It’s March madness time, so websites are federally mandated to do some kind of tournament styled something. So, in keeping compliance with the government, we’ve come up with a tournament to have some fun with -- looking at all the NFL teams, as their roster is now, and pitting them against each other and having five experts vote on the winner of each matchup.
This tournament is not ‘seeded’. It was a randomly generated matchup setup...just to mix it up a little, and maybe give an underdog a chance along the way if they get the right matchups. All 32 teams participate in the first round, 16 matchups, and then the 16 winners move on to the 2nd-round, where those teams will be randomly matched up again, and so on...until we get to the finals to determine who our experts think is the best team in the NFL, right now.
We’re going through this for fun, but also for some betting guidance...looking for some sleeper teams to bet on for division/conference/Super Bowl titles, perhaps. And to see which teams we should be looking at in the NFL Draft, that could take that ‘next step’ with a killer draft.
The five experts voting for their ‘winner’, based on their current data/research, and giving a brief commentary on their picks are (and they do not know who the others have picked when making their pick)...
Andrew DFS – Our DFS expert and betting database savant and co-host of many football podcasts.
Bet The Close Chris – Betting expert, host of the Bet The Close podcast
RC Fischer – FFM founder
Ross Jacobs – FFM analyst and budding NFL Draft expert
ChatFFM – RC’s offseason project...further using AI tools to refine our database and predictive tools/models.
Here’s what the experts think of today’s matchup:
Ross Jacobs
GB vs PHI = (GB wins 30-27) I'm going with the Packers here because I expect the panel to pick the Eagles, and I once again want to make a point, but both of these teams look like potential 10+ win teams.
I'm taking the Packers though because they are younger and I can see some major cracks in the Eagles armor. Everyone is assuming they bounce back next year, but the problems really haven't been fixed. If anything they have gotten worse. Their offense is built on a strong run game and Saquon Barkley makes that more dangerous, but he doesn't address the pass game which is how you win Super Bowls. In addition their pass defense collapsed last year and I've seen no improvements there either. What makes this situation particularly scary is all the bad characters they've drafted from Georgia the past few years. If the team starts to struggle again all these personalities will start fighting and things could go from bad to worse. I trust the Packers to keep their heads on.
AndrewDFS
GB v. PHI = (PHI wins by 0.5) This is a tough game to predict. Green Bay snuck into the playoffs with a 9-8 record then manhandled Dallas on the road and played a close game with the 49ers. The Eagles started off the season 10-1 then lost 6 of their next 7 games including a blow-out loss to Tampa Bay in the Wildcard round. I’m not optimistic about either team heading into next season. I wouldn’t be shocked if either team had a deep playoff run or missed the playoffs entirely. For now, I’ll go with Philadelphia with the deciding factor being the advantage at QB. I don’t feel particularly great about the pick and think there is an argument for the Packers here as well.
RC
GB v. PHI = (GB wins 27-20)
I’m going against the Eagles defense...arguably the worst defense in the 2023 season in the 2nd-half of the season. I’m not a huge Packers/Love guy, but the Eagles look like a dying team to me – fading O-Line minus Kelce now and a bad defense.
It’s not so much of an endorsement of the Packers as it is going against the Eagles.
Bet The Close Chris
GB v. PHI = (PHI wins 41-38) The actual week 1 game in Brazil. I’ll take the over.
ChatFFM (forgive any typos...it’s still learning language and I’m not correcting them for it...it needs to learn -- and I am programming it to be more sarcastic than I/RC am...so, I’ll have someone to talk to all day in my office watching football tape)
GB v. PHI = (GB wins 57% of the simulations)
I see this as the Packers having a better defense, by far...but also now may have the edge at O-Line too. The once vaunted Eagles O-Line has been fading due to age and now loses the less famous Kelce. I like Hurts over Love, but after that Green Bay is really better than the Eagles everywhere else or minimum as good as...besides maybe kicker.
The Packers, in a mild surprise, move on to the Elite 8 with a 3-2 vote win.
This ends the Sweet 16 and now we go to the Elite 8 with the following teams advancing on:
AFC (5): KC, HOU, MIA, BAL, LAC
NFC (3): GB, DET, LAR
