INTRO:
We’re looking back at the L.A. Rams 2023 season, going from Week 1 to their playoff loss and looking back at my 2023 game reports filed post-game and making 2024 comments/judgments on what I wrote as immediate reactions to each game last season.
I picked the Rams for two reasons...
1) Before the season, I thought they were a sub-.500 team for 2023. After watching/scouting the first 1-2 games to start their 2023 season, I thought they were one of the most undervalued teams in the 2023 season and started betting them to make the playoffs, as I was watching them come of age...and then they did (shockingly) make the playoffs.
Today, I think the Rams are trying to be one of the top 5 teams in the NFL...one of the only serious contenders to make the Super Bowl.
So, I wanted to look back at their 2023 season at a slow pace and re-read what I was writing/seeing and see what I was seeing right or wrong about things, and how they might matter for 2024.
2) There were two players that I had big scouting misses on...and it was perplexing and made me mad, still mad to this day. I can’t get everything right, but the two Rams things I got wrong were HUGE Fantasy misses – Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua.
It’s a must to look back at things that went wrong and analyze them and see if they were really wrong or just a blip, and if wrong...what was missed, could it be lessons learned for the future?
And a ‘third’ reason I do this is to give a little daily football action to read about in the deep offseason -- to kinda keep football game play alive...in a weird way. Every day, I’ll publish the next game of my 2024 commentary on the Rams 2023 season a week at a time.
My 2024 comments will be clearly distinguished from what I wrote in 2023, a day or so after their game ended after watching it live and then watching back again on tape after...like I do every game of an NFL season for FF and betting analysis.
So, here goes with the first REWIND team series of 2024 – the shocking L.A. Rams...
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(Original comments written post-Week 3 week in Sept. 2023)
Game Overview...
Joe Burrow pulled it out!
No...
The Bengals defense pulled this game out – facing a high functioning offense in 2023, the Bengals sacked Matt Stafford 6 times, picked him off twice, and held the Rams to 1-of-11 on 3rd-downs and they earned this one via the defense – a defense I thought might be one of the secret best of 2023, but they didn’t really show Weeks 1-2...but they stepped up to the plate here in this game.
The Bengals offense scuffled once again, but the Rams scuffled on offense just as much. The Rams played well enough in this heavyweight fight, two playoff teams/contenders here going at it – but some Rams misfortune on an early rushing TD for L.A. called back by booth review, inexplicably reversed to going out of bounds for what was obviously not/too close to reverse...it got reversed and the Bengals held the Rams to a field goal instead and things kinda punch-counterpunch’d from there.
The Bengals save their season…for this week...but they still have a Burrow problem. The Rams have a tough schedule ahead to try and be a strong wild card contender. The Rams just fought two of the best teams in the game (SF, CIN) to a close call loss – barring a Stafford injury, they are a playoff team.
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2024 COMMENTS: This was a national TV game and the Bengals and Rams got after it...and given their recent Super Bowl history it was extra salty on top of the history. This was a gritty, bare-knuckle fight where the Bengals got some minor revenge.
This loss was another shoulda/coulda won game by the Rams. L.A. has, at this point (back in 2023), lost two games in a row against top teams in games they went toe-to-toe with the high-level opponent. The Rams could’ve been (3-0) with two huge wins against SF and CIN in back-to-back weeks. Instead, they were (1-2) with the playoff odds dropping...and we were betting into those head winds.
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Player Dynasty/Fantasy Notes...
-- Joe Burrow (26-49 for 259 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) looked like the same Joe Burrow from Weeks 1 and 2...stiff, couldn’t plant and throw as well as he normally would, errant passes, all short release passing. The calf is still an issue and none of us knows how long/when it will heal.
All you can do is buy more time to see where this is going. Once he’s back to normal...then you have normal, high-end Burrow. We don’t know when that will be. We don’t know how much treatment and therapy and stem cells are being shot into him right now...or if he’s even taking that kind of treatment.
Buy more time via Purdy-Stroud-Stafford...which was the plan last week. Only Stafford may be available to you this week, maybe.
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2024 COMMENTS: I chuckled when I re-read my Purdy-Stroud-Stafford comment. You have to remember...people were not convinced on Stroud by this point. Many FFMers cleaned up getting Stroud before he exploded/gained universal acceptance for the 2023 season.
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-- Because Burrow was quick passing, he threw a ton of short stuff to Ja’Marr Chase (12-141-0/15)...who still looks like he’s half-asleep each game. But he perked up a bit in the 2nd-half...played with a bit more energy and helped move the ball enough to help Burrow score enough to win.
I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet/everything is all set with Chase from here on in...as long as Burrow is struggling then Ja’Marr’s output is at risk. Defenses can cheat more and try to play/takeaway the short game some. But he’s so talented you have to project him top 10-20 until further notice.
Tee Higgins (2-21-0/8) suffers the most in this equation. Tee isn’t a great short game/bubble screen, etc., type guy. Most times Burrow tries to hit Tee...it looks rough. Week 1 + Week 3 for Tee = 2 catches on 16 targets total. That’s not good. But Week 2 was awesome...when Burrow seemed to be improving, until reaggravating late in the game.
-- Matt Stafford (18-33 for 269 yards, 1 TD/2 INT) still looks good going forward...he just had a tough night with a very tough Bengals defense. Cincy has a great cover secondary, and the front had great pressure to make this a tough night...and, still, Stafford should’ve had at least 2 passing TDs in this game.
Stafford has played well; he’s just had some odd luck not getting TDs to go with in the first 3 games. Staff is 4th in the NFL in passing yards but not even in the top 25 in passing TDs (2), so he’s #20 in PPG among QBs right now...possibly dropped by people in redraft this week. He’s a helper for your Burrow woes if you need it. He should have like 5-6 TD passes right now, and if he did have the 5 TDs (let’s say)...he’d be a QB1 right now in the PPG rankings.
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2024 COMMENTS: Stafford’s FF numbers went like the Rams win-loss tally early in the season... The Rams should’ve been (3-0) at this point, and Stafford was so close to being top 5 in all the major QB categories, but he could not get TD passes to save his life early on. Something strange (seemingly) always took opportunity away or they just ran it in.
I thought Stafford was going to be a great #2 FF QB the early part of the season, after I saw how well he was playing – but that failed, mostly, because of the lacking TD pass numbers.
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-- Cincy started to figure out that Puka Nacua (5-72-0/7) gets a lot of looks from Stafford, and they did a decent job covering the middle, where Puka likes to roam, and they actually put a corner on him sometimes. When Puka is intentionally covered, he’s been toast/not open much and when he got targets in tight windows this game...he dropped 1-2 of them.
Puka was getting wide open space to catch short passes over-and-over from Stafford Weeks 1-2, but I thought he could get halted with specific coverage ahead – and we saw that here some. He went a long stretch in this game without a catch before getting lost in coverage for a very late 30+ yard wide-open bomb/catch. Without the last second catch, it was headed towards a 4-40-0/6 type of night for Puka. This may run out of steam from here on in...depends on what the opposing D-C sees/does (or doesn’t) do. To me, it was so simple to cut off the Puka stuff and throw the Rams out of sync...and the Bengals did that.
Cooper Kupp potentially returns this time next week to put further pressure on Puka output...but Kupp’s return is ‘unknown’ at this time.
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2024 COMMENTS: Check out the Puka splits pre/post Kupp back in the lineup...
Weeks 1-5 = 9.2 rec. (12.6 targets), 114.4 rec. yds, 0.40 TDs per game...23.1 PPR PPG (#4 among all WRs).
Weeks 6-18 = 4.9 rec. (8.1 targets), 76.2 rec. yds, 0.33 TDs per game...15.2 PPR PPG (#14 among all WRs in that stretch).
Week 3 was Puka’s worst matchup/production of his hot start Weeks 15.
Outside of this Week 3 games, Puka had big numbers against #21 pass D Seattle, #14 SF, #16 IND, #31 PHI. Even Cincy wound up #28, but that’s because they fell apart as the season went due to injuries on defense, etc.
Puka had a gifted schedule and situation to start the season.
I’m beginning to wonder if Puka peaked (as a WR1) already...or if he’s just beginning his NFL journey to WR1 PPR status.
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-- The real top dog WR for LAR right now is Tutu Atwell (4-50-1/9, 1-22-0)...three TDs in this game, one officially. He had that rushing TD early that called back for just out of bounds a few yards shy, but everyone on TV who saw the replay didn’t think he went out...the booth review did. The next drive he had a TD pass that Stafford threw offline, just out of open Tutu’s reach. He did finish the night with a late TD to save his FF week.
I’d rather have Tutu than Puka right now. And when Kupp comes back, there could be even more room to roam/cause havoc for Tutu. I’m totally geeked up about Tutu (and Tank Dell).
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2024 COMMENTS: That didn’t age well on Tutu v. Puka, but I swear...Tutu was playing a much different/better than he ever had...much more ‘wow’ to his game, and a lot of downfield work than what Puka was doing...at the time...to me. I guess not to Stafford or McVay, eventually...
Tutu would really drop off from here, and especially when Kupp returned.
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-- The Kyren Williams (10-38-0, 2-27-0/7) issue reared up here... He’s not a real lead RB. He can’t be for a full season. And added to his run game issues this game (can’t really move a pile or do anything if there is no room for him to run forward far and fall down) was all off sync with Stafford...dropped a pass or two, went the wrong way on simple routes. He left a lot of PPR numbers on the table.
I’m a buyer if an owner panics. He’s all the Rams have...they didn’t even try to integrate Ronnie Rivers here...yet. I think Williams is going to be a big PPR back this year...even if he splits carries with another RB.
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2024 COMMENTS: Kyren’s first three games of rushing totals in 2023 = 52-52-38 and all three games under 4.0 yards per carry.
Kyren would go on a tear after that but get hurt/out for Weeks 7-11...and then came back and picked up where he left off...with an even heavier volume. I got a squishy feeling about Kyren 2024 just looking back at his 2023. This workload level cannot sustain...not at his size and style...thus, the Blake Corum top 100 draft pick.
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-- The Bengals-DST might be about to ‘arrive’. Facing Tennessee this week is an opportunity to shine against a bad O-Line and low end QB. Arizona after that might be pretty solid too. Then some trouble with SEA-BYE-SF-BUF stretch after that.
-- Evan McPherson (4/5 FGs, 1/1 XP) hit 4 FGs in this game. Now that the Bengals are a forced dink & dunk offense, they move the ball slowly but when they get down to the shorter field, the defense is more bunched to defend the dink & dunk...a lot of drives died for FG opportunities for McPherson, who is one of the better kicker talents in the league.
-- IDP note...
Cincy SAF Dax Hill (8 tackles, 1 sack, 2 TFLs)...so quick to the ball and so aggressive now. I didn’t see this version of him scouting him out of Michigan. I thought he’d wind up a cover corner type, but he’s become a very legit SAF.
He’s currently the #3 DB in PPG among DBs right now.
Snap Counts of Interest:
55 = Kyren
00 = R Rivers
53 = Higbee
53 = Puka
51 = Van J
48 = Tutu
74 = Chase
66 = Tee
59 = Boyd
58 = Mixon
14 = Trayv Williams
