My FF and betting notes/thoughts for each game this weekend.
*Checkout the Bet The Close podcast with RC-Chris-Andrew talking about betting the playoffs for 2+ hours. That drops today/Friday 1/12/24.
*My individual prop bets/ideas will post on our handicapping page.
CLE (-2.0) at HOU
When I start to analyze this game, I begin with the question – what impact has Joe Flacco really had on the Browns? He’s 4-1 in his 2023 starts, and has been a great storyline but has he really been that good? My gut (after watching the tape/games the past month+) tells me it’s a little overblown.
The Browns got wrecked in Flacco’s debut vs. the Rams...not a major crime, because the Rams are really good. Then they hung on to beat the Jaguars in his 2nd game. Then a win over the Bears where the Browns were outplayed by a mile by Chicago, until the final 5+ minutes...Flacco throwing 3 picks in the game. And that’s the peak of Flacco, to me...beat the Jags and had a lucky comeback against Chicago.
After that, Weeks 16-17, Cleveland smoked Case Keenum-led Houston and then bullied the Jets for a half...then got shutout by them in the second half.
I don’t think Flacco is superhuman...the Browns O-Line is good but knocked down a peg on injuries during the season...and their defense is HIGHLY overrated. I don’t trust this Browns team.
When I look back over their season, I know they are good...but they got as good of schedule breaks all season as a team could get... They started the season vs. Joe Burrow’s ‘hidden’ calf problem and blew them out. They beat the 49ers in the rain when Brock Purdy played concussed...and SF had the win but missed a chip shot FG at the buzzer. At every turn, when they faced top competition...something weird happened to make the matchup ‘favorable’ = Burrow’s calf...Purdy’s concussion and the missed FG...the Texans matchup they caught Case Keenum with Stroud out.
When they faced bad/non-playoff teams they caught big breaks too – they shutout Arizona, when the Cardinals had to throw Clayton Tune out there for a debut. Their narrow 1-point win over Indy Week 7...the Colts had just lost Anthony Richardson prior.
If we throw out the CIN-SF-HOU wins as not quality wins...not as quality as they would appear in some algorithms...the Browns only quality win was Week 10 when they beat Baltimore 33-31 on a last second FG at the buzzer. Against 2023 season playoff bound teams, the Browns were 4-3...but the HOU and SF wins are very suspect...leaving them with wins over BAL...and awful PIT. This season is kind of a fraud.
I’m having to do a lot of IF>THEN ‘fuzzy math’ and gyrations to discount the Browns...but I know they are good. I know they can win this game. I’m just noting – this team hasn’t been as good as advertised/hyped by the media all season. The Browns led the NFL in turnovers...given up. The Browns were -9 in turnover differential this season...while the Texans were +10...and the turnovers only ramped up higher when Flacco took over.
On the flipside, we have Houston...and their total lack of quality wins this season. They went (2-2) against playoff teams...beating the weakest among them (PIT, TB) and losing to the Ravens (opening day before Stroud settled in) and lost to the Browns, but again that was with Case Keenum. What might this playoff game have been had Houston not lost Stroud, and had they beaten Flacco a couple weeks ago, and more easily won the division and had a better record than the Browns overall with a recent win logged in over them?
I would have loved to point to how great the Texans run defense has been of late, as an advantage facing a run-first Browns team...but then Jonathan Taylor ran all over the Texans last week. You could point to Amari Cooper having a season (200+ yards) in one game vs. Houston a couple weeks ago...but that was with no Stroud and other injury issues on defense. Last week, Houston shutdown Michael Pittman.
There’s so much conflicting data and trends in this game that it’s impossible for us to be definitive about it. At its core, I’m going to side with the Texans – if this game gets to be a bit of a shootout, I want to be on the Stroud side. In Stroud’s last 5 starts/games...the team hasn’t committed a turnover. In Flacco’s five starts, the team has committed 12 turnovers.
I’m with Houston as a pick, not a real bet. I will coffee bet it for fun because I’ll be rooting for Houston to win it...but I could see them face planting in a playoff game versus a more experienced Browns group. If this game was being played at cold, windy Cleveland...Browns all the way. On the fast track in Houston...I go Texans.
FF-wise, I’m not in love with anything here...per se.
I love Stroud and I think the Browns defense is overrated, but it’s still a good NFL defense...a top 10...just not the 85 Bears like the media tried to push early season 2023.
I suspect (an obvious observation...) Nico Collins and Amari Cooper will lead the way but not have as big of output games as Amari did v. HOU a few weeks ago and Nico won’t have an Indy Week 18 repeat...but they’ll be fine.
The hidden gems might be: Noah Brown or Robert Woods if they practice in full this week.
David Njoku is probably the most ‘money’ play there could be...he’s white hot and the Texans are weak against the TE.
MIA at KC (4.0)
The two most overrated teams in the 2023-24 playoffs face each other in the 1st-round.
To me, this game represents that battle of public perception/feelings vs. reality. But this game also has such a nasty weather report now that any season scouting/perceptions just about go out the window.
These two teams have been trying to tell us all season that they are fraudulent. The Chiefs have looked terrible most of the 2nd-half of the 2023 season. Miami has spent a season beating up the weak and collapsing vs. the strong. Yet, the public sees Patrick Mahomes as ‘holy’ and will easily say...this is where he turns it up, in the playoffs. Thinking Mahomes was going to ramp it up has been wrong for about the last half of the 2023 season. He wasn’t a QB1 in the 2nd-half of 2023...not even close. KC enters this game with a wobbly offense and decent defense.
Miami enters this game losers of three of their last 5...lucky to not be four of their last 5. They have one quality win, against Dallas in Week 16...a game they were lucky to win. Miami is (1-5) against playoff teams this season, and every loss was by 7 or more points. The one anomaly was their 2-point win over Dallas, and that should’ve been another 7+ point loss game. Miami was VERY lucky to beat Dallas.
KC has a better defense than Miami.
Mahomes is far superior to Tua.
KC has the experience and plays at home in the bitter cold...and Miami has yet to play in a game this season where the temps were under 50 degrees.
Everything points to KC in this game, even though KC is very flawed. I’m betting, mildly, the Chiefs and laying the 4.0.
I don’t love anything here for FF, because KC has been a drag for FF for several weeks...and now they’re playing in cold/stifling conditions.
If anything, I’d look at the Miami run game for FF hope...given the conditions, Miami is going to have to make it a run game, where they could have some advantage. Raheem Mostert, if he’s practicing in full, will get the push. De’Von Achane is always the upside wildcard play. Tyreek Hill is going to get doubled and tripled, but he always seems to find a way to make numbers. I’ll bet Tyreek gets 2-3-4-5 carries in this game as a wrinkle/way to get him the ball. Miami could win this if they get creative with Tyreek, but odds are...teams stick with what they’ve done all season and Hill won’t get a rushing attempt as Miami quietly loses and no one is surprised.
PIT at BUF (-10.0)
I don’t see any path where the Bills don’t crush the Steelers in this game. The one saving grace the Steelers could have is -- if the weather is so radical that it neutralizes the obvious gap between these two teams.
It’s supposed to be 60-70%+ chance of rain all game with 20-25 MPH winds with higher wind gust moments possible. Even with crazy weather, I’ll still take the Bills and lay the 10. I tried to get this at -7.5 when it first posted but the line moved so fast to -8.5 then -9.0 then -9.5 in a matter of minutes that I missed the window Sunday night as the Bills-Dolphins game ended.
There’s also a chance the weather pattern could shift and take a lot of the issues out of this game – and if this is any type of normal weather game, the Bills will throttle the Steelers.
Buffalo is catching fire at the right time. Their offense is in a groove under the new O-C and their defense has been coming into its own the past 4-5 games or so, bolstered by the trade for Rasul Douglas. Alas, Douglas is hurt and may not play...that doesn’t help the Bills case, but against Mason Rudolph it should be OK.
The Steelers need heavy rain and even heavier winds to try and pull off a miracle...and going about it without T.J. Watt is even more bad news for the Steelers.
If it’s windy...Josh Allen has a cannon for an arm and can work through it way better than the weakest armed QB entering this season’s playoffs: Mason Rudolph.
I’m not seeing anything great here for FF due to the rain...
Stefon Diggs draws Joey Porter, in the rain, so not excited there...which means we look at the ‘others’ for Buffalo, like we did in Week 18 (and won big) – Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir.
James Cook had that killer game Week 15 vs. Dallas...but has been not that awesome otherwise and fading hard the past 3 weeks. Given Cook’s ball protection issues the 2nd-half of the season and rain...we might see more RB rotation here.
I don’t see anything exciting, at all, for the Steelers. I like the Bills defensive TD potential a little bit.
GB at DAL (-7.0)
This one is a bit interesting. Green Bay/Jordan Love is streaky...they went (4-4) against 2023 teams with a winning record...they beat KC, they beat the Lions, and they beat the no-Stafford Rams, the beat the Saints. They won three straight to end the season. Jordan Love embodies this whole team – one week they look pathetic, then the next week they look fantastic...and it’s really like that series-to-series within games. You never know what you’re gonna get with the Packers. They’ve won seven of their last 10. They beat some good teams, but their Week 16 win against Carolina was the worst looking performance any team had against the Panthers. They have a terrible defensive coordinator, who will get fired after the season unless they shut down Dallas here.
You never know what Green Bay team is gonna show up, but I do know one of the versions of their team could show up and beat the Cowboys this week...but it’s asking a lot for a kinda-sorta rookie QB to go on the road in the playoffs and beat the (8-0) at home Cowboys with a veteran QB and an overrated, but solid defense. Dallas has won five of their 8 home games by 20 or more points. Dallas’s losses of late were all to playoff teams, and their losses on the road to PHI and MIA were games they outplayed the opponent.
My brain says to take the points...that it’s too many points to give in the playoffs, but my gut says Dallas is going to go stomp the Packers buoyed by their home field advantage.
This goes one of two ways...
1) Dallas stomps the life out of Green Bay here.
2) It’s a close game and it’s won by either on the last possession type of an affair.
I don’t think it logical for Green Bay to go to Dallas and blow them out.
Green Bay will try to roll behind Aaron Jones, who is finally getting healthy. And Dallas is so-so against the run. Dallas will just try to pressure Jordan Love, and Love hasn’t been great against good+ defenses overall, but he’s been improving all 2nd-half of the season, so he might pull off a surprise here if that 2nd-half rise is real...and I should trust the data trend, but I don’t (on Love).
I’ll not bet this game, but just ‘pick’ it. Likely for Dallas but possibly just taking the points. I’m on the fence with it...and that’s not grounds for smart betting, so I’m staying away unless the Bet The Close podcast group convinces me otherwise (written before the show was taped). As of this publishing, I’ll pick Dallas and lay the 7.0...but could change my mind before kick.
For FF purposes...
I like this game for the RBs, Jones and Pollard...but if Dallas overwhelms GB off the jump, then GB will abandon Jones and lean on their WRs more.
Dak-Lamb-Ferguson are the safe bets in the passing game, always. Love-Reed-Wicks-Melton is the more radical bet...but we could see Christian Watson and Luke Musgrave rise from the dead here and alter the FF outputs for the GB WR group. Jayden Reed is more of a constant I would trust for output and props.
In the end, the weakest thing in this game is the Packers defense...so, most of our projections lean towards that – Dallas wins, the Packers falter.
LAR at DET (-3.0)
At a minimum, I think these two teams could be considered evenly matched. There is no clear favorite...that’s why I am playing the Rams +3.0 with intent. Because what I really think – the Rams might be the second-best team in the entire playoffs right now...(7-1) since their Week 10 bye, getting Stafford back healthy...only loss was to the Ravens, in OT, a game the Rams should’ve won.
Matt Stafford is better than Jared Goff at this stage of their careers, and I am a Goff fan -- but Stafford is just better right now...if for nothing more than to note that Stafford has a great trio of WRs to work with, and Goff has one. In the battle of the best QB/passing game...I take Stafford right now/this very game.
Detroit has a better run game, but you can have the run game team in a likely shootout in dome conditions.
I could buy the Lions with some advantage with that run game IF they had a good or great defense to go with it, but they don’t. They arguably have the single worst pass defense in the NFL/these playoffs. The Rams, by comparison, have a solid run and pass defense. The Lions have a really nice run defense...but the Rams are not a run-dependent team. The Lions are a pass defense deficient team...and that’s where the Rams are strong -- in their passing game.
I jumped on the Rams at +4.0 and +4.5 out of the gates in early betting, but now the line is +3.0...and I would still take that.
For FF purposes...
This is the game where all the offense is gonna be...not KC-MIA in a frozen tundra game. I like all the passing game things here, and Stafford v. DET pass defense the most (and I’ve already posted all the props I jumped on with Stafford). With Stafford goes Puka-Kupp, but I like Kupp here as where Stafford will turn if/when Detroit overplays Puka...and then Detroit putting effort on Puka-Kupp leaves white-hot Demarcus Robinson to do some things too.
I imagine Goff will keep the pace as best he can, so Amon-Ra is a given...but we might see an extra motivated ex-Ram Josh Reynolds spike here too.
On the RB side, I’m more interested in Gibbs than Montgomery for FF output...if the Lions have to chase or keep pace with LAR’s offense.
*This game is a handicapping rarity: All three of our handicappers (RC, Chris, Andrew) have this is their best bet of the weekend.
PHI (-3.0) at TB
I don’t have any great metrics or analytics to back up the following statement, but my feeling on this game...’I got a bad feeling about the Eagles here’.
Jalen Hurts’ finger distracts away from how bad the Eagles have performed of late. Hurts has been fine, but their defense is abysmal. If A.J. Brown is taken away (injury)...then we’ve got some REAL problems here. I hate the way Philly is coming into this game.
I kinda-sorta like the way the Bucs are coming into this game. The offense has hit a stride of decency as the season has worn on...and that improving offense gets one of the worst defenses in the NFL (Philly) here. But what I really like is – the Bucs defensive talent.
Tampa has a nice mix of veteran defenders plus some of the better rookie/2nd/3rd-year guys in the NFL, young defenders who are emerging as the season goes on. The whole vibe/trend in Tampa is rising, not soaring...but rising or hitting a cruising altitude...while the Eagles are plummeting and may be missing their 2nd-best offensive weapon while their 1st-best offensive weapon has a problem with his finger on his throwing hand.
I’m going with Tampa...nearly about to bet it for fun/coffee.
For FF purposes...
You have to love the TB passing game here...Baker Mayfield passing yards and TD props look tasty on DK. I believe Mayfield is going to be fine for this game with his ankle, but if reports change then I’ll have to change with it.
Mike Evans will have a big game, if Baker does and with this sad Philly secondary...and Chris Godwin might too. Trey Palmer is a wild card every week.
If A.J. Brown is out, DeVonta (if he’s healthy) is in a good spot...as would Dallas Goedert be.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
HOU d. CLE
KC d. MIA
BUF d. PIT
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BAL d. HOU
BUF d. KC
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BUF d. BAL
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DAL d. GB
LAR d. DET
TB d. PHI
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SF d. LAR
DAL d. TB
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SF d. DAL
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SF d. BUF for the Super Bowl title
