Intro:
I’ll lead off with a quick note on how things are going, but then a long rambling edict to consider – because things are going quite well for most...so, we need to keep a focus on what to do when things are going well...but I also have a message for the downtrodden, much of this whole intro is for whatever record/situation you FF find yourself in.
Well, another solid week in FFM-land. After a garbage Week 1...arguably the worst Week 1 in FFM tracking history, normalcy+ has returned Weeks 2-3-4, the best Week 2-4 stretch in FFM tracking history.
It’s a game of extremes this Fantasy Football.
Fantasy is a game of extremes – and processing all the games, info, momentum every week and putting it all in context is so key...a key that most FF players miss because they wanna be caught up in yesterday’s narrative. No matter how many times I warn of it...point it out...harp on it – FF people are swept up in ‘what happened last week’. It’s a phobia that is unexplainable. FF players are a such a #MeToo movement – they wanna be with what they see being discussed on TV or on the radio or podcasts.
Two weeks ago, little/no discussion about Dolphins things...last week, all discussion about the greatness of Dolphins things and the desire to trade for everything on their team, today/this week...no one asking me about Dolphins things. An example of how we are manipulated by ‘what happened last week’ and media bombardment.
I will continue to harp on this theme to hopefully reach more people who are in ‘last week’s results’ grips, but I know there will be like one new convert for every 50-100 reading this. I mainly do it to point out to the long time FFM cult members who have been freed from the shackles of the Bryce Young loving football mainstream/analysts...that there is another way, there are hidden things to discover, and when they are zigging we should look to be zagging – and that these people I refer too, the constantly panicked and angry FF players...angered by the bad things that happened to them last game -- we need to seek them out in redraft to try to make trades with them and take advantage of their over-emotional state.
Your league is made up of three kinds of owners, in most cases:
1: Owners who are angry FF players who follow the crowd (while they think they are radicals...they think they have info no one else does...spoiler alert: the thing they read on ESPN or some other FF blurb parroting site...a few million other FF people have seen it or read it as well). You gotta identify these people and take advantage. The serious/angry know-it-alls can’t handle losing or anything going bad even for a moment because they think they are so football-smart that they should never lose – and are subject to irrational moves.
2: Casual, non-angry players who follow the same exact football information because it’s what is out there for all for free...and everyone is pretty much saying the same things on all football analysis sites, so we can predict what they’re going to do quite easily – they will do whatever IBM’s Watson or whatever mainstream lineup/trade analyzer tells them to do. When they’re losing...they’ll make deals because they think they should. They feel the same pain as the super-angry when things go wrong.
It’s time to go after these teams that are in peril.
We’re in stage III of the redraft Fantasy Football season...
Stage 1: Draft your team.
Stage 2: Change a chunk of your original team via very fertile waivers/free agents available and changing hands.
Stage 3: Dried up free agency/waivers, so now is the time to improve, remake (as needed) your team via trading. And trading with the panicked and angry is the fertile area to head towards.
I know you can’t dial up trades on command. But you need to seriously assess your team and what improvements can be made and then who are the panicked to deal with and what do they have that you want/could help. They don’t always have what you want. They don’t like to trade, maybe. There are a million excuses, but you gotta try. Not force it, but targeted try.
We (cult of FFM) need to lead the league in waiver transactions and rejected trade offers. Not making totally ridiculous offers, but offers WE WANT/we think are possible or close/for negotiation...and if they get rejected, so be it.
Most deals will be rejected -- because if you think that the angry FF players hate losing a random FF week...getting beat in a deal is the lowest form of life they could live. When you make offers, the FF-angry/FF-know-it-alls (you know, the kinda people who have a personal commentary on everyone’s pick in your redraft, etc.) will go into deep study and seek counsel and trade analysis software and sacrifice chickens to their trade god idol to figure out whether they should do a deal or not. It’s just the way it is. You have to get comfortable being rejected. It’s the highest form of FF consciousness...right up there with taking verbal abuse without reacting from the same know-it-all jackass/es in your league who have to comment on everyone’s draft picks or lineups or whatever.
You’re mostly playing FF against the highly angry and agitated (and impulsive, irrational) or you’re playing against the asleep or the friendly mainstream-lockstep-thinking group. There’s an opportunity to steal from all of them. Now is the time to go after the teams that have strayed from the herd and are ready to be pounced on – the 1-3, 0-4, and/or just lost last week people are always targets. The just won last week or 3-1/4-0 owners are more difficult to deal with...right now. We’ll see about what category they’re in next week.
By and large, most FFMers are tracking with a winning record right now...and the rosters are deep, and the beautiful BYE week stretch is coming. Your job, for those in a great place, is to figure out how to make it greater or just stand pat. It’s not your job to go make 13 deals just to make deals and derail everything. Keep your hands on the steering wheel...you’re leading/in the race and you got that fastest car and we’re only a quarter of the way through the race. We’re about to hit the accelerator.
For the 1-3/0-4 teams who think I’m making the ‘good news’ all up because your teams have lost a bunch so far and you’re angry and frustrated – I will keep saying it, your season is not over, not even close...but if you get emotional about it and play angry, you are gonna sink your ship...you are the ones I want the others in control to go target. Don’t be a n unwitting target.
Most of the ‘bad’ FFM teams have Joe Burrow involved in some way. You couldn’t control that the great QB of the past would be listed as uninjured to start the season, despite the known calf issue...and everyone from him to the team telling us he was fine, and then he obviously wasn’t/isn’t. He cost you Week 1...might have cost you Week 2...then a bad luck matchup or sit-start choice might have happened to force a loss Week 3 or 4. I just listed excuses for a reason – they’re legit reasons...without the Burrow incident (or whatever early pain hit) you might have won games off the jump, done different waivers, lineups, and deals and who knows. You might have a really good team with bad luck and a major sore spot that’s fixed now (with other QBs or great waiver grabs at other issue positions) and you’re set for a run during the bye weeks.
0-4 teams (and thus 1-3 teams), of which there are very few remaining in our vast tracking...I will say it over and over, because it’s true, and you need to cling onto it – you’re one win away from 1-4 and the last playoff spot being 2-3, and you’re a game out of the playoffs with 8-9-10 weeks to go. It’s ridiculous and childish to give up right now. Yes, you’re in a hole...but part of the FF fun is digging out from it, the planning, the strategy. FFMers who have gone through this before they have lived it, seen the turn from just sticking with it...I wish they could tell you their stories direct. The BYE weeks are where we usually shine and make our collective moves, especially the teams who had hard luck starts.
Whether you’re 0-4 or 4-0, the task remains the same...buy low, sell high, keep your eyes open for waiver opportunities...and you never know what gem I will unearth in my tape studies this week that could literally save a season. Keep your head...and target the weak, don’t be the weak to be targeted.
Let’s go hunting...together, as a team: https://youtu.be/K7SR0_rhMSo?si=nMroCsuLQsbwhuld&t=44
--THREE THINGS--
*What I saw live...and it may change as I watch the tape all this week, but these are my first impressions/notes from the live watch.
ATL-JAX
-- Three clear takeaways here...
1 of 3: A.J. Terrell (3 tackles) is shutting down opposing WRs at a high level. He goes after #1 opposing WRs...and makes their QBs look the other way to avoid AJT. Thus, our prop bet on the UNDER for Calvin Ridley (2-38-1/2...1/3 QS) last weekend...and it came through. Ridley also came through with a TD...on busted coverage on the safety over.
Just know – if your ace WR is facing ATL, he’s gonna get a tussle and pressure on his projections. Tank Dell or Nico Collins draws him next week and then Terry McLaurin Week 6.
-- 2 of 3: Defensive coordinators are almost always a year behind most trends. Detroit laid out the blueprint to contain Bijan Robinson (14-105-0, 5-32-0/5...3/1 QS) Week 3, and Jacksonville didn’t really follow it – that I saw. Bijan is taking everything outside because he doesn’t work as well inside...and you want to get him out in space. Detroit bracketed Bijan last week and squashed him. The Jags just let Bijan roam freely.
I’m just gonna assume Bijan goes well every week unless he is facing ‘smarter’ run defenses...Tennessee or maybe the 49ers. You haven’t, in 2023, and you won’t see non-RB1/top 15 RB projections from us on Bijan unless they face Tennessee, maybe. Bijan will be money every week until I see defenses shift to do what Detroit did.
-- 3 of 3: Kyle Pitts (2-21-0/4...0/4 QS) is FF-meaningless with Arthur Smith. Jonnu Smith (6-95-0/6) has now surpassed Pitts in catches and yards and TDs for the season...on one less target. What is the point of scouting these players for individual talent...when coaches come along and destroy their careers/earning potential? Not that Pitts is hurting for money...
MIA-BUF
-- I thought De’Von Achane (8-101-2, 3-19-0/5...2/1 QS) would have reduced touches this week, working behind Raheem Mostert (7-9-0, 3-36-0/5...2/2 QS), and he did – but credit to him he got a couple scores and went 100+ yards with it. He’ll be the hottest player in FF this upcoming week...arguably hotter than Bijan Robinson for a moment or two...it’s that hot.
And this week...everyone will try to sell Raheem Mostert (7-9-0, 3-36-0/5), because FF thoughts only go as far back (and forward) as ‘what happened in their last game’. The time to sell high was last week...but everyone was drunk on the Dolphins. Now, there will be some panic on everyone in Miami but Achane. If that’s how you play Fantasy (tossing to and fro based on ‘last game’)...then that’s how you play it, and I can’t convince you otherwise. If you play having no patience or context with an expectation of never losing in FF or handicapping, because losing is the worst – and losses mean you must punish the players the upcoming week. I don’t get it but I just described most people I know who play FF.
I’m not saying this (constantly) to admonish the ‘sky is falling (in perpetuity)’ FF owners. It’s for everyone else not like this to know/really KNOW these people and to attack them this week – seek out those owners that just lost, just had players underperform this past game, and are (1-3 or 0-4). They will do anything to punish the losses/underperformers. They will do anything to intervene to feel like they are ‘doing something’. You think I’m crazy with some of the ‘buy low’ thoughts on players week-to-week (you say, ‘no one in my league is that crazy to make those trades – and I say: you’re not trying hard enough and you buy other people’s bullshit reactions to your offers/talks too easily.
I get to see dozens of leagues in action every week/season, I can tell you this ‘sky is falling constantly’ and ‘player punishment’ mindset is not just some or even ‘the majority’ -- it is almost a guarantee that this is the mindset of FF owners when things go wrong prior week or two. Go look at deal opportunities.
-- The Bills are rolling now...they will probably be the ‘team of the week’ in the media, stealing the mantle from Miami. Where this FF pace can keep up for Bills things is – it looks like they’ve lost Tre’Davious White for the season to an injury. If so, the Bills defense will be as wobbly as the Dolphins without Jalen Ramsey...so the Bills will need to win with offense, which is sweet for FF.
-- Dalton Kincaid (4-27-0/5...0/4 QS) was second on the team in catches and targets, but unless you’re Stefon Diggs...you don’t matter here. And why should they change from it? I keep looking for signs of an uptick for Kincaid in this offense, but I don’t see it yet. He looks great but ask Kyle Pitts how much that matters.
DEN-CHI
-- I thought that Justin Fields (28-35 for 335 yards, 4-25-0...1/3 QS) was ‘a hold’, if you could (on the Sunday morning show), in case THIS happened...a big game versus the single worst defense I’ve ever seen Well, it HAPPENED...you will see Fields’ name again soon, on the ‘SELL HIGH’ list.
-- ...and D.J. Moore (8-131-1/9...2/2 QS) and Cole Kmet (8-85-2/9...1/3 QS) will likely join him.
Basically, anything facing Denver is a hot play ahead. But...they get the Jets Week 5, so...that will be interesting to try to project.
Denver has KC Week 6. Wonder what the spread on that will be? Wonder what the projections on Mahomes and Pacheco will be :)
-- Jaleel McLaughlin (7-72-0, 3-32-1/3...1/3 QS) had a game... Javonte Williams (2-0-0, 3-9-0/3...0/4 QS) got hurt and left the game early and the team went to the 3rd-stringer and not the ‘veteran 3rd-down back’. Not all ‘handcuffs’ are real handcuffs.
BAL-CLE
-- Dorian Thompson-Robinson (19-36 for 121 yards, 0 TD/3 INT, 4-24-0) caused this loss. A surprise start he was not totally prepared for. DTR would have two panicked/scared throws followed by a really nice, under control throw. I think he was put into a tough spot last second and it looked discombobulated. Can’t take much away from this game on either side.
-- The bad Browns offense with extra turnovers helped push the Ravens offensive goodness. Lamar Jackson (15-19 for 189 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTS, 9-27-2...3/1 QS) had a weak game tally EXCEPT he got 4 TDs, most of them pre-set up by bad Browns things.
-- Projecting the Browns ahead (BYE this week) is not so much about Deshaun coming back, but I saw OROY Dawand Jones helped off the field during the live watch. If he’s seriously hurt – the Browns fall back to the pack on offense.
PIT-HOU
-- I know many people think I’m some Fantasy loon, but I’m pretty good at watching all this NFL action and getting ‘vibes’ on things. In a particular given week, who knows? But in the big picture, I do a good job. Case in point...what did I say about where George Pickens (3-25-0/7) was headed...and that we all needed to deal after that Week 2 MNF long TD event? If you made that move...how good was that? I don’t issue many EDICTS...but that was one and that is coming into reality. His value is now half of what it was two weeks ago.
With Pickett gone and Diontae coming back...Pickens stock is gonna die.
-- What happened to Tank Dell (1-16-0/3)? I don’t know. I need to see the tape analysis but there were no issues present...just he was either taken away by extra coverage and/or Nico Collins (7-168-2/9) found a new route and was where the money was this week for Stroud.
-- What happens to Dell or Nico or whomever is because of the brilliance of C.J. Stroud (16-30 for 306 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT). I was a big Stroud guy in the pre-Draft scouting, but I NEVER imagined he could be this good, this fast...and allowed to be by DeMeco Ryans. He’s so good...so happy for him and my Houston fans – the Texans are in the division hunt, seriously.
MIN-CAR
-- I watched this game the least on Sunday live...because every time I looked, Bryce Young (25-32 for 204 yards, 0 TD/0 INT...0/4 QS) was doing his typical things – nothing. He did a lot of safe passing, so catch counts weren’t bad but no real juice behind the throws/catches...which will be the story going forward, as predicted.
-- As soon as I endorse Jordan Addison (0-0-0/1...2/2 QS) as ‘being in a good spot’...he lays an egg. I deserve it. I can’t stand him as a scout of such things. Just not my jam. I shoulda stuck with my scouting versus ‘the opportunity’, I’ll check the tape on what happened to this Minny passing game. It was due for a clunker.
-- Going against Carolina’s offense every week with the opposing DST is going to be a good strategy as long as Bryce is at QB. Week 5 = @ Detroit...wow, that will be big. Week 6 = at MIA.
LAR-IND
-- Matt Stafford (27-40 for 319 yards, 1 TD/1 INT...0/4 QS, but nearly 2/2) is playing well...and throwing for yards...but NOT TDs. When they get close to the end zone, teams play the Rams to pass and the Rams go contrarian running little Kyren up the middle for easy scores. It’s smart for the NFL purposes, but not for Stafford FF purposes. That should swing back his way ahead...law of averages and all. IF he can play next week...he’s got a hurt hip that doesn’t look good, from this game.
-- Tutu Atwell (5-24-0/9...3/1 QS) was so close to a 7-8 catch game but he got ruled out of bounds on a catch, just OOB, and had a catch get overturned on replay, etc. The intent was there but the results weren’t. No issues with Tutu...it just wasn’t his day...it was Puka day.
-- Anthony Richardson (11-25 for 200 yards, 10-56-1) is becoming the better Jalen Hurts...and is a QB1 just about every week because the guy is a ‘special’ athlete, and he never says die. Down 23-0 at the half, he came back and tied this thing up single handedly...sending it to OT. He’s advanced for a rookie, like Stroud.
TB-NO
-- Well, Alvin Kamara (11-51-0, 13-33-0/14) didn’t look bad this first week back. A little rusty but overall, as good as you could hope for his debut...but then the 13 cheap/easy catches/14 targets were a PPR blessing...and a sign, I hope, of things to come.
If you were able to (by plan or by no one getting in front of you to ruin it) follow the redraft plan of rounds 2-6/7 of general guidance: Big 3 QB, Keenan, Rachaad, Pacheco, then were able to get Kamara-Aiyuk or Aiyuk-Kamara AND later added Mostert to be a bridge to Kamara – you’re humming now. If you got Pickens instead of Aiyuk, I hope you turned Pickens into Aiyuk or something nice by now, per THE GUIDANCE :)
If you took Waller in the 6/7...that’s not so hot right now. All TEs stink except Kelce...and maybe Andrews. Random events otherwise. The good news...AK is back and he’s getting MASS targeting right away!
-- Speaking of RBs from this game...BEST game of the 2023 season for Rachaad White (15-56-0, 3-22-0/3...1/3 QS). He had two plays, one of them low key sweet, where he was halted just shy of the end zone...then they threw for the damn TDs. White and Isiah Pacheco lead the league in plays halted at the one-yard line...those odds will even out...hopefully.
Seriously, White had some nice 5-8+ yard runs, and a terrific pass catch where he then deked out 2-3 tacklers for 10+ yards to convert a 1st-down in the red zone (and fall shy of a TD by a yard). We actually had a passing play set up ON PURPOSE to him in this game! Look at us growing together!
Have patience...BYE Week 5 then might as well be a BYE with Detroit Week 6...then things start to open up a bit, then freaking TEN-SF Weeks 10-11. How did Rachaad draw the worst run defense schedule in existence out of the NFC South? PHI and SF matchups already were because TB was the division winner last year, and they’re/Rachaad is paying for that now.
-- I figured with Derek Carr’s (23-37 for 127 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) shoulder issue that Chris Olave (1-4-0/6...3/1 QS) would be in a tough spot with Carr’s ability to throw downfield in question. It was. Olave is fine...just a bad momentary circumstance here.
WSH-PHI
-- Good game from Sam Howell (29-41 for 290 yards, 1 TD/0 INT...1/3 QS)...as I thought it could be because last week’s tape wasn’t as bad as I thought it was from the live watch (v. BUF). This game was a sign that Howell isn’t FF dead yet, but also a sign that another thing I’ve been saying is true: there’s some real problems in Philly and their pass defense is one of them. Not to be feared anymore. Run defense, yes. Pass defense, no.
-- Jalen Hurts (25-37 for 319 yards, 2 TD/0 INT, 9-34-0...3/1 QS) is also a problem for Philly 2023. First off, he looks like he chugs a gallon of Nyquil before he goes out to play the week’s game. I get being calm and cool and all that -- but show a little spark for your team...show me that you kinda care what’s happening in these games. At least, take off running like you mean it. I’m serious when I say – I think I might have more FF-confidence in Anthony Richardson right now.
-- Jahan Dotson (4-27-1/9...0/4 QS) finally got a TD this season...nice, but I see ZERO intent from Howell to make him a thing. It more looks like Howell might be discovering lost Curtis Samuel (7-51-0/8, 1-1-1...1/3 QS) instead.
CIN-TEN
-- I’m done with Joe Burrow (20-30 for 165 yards, 0 TD/0 INT...0/4 QS)...for now.
I mean, I already was done after Week 1...had to make Plan B plans, but now it’s really done...for now. Most every FFM tracking team that’s lagging at (1-3 or 0-4) has Burrow DNA splattered all over it. Whether it’s Burrow direct...or he’s bringing down Mixon-Chase-Higgins.
All we can do is hang onto Burrow, if possible, and see if he heals up in 1-2-3 weeks and is ready for a stretch run. Buit, honestly, all the Purdy-Stroud-Stafford plans look pretty good and the A. Richardson drafting as a #2 or acquired the past week or so. In redraft, if you pull the Burrow release latch...because you have a nice 1-2 QB punch behind him or ahead of him – I don’t have much of a case to keep Burrow in redraft right now.
-- Hey, the old Derrick Henry (22-122-1, 1-11-0/1, 1-1 for 2 yards and 1 TD/0 INT) finally showed up! It was only a matter of time, but was harrowing how it looked prior and the snap splits with Tyjae Spears (5-40-0, 3-18-0/4). But, he hasn’t left us...he was here all along.
-- What to do with Tee Higgins (2-19-0/4) and Joe Mixon (14-67-0, 1-9-0/1)?
Tee looks like crap. All you can do is bench him or sell him off in a deal as part of the package...or if he’s gonna miss a month+, and can’t I.R. him you gotta move on.
Mixon actually looks really good (but the CIN offense is beyond shaky...0/4 QS, close to 1/3) but facing TEN here...everyone is getting whacked by TEN and DET in the run game. Mixon is a hold and matchup starter.
LV-LAC
-- Aidan O’Connell (24-39 for 238 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) didn’t look great...as I feared Sunday morning when the news hit, but there was hope he’s be ‘OK’ facing the Chargers terrible pass defense – and AOC almost had a couple TD passes but he couldn’t seal the deal. They’ll go back to Jimmy G. next week...maybe. If Las Vegas is cashing out, then they’ll go to AOC.
-- I was shocked to see Justin Herbert (13-24 for 167 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 12-27-2...4/0 QS) with such paltry numbers (but did rush for 2 TDs). I thought he’d light up LV without CB Nate Hobbs (or with him) – but it was a muted game. I’ll have to see what the cause was when I watch the tape...maybe his finger issue (non-throwing hand) was a factor.
-- Davante Adams (8-75-0/13...3/1 QS) missed about 1-2 quarters of this game getting checked out with an injury back in the locker room, but they got him back playing and he came back in and almost won the game on his own at the end. Davante works with all QBs...not just Aaron Rodgers.
NE-DAL
-- Welp, we got our first QB change-a-comin’, the end of the Mac Jones (12-21 for 150 yards, 0 TD/2 INTs) era is coming closer and close – Mac about to be benched for Bailey Zappe (4-9 for 57 yards, 0 TD/0 INT)...and it’s a long time coming.
When it finally happens, you’ll hear all this nonsense about how bad Zappe was in the preseason, but Zappe had to work behind a broken backup O-Line and has the O-C Bill O’Brien working against him because B.O.B. is into Mac from their days in Alabama together. Zappe is good enough to make a run at overcoming the awful Patriots offensive roster, but I don’t see a path to anything but QB2 at best here.
-- Jake Ferguson (7-77-0/7) got himself onto the TE merry-go-round of streaming with this game. Nothing special...just Dallas working the TE in a blowout. He’s a TE1 potential any given week, like all TEs who start are in the NFL...they’re all a TD away from being TE1s for the week.
-- Michael Gallup (5-60-0/6) the past two games: 5.5 rec. (6.5 targets), 71.0 yards, 0.0 TDs. Just 1.0 rec. (2.0 targets), 6.5 yards per game the first two weeks. Maybe something is happening here?
ARI-SF
-- Brandon Aiyuk (6-148-0/6) is a WR1...what else can I say? That shoulder injury put him off the radar for a bit but make no mistake -- Aiyuk is the guy here, not Deebo...but they can co-exist and both FF-succeed, but Aiyuk is ‘the guy’ for Purdy, the real WR.
-- I thought I’d have more time to deal with Michael Wilson (7-76-2/7) in redraft...I thought he’d be 3-4-5 weeks from now maybe, but he may be here already. I still think it’s a blip and we shouldn’t expect consistency ahead just yet, but hand’s have been forced.
-- Zach Ertz (6-53-0/10) ended up not having a bad week facing SF’s stout defense vs. the TE. Also, Ertz had a TD pass go right through his hands at the end of the game...or he’d be a priority for people on waivers, but he won’t be near as hot after missing that TD. Hope you were able to get him ahead.
KC-NYJ
-- We had Isiah Pacheco (20-115-1, 3-43-0/3) ranked pretty highly for the week going into this game, and BINGO. A combination of Pacheco is good mixed with the fact that you beat the Jets on the ground not the air. YTD, Pacheco is #12 in PPR total points on the season. He’s the one emerging of the Rachaad-Pacheco plan. I’ll take it.
-- Breece Hall (6-56-0, 3-13-0/4) looks like the better of the two 2022 Draft class RBs (Pacheco or Breece) on tape to me, right now – but Pacheco has the way better surrounding circumstances...part of the reason why we chased Pacheco.
-- Did Zach Wilson (28-39 for 245 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) arrive on SNF...or was it just a lucky/hot night? I think it was real, which changes everything on how we project Jets things going forward. I need to rewatch the tape here – but this will be quite the game report coming up (will be out on Tuesday).
===== FIVE PLAYERS =====
*** FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO TRUST***
*Looking at players owned less than 50% on average in leagues across the whole FF-landscape. Your league, obviously, may be different/deeper.
**Adding a school grade to show my interest level (A-F)…and I don’t mean that a D-F grade is ‘bad’/just showing how pressing/important to me, your situation may differ due to injury, etc..
***IF FAAB% mentioned at any time below is based on a 16–20-man roster/12-team league. And it’s hard to predict the right bid % because every league, situation, lineup needs are so different. So, doing the best I can to ‘project’ (i.e. ‘guess’) what they will be based on early chatter.
*Again, note…not a grade on talent…just how important/urgent/great the waiver move is in context.
1: QB C.J. Stroud, HOU (Grade: A)
I don’t know how he is still under 50% owned, and I know most everyone reading this either grabbed him or doesn’t need an extra QB – but for those who missed out – THIS is happening...a rookie is 4 weeks into his career and is already one of the 15 best QBs in the league and will only get better from here.
2: TE Zach Ertz, ARI (Grade: B)
Another 6-catch game Week 4...making it three 6-catch game in 4 weeks. He also had a walk-in, easy TD at the end of his Week 4 game go right through his hands. Had he caught it, people would be doubly all over him off waivers this week.
I know many of you are squatting on him already, but for everyone else – this has top 5 TE potential in PPR. This is a/the TE answer, I think...among the ‘middle class’ TEs.
3: TE Tyler Higbee, LAR (Grade: C+)
11 targets for Higbee Week 4 and back-to-back 5 catch games the last two weeks. He is the TE consolation prize if you can’t get Ertz. Good offense and Higbee is in good with the QB.
4: WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Grade: C-)
I thought we’d have time for this...and it may be too early to go in on, but he was my #1 graded/ranked WR for the 2023 NFL Draft. He just had a big game Week 4. I think it could have hope going forward because Joshua Dobbs is a very solid QB. But just as likely, Wilson is going to have a 2-3 catch for 35 yards game in Week 5, and everyone loses faith soon after.
5: RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN (Grade: D)
Javonte Williams might miss a game and thus McLaughlin would get a timeshare run with Samaje Perine in the Denver backfield. He’s a scrappy UDFA rookie who could have a decent game...if you’re looking for touches from anywhere at RB this week. IF Javonte misses a game, which he likely is (hip flexor).
6: WR Tyler Boyd, CIN (Grade: D-)
Tee Higgins is going to miss some time (how long affects how important this is) and that will ‘up’ Boyd’s targets in this offense...the problem is – this offense stinks.
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***FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO DISTRUST***
1: TE Drew Ogletree, IND
Had a 3-48-1/4 week for Indy but he’s just a part-time rotational TE, not the starter...but he is decent – just not a main guy. And Jelani Woods may be returning this week.
2: WR Braxton Berrios, MIA
Low on the pecking order for targets but he had a decent Week 4 and scored a TD, and I know he’s on the ‘holy’ Dolphins but you won’t see any consistency from Berrios with Tyreek-Waddle-Raheem-Achane ahead of him.
3: TE Jonnu Smith, TEN
I don’t trust any TE on the Falcons, even their best/favorite one...Jonnu. Nice Week 5...but can’t be sustainable, I wouldn’t think.
4: TE Dalton Schultz, HOU
In a good spot as the TE on the high-flying Texans with C.J. Stroud, but he looks so slow and ineffective. I don’t care that Devin Singletary threw him a trick pass TD Week 4. He’s stunk all season.
5: WR Jameson Williams, DET
If you have an empty spot on the roster and are dying to take a look, you can go for it. There is talent here. It’s just from everything I’ve seen of him so far, it’s been nothing bad...from not being pushed into playing time or targets last year, to silly off field activities that show a lack of IQ, to drops and problems in training camp. I don’t think Dan Campbell will have a ton of patience here...JW could get the Kadarius Toney treatment...15-20 snaps...2-5 targets a game and hope something clicks.
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***FIVE BUY LOW PLAYERS***
*NOT ‘Buy at any price’…it’s Buy LOW. Try to find a deal. If none to be had, walk away. It’s also NOT…go immediately ask the owner ‘What do you want for ____’, don’t telegraph your desires.*
This week’s focus, if you need it: Looking for OUBRBs (older, useful, boring RBs...boring to the rookie-anything loving zombies). And OUBRBs on FF teams that just won last game or have winning records...not as easy/cheap to get. But from the FF teams that lost last week or having losing records right now – the panickers are capable of doing anything knee-jerk and they want to punish non-performers on their roster. I know it as sure as I sit here. I just don’t know which owner/s fits that bill in your league.
And I’m not saying this is easy...or that you should bull rush in and ask for these guys directly and cause a stir from their current owners. Slowly creep around not targeting any one player...you portray a character, like in a play of... ‘I’m looking to make deals’ or ‘I wanna change my roster up’ or ‘I’m mad as hell at my team for losing last week’. Don’t skip the foreplay...or you’re gonna make this 5-30x as difficult.
1: RB Breece Hall, NYJ
This is a tricky one... 2023 has been a disaster. Hall is not even in the top 30 or so RBs in PPG this season. He’s averaging 8.0 carries per game this season and 24.4 yards rushing per game in the last three weeks. He has yet to score a TD. He’s getting to be near ‘cut’ levels in some redrafts.
However, I think the Jets did have a major breakthrough on SNF Week 4, and the time to get in on it cheap is right now...while people think it’s a fluke. More on this Jets thing all this week.
In redraft, I want in on this at RB2 pricing on a potential RB1...knowing the risk this might get broken again because of the O-Line and O-C. But you want a shot at hidden greatness ready to pop – it’s Hall for me right now.
Dynasty...it’s tricky because he has ‘a name’, so it’s not super cheap...but it’s at the lowest prices of his career. It’s a name to invest in for now...and for the future, if it comes reasonably. Again, more on this in the NYJ-KC report that will be out Tuesday...you might read that before you make a plan of attack.
RB Jerome Ford, CLE
Bad game to possibly blame on the late QB change and then the game got out of the Browns normal flow. People might be seeing Ford as a lame duck RB...and RB2/3, but I see a potential RB1/2 behind a great O-Line and I’m not afraid of Kareem Hunt. Bad game...low touch counts last two weeks...bye Week 5...a perfect time to invest/steal.
2: QB Brock Purdy, SF
Everyone has finally AND only moved to the conclusion that Purdy is ‘not terrible’...they haven’t realized that Purdy might be ‘the next Tom Brady’. I’m not joking. Nor am I saying it for sure, but I am saying – Purdy is closer to ‘great’ than ‘not terrible’. His numbers are rising...and they were already great before. Buy a QB1 here for QB1.5/2.0 prices. Purdy is your Burrow salvation you should have already gotten (in some cases) but there’s still time if you want to pivot off Stafford or add to Stroud Burrow-emergency plans.
3: RB Aaron Jones, GB
Nice Week 1...the #1 RB in FF scoring after Week 1. But that was like 2-3 years ago, it seems. Since then: missed two games hurt and came back Week 4 and got crushed by the RB killers (the Detroit defense). His recent is outweighing Week 1 sentiment. He’s an RB2 pricing desire...or I’m not even discussing anything.
4: RB James Conner, ARI
Just looking for OUBRBs who are their team’s clear #1, ones who had a down week last week – and a down week here vs. SF is no shame. Everyone thinks Arizona stinks, but they are a top 15 team in the league and pushed back against SF pretty well Week 4. Things were closer than the score indicated. But take advantage of the sentiment on Conner being old/coring and on a ‘sad’ (not sad to us) Arizona team.
5: WR Jakobi Meyers, NE
Down week with Aidan O’Connell...a good time to buy a solid+ WR2 for WR3 pricing. Either we get Jimmy G. back and get a boost back to WR1.5 Jakobi...or...what if Davante is traded in the next few weeks? Jakobi WR1/1.5? And if they turn to AOC as QB...he’s OK enough to make it work as he gets more comfortable.
6: RB Rachaad White, TB
Going /falling down to RB3 pricing...and I’ll take your stock from you. It was secretly the best game he’s played in 2023...was Week 4. BYE Week 5, so then even more available in redraft (or Dynasty). It’s not going to be as great a FF scoring event as I hoped in 2023, but it could be a very useful RB2 with RB1 upside on his talent capability.
7: RB Joe Mixon, CIN
The clear #1 RB on a dreadful offense so far. What if Burrow gets it together in a week or two? What if he doesn’t? You still have a useful (OUBRB) RB2 in PPR to rotate through bye weeks. I am only buying/stealing Mixon as like an RB2.5 valuation. If the owner says ‘no’...then onto the next OUBRB.
8: WR Elijah Moore, CLE
As a throw-in WR3 price, not a gut to go specifically target/isolate to get per se...but wait for your waivers to run, he might be cut in some leagues. Good PPR depth for the bye weeks ahead. Not hot...just I see a potential free steal or near-free steal here.
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***FIVE SELL HIGH PLAYERS***
*NOT ‘Sell at any price’…it’s sell HIGH/sell good. Try to find someone in love with your player or seen as a neat value thrown into a multiplayer deal. If no one respects the player/buys right…then walk away.*
1: QB Justin Fields, CHI
This is a gift from God...this Week 4 vs. Denver.
You either believe Fields ‘figured it out’ (possible) or that Denver is God’s gift defense to face in FF. I’ve seen Weeks 1-2-3 and 4...I’ll choose the ‘it’s Denver’ side of the equation. You choose what you want.
2: WR D.J. Moore, CHI
See the above logic.
3: RB De’Von Achane, MIA
I would only sell as a top 3-5 RB1...like what you would consider trading Bijan Robinson as – that’s how you would value an Achane sell. You can hold...and you probably will because the allure of the last two weeks is too palpable and the Miami offense is a good thing to have an RB in, but this may not keep up at the historic pace we’ve seen. Achane is human. He’s good but not the elite of elites...he’s good in a great spot right now. If you wanted to flip this for the moon and stars, you’re not crazy to explore it. You don’t have to sell, but you’ll be shocked at what offers you’d get.
4: WR Romeo Doubs, GB
People love Doubs + he just had a big catch count week. He’s a WR1.5 for some now...because they have been waiting for this Doubs day. You don’t have to sell him. He’s useful, but you might be surprised at the return you could get here. I don’t think he’s made a ‘turn’ but targets are as important as what my eyes see.
5: WR George Pickens, PIT
If Kenny Pickett is gone for months or the season...Pickens is even more dead than before. Get what you can out of him.
6: WR Michael Thomas, NO
Solid PPR WR who can be a throw-in on a deal you’re wanting to make 1-for-1 but you throw Thomas in and then go grab a WR off waivers to have hope in. Thomas is very capable but lacks juice. He’s not dead, but limited upside...and has a name people still have some respect for.
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***FIVE DEEP SLEEPER WAIVER PICKUPS***
*Total flier/lowly owned or not-owned players
1: QB Zach Wilson, NYJ
Well...maybe I’m not so dumb a scout after all! Sometimes, it takes three years before I’m proven right! If you believe that Wilson has found ‘it’ – then he’s an interesting #2/3 QB for you in deeper roster redraft (if you’re dying at #2 QB and the waivers are dried up), and a real target in Superflex, or a #3 QB for Dynasty to see where this goes.
Wilson is not only a gifted thrower, but that dude can run.
2: QB Joshua Dobbs, ARI
I’m not sure I can tell the difference between Jalen Hurts and Josh Dobbs right now...except one of them plays with a fiery passion and the other looks like he downed a gallon of Melatonin before the game. In 4pts pass TD, Dobbs is rushing for 40+ yards a game in each of his last 3 games.
3: RB Ronnie Rivers, LAR
What I was saying about Rivers the past two weeks...Ta-Da!
There’s not a ton of difference between he and Kyren, and I think that there will be more sharing for preservation/health purposes ahead. And he’s ‘the handcuff’.
4: RB Kendre Miller, NO
The likely handcuff if Alvin Kamara goes down...for those with AK...or without.
5: TE Luke Musgrave, GB
He may be hitting the waiver wire this week due to the concussion and worry he may not clear for Week 5. All he’s guilty of is getting concussed at a bad time.
6: WR Michael Gallup, DAL
5.5 catches per game the last two weeks...a sudden renaissance in Gallup for Dak, or just a blip? If a rookie gets this blip, everyone piles in. A veteran does and ‘yaaaawnnnn’.
7: WR Terrace Marshall, CAR
5 and 9 catches in a game the past two weeks...while Jon Mingo was set inactive Week 4. Romeo Doubs gets 9 catches Week 4, and everyone swoons. Marshall does it the same week and ‘yaaaawnnnn’.
I know it’s Bryce Young, but someone has to catch all the garbage time passes aside from Thielen.
8: WR Rashee Rice, KC
If a ‘favorite’ of Mahomes emerges...it will be Rice or nobody.
9: QB Bailey Zappe, NE
I think the move to Zappe is upon us. Mac Jones is all but dead.
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-- FIVE…IT’S OK TO QUIT THEM PLAYERS (for REDRAFT) --
1: TE Juwan Johnson, NO
The Saints offense is dying, and Juwan already died with it prior, but now he’s really dead.
2: QB Derek Carr, NO
So many other QBs have passed him by.
3: WR Calvin Austin, PIT
With Kenny Pickett gone...and Diontae coming back, I’m even more done with Steelers things than before. Nothing against Austin, whom I like.
4: WR K.J. Osborn, MIN
He always looks like one of the worst WRs in the NFL to me. I try to pick spots with him as ‘the other guy’ with Justin Jefferson but he sucks so bad it rarely works. I’m done even trying.
5: WR Skyy Moore, KC
Completely irrelevant. We tried. It failed. Moving on.
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***STREAMING DSTs OFF WAIVER(?) OPTIONS***--
1: Lions-DST
An emerging defense we highlighted last week in this spot as well. An emerging DST with a nice schedule ahead...
Week 5 v. CAR
Week 6 at TB
Week 7 at BAL
Week 8 v. LV
I could use them every week there for lack of any better options.
Weeks 9-10 are BYE and at LAC, but then we get going again with a great stretch of:
Week 11 v. CHI
Week 12 v. GB
Week 13 at NO
Week 14 at CHI
Week 15 v. DEN
2: Commanders-DST
Week 5 v. CHI
Week 6 at ATL
Week 7 at NYG
Week 8 v. PHI is not good
Week 9 at NE
Not a bad little schedule ahead.
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-- Sleeper/lesser-name IDPs whose box scores or live watch caught my attention --
1: TB Christian Izien, TB
7.0 tackles the past two weeks...and has 2 picks this season. He’s getting more and more comfortable as a UDFA rookie to starter for TB.
2: TB Zyon McCollum, TB
I graded McCollum as a top 10 NFL Draft asset in 2022...well, now he’s starting to be a heavy snap player/fill-in starter...might be a full starter soon. 5.0 tackles and 1.0 PDs per game the past two weeks.
3: SAF Delarrin Turner-Yell, DEN
Filling in at safety the past two weeks, he’s averaging 11.0 tackles per game Weeks 3-4.
4: CB Isaac Yiadom, NO
Started this week, played like a starter the last two weeks...averaging 6.0 tackles and 3.0 PDs per game in that time. He’s a try hard corner starting to make some noise.
5: DE Myles Murphy, CIN
Nothing for Weeks 1-2-3, but 3 tackles and a sack in Week 4. A sign of life for a talented pass rusher.
Outro for Week 4:
Most of you reading this are sitting on a really good team that’s off to a promising, almost ‘too good/easy’ start to the season (once we got past Week 1). We got a real shot this year to take home a record % of titles. Every week is an opportunity to improve the roster, by any means available. Keep researching and grinding.
Go there and take it: https://youtu.be/VbP4k3zY-N0?si=G4G0JIQugFyMDYVL
