INTRO:
We’re looking back at the L.A. Rams 2023 season, going from Week 1 to their playoff loss and looking back at my 2023 game reports filed post-game and making 2024 comments/judgments on what I wrote as immediate reactions to each game last season.
I picked the Rams for two reasons...
1) Before the season, I thought they were a sub-.500 team for 2023. After watching/scouting the first 1-2 games to start their 2023 season, I thought they were one of the most undervalued teams in the 2023 season and started betting them to make the playoffs, as I was watching them come of age...and then they did (shockingly) make the playoffs.
Today, I think the Rams are trying to be one of the top 5 teams in the NFL...one of the only serious contenders to make the Super Bowl.
So, I wanted to look back at their 2023 season at a slow pace and re-read what I was writing/seeing and see what I was seeing right or wrong about things, and how they might matter for 2024.
2) There were two players that I had big scouting misses on...and it was perplexing and made me mad, still mad to this day. I can’t get everything right, but the two Rams things I got wrong were HUGE Fantasy misses – Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua.
It’s a must to look back at things that went wrong and analyze them and see if they were really wrong or just a blip, and if wrong...what was missed, could it be lessons learned for the future?
And a ‘third’ reason I do this is to give a little daily football action to read about in the deep offseason -- to kinda keep football game play alive...in a weird way. Every day, I’ll publish the next game of my 2024 commentary on the Rams 2023 season a week at a time.
My 2024 comments will be clearly distinguished from what I wrote in 2023, a day or so after their game ended after watching it live and then watching back again on tape after...like I do every game of an NFL season for FF and betting analysis.
So, here goes with the first REWIND team series of 2024 – the shocking L.A. Rams...
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(Original comments written post-Week 13 week in Dec. 2023)
Game Overview...
What an interesting game...one that flew below the radar of sexy or interesting matchups of the week, in the mainstream coverage.
I note ‘interesting’ because I believe this was a Rams ‘coming out party’ game. I’ve been pushing the Rams as a legit team since watching them crush Seattle Week 1...but then they started losing games from there, but always looking good to be in defeat/coulda-won-games. Now, Matt Stafford is back healthy off their Week 10 BYE, and they’ve won three straight since. They’re starting to gel on both sides of the ball.
And this Rams win over Cleveland is a real statement game because this was as good a Browns team as the Browns have had all season...because Joe Flacco looks like he’s in his prime, right off the bat jumping back into the game/league...stunning. The Browns were already ‘good’ but with Flacco they are better...and yet the Rams went out and put the hammer down on the Browns in this game.
Cleveland led early, 7-0...but it was 13-10 Rams at the half. Nip-and-tuck going into the 4th-quarter. The Browns coulda tied the game with 7+ minutes left but after a clutch TD to bring it to 20-19 Rams, but the Browns then missed the XP to stay down by one. From there, the Browns held the Rams and got the ball back and were primed to go win it – but then the Rams played about as good a football, especially on defense, as there was in all of Week 14...the Rams scored two TDs and got a safety in about a 7-minute span and put away the Browns – a 17-point win that was MUCH closer than that.
The Rams are (6-6) and are currently the first team out of the wild card, tied with (6-6) MIN and GB with SEA (6-6) under LAR (due to the Rams beating SEA 2x this season). I will make this guarantee – if Stafford stays healthy, the Rams are going to the playoffs...they are BY FAR the best of the wild card options fighting for the 6th and 7th seed. The Rams are surging/emerging under the radar of most of the country.
The Browns (7-5) take a tough loss here, but no shame is losing to this Rams surge. The Browns are in a cluster/tie with PIT-IND for the 5th and 6th and 7th seeds wild card...the Browns currently the #6 seed. I would project HOU-CLE-IND as the AFC wild cards with PIT-BUF-DEN-CIN missing out, but it’s very tight and very fluid.
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2024 COMMENTS: It’s so wild to look back and think – the Browns were so much better WITH Joe Flacco at QB. That last sentence/statement is wild to consider what is says about the horrific Deshaun Watson trade...and what it says about the state of the NFL in general when a Joe Flacco, left for dead the past couple years, can jump in and play like an MVP at his age.
The Browns were tough with Flacco all late last season, but the Rams beat them up and got the crucial win.
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*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB ...point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the QUALITY mark, and 2 times they did not (this current season).
Player Dynasty/Fantasy Notes...
-- Considering that the Rams pass defense is getting better and better...it’s a top 10 pass defense right now in my book, this Joe Flacco (23-44 for 254 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) ‘debut’ for 2023...it was shockingly good.
Flacco looked like in-his-prime Flacco...but remember Flacco was never that great for FF/numbers...he was just a good NFL QB and clutch in the playoffs. Flacco is not giving this job back to DTR...or Kevin Stefanski should be fired if he tries.
If Flacco is named ‘starter’, then he gets the awful pass defense of the Jags Week 14...a possible QB1 week.
The Browns/Flacco are set to face three great pass defense matchups in a row ahead...
#28 JAX
#25 CHI
#27 HOU
Then it crashes Week 17 with #6 NYJ.
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2024 COMMENTS: Oh, and raise your figurative hand if you rode Flacco to and through the 2023 FF title game? You do all this planning and trading all season/year for your FF team...and then some desperate FFMers reached for Flacco based on my scouting of him in this game (and sheer desperation), and his next one, of what he looked like right away – and Flacco went on to have four straight 300+ yard passing games from here...make it 5 in a row counting the playoff loss with 3-2-3-3 for TD passes his final 4 regular season games. Flacco was the 2nd-best QB in FF Weeks 14-17, only trailing Lamar Jackson. How is that possible?
The top 6 QBs Weeks 14-17, the crucial FF stretch...
1) Lamar
2) Flacco
3) Baker
4) Fields
5) Josh Allen
6) Jake Browning
How insane is that? Not in the top 10 during that stretch – Hurts, Purdy, Mahomes, Dak...among others.
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-- Who did Flacco favor as a main target? Hard to say...hard to make any definitive calls on. I mean, this is just one game back...and only been with the team for a few weeks. Considering all that, Flacco looked like he’d been there for a year already.
In order of my gut feel from watching this tape, and knowing these players/this offense all year, Flacco’s favorite targets...
1) Elijah Moore (4-83-0/12)...the most targets, obviously, but the least connection (33% catch-rate). They have history back to the Jets. Amari Cooper got hurt and Moore saw the most targets. It’s a simple line/dot connection assumption to make.
2) Amari Cooper (3-34-0/5)...could be the #1, we just didn’t get enough time with them together.
3) Cedric Tillman (2-20-0/6)...targets are growing, confidence is building the last three weeks+. This could really matter if Cooper is going to miss Week 14 or longer...Tillman could be in a prime situation with Amari out and that great schedule the next 3 weeks.
If/when Amari is back, this story is not a story for now.
4) David Njoku (2-17-0/6)...didn’t look great, but Njoku plays the most snaps of all the TEs, so it’s gonna work to some degree.
5) Harrison Bryant (5-49-1/5)...should probably be listed ahead of Njoku, just from watching this one game. Bryant has been MIA all season until this game he was suddenly Flacco’s BFF a few times. I just don’t believe Flacco will have Bryant on the field enough to turn this over...but note there is some connection here, and that might just mean the takeaway is: a downgrade for Njoku.
I didn’t really see Flacco favoring any single receiver. Moore, I guess, qualifies as the main option for Flacco by target level, but nothing was really clicking with any of them...except with Bryant. Everything was just a little off it seemed...makes sense from it being Flacco’s first game back...but Flacco was making good reads and quality throws. Moore dropped 2-3 opportunities.
...but also blame the Rams pass defense. This unit is getting so good. Ahkello Witherspoon is one of the 3-5-10 best coverage CBs that I’m watching right now. You have the obvious shutdown corners...like Sauce, Ramsey, etc., but fresh faces that stand out these days: Joey Porter, PIT and Witherspoon.
Flacco and friends will find much friendlier situations versus JAX-CHI-HOU.
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2024 COMMENTS: And Amari and Njoku would go off from here and be ‘his guys’ (for Flacco).
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-- Matt Stafford (22-37 for 279 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) is on fire...7 TDs/1 INTs his last two games. He’s been sacked two times total in his last 4 games. Will Levis has been sacked 13 times in that same span...to show a comparison of what an O-Line can do for you.
The upcoming schedule is friendly for Stafford, except Week 14...Week 14 against the #3 pass D of the Ravens, likely in the rain. But then we get #30 WSH and #7 (but fading) NO at home/dome Weeks 15-16 followed by #21 NYG.
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2024 COMMENTS: Stafford led the way for the Rams return to .500 and then into the playoffs.
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-- There is no doubt on who Stafford’s top target is...it’s not even debatable or close – it’s Puka Nacua (4-105-1/7, 2-34-0). I am still in disbelief that Nacua waltzed right in and out-did Cooper Kupp (6-39-1/8) from the jump and Puka stole Stafford’s heart right away from Kupp. I mean, Kupp-Stafford was as good as there was in FF...then in the snap of an ankle, it’s Stafford-Puka and Kupp is out in the cold.
Kupp is now Tyler Lockett...scrappy, respected veteran who has a good game every 3-4 weeks to remind you he’s still a nice pro, but then has a bunch of FF garbage 4-40-0 games in-between that.
Also note that DeMarcus Robinson (4-55-1/5) is working ahead of Tutu Atwell (1-9-0/2) now. DRob is a pro...and the new #3...and challenging Kupp for targets/prominence...and they’re all way behind Puka-mania.
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2024 COMMENTS: This game was the, unknown at the time, Demarcus Robinson arrival onto the scene...and was terrific for LAR down the stretch. He’ll be their #3 in 2024...taking work/targets from both Puka and Kupp. He got a nice contract to stay with LAR after the season/the 2024 offseason pre-free agency.
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-- Jerome Ford (9-19-0, 3-33-1/3) scored a TD early (on a weird, wide open/not covered TD pass) and he played more snaps than Kareem Hunt (12-48-0, 1-0-0/1)...and Ford is 5x better than Hunt – but somehow Ford started, then disappeared for the middle part of the game it seemed, then reappeared strong at the too-late-end.
How they forgot about Ford as the top touch option/best RB weapon is a mystery, but it seems to happen every other game.
-- Rams rookie kicker Lucas Harvisik has a great leg and looked good early in his run replacing Brett Maher, but he’s been missing kicks or late...and even his makes are getting erratic some. The Rams signed Mason Crosby to the practice squad, and he’ll likely take over as kicker this week.
-- The Browns-DST is good, but they’re a fraud like most ‘good’ or ‘name’ defenses...a fraud in that they beat up the weak and get smacked by the strong...and Stafford blew through them no problem here. They do have a nice schedule to finish out: JAX (with no Trevor), CHI, HOU (no good), NYJ the next 4 weeks.
-- The Rams-DST have a better NFL defense than the Browns, to me. Smartly coached and starting to go from scrappy/plucky to showing signs of dominance with a great young base + Aaron Donald.
The Rams have the #14 pass defense and #18 run defense this season...with their trend improving nicely as we go. The Rams have held opposing offenses to 20 points or less in four straight games.
Week 14 at BAL will be a test. Week 15 v. WSH might be a shock/good event of a high amount of sacks. Week 16 vs. NO might be OK. Week 17 at NYG could be very useful.
The Rams and Texans have the best two ‘young’, ‘emerging’ defenses out there, in my scouting week-to-week.
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2024 COMMENTS: I was probably the only analyst warning the Browns DST hot start was a fraud/circumstantial and that they weren’t as good as their early numbers were portraying...and they would go on to crumble in the 2nd-half of the season and then get embarrassed by Stroud in the playoffs.
Conversely, I was one of the only analysts pushing the Rams defensive emergence (while everyone was still locked onto dying Cleveland) from midseason 2023 on.
Studying everything day-to-day in-season is the key to FF and betting success...and I don’t miss a day, every day, all regular season. You gotta know the frauds before they get exposed...and know the emerging things before everyone else realizes it – and that’s my life’s work.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
63 = Kupp
40 = Puka
38 = D. Robinson
25 = Atwell
24 = Skowronek
66 = Tillman
52 = E Moore
28 = D Bell
23 = Amari
59 = Njoku
31 = H Bryant
36 = Ford
25 = K Hunt
10 = Strong
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