Using the rosters as they are as of July 1st (version 2.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
Notes from Weeks 13-15...
-- Best record in Faux 2.0: It’s still SF and LAR at (11-3) with, now, DET and BAL (10-4) chasing them.
-- Worst record in Faux 2.0: CAR-CHI-NE all (3-11)...these three teams: two #1 pick QBs gone wrong and a #3 pick QB that could go wrong, as well.
-- Buffalo (8-6) keeps their lead in the AFC East over MIA-NYJ (7-7).
-- Baltimore (10-4) holds a one game lead in the AFC North over the Browns (9-5).
-- The Texans (9-5) break free of the constant tie they’ve had with Indy (8-6)...and there’s the Titans (8-6) sailing back into the AFC South race.
-- The Chiefs (9-5), shocker, are starting to pull away in the AFC West.
-- The Eagles (8-6) take back the NFC East lead from Washington (7-7).
-- Detroit (10-4) leap frogs Green Bay (9-5) for the NFC North lead.
-- The Falcons (7-7) take the solo lead of the NFC South over the Saints (6-8).
-- SF-LAR (11-3) leads the NFC West by 4 games...where Arizona (7-7) just climbed out of a hole/slow start to get to .500.
Tomorrow we’ll see what Weeks 16-18 brings us.
| AFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
| BUF | … | 8 | - | 6 | = | 0.571 |
| NYJ | … | 7 | - | 7 | = | 0.500 |
| MIA | … | 7 | - | 7 | = | 0.500 |
| NE | …. | 3 | - | 11 | = | 0.214 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| AFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
| BAL | … | 10 | - | 4 | = | 0.714 |
| CLE | … | 9 | - | 5 | = | 0.643 |
| CIN | … | 8 | - | 6 | = | 0.571 |
| PIT | … | 6 | - | 8 | = | 0.429 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| AFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
| HOU | … | 9 | - | 5 | = | 0.643 |
| IND | … | 8 | - | 6 | = | 0.571 |
| TEN | … | 8 | - | 6 | = | 0.571 |
| JAX | … | 6 | - | 8 | = | 0.429 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| AFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
| KC | …. | 9 | - | 5 | = | 0.643 |
| LAC | … | 7 | - | 7 | = | 0.500 |
| DEN | … | 6 | - | 8 | = | 0.429 |
| LV | … | 5 | - | 9 | = | 0.357 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| NFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
| PHI | … | 8 | - | 6 | = | 0.571 |
| WSH | … | 7 | - | 7 | = | 0.500 |
| DAL | … | 6 | - | 8 | = | 0.429 |
| NYG | … | 5 | - | 9 | = | 0.357 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| NFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
| DET | … | 10 | - | 4 | = | 0.714 |
| GB | …. | 9 | - | 5 | = | 0.643 |
| MIN | … | 4 | - | 10 | = | 0.286 |
| CHI | … | 3 | - | 11 | = | 0.214 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| NFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
| ATL | … | 7 | - | 7 | = | 0.500 |
| NO | …. | 6 | - | 8 | = | 0.429 |
| TB | …. | 5 | - | 9 | = | 0.357 |
| CAR | … | 3 | - | 11 | = | 0.214 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| NFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
| SF | …. | 11 | - | 3 | = | 0.786 |
| LAR | … | 11 | - | 3 | = | 0.786 |
| ARI | … | 7 | - | 7 | = | 0.500 |
| SEA | … | 6 | - | 8 | = | 0.429 |
For more content from Fantasy Football Metrics: www.ffmetrics.com
Subscribe to FFM: FFM Subscription Information
