Using the rosters as they are as of July 1st (version 2.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
The AFC Wild Card Playoff Round Matchups...
#1 Ravens (12-5) BYE
#5 Texans (10-7) at #4 Chiefs (11-6)
The Texans win 53% of the simulations.
The Chiefs reign ends with a whimper. A season of scuffling and finally the dagger was plunged by C.J. Stroud in front of God and Taylor Swift takes place in Kansas City. Andy Reid then retires, and the Chiefs future is plunged into the unknown.
#6 Bengals (10-7) at #3 Colts (11-6)
The Bengals win 60% of the simulations.
The second road team AFC playoff upset in a row. The Faux season is a utopia where Joe Burrow and Anthony Richardson never get hurt...and in that case, the QB/team with the playoff experience finds a way past the upstart Colts.
#7 Titans (10-7) at #2 Bills (11-6)
The Bills win 63% of the simulations.
When you start the Faux season process disbelieving in the Jets...and when you think the Chiefs are gonna buckle this year...suddenly, there’s a window opening for the Bills and ol’ Josh Allen finding his way to a high seed and being an always dangerous/disappointing playoff team.
In this case, they are dangerous and down goes another AFC South playoff team in the 1st-round. The emerging Titans have their nice, analyst-shocking season end here...with their future bright.
Next round matchups...
#6 Bengals (11-7) at #1 Ravens (12-5)
#5 Texans (11-7) at #2 Bills (12-6)
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