not make the team...but I was excited to see this, at least!
