Game overview:
After two lopsided affairs on Thursday, we got a more equally matched/equally sloppy game, per se, here in Miami...and it wasn’t raining!! A first for this week in a game...a dry surface.
This was a slog to watch – lots of stoppages of play for injuries...from minor to not-good, with several booth reviews, and several really sloppy turnovers and near-miss turnovers. It was not a masterpiece of football execution, but we did get the debut of several key rookies.
Miami won the game and were arguably the better team...and they looked like they were casually punching at Atlanta...not afraid of them at all OR it was typical Miami, taking on the personality of their head coach again this year – just chillin’; it’s cool dude. On the other hand, the Falcons were grinding, but they just don’t have the 2nd/3rd+ team horses to compete here...but they had Michael Penix as the great equalizer/hope...and ATL did have like a hundred chances to really pull away in this game early but butchered most of them – and when they had a bad center exchange/turnover at their own 3-yard line setting up an easy TD for Miami, then it totally got away from them. The Falcons had two late red zone drives to tie/win the game, but they couldn’t pull it off.
My first bad coffee bets of the preseason happened here...I won my 1st-quarter bet on ATL -0.5, but then lost the other two when Atlanta gave away that fumble near their own goal line turned quick Miami TD, which cost me the ATL 1st-half -0.5...and ultimately the game at -2.5 for ATL. Homemade coffee for me this morning.
Scouting Notes from the game:
-- I was most excited to see the debut of Michael Penix (9-16 for 104 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) and it was a solid+ debut.
Penix looked like Penix always looks...calm, quick decisions, mostly accurate, rarely/never throwing into danger. He led a couple nice drives into scoring position but odd play calling and a lack of Falcons talent at WR/TE/RB from the 2nd-team down led to choppiness.
There’s really nothing revelatory to share on Penix because this is/was the Penix I saw on tape in the summer of 2023, at the Senior Bowl, on deeper study tape in pre-Draft 2024. There’s a reason why he shocked the system and went top 10 overall in the draft...he was as good as advertised/what you’d hope for in a rookie debut with a bad supporting cast.
Michael Penix is legit good. Is he great? We’ll see. It’s on the table, at least.
Speaking of ATL QBs, I just need to quickly add that Taylor Heinicke (4-11 for 11 yards) looked absolutely dreadful. He looks ‘shot’/’over’. His #2 QB services are no longer required with the arrival of Penix.
Last year, on purpose, Arthur Smith thought he could win with Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke...because Art thought his playbook was so genius. Unbelievable. We see where that got him after last season.
-- As I just mentioned...Penix’s supporting cast is not good. The lack of offensive skill position talent with their backups is glaring.
The only skill position guy worth mentioning is 6th-round rookie RB Jase McClellan (9-30-0, 2-13-0/4). He looked fine but nothing jumped out at me.
Everyone else I watched, among the skill position guys, look all like guys who could not make a roster on most NFL teams/are guys who should be cut.
Rookie UDFA WR Casey Washington (3-27-0/9) was the WR that the QBs were trying to connect with, but he doesn’t look like an impact player...just ‘handy’.
-- The Miami QB play was not nearly as interesting as the Falcons/Penix to watch. Mike White and Skylar Thompson are not progressing under Mike McDaniels, rather are regressing...they are weak NFL backup QBs.
Which goes to show the genius of the Falcons getting Penix while having Kirk Cousins. Backup QB doesn’t matter...until it matters, and then it means everything.
-- Miami countered the Penix advantage at QB this game with their RB talent advantage...
Jeff Wilson (5-7-0, 3-18-1/4) started and scored a TD...but he looks ‘done’ in the NFL, based on this game. Still a wily veteran, but he doesn’t belong on this ‘turbo’ Dolphins backfield anymore. His time is past. He’ll be on the move to some team in need in September.
Wilson was followed by the debut of Jaylen Wright (10-55-1, 0-0-0/1) and I’ve watched/studied five preseason games so far in 2024 (as of this typing), and Jaylen Wright is BY FAR the best RB that I’ve watched play in the preseason. Wright already moves differently than all the other rookies/backups that have been seen so far. Any worries that Wright would be slow to acclimate to the NFL or was a gimmick runner – he is not. He’s ready to lead an NFL backfield, which has to affect De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert, for FF, in some way.
Mike McDaniels has already hinted at this ‘collective’ attack plan at RB. McDaniels is a run game coordinator at heart. He wants to win via the run...and I think (from listening to him talk) he wants to build a revolutionary run game where 3-4 guys can rotate around and keep fresh/keep punching the defense. It looks like he’s on the verge of his masterpiece.
Chris Brooks (12-40-0) is the oddball in this mix...the power back among the track stars. He brings some thunder to the backfield. If you see Brooks make this team, then you’ll know McDaniels is ‘going for it’ with a 4-headed RB attack led by Mostert-Achane-Wright with situational/depth Brooks. If Miami keeps Wilson over Brooks, then it’s just gonna be the trio coming at defenses.
I am left wondering, after this game...how much is this Mike McDaniels dream backfield going to affect the RB touch distribution AND how much will it bring down the passing game for FF purposes...if it’s effective? Pass game volume may decrease a bit while the efficiency increases.
-- Rookie WR (we like) Malik Washington (1-5-0/4, 1-21-0) didn’t get much workable action in the passing game here but had a nice jet sweep run...looking like the Mike McDaniels dream...short, thick/stout, and fast. Almost a Deebo-like WR for the ex-49er assistant coach (McDaniels).
Washington is one of the only ‘handcuff’ WRs in the NFL/FF to consider, in a sense – if Tyreek or Waddle goes down, Washington, not OBJ, will ascend to a more important role. Washington is not Tyreek equivalent, but he’s very athletic and promising.
-- Deep sleeper alert: MIA TE Tanner Conner (3-70-0/4)...a former ‘big’, pretty athletic WR out of Idaho, he’s been converting to TE for a couple years now under Mike McDaniels...and he looked really good/promising here.
6’3”/230+.
Here was his biggest catch of this game, to get a feel for his movement skills (as a TE): https://youtu.be/hcZ0lwrmEnU?si=dugYZ9GGJNiYcQVX
-- One IDP note that I had...
ATL rookie LB J.D. Bertrand (4 tackles) did not impress – lost in coverage, missed tackles. Might have been a bad/lost rookie in a debut, but it was noticeable, nonetheless.
