INTRO:
We’re looking back at the L.A. Rams 2023 season, going from Week 1 to their playoff loss and looking back at my 2023 game reports filed post-game and making 2024 comments/judgments on what I wrote as immediate reactions to each game last season.
I picked the Rams for two reasons...
1) Before the season, I thought they were a sub-.500 team for 2023. After watching/scouting the first 1-2 games to start their 2023 season, I thought they were one of the most undervalued teams in the 2023 season and started betting them to make the playoffs, as I was watching them come of age...and then they did (shockingly) make the playoffs.
Today, I think the Rams are trying to be one of the top 5 teams in the NFL...one of the only serious contenders to make the Super Bowl.
So, I wanted to look back at their 2023 season at a slow pace and re-read what I was writing/seeing and see what I was seeing right or wrong about things, and how they might matter for 2024.
2) There were two players that I had big scouting misses on...and it was perplexing and made me mad, still mad to this day. I can’t get everything right, but the two Rams things I got wrong were HUGE Fantasy misses – Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua.
It’s a must to look back at things that went wrong and analyze them and see if they were really wrong or just a blip, and if wrong...what was missed, could it be lessons learned for the future?
And a ‘third’ reason I do this is to give a little daily football action to read about in the deep offseason -- to kinda keep football game play alive...in a weird way. Every day, I’ll publish the next game of my 2024 commentary on the Rams 2023 season a week at a time.
My 2024 comments will be clearly distinguished from what I wrote in 2023, a day or so after their game ended after watching it live and then watching back again on tape after...like I do every game of an NFL season for FF and betting analysis.
So, here goes with the first REWIND team series of 2024 – the shocking L.A. Rams...
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(Original comments written post-Week 14 week in Dec. 2023)
Game Overview...
Another game where the Rams take on a top opponent and play well enough to win but end up losing. A back-and-forth affair in the rain at Baltimore, and the Rams hung right with the Ravens. I couldn’t tell you who the better team was after rewatching this one – both these teams are good. It went to overtime and the Ravens won it on a walk-off punt return TD.
The Ravens (10-3) are the #1 seed in the AFC after KC-MIA-JAX all lost this week. It’s all in front of the Ravens now...the AFC North and a #1 seed, but a very tough schedule from here...at JAX, at SF, MIA, PIT to finish the season. Baltimore should be able to get to 12 wins and take that #1 seed...but that Miami Week 17 game could be for those AFC marbles.
The Rams fall to (6-7) and are the first team OUT of the NFC wild card, currently. The Rams should be at 8-9 wins already, but they have had a tough schedule and hard luck. The Rams could win their next 3 games (WSH, NO, NYG) and 9 wins could get them into the wild card. It’s MIN v. LAR v. SEA to the wild card finish line, in my book. I think the Rams and Seahawks will sneak in...and then the Rams are a sneaky dangerous team in the 1st-round of the playoffs.
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2024 COMMENTS: It almost happened that exact way I laid it out...
The Ravens did go on to get the #1 seed.
The Rams did win their next three to get into the playoffs over MIN and SEA.
But I was wrong...SEA did not sneak into the wild card. They got bumped by surging Green Bay in a tiebreaker.
The Rams really played well vs. the Ravens here – one of their best games, even in defeat. Baltimore had won six of 7 going into this game and were coming off a bye and beating most teams pretty convincingly...and the Rams had them pinned down, but they couldn’t cross the finish line.
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*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB ...point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the QUALITY mark, and 2 times they did not (this current season).
Player Dynasty/Fantasy Notes...
-- The QBs in this game were two of the top things for output in all of FF Week 14, and they played through this rain event like it was nothing...it didn’t rain as bad or as much as the forecasts threatened and it was off to the races from there:
Lamar Jackson (24-43 for 316 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT, 11-70-0) had his second-best game of the 2023 season here, against a solid Rams defense. Great matchup with JAX this week...then trouble with SF-MIA the following games.
Matt Stafford (23-41 for 294 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT...3/9 QS) is as hot a QB as there is in the NFL right now...10 TDs/1 INT in his last 3 games. After starting the season with nine straight non-quality starts (not hitting 21 or more FF points in any game), Stafford has now racked up three QS’s in a row...and he faces the #32 pass defense (Washington) in Week 15. Should be another big week for Stafford.
-- Rams WR report...
Puka Nacua (5-84-0/8) is definitely Stafford’s favorite throw, but Stafford got going a little bit with Cooper Kupp (8-115-1/10) in this game and it worked. A TD in back-to-back games for Kupp, but still Puka is the #1 guy here...but there’s room for Kupp to produce with as hot as Stafford is right now.
There also has been some room for sudden starter DeMarcus Robinson (3-46-1/10)...a TD in back-to-back games as well. Still, DRob is the 3rd option for Stafford...just Robinson got a spike in targets this week with the OT and situationally. He could have another good FF result Week 15 vs. Washington. Robinson looks good but is still the ‘other’ guy for Stafford in this group...like when Van Jefferson or Josh Reynolds would have some moments on occasion in the past. He is not leaping Puka-Kupp but in any given week....
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2024 COMMENTS: Cooper Kupp started heating up with Stafford, but it was Demarcus Robinson coming out of nowhere that was a fresh fantasy revelation at the time.
Robinson didn’t start playing for the Rams until Week 9, and then it was sparse...but caught fire starting Week 13...a TD in four straight games and was named starter Week 14 for the ROS.
Van Jefferson, Tutu Atwell, Ben Skowronek were all now benched. Jefferson and Skowronek no longer on the team in 2024.
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-- Ravens receivers report...
Zay Flowers (6-60-1/10) is still the FF WR to own from the Ravens. The clear favorite throw for Lamar, and by far the most talented guy.
But Odell Beckham (4-97-1/10) is making more and more noise lately. His last 3 games: 3.8 rec. (7.3 targets), 82.3 yards, 0.33 TDs per game...a TD in three of his last 5 games.
Isaiah Likely (5-83-1/7) is the #3 look for Lamar...4.5 rec. (6.5 targets), 61.5 yards, 0.50 TDs per game as the new starter/the last 2 weeks.
-- Rookie TE Davis Allen (4-50-1/5) had a very good game here filling in for Tyler Higbee...but he also had a huge drop in this game to blow a 3rd-down conversion that might have got the Ravens this win. He’s a sleeper Week 14 if Higbee is out again.
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2024 COMMENTS: Higbee would be out again...and he will be out for a while. The Rams signed Colby Parkinson to a really nice contract this 2024 offseason...he’s the new Higbee, only he’s a better receiver.
Davis Allen will be the #2 TE.
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-- Keaton Mitchell (9-54-0, 1-8-0/2) was the dominant/lead back for BAL for about three-quarters of this game, and then he just disappeared. Why? I have no idea. He looked good...had a couple ‘almost’ huge plays. The more touches he gets the more likely he is to break one. He’s still being groomed to be ‘the guy’ but it’s not been very fruitful for FF purposes lately.
I want to possess Keaton on my bench to use as needed if an RB crisis/injuries hit. The talent is there. The treatment is good. The touches aren’t heavy, and he hasn’t hit a homerun lately, but he’s been close.
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2024 COMMENTS: Soon after this, Keaton would tear his ACL and lose all his momentum going into 2024.
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-- Rams rookie Lucas Havrisik (3/3 FD, 2/2 XP) might have had his turning point moment in the NFL here...
The Rams brought in Mason Crosby to compete with him, and it was thought Crosby would take the job...but Havrisik got the chance in this huge game and hit a couple clutch FGs and didn’t miss anything. He’s back in my, and Sean McVay’s, good graces.
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2024 COMMENTS: It wasn’t the turning point at kicker... Not too soon after this game, Havrisik started having issues and the Rams dumped him and went back to their original – Brett Maher. The Rams are in much better shape with Stanford rookie Josh Karty in place for 2024.
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-- The DSTs here...
The Ravens-DST is just like all the other good NFL defenses for FF...it all depends on the opponent. The Rams are good on offense, so the Ravens gave up 30+ points to them...in the rain...at home. The schedule of JAX-SF-MIA isn’t great for this DST.
The Rams-DST has more hope for FF usage ahead...a very solid, young defensive unit. They get WSH-NO-NYG...not a perfect schedule setup, but better than the Ravens have ahead.
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2024 COMMENTS: The Ravens were a top NFL defense going into this game, and the Rams had no trouble with them. A mix of the Ravens being a touch overrated, but more the Rams offense was emerging as a top 5 unit in the NFL.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
70 = Flowers
57 = Likely
43 = Agholor
38 = OBJ
34 = Bateman
30 = J Hill
24 = Keaton
20 = Gus
75 = Kupp
72 = Puka
66 = Demarcus Rob
09 = Atwell
06 = Skowronek
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