Using the rosters as they are as of mid-May (version 1.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the new NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
The AFC Wild Card...
#1 SEED BYE = Houston (12-5)
#5 Colts (12-5) at #4 Jets (11-6)
The Colts win 55% of the simulations.
Indy was tied for the best record in the Faux season. The Jets won their division with a solid offense and a stifling pass defense, but Anthony Richardson thwarts defenses with his run/pass ability and they get by the Jets here...and the media has a collective fit that their beloved Jets lost in the playoffs.
#6 Bengals (11-6) at #3 Chiefs (12-5)
The Bengals wins 52% of the simulations.
When Cincy and KC meet...you go with the Bengals, they have KC’s number. And the Chiefs dynasty is running on fumes into 2024...they won a weak AFC West and get booted here and they need a reboot to go forward.
#7 Titans (10-6) at #2 Ravens (12-5)
The Ravens win 73% of the simulations.
The Titans are going to be a very tough, potentially dangerous team as the season progresses – but their achilles heel may be stopping the run...and that’s where the much more experienced Ravens make their hay.
Next AFC Playoff Report:
#6 CIN at #1 HOU
#5 IND at #2 BAL
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