Game Overview...
Crazy frigid temperatures for this game, but then the Chiefs go out and have one of their most efficient offensive games in weeks, months in the frozen tundra...and the Dolphins did not. The weather certainly affected Miami, but weather or not – Miami was definitely outclassed right away, and the Dolphins just never appeared to be mentally in this game. Easy win for KC over a paper-thin Miami team that has a lot of soul searching to do in 2024.
Kansas City is going on to Buffalo to face a Bills team that beat them Week 14. Buffalo is playing much better as the season wears on and it started with their 20-17 win over KC. The Chiefs faded into the end of the season. Beating Miami isn’t all that impressive given the weather and half the Miami defense was out hurt. Buffalo is a different animal that KC is getting this week. Everything points to the Bills...but why do I feel like KC is going to win this game?
Miami’s season ended in a very dreary way...a loss to Buffalo Week 18 really ripped their heart out...getting crushed by Baltimore before that (Week 17) set the table for the late-season collapse. Getting smoked by KC here...a fitting way for this dreadful underachiever team to go away. You now have to start to question Mike McDaniel, as likable as he is...Miami went 1-6 against playoff teams in 2023-24, Tua isn’t getting better/is a problem, and the Vic Fangio solution on defense blew up in their face. They are likely forced to ‘run it back’ with the same group, due to salary cap restrictions...and when that doesn’t work – McDaniel is going to go from beloved to mocked.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB ...point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the QUALITY mark, and 2 times they did not (this current season).
Player Dynasty/Fantasy Notes...
-- It only took playing in -25 degree ‘feels like’ temperatures to get Patrick Mahomes (23-41 for 262 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 2-41-0) looking like his old self a little bit. He’s been struggling most all of the 2nd-half of the season...and even here, looking better but still just 1 TD pass and under 300 yards passing again. Another cold weather game coming at Buffalo, against a much better defense than what Miami had to throw at him in this game due to all their injuries.
-- Another big game of mostly tunnel screens for Rashee Rice (8-130-1/12). It works...and it works into the future. Even if the Chiefs bring in a DeAndre Hopkins or whoever to be a more true #1 WR...they can still run all these types of plays they run for Rice already.
-- Travis Kelce (7-71-0/10) had another ‘starting to look ‘old’ (for an NFL TE)’ game here. Gone are the days of him just dominating games...he’s ‘just another guy’ but because he gets extra coverage attention, he’s not racking the numbers like before. Teams are content to dare KC to beat them with their ‘dropsy’ WRs, which has been working/effective a lot in the 2nd-half of the season.
Kelce’s career may not be over, but his days as the supreme ruler of the TE group seem to be. I would also not be shocked if Kelce retired after this season, along with his brother Jason...so that they went into the Hall of Fame together...and Travis can go on to be an even higher-paid (than he is for playing) broadcaster in the NFL. What’s Kelce have left to prove? He’s got Super Bowl rings...he’ll be known as one of the best TEs in NFL history, and another so-so season won’t help (or hurt) that. AND he acknowledges he’s been underpaid in the NFL -- there’s a lot of money outside of football available to him. His time to strike out in a post-NFL career and lockdown Taylor Swift...it likely is ‘now’. And his brother almost retired last year...Jason probably cashes it in after this season, and Travis can retire with him.
Would Noah Gray be the heir apparent? Maybe. Probably, but it will be NOTHING like peak-Kelce with Mahomes.
Kelce has little Dynasty value, so the thoughts of dumping him for peanuts...you might as well hold and see what he does, and if he retires, so be it. You can’t time everything right and there’s little glory in getting garbage/little value in exchange...and then he changes his mind and returns in August.
-- Isiah Pacheco (24-89-1, 1-0-0/1) is the heart and soul of this team. Mahomes is the leader/talent/face of the franchise, but Pacheco is its heartbeat that pumps the blood through the system.
Just a quick Dynasty reminder: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (1-5-0/1) is headed to free agency and will VERY likely join the Bengals. Pacheco’s 2024 ‘handcuff’? Probably/very likely 2023 UDFA Deneric Prince...and Prince could flash some things in the preseason that could worry some Pacheco holders. It’s not gonna be Prince’s time in 2024...he’s not stealing heavy from the heartbeat...only if the heartbeat gets hurt...
-- Tua Tagovailoa (20-39 for 199 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) has peaked. He doesn’t get any better from here. Miami is caught in one of the circles of Hell with Tua...he’s not taking them to the promised land, but he’s not terrible either, and he costs too much in 2024 to move on from, so they likely are stuck with him in 2024 while drafting a 2nd/3rd-round QB to be his eventual replacement.
Remember ‘Tank for Tua’? Can the NFL scouting and analysis community ever get anything right on their generational players? Next up for the always-wrong-football professionals...Marvin Harrison Jr.
-- If Tua is gonna stay at QB for 2024...then Tyreek Hill (5-62-1/8) is one the table to be a #1-2-3 overall asset for FF 2024...and Jaylen Waddle (2-31-0/5) will be a frustrating WR1.5/2.0.
-- The Dolphins were totally taken off their game plan and they had to ditch the run game. Raheem Mostert (8-33-0, 1-0-0/2) was back from injury and drew the start, but he essentially split time/touches with De’Von Achane (6-9-0, 3-21-0/6). Achane could go nowhere against the stacked box in the frigid temps stifling the Miami offense.
Mostert’s contract runs through 2024, he should be back for one more year working with Achane next season, but it will likely be Mostert in more of a support/split role with Achane as the narrow margin lead dog for touches. Achane can be a top FF RB in 2024 and he doesn’t need 20+ carries a game to do it. You’ll see his game continue to expand – 10-15 carries a game, but where he will really start making waves is in the passing games via screens but also bubbles and wheel routes and regular routes...he’s only just beginning as a pass game weapon...beautiful for PPR in the future.
Seven games out his 12 games played in the 2023 season, Achane had 3 or more catches in a game...and did so in five of his final 7 games...playing mostly limited snaps in games. His passing game value is going to come into play in FF 2024.
Snap Counts of Interest:
61 = Rice
54 = Watson
32 = MVS
27 = Mecole
16 = R James
55 = Pacheco
24 = CEH
27 = Mostert
23 = Achane
41 = Waddle
40 = Tyreek
38 = C Wilson
23 = Cracraft
13 = Berrios
04 = Claypool
