Game Overview...
This was never really ‘a game’... The Packers took a quick 7-0 lead...and a 14-0 lead, then a 27-0 lead and the Cowboys team and fans were shell shocked. 27-7 at the half, Dallas (literally) scoring at the buzzer before halftime.
There was some hope in the last 3rd-quarter when Dallas cut the lead to two scores, 34-16, but anytime Dallas did anything positive it was painstaking to get...then Green Bay would race right downfield for another score in response. Green Bay pushed the lead to 48-16 and pulled their starters, but Dallas scored two late junk TDs to force the Packers starters back in to put it away for good.
All credit to Green Bay...they destroyed the Cowboys. Watching this game live with all the emotions of things, everyone will want to praise the Packers and destroy everything Dallas. It’s just one game. As much as we praise Green Bay, we should also question how good Dallas ever was to begin with. Green Bay is somewhat lucky to have stumbled into the playoffs...they needed a late 3-game win streak, one where they looked brutally bad against Carolina and made Bryce Young look like Joe Montana, but the Pack still pulled that game out, then got tiebreaker help to fall into the playoffs – then massacred the Cowboys here. I don’t know if we should love the Packers or hate the Cowboys more from this result?
Dallas now enters a time of turmoil... They go from division champs and chic Super Bowl pick, to destroyed by a #7 seed who barely made it to the playoffs...losing at home, where Dallas was undefeated in the 2023 season...until now. Mike McCarthy’s job is in danger. Dan Quinn lost any semblance of a chance (that he shouldn’t get anyway) of getting a head coaching job. In the end, I suspect Jerry honors the (12-5/Division champs) season and doesn’t want to mess with breaking in a new coach when he can control McCarthy just fine. I’d be surprised if Jerry teams up with Bill Belichick...because he can’t control Belichick...but off an emotional loss, who knows what deal with a devil/Belichick that another devil/Jerry Jones would pull off as a visceral reaction to this loss.
Dallas played with almost no emotion or spark in this game...a lot of the issue should be blamed on the Cowboys players, not just McCarthy. Dallas didn’t get out-schemed, per se...they just got outplayed with CeeDee Lamb wandering around aimlessly half the game with a sour puss and the defense missing tackle after tackle.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB ...point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the QUALITY mark, and 2 times they did not (this current season).
Player Dynasty/Fantasy Notes...
-- Jordan Love (16-21 for 272 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) had no issues with this Dallas defense. I’ve often said, this season, that Love is a Jekyll-and-Hyde QB...week-to-week or series-to-series...only now as the season goes on, there’s less of the bad showing and more and more of the good side shining through. Midseason, all the discussions were how this experiment failed and what would the Packers do to replace Love. Now, it looks like he’s going to get a giant contract. That type of wild swing thinking usually ends up coming back to bite teams, but that’s the way they all operate.
Credit Love, but also credit Matt LaFleur for seeing this through and improving it as the season went on. I didn’t think LaFleur had the ability to pull this off...but he has.
Also, if Love has now arrived – the evaluation of the QB pool/economy going forward gets a whole lot more deflated. We touted the ‘Big 3’ (for FF) going into 2023 season (Mahomes, Allen, Hurts)...and Joe Burrow may be better than all of them with a healthy calf...and Justin Herbert may be better than all of them with a better coach/weapons...then we add Stroud-Richardson and possibly Levis (depending on their new coach) from the 2023 NFL Draft. Justin Fields and Lamar Jackson have nice 4pts per pass TD value. I assume 2-3 QBs from the 2024 NFL Draft will just wander in and be great right away, as is the new QB trends now...and now add Love to the list, perhaps? And we’re still ignoring Dak and Cousins in this too.
2024...FF QBs might be like TEs...everybody can have a good one in a 12-team FF league and there’s little separation between them – the separation being health and schedule, and head coach.
A possible glimpse at the QB valuation studies and discussions behind the scenes at FFM in 2024 offseason: https://youtu.be/pviYWzu0dzk?si=pBCVndQCdUo3TsrE
-- After being M.I.A. for most of the 2023 season, Romeo Doubs (6-151-1/6) lit up Dallas for a career day...that’s how you know the Dallas defense isn’t very good. I could see any number of GB WRs beating them to death, but not Doubs.
I don’t know how to project/value Doubs ahead. He looked very good here, and he always has moments where he flashes – but never follows through. I think, at this stage, he’s just a good/solid WR gaining experience and confidence but is in a situation where he’s surrounded by a lot of WR talent...and ‘none’ of them are the answer as to which Packers WR you can trust as the #1 going forward.
Christian Watson (1-9-0/1) was a ghost here, as he’s been most of the season...either hurt or ineffective.
Jayden Reed (0-0-0/3) seemed like ‘the guy’ above them all...and he laid an egg here.
Dontayvion Wicks (2-25-1/2) is super smooth but doesn’t absolutely stand out from the crowd of GB WRs.
Bo Melton (1-7-0/2) is a backup WR and rotational weapon.
Luke Musgrave (3-52-1/3) is just back from being weeks out with injury and got lose for a long TD here and made my prop betting weekend profitable, cleaning up all the alt yardage OVER bets. He’s in the mix for top receiver/target for Love ahead, but not the obvious lead in the mix.
From what I see, Jordan Love SMARTLY doesn’t lean on one thing...and he’s gotten better at that as he’s gone along. The answer as to what Packers WR or TE you want to have for the FF 2024 season? Answer = none. It’s too complicated to call...and there may really be no true answer...and there are plenty of other less complicated situations out there to work with.
-- I know Aaron Jones (21-118-3, 1-13-0/1) will be the lead back in 2024, one more year...but his running mate looks like David Johnson Jr. (a very poor man’s version), Emanuel Wilson (8-20-0).
Wilson was in the game in several key spots in this one and looked good...a couple near miss chunk runs. AND, even better...in garbage time...they took him out and put Patrick Taylor in as the sacrificial lamb.
If you’ve been with me most/all 2023...you know how important Emanuel Wilson is to FF ‘watch’.
-- Dak Prescott (41-60 for 403 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs, 6-45-0) had a killer FF game here...but he looked like garbage in the 1st-half and then piled on a ton of garbage-time work in the 2nd-half. It’s the story of Dak’s 2023 season = compiling on the weak, floundering against the good/strong.
For FF...you’ll take the junk time output and Dak has given it all 2nd-half of the season...BUT, just note...it’s built on a very shaky foundation, that type of FF compilation. Gets very fleeting, unrepeatable...especially if there are wholesale changes in 2024 among the coaching staff.
-- Jake Ferguson (10-93-3/12) was as quiet as Dak in the first 29 minutes of play, down 27-0...then he and Dak started rolling up junk numbers together. As Dak goes, so goes Jake Ferguson who has become the new Dalton Schultz...and Schultz was a top 6-10 FF TE for stretches with Dak.
What I think of Ferguson 2024, and Dak, etc., will depend on if/what changes happen among the coaching staff.
-- What helped Ferguson compile in garbage time was aided by CeeDee Lamb (9-110-0/17) having one of his worst games of his career...not statistically, just he’s really not a great WR...like Dak is not a great QB...but they’re pretty good and they compile when the situation sets up for them. CeeDee shrunk in the moment, but it doesn’t matter – he’s mainstream accepted, and he’ll get a giant new contract and his issues won’t get any better with $100M+ in the bank. Doesn’t matter what I think either...he’s a top 5 PPR PPG WR projection for FF 2024 until further notice.
Brandin Cooks (6-47-0/8) really didn’t help the Dallas offense much this year. I mean...he was there, he had some moments just because he was ‘there’ -- but he wasn’t a difference maker. Dallas will be looking for a new #2 WR this offseason.
Michael Gallup (6-103-0/6) had his best game of 2023 season, but it was garbage-time based and he has looked bad/off all season – I have been OUT on Gallup for a while, thought he might be trying to get back on track earlier this season...but he wasn’t. He flopped. He’ll be a journeyman WR soon.
-- I don’t know who the Dallas lead RB will be in 2024, but I can assure you it won’t be Tony Pollard (15-56-1, 7-29-0/9). I don’t know if Pollard’s bland season was Pollard’s issue or Dallas’s issue. It’s something I’ll likely study this offseason...but I’ll likely wait to see where he’s at for 2024 before doing so.
-- Dallas’s defense was amazing the first couple weeks of the season...a huge FF scoring machine, but it was all a fraud...all schedule-based. They crushed the weak and then would get crushed by the good/great offenses. I don’t know if Green Bay’s offense is ‘good’ or not at this stage, but whatever you would classify them...they rocked the Cowboys here, with ease.
So, I propose the following thought again...like with the CLE-HOU game and Myles Garrett...why are NFL teams and football scouts/analysts so enamored with big name/flashy EDGE rushers? Micah Parsons (2 tackles, 1 QB hit) looks really cool sometimes, but he was NOTHING here. He was hardly seen doing anything in this game. And whatever it is that he does...Dallas just gave up 40+ points here. I think they could’ve done as badly with or without Parsons, no?
Dallas gave up 30 or more points in three of their last 7 games. They were susceptible to getting smacked all season...they weren’t dominant overall, just dominant against the super-weak.
Snap Counts of Interest:
35 = A Jones
15 = E Wilson
06 = P Taylor
39 = Doubs
31 = Wicks
26 = J Reed
23 = Watson
22 = Melton
45 = Kraft
15 = Musgrave
88 = Cooks
87 = Lamb
63 = Gallup
36 = Tolbert
67 = Pollard
21 = Dowdle
