Intro:
I mean...this is getting too easy. Four killer weeks in-a-row from the FFM universe. There’s likely two camps reading this (I gather from my tracking and conversations)...
1) You had a huge win (or just a win) Week 5 and things have been going swimmingly since a disastrous Week 1...or you’ve maneuvered into a real upswing via trades and waivers since Week 3. FF-life looks very good ahead now.
2) You got beat by D.J. Moore or Justin Fields, or both...and/or maybe Ja’Marr Chase dealt a loss. You scored well, but just got beat by a hotter team for the week. And/Or Anthony Richardson and/or some other concussion-shortened player from Week 5 forced the loss.
If you lost this way, and you see that you coulda/shoulda won if not for those unlucky random events – you can be mad at your luck, but not mad at your team. It’s not an indictment of your FF now/future if you lost in this manner...especially if you had Joe Burrow on the bench...and now you got him good-to-go going forward.
There are A LOT of (5-0), (4-1), (3-2) FF teams right now in FFM tracking and things have been getting better and better each week via time, trade, waivers. It’s almost too easy at this point. I’ve not seen a 4-week stretch of such consistently high win-rates across our FFM tracking as the past 4 weeks. It’s making me nervous that some shoe is about to drop...hopefully that shoe is just a bad scoring week and not mass injury.
(2-3) FF-teams out there are likely (2-1) in their past 3 weeks, so things are on the rise there and/or things are relatively fine chasing the playoff race.
(1-4) FF-teams are likely there via Burrow and some bad sit-start coin flips and/or bad schedule. You can’t give up on these teams. One win next week and you’re (2-4) with the playoffs likely (3-3) and you’re one game out with...what?...7 or so weeks to go? It’s silly to panic.
(0-5) FF-teams, of which we have just one in our tracking...there’s always some teams extremely unlucky to this point that always exist out there – you’ve had the worst of luck and it may seem like it’s over, but it is not in most cases. It’s getting close to the edge, sure, but just focus on winning this week. (1-5) is likely only 1-2 games out of the wild card with 7 or so weeks to go. Time is getting short but that’s do-able, especially in the bye week mayhem if the schedule falls your way.
Whatever your situation – we are always in ‘buy low’ and ‘sell high’ mode. Extremely important for the top teams especially – don’t fall asleep, don’t get too comfortable...don’t miss opportunity.
Target the (0-5) then (1-4) then (2-3) but just lost Week 5 teams, target them, for deals to be made...advantageous ones...like last week when several of you stripped Breece Hall away from panickers in easy-breezy deals. My job is to find the Breece Hall event of this week, if it exists...and it may not hit me until several days of tape and data review.
Keep trying to improve your team by building depth, looking at DST schedules and pairings for the next 2-3-4 weeks ahead (too much further out is nice but so much will happen to change things, ‘right now’ is more important for DSTs). Look for kicker upgrades. Add smart WR depth/gambles. You don’t always have to be coming to me with grandiose deal concepts for Kelce-Tyreek-CMC-Achane. Exchanging equal stars to see who is better the rest of the way is fun, but I’m looking to clearly IMPROVE teams, looking for savvy moves...looking for the Breece Hall Week 4 into 5 moments more...I’m looking at my kicker situations, I’m looking to dump my ‘sell highs’ into the perfect lap of a sucker...I’m not spending much time on trying to get CMC or George Kittle after his 3 TDs...I’m looking at Aiyuk having a down week and seeing the opportunity there.
AND the weakest member of the herd to attack are the FF-teams that just lost and/or the bottom feeder record teams. I look to target an owner’s psyche right now...not just looking at daydreams of ‘what players do I like/want!’
Great start you guys...and GREAT deals everyone is pulling off. For every weirdo deal I get asked about involving 7 stars changing hands (on paper) there are 10x the deal concepts where you are pinpoint assassinating the right target. Waivers/free agency are dry...trading is where the growth is right now.
Read the report...watch MNF...then time to get to work to take advantage of the easy marks/the panicked. You got the panicked right where you want them: https://youtu.be/CN6RkaJPAbI?si=94lvco-8b6OY2N4o&t=3
--THREE THINGS--
*What I saw live...and it may change as I watch the tape all this week, but these are my first impressions/notes from the live watch.
JAX-BUF
-- The key to this game was the Bills started out the contest already missing their two starting corners...and their top pass rusher...then they lost all their all-pro linebacker early in-game along with 3-4-5 other defenders. The Bills not only lost the game...but they may have lost their season/shot at the title here with all the defenders they just lost. You cannot use this DST going forward unless the most primo matchup there is.
-- Calvin Ridley (7-122-0/8...2/3) was overdue...and he came through, but it wasn’t pretty...and it was aided by all the missing defenders. I can’t put my finger on it...but the Trevor-Ridley connection is very purposeful but it’s also very choppy/not smooth...not Allen-to-Diggs, etc.
-- OK...I’ve about lost all (redraft) patience with Dalton Kincaid (2-19-0/2...0/5 QB). He’s not doing anything wrong, but there is no serious intent, no consistent intent to get him the ball. You wanna give up on this, and you might have to...but I am holding him as a #2 TE where it makes any sense to, in redraft.
Just be careful that you’re ‘so sure’ Justin Fields stinks and Joe Burrow isn’t ever gonna be right and Jonathan Taylor isn’t going back to Indy and that Dallas Goedert is done in Philly, etc., that you overreact your way away from something that just needed a little time. You may have to make a business decision here to bring in a better for NOW, but there is still reason for hope ahead. Once it turns...it’s too late...but it may not turn for weeks or all year.
TEN-IND
-- Where the hell did Zack Moss (23-165-2, 2-30-0/2...3/1 QS) 2023 come from? I never believed in aliens...or them abducting people and replacing a human’s body parts in a giant intergalactic experiment – but it’s the only rational explanation for Zack Moss as the best running back in the NFL in 2023.
Moss’s performance here (against the previously killer run defense of Tennessee) makes you wonder: (a) Why did the Colts pay Jonathan Taylor (6-18-0, 1-16-0/1) all that money? And (b) They can’t just bench Moss from here, right? They can’t purely hand this to JT after this Moss performance, plus his last several quality weeks, right?
-- I had a feeling about Josh Downs (6-97-0/6...2/3 QS) going into this, but I didn’t expect to work with Richardson and Minshew! Downs may be on his way to being the WR to own for the Colts, PPR-wise, going forward.
-- We move another step closer to ‘the Titans have to pull the trigger on a QB change’. Ryan Tannehill (23-34 for 264 yards, 0 TD/1 INT...0/5 QS) is handy but behind a bad O-Line...he’s not built for that. They go to Europe Week 6...then a BYE Week 7. If they lose badly to the Ravens overseas, and Tanny flops again – that might be the ‘change week’ with the extra time.
And I think they go to Will Levis...but Malik Willis is possible too. And note, we had Richardson-Stroud ranked high for scouting grades...then Levis a dip behind them...and Bryce Young not even in the top 5 QBs in the class, nor with a ‘passing grade’. Levis is talented, I think. But I don’t know that Mike Vrabel is the one to get it out of him.
NO-NE
-- I’m guessing the Mac Jones (12-22 for 110 yards, 0 TD/2 INTs...1/4 QS) benching will happen this week. The reason being...Bailey Zappe (3-98 for 22 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) should get a start Week 6 (LV) in before the all-in/only hope left part of the season for NE...Weeks 7-8 with BUF-MIA. If the Patriots don’t win two of their next 3 then their season is pretty much over. It is already, but it would be official if they’re (2-6), or worse, after Week 8.
It also wouldn’t surprise me if Belichick obstinately sticks with Mac...because he’s gonna do the opposite of what the fans are calling for. It needs to be his idea. This ship is sinking...has sunk.
-- The Saints took control of this game quickly, so they didn’t really need to open up the offense. So, any of the muted outputs...not really a big deal.
-- Another pure disaster for Rhamondre Stevenson (8-24-0, 0-0-0/2...0/5)...five disaster starts in the first 5 weeks. If you have him, he’s likely on your bench...another week of garbage and he might be on waivers. He’s not a buy low...this offense is bad no matter who the QB is, but maybe Zappe can give him some kind of boost.
BAL-PIT
-- This looked like it might be a Mike Tomlin getting frustrated with Najee Harris (14-37-0, 1-3-0/1...0/5 QS) moment...and when Jaylen Warren (9-40-0, 3-39-0/3...0/5 QS) came in, he really saved this game for the Steelers. It should be BEYOND obvious that Warren needs to start over Najee...but, I predict, that will NOT happen. Mike Tomlin is (3-2), somehow, so he knows better than anyone (in his mind). He will never make the Warren move on purpose. But just know that in this game, much less the last two years, only an idiot could miss how much better the offense, the whole team vibe, is with Warren in the game.
-- The Todd Monken Offense has given us a Lamar Jackson (22-38 for 236 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, 6-45-0...2/3 QS) that is averaging 206.0 yards passing per game and passing TD counts in games of 0-2-0-2-0. How revolutionary!
-- George Pickens (6-130-1/10...2/3 QS) was on his way to another wasted/pedestrian game, but then he had two passes forced out to him late that were ‘go get it’ throws and Pickens cashed them in for 2 catches, 60+ yards, and a TD. This version of Pickens would work, but that version of Pickens only shows up about once every 3-4 games.
HOU-ATL
-- Tank Dell (3-57-0/4...2/3 QS) was on his way to a normal game with a nice output, but then he landed hard on his face catching a pass and left halfway through, not to return. He’ll be at risk of not playing this week.
-- The Texans focused on shutting down the run, and they did...Bijan Robinson (14-46-0, 2-12-1/2...3/2 QS) had another low game, the kind he will have when smart defenses keep learning from the tape prior how to slow him down (keep him boxed in from getting outside AND overplay him to run to the right).
-- Credit the Falcons pass defense, that we now have to take even more seriously – they bottled up an already great C.J. Stroud (20-35 for 249 yards, 1 TD/0 INT...3/2 QS)...the most frustrated that I’ve seen him since his rookie debut Week 1. Kudos to the Falcons pass D.
CAR-DET
-- Bryce Young (25-41 for 247 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs...0/5 QS) had a great garbage time effort. He might work his way onto people’s lineups (in your league) next week with this tally. I’m not buying it at all...I buy he can do this in perpetual/excessive garbage time but that’s so hard to count on.
– Young is throwing all he can to Adam Thielen (11-107-1/13...4/1 QS...four in-a-row)...and when corners play off him he’s getting open in the cracks of a zone. He’s also getting a bunch of bubble screens to add fuel to the PPR fire...because of Bryce Young’s limitations. He started slow this game and then PPR numbers started spinning like the National Debt counter as the game got out of hand...and went over the top with a later, garbage TD.
-- Jameson Williams (2-2-0/3) did not look good in his 2023 debut. Limited snaps. Limited routes. Gaffed a perfect throw over the middle. I’m even more emboldened to treat him as still a part of my ‘no go’ knucklehead WR $#!& list.
NYG-MIA
-- That’s the Darren Waller (8-86-0/11...1/4) we’ve been looking for...a ton of targets and forcing it if need be, and Waller was coming up with tough catches. Back on the Waller bandwagon for another week. A nice matchup next week with Buffalo IF Matt Milano is out.
-- De’Von Achane (11-151-1, 1-14-0/1) got loose for another long score. The Giants did a better job than any team so far containing him a bit, but he still had the big play and 1-2l other chunk runs. If you got it, keep riding it. There are no signs of this slowing down right now.
-- Wan’Dale Robinson (5-18-0/5, 1-1-0) got decent targets here but not as many as I hoped, and then it seemed like every time he caught a pass and got tackled, he got up slow or limped out of the game. He didn’t show a lot of ‘it’ factor here.
PHI-LAR
-- Jalen Hurts (25-38 for 303 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 15-72-1...4/1 QS) is starting to snap out of his funk. He started running with more purpose here and his passing game is really dialing in. This ‘Big 3’ QB member (so tabbed in the redraft season) is headed back towards the top 3 in FF scoring again. Any worries you had from a few weeks ago – it seems some of these guys just needed a few weeks to get locked in.
-- I thought Matt Stafford (21-37 for 222 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT...0/5) was gonna go for 300+ yards this game and make it a shootout, but it did not come to pass. Stafford came firing out of the gates with a 1st-drive TD drive...but then the Eagles took control of the game/clock (38/22 minute edge) and the Rams kinda faded away.
The schedule gets a little easier, not great, from here for the Rams passing game.
-- The loser of the WR group with Cooper Kupp (8-118-0/12) back was Tutu Atwell (2-9-1/5...3/2 QS). He did get a TD, but the targets were sparser otherwise and a couple near-miss bigger plays that could’ve pushed him to a 4-50-1 type of game. And if this were a normal game flow with the Rams having more possessions/time/attempts, maybe it would’ve been a bit better...but now it’s a watch list/worry item for us Tutu owners. I don’t think it’s time to full-panic...but I’m not feeling great either. It’s just one result.
CIN-ARI
-- Joe Burrow (36-46 for 317 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) is back. He instantly looked the best he’s had, physically, all season from the very first snap I saw. When I saw his first throw, I said to a friend I was chatting with during the game – oh, crap...Burrow is back to normal.
It’s so difficult to make decisions on players that are underperforming, even though they’ve been stars prior...especially when there is an injury issue associated. Our bent in Fantasy is – rid ourselves of problems quick and punish underperformance for tormenting us in FF...it feels like we’re ‘doing something’ to address the problem, but at its core...we just psychologically want away from the things causing us angst...and we’ll make rash decisions to solve the core issue (our psyche). That urge tends to bite us, in FF, more times than not. Burrow...Fields...Hurts – they just needed a couple weeks to get their output/value ramped back up...needed a few weeks to get in a groove, perhaps.
Bottom line = we’re all going back to ‘Burrow is normal’ living going forward...and for all that it means.
-- I figured it was ‘too soon’ for Michael Wilson (1-18-0/2) to be relevant just yet, coming off a big Week 4. Wilson didn’t get his first target until late in the 4th-quarter. It’s just not his consistent time yet. Someday, but not yet.
-- James Conner (6-46-0) went down and out midgame...and that launched Emari Demercado (10-45-1, 1-12-0/3) into the spotlight, and he looked pretty good. At minimum, Demercado bought himself more snaps/playing time ahead, especially in the passing game. Upside...he’s gonna be ‘the man’ for a week or so if Conner misses time.
Demercado is capable...a backup/sidekick to Kendre Miller at TCU, kinda hidden because Kendre was so good. He’s got size and is pretty nimble with good hands. Arizona signed Tony Jones, but that’s more for depth/need and confirmation Conner is going to be out for a bit.
NYJ-DEN
-- Zach Wilson (19-26 for 199 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, 3-26-0) was not as good as he was against KC Week 4...but he wasn’t bad. He started out a little nervous but started flashing that Week 4 talent later in the game during several crunch time moments. It wasn’t great but it wasn’t bad. It was a small step forward. I don’t think he’s ever going to ‘get there’ to be a legit franchise QB, or he would've kicked ass in this game, but it’s possible/not a closed case yet...he’s got all the natural tools. He’s just a bit too gun-shy on making a mistake right now...if his brain flips over, with more time on the field, he could be something. But this was not as good as his Week 4 ‘wow’.
-- More than a few of you, I know, made pretty easy/cheap deals to get Breece Hall (22-177-1, 3-17-0/3...1/4 QS) this past week. That worked out well, no? This was the apex...the best matchup an RB could have, so it may not be such smooth sailing from here – but Breece is coming into his own. He looks fantastic running the ball. He’s got RB1 talent all day long...but that O-Line...and the fact teams are gonna stack him to make Wilson beat them – many road bumps ahead, but also a lot of upside hope.
-- Jaleel McLaughlin (9-68-0, 3-21-1/4...2/3 QS) filled in as the lead back this game (Javonte inactive). Early on, McLaughlin had a couple nice, longer-ish plays...then he was kinda shut down from there.
McLaughlin will be in a rotation with Javonte-Samaje going forward. This is a total risk and undermining of Javonte moment...that’s my prediction.
KC-MIN
-- If Justin Jefferson (3-28-0/6) is down for some time, I don’t think the Vikings have a real FF answer to turn to. Yes, more targets will go to Jordan Addison (6-64-1/9) and K.J. Osborn (5-49-0/9)...but they aren’t very good, not in a ‘step up to #1’ way. Addison would be the play because K.J. Osborn has probably the worst hands of any starting WR in the NFL...but it also means the rookie will draw top opposing coverage. T.J. Hockenson (5-51-0/8) will lead the way, actually.
-- Speaking of bad hands WRs...KC is trying to make Rashee Rice (4-33-1/5) and Justyn Ross (2-28-0/4) ‘a thing’ because no other WR is really stepping up...but they aren’t very good either. The answer to ‘who is the Chiefs #1 WR’ is = none. We either need to stop looking/seeking or just wait for them to acquire a veteran WR. They don’t need to have a main WR, when they have Travis Kelce (10-67-1/14).
-- I thought we’d get closer to more Cam Akers (5-15-0, 2-3-0/2) working more of a share/split here, but Alexander Mattison (8-26-0, 2-20-1/3) still seems to be ‘the guy’. That may change in the wake of a (1-4) team that is (0-3) at home this year and missing Justin Jefferson. The Vikings need something to turn this thing around, but I don’t think that thing exists because you got a coach and GM issue that set this whole table...and you ain’t changing them. But they traded for Akers for a reason.
DAL-SF
-- Just so you can be ‘hipped to it’, the mainstream now thinks Brock Purdy (17-24 for 252 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT...3/2 QS) is pretty good...and they’re gonna tell you all about this week. There’s nothing like destroying the Cowboys on a national TV game to bring it to light for the mainstream. They thought the (12-0) record and the great QB ratings and efficiency stuff were cute...but now that they beat Dallas on a solo night game they watched – now, they’re going to tell you all about this thing they discovered.
Many of you added Purdy to a Burrow emergency plan, and now...going into Week 6...you got two top 5 or so FF producers at QB.
Still, only a few want to buy my ‘importance of the QB’ theory for FF each preseason...rare few want to get as extreme as I do. And this season is starting to play out exactly to my theory of possessing one ace, and that possessing a second ace hope in the hole is a huge strategical advantage...yet, people still balk and want to get into the RB chase and hoarding and perpetual angst with all their league mates/friends.
When the Burrow issue became evident, you had to act to add more QBs...and if you acted fast, many of you now have like a Burrow-Purdy-Stroud combo...all on the rise...now you have trade chips and security and options and you can use one for your precious, eternal RB zombie search for brains as you roam the FF earth.
Purdy is now the #9, and rising fast, QB in FF PPG (4pts) so far this season. His best gift to your FF team might only be – the bridge to getting Joe Burrow healthy. Job well done, if that’s the case.
-- On the other hand, Dak Prescott (14-24 for 153 yards, 1 TD/3 INTs) is now in trouble...guilty of committing the crime of losing to a vastly superior SF team on a solo night game. Every football fan lives in this weird ‘my emotions and future plans are all based on what happened to my team (NFL, CFB, or FF) this past week (without context...just raw emotion)’. And that emotion is turbocharged if the thing happened on a solo night game for all the media to discuss for 24 hours or so.
One of the reasons we had SF as a top bet this week, and the entire handicapping group did as well – Dallas hasn’t proven anything this year because they’ve had a gift schedule and in their one matchup with a mediocre/not-terrible team (v. ARI) – they got smashed. While the 49ers are just throttling all comers, good and bad. This is not a Dak issue alone...it’s a Jerry Jones and Mike McCarthy issue at its head...and you can’t fix one of those 2 problems ever. And when Jerry pulls the plug on McCarthy, he’ll hire another McCarthy-like coach he can control...and the wheel just keeps spinning.
Dak is solid but like with many long-time QBs...the game is passing them by. What was great 5+ years ago is now average. Dak is now an average NFL talent, while guys like Brock Purdy and C.J. Stroud are instantly better as rookies...within a few games of being rookies. It’s just the way of the world now...and if you think Trey Lance is the answer, you’re fooling yourself...you’re as in: Jerry...fans...media. Get ready for a week of ‘Trey Lance’ needs to take over for Dallas! As fans reach for anything not the current thing in their emotional meltdowns over football things that just happened. We do the same in Fantasy, so making fun of them is making fun of us.
-- George Kittle (3-67-3/4...2/3 QS) had his annual amazing game...and now everyone will pile into him because they saw him succeed on a solo night TV game. Forgotten is last week’s 1 catch for 9 yards event...everything is about 3 TDs...on 4 targets.
I look forward to all the emails this week from people wanting to see what I think of their trade proposal to acquire Kittle this week. Perfect timing! But...but...it happened on TV, and I saw it! The big Logan Thomas or Cole Kmet or Dallas Goedert Week 5’s (Kmet Week 4) big events don’t faze as much as the popular player doing something on national TV in a highly watched MNF game. YTD Kittle is #7 in FF PPR PPG...just behind Logan Thomas. FYI...yet Kittle will be in demand in trade this week and Logan to be gotten off waivers, mostly.
You should be looking at the sell off Kittle...not the buying of. Or just hold. TEs have these random spike weeks, like Dallas Goedert just had. You do the best you can at TE because if you don’t have Travis Kelce...you just limp along trying to hop the latest train you can and riding it while looking for the next train to hop.
===== FIVE PLAYERS =====
*** FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO TRUST***
*Looking at players owned less than 50% on average in leagues across the whole FF-landscape. Your league, obviously, may be different/deeper.
**Adding a school grade to show my interest level (A-F)…and I don’t mean that a D-F grade is ‘bad’/just showing how pressing/important to me, your situation may differ due to injury, etc..
***IF FAAB% mentioned at any time below is based on a 16–20-man roster/12-team league. And it’s hard to predict the right bid % because every league, situation, and lineup needs are so different. So, doing the best I can to ‘project’ (i.e. ‘guess’) what they will be based on early chatter.
*Again, note…not a grade on talent…just how important/urgent/great the waiver move is in context.
1) RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Grade: C+)
The one RB on here that has a real chance of stealing the main job from a failing current starting RB. Hubbard is the one guy on this list this week where he works nicely Week 6 (if Sanders is really hurt) but also might have legs from there to bump the current starter. I don’t believe Frank Reich has the guys or smarts to do it, but if they keep losing...
2) RB Emari Demercado, ARI (Grade: C+/C)
The guy everyone will chase because he’s a mysterious rookie everyone is going to make up fanciful tales in their heads about as FF analysts pretend that they know the guy in waiver articles this week.
He’s a solid hand, overlooked in college and forced his way onto the roster as a UDFA this year. He’s solid...not a star, but solid on a good team with an injury issue RB as the starter. When Conner returns, he will be back as the main man – but Demercado will be earning more and more snaps and touches, especially on 3rd-downs.
His value this week is based on how bad (or not) Conner’s injury is.
3) WR Josh Reynolds, CHI (Grade: C)
How Reynolds is under 50% owned and Jameson Williams is nearly 60% owned is remarkable, and tells you everything you need to know about the mind of a FF player – always wanting to be the hero. Boring old Josh Reynolds has the 28th most FF points (total) on the season with 2, almost 3, quality starts.
4) TE Logan Thomas, WSH (Grade: C)
Darren Waller-lite. You could do worse in TE waivers...where we’re all always chasing ‘what happened last week’ only to get led to slaughter by ‘this next week’ unless we have Travis Kelce.
5) PK Ka’imi Fairbairn, HOU (Grade: C)
Tied for #2 PPG kicker in the league right now. A good kicker, kicks in a dome a lot, on a good offense that gets into scoring position a lot.
6) PK Matt Gay, IND (Grade: C)
A top 10 kicker YTD with dramatic swings of output the last few weeks game-to-game, but he’s a top NFL kicker talent who kicks in a dome and plays on an offense that moves the ball but isn’t so efficient that it won't settle for a lot of field goal attempts...especially long range ones, which is a Gay specialty.
7) WR Josh Downs, IND (Grade: C-)
I thought there was something developing between Downs and ARich on tape, and it was starting to perk here...but I am also pleased that there is something between Minshew and Downs too, potentially.
Week 3 and Week 5 with Minshew: 5.5 rec. (9.5 targets), 43.5 yards, 0.0 TDs. It’s a PPR thing not a superstar breakout thing.
8) RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Grade: C-/D+)
If Roschon is cleared of the concussion, he’ll start and split with Foreman. If Roschon is amazing, then maybe he’ll earn a split with Khali Herbert in a few weeks. A lot of ‘ifs’ and limited upside because ‘Chicago’.
9) RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Grade: D+)
We’re back to ‘Warren takes over for Najee’ talk all week...that will go nowhere in reality, but it should.
10) RB D’Onta Foreman, CHI (Grade: D/D+)
Foreman potentially to get the full start Week 6 against a decent MIN run defense. I’m not super-excited about it, but it’s a live body for those in need. Maybe Foreman can play so well he gets more playing time to come, but I doubt it. The best value in Foreman is him getting released and signing where he is needed.
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***FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO DISTRUST***
1) RB Eric Gray, NYG
I have no faith in the Giants rostering Eric Gray to begin with, but then giving him a start here...what a joke. Even if he is ‘the Barkley handcuff’, who cares? He sucks and the Giants suck.
2) RB Jeff Wilson, MIA
He’s not coming back for a long while, and when he does...he’s not going to factor in much.
3) WR Trenton Irwin, CIN
Nice game Week 5 filling in for Tee Higgins. He’s a solid NFL WR that never has a follow up to a spike moment. Been there, done that.
4) TE Adam Trautman, DEN
Had a TD Week 5...whoopee! He stinks. Sean Payton deserves all that’s happening to him. Trautman is ‘his guy’ (from the past), so Greg Dulcich has to watch this work in front of him when he returns...and Albert O. got cut so Payton could roster this guy.
5) QB Bryce Young, CAR
I shouldn’t have to warn of this, but there may be some new folks that weren’t with us all summer. Young might be decent for garbage time throwing but that’s about it. His Week 5 ‘breakout’ was a joke...blown out and embarrassed for 2+ quarters, then the Lions throttled back and Young picked up some garbage. He’s not breaking out like C.J. Stroud...as I read on one football website this morning.
6) QB Desmond Ridder, ATL
Last week, everyone was trying to get Ridder benched by the Falcons. This week, he threw for 300+ yards because the Texans were (smartly) overplaying the run and begged him to throw the ball and he got lucky and avoided picks (that HOU defenders missed/dropped) and ended up having some numbers...but there is no breakout or real QB here.
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***FIVE BUY LOW PLAYERS***
*NOT ‘Buy at any price’…it’s Buy LOW. Try to find a deal. If none to be had, walk away. It’s also NOT…go immediately ask the owner ‘What do you want for ____’, don’t telegraph your desires.*
1) RB Jerome Ford, CLE
There’s a lot of distrust about the #1 RB capabilities of a guy most have not heard pushed in the media, but I think he’s going to be the lead back above Hunt/Strong. The issue is...the Browns O-Line run blocking is breaking down and Ford has had little room to roll. The issue here might not be carries but yards per carry.
But some are giving up on him...I’m a buyer cheap to add to my RB rotation, and I believe in Ford.
2) RB Brian Robinson, WSH
Had a lower volume game last week...always a time to consider a player’s ‘buy low’ potential. He’s the very solid lead back who was doing fine before the TNF game got out of hand with Chicago and they abandoned the run. The issue being...that may happen a bunch to the Commanders.
3) RB Rachaad White, TB
Tampa is committed to the run and committed to Rachaad doing it...right up the middle with no deviation. The problem – TB faces the top run defense of the Lions this week. You could wait for a bad Week 6...or wait for the super low projections on him to consider buying low. He’s only going to be a volume RB2 this season, but his market price right now is uninteresting RB3/should I cut this guy level for current owners.
4) QB Matt Stafford, LAR
You got Anthony Richardson issues...especially in a 6pts pass TD league? A lot of people started Stafford as a flier last week and got mildly burned. Stafford has weak FF numbers for the year, but he’s thrown for yards but not TDs (Kyren Williams getting a bunch of cheap TDs). This offense is gonna take off for FF numbers, I think...especially in good/favorable matchups. This should come cheap...or walk away.
5) QB Anthony Richardson, IND
DYNASTY...just noting that this week and maybe the next 1-2 weeks will be the lowest trade value Richardson might be for the foreseeable future. Richardson hasn’t totally blown up yet and he’s been more out/hurt...the ‘guard’ is getting let down by fickle FF owners who hate to hold things not pleasing them weekly. Not saying he’s being dumped...just conversations will now be entertained where they might be laughed at 3-4-5-6-7 weeks ago.
If you say, ‘I dunno...he’s always hurt’. Well, if you think you think that...guess what his current owner is thinking times five because they’ve had to live with it hurting their FF weeks.
This is ‘buy low’ discussion...not a Dr. ‘internet and my hurt FF feelings’ medical theory/discussion. A concussion and sprained AC joint are not radical injuries...they do tend to come with the running QBs, however. Always gotta have two to have one (FF QBs)...
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***FIVE SELL HIGH PLAYERS***
*NOT ‘Sell at any price’…it’s sell HIGH/sell good. Try to find someone in love with your player or seen as a neat value thrown into a multiplayer deal. If no one respects the player/buys right…then walk away.*
1: WR D.J. Moore, CHI
He’s likely going to be a WR1 this year. No reason to get off this train because a great collapse is coming, but he’s not TNF Week 5 good every week...and when the schedule gets tough the Moore numbers could tumble along with Fields. I only mention him here that if you wanted to try and use him to get into a real big fish WR or RB...this is his moment of extreme value.
2: QB Justin Fields, CHI
From laughingstock to now the #5 QB in FF scoring overall for 2023. If you think that his 2-week rise was schedule based/allowed, then now is the time to sell him. One week could be lucky, two weeks of top performance is ‘he’s back’...for valuation.
3: WR Calvin Ridley, JAX
Now here’s a WR who is acting like, having numbers and the targets of a #1 WR...but on tape, I don’t see the ‘it’. I see the volume but not the ‘it’. YTD, Christian Kirk is scoring more PPG. If you can sell him as a WR1, I’d consider it. I’m not cold dumping him...I just don’t see a #1 guy here. But he’ll get #1 guy targets.
4) WR George Pickens, PIT
There’s never anything on purpose to Pickens...it’s always late game miracle moments when they finally decide to push him. Had a great game ending play/TD Week 5...always a good time to sell Pickens, off a cool play highlight. Pickens is not getting the ball with a purpose and Diontae Johnson will be back soon, further watering things down. WR 1.5 valuation or better...or hold.
5) WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA
I am totally cold on this guy. They almost forced him his TD in this game, and he still had a ‘meh’ output outside of the forced, short score. Second week in a row for him on this list – his name is WAY above his reality. But people love Dolphins things. WR1.5 value to sell.
6) WR Chase Claypool, MIA
My only interest in him last week was to pick him up to use him as a sweetener in a trade, or in some/any kinda trade. I don’t believe he’ll have any real FF impact in Miami...although it’s tantalizing to think about if he could get his head screwed on straight. I’m willing to sell the sizzle. WR3 value.
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***FIVE DEEP SLEEPER WAIVER PICKUPS***
*Total flier/lowly owned or not-owned players
1) RB Cam Akers, MIN
I think of all the backup RBs in the league right now – this is the hotspot name for a guy to take over as the lead RB from a very underwhelming starter (Carolina/Chuba is the other contender). Maybe Akers mentally can’t get there, but I can see on the field he’s clearly better than Mattison...and Mattison is dropping passes and flopping goal line runs too often to not get noticed by the staff. There’s a reason why they even traded for Akers in the first place.
2: WR Michael Gallup, DAL
Just what I hoped...bad night against SF will throw everyone off the scent. I want to hold Gallup and see where this is going – he looks so good on tape right now.
4) RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL
Gets more touches as a backup than most starters in the league.
4) WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR
While Mingo was out, Terrace Marshall put up really nice numbers. If Mingo can get in on some of that Bryce Young Baby Throw Offense (BTO) like Marshall did...and some passes have-to-not-go-to Thielen. He’s averaging 6.5 targets per game this season with a career-high 5 catches Week 5.
5) RB Kendre Miller, NO
Got a lot more carries Week 5 because the Saints were wrecking the Patriots, but he looked good...and is the natural handcuff for AK.
6) QB Will Levis, TEN
I think, just pure speculation, that there will be a day where out of the blue...Tannehill is benched and Levis is made the starter. Not this week but look for any game where Levis is active for a game (hasn’t been so far) and that may be the sign of things to come. Not that Levis will be an instant star, but he’ll be FF-better than Tanny at some point. Can’t be worse.
7) QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, CLE
Deshaun Watson is still not practicing...after a bye week off.
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-- FIVE…IT’S OK TO QUIT THEM PLAYERS (for REDRAFT) --
1) WR Odell Beckham, BAL
This hasn’t been anything all season. OBJ missed games, but the ones he’s played have been terrible/nothing. What a waste of $15M.
2) RB Cordarrelle Patterson, ATL
Finally got to play this past week...got all of one target in the game. He’s not being sued in any special way. He’s being ignored. Several NFL teams should be trying to trade for CP for RB help.
3) WR Jameson Williams, DET
I just don’t think there is anything here. Detroit keeps telling us that with the way they treat him...and Jameson keeps telling us that with the way he plays.
4) WR Skyy Moore, KC
Not the answer in KC...just a random event.
5) WR Jahan Dotson, WSH
Not one week has there looked like any real effort to utilize him in any unique way.
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***STREAMING DSTs OFF WAIVER(?) OPTIONS***--
1) Texans-DST
This defense has held its last three opponents to 21 or fewer points...14.0 PPG. They are getting healthy during this time as well.
Very well coached, a team on the rise...with a neat schedule ahead. Besides the Week 10 Cincy game (and the Wk7 BYE) the schedule is very workable.
Week 6 = NO
Week 7 = BYE
Week 8 = at CAR
Week 9 = TB
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Week 10 = at CIN
Week 11 = ARI
Week 12 = JAX
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Week 13 = DEN
Week 14 = at Jets
Week 15 = at TEN
Week 16 = CLE
Week 17 = TEN
2) Falcons-DST
Turning out to be a not-bad defense at all. I thought it was possible but didn’t fully believe it...I’m becoming a mild believer. Schedule nice the rest of the way, mostly. Just 1-2 opponents really stand out...the rest are viable ATL start considerations, no?
Week 6 = WSH
Week 7 = at TB
Week 8 = at TEN
Week 9 = MIN
Week 10 = at ARI
Week 11 = BYE
Week 12 = NO
Week 13 = at NYJ
Week 14 = TB
Week 15 = at CAR
Week 16 = IND
Week 17 + at CHI
3) Browns-DST
Dropped due to their BYE week (and getting whacked by the Ravens Week 4), but before that they were a hot DST. No good this week vs. SF, but then Minshew-Geno-Dobbs-Lamar-Pickett-Russ after that is workable/some hope...if they are as good as their Weeks 1-3 suggested.
4) Raiders-DST v. NE
We’ll see how they look against GB this week, but Week 6 hosting NE is worth something to consider for those in need.
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-- Sleeper/lesser-name IDPs whose box scores or live watch caught my attention --
1) DL Nik Bonitto, DEN
Last time we’ll see him on this list...he’s white-hot right now. 4.5 sacks in his past 2 games. On the season, he’s averaging 3.0 tackles, 1.1 sacks, 1.6 TFLs per game.
2) CB K’Von Wallace, ARI
Has at least 7 tackles in every game this season. Averaging 8.0 tackles, 0.8 TFLs per game.
3) LB Dorian Williams, BUF
With Matt Milano out, it’s Dorian Williams time – a linebacker I thought was a top 3-5 or so LB prospect from this draft.
4) LB Nick Morrow, PHI
Week 4 he had 11 tackles and 3 sacks. He’s the new starter the past 4 weeks and has averaged 5.5 tackles, 1.5 TFLs, 1.0 QB hits, 0.75 sacks per game as a starter.
5) DL Carl Granderson, NO
0.75 sacks, 1.0 TFLs, 1.6 QB hits per game this season.
6) LB Blake Cashman, HOU
Back from the dead! I used to really like Cashman and he splashed a little as a rookie then went M.I.A. He’s started the past three games but Week 5 he played a ton of snaps for the first time (96%) and had 9 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 QB hit. He’s a neat player that I’d love to see shine in Houston.
Outro for Week 5:
It’s Breaking Bad nostalgia week because I feel like I’m the king of the world the last few weeks, since the Week 1 disaster...it’s been mostly FF ‘money’, universally, ever since.
Let’s keep the good times rolling with one of my favorite BB scenes...it’s why I work like a maniac at FF, especially for FF seasons that start out like 2023: https://youtu.be/Beu8eDYc0RM?si=rPlFf4gLtt_5pmOJ
