Game Overview...
The Browns won big but not because the Titans are hapless, but because the Browns are just a very complete team with arguably the best O-Line/D-Line combo advantage in the league right now – and the Titans simply couldn’t hang with it.
The Browns should be (3-0) right now, if not for the unfortunate/lucky turnover-TDs they gave up to inferior Pittsburgh. Cleveland has become one of the best all-around teams in football. Dawand Jones should be the Rookie of the Year leader right now, but he won’t even get a vote...or may not be on the ballot.
Tennessee’s O-Line is causing too many problems to expect the Titans to go out and handle a really good team like the Browns. Tennessee has played a very tough schedule so far, and usually finds a way to be in every game at the end – but not here. The Browns were just too superior.
I think we’re all taking the Browns too lightly in the public – is my takeaway here. They are really good, and they just manhandled a very tough Titans team.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB ...point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the QUALITY mark, and 2 times they did not (this current season).
Player Dynasty/Fantasy Notes...
-- Jerome Ford (10-18-1, 2-33-1/3) looks like a mini-Nick Chubb. Ford is a nice talent but he’s going to get an extra advantage that most all NFL RBs aren’t going to get – Ford is going to run behind (arguably) the best O-Line in the game.
Ford can be an RB1 on this team, even with Kareem Hunt (5-13-0, 2-22-0/3) nosing his way in to touches.
Ford is the lead...not Hunt. It’s not a 50-50 split, it’s more 65-35 (or better), old Chubb/Hunt split 2021-like -- but Ford can get numbers in this offense, behind that O-Line with just 65% of the snaps/work.
Ford is a somewhat ‘buy low’. Yes, he had two TDs Week 3...so, he’s untouchable/a god for some people – but there might be enough pressure going in the other direction where he might be reasonably available in the right exchange. Not cheap...not a steal, just ‘available’ fairly-ish. There’s a lot of fear of Hunt taking this job – I want to play into that and get Ford if the existing owner isn’t clutching onto him as hard as they should...and if I have the key hype player to unlock it. I’m buying him as a random RB2...anything higher and I’ll pass. I’m looking for a deal, not a chase.
If you held Hunt since the preseason, but you don’t have Ford – it’s more of a priority...and you should be willing to spend properly to get into to be involved in this backfield.
In Ford’s first two heavy play time with Chubb gone (the last two weeks), he’s a (2/0 QS).
I wanna be with the ‘middle class’ RBs running behind top O-Lines and/or high-flying offenses...offenses where an ex-defensive coordinator is not the current head coach setting the offensive agenda.
-- And a place where we have a dying O-Line + an ex-D-C as HC: Tennessee.
There’s a reason why Derrick Henry (11-20-0) is the #26 RB in PPR PPG so far this season. Henry has faced two top run defenses (Wk 1 and 3) and a mediocre one (Wk 2/LAC)...and it’s been weak results and looks rough/hopeless on tape.
Henry is an (0/3 QS) so far this season...shocking.
I love Derrick Henry, as a player/career, and this O-Line may gel as we go, but I’m not sensing any urge to buy low on Henry. He’s a hold for me. I’m not selling low, but I’m not trying to buy right now either. Tennessee has no passing game to help take pressure off defenses stacking the line when Henry is in the game. There’s hope this starts clicking for Henry...but there’s also a lot of reason to worry this is going to be the season – Henry running up the middle into 7–9-man boxes with a poor O-Line that can’t handle it.
Understand this...and this is shocking...
Snap count in this game at RB for TEN: Spears 27, Henry just 18...the 2nd of 3 games this season where Spears played more snaps.
YTD snap counts for TEN RBs:
91 = Spears
88 = Henry
*NOTE* Henry is having the same issue as Rachaad White, only White’s play calls/play designs and O-Line are 5x worse than Henry’s. The only RB who has it worse than Rachaad right now is Breece Hall. And Mike Vrabel isn’t calling out Henry in the press after this loss demanding he stay up the middle only and take 1 yard a carry and be happy.
But I want to note Rachaad here because – when I wrote the TB-PHI game report and blasted away on Rachaad’s situation...it wasn’t a signal to sell him off, it was a note that I have no expectations that he’ll be a high-end PPR RB1 anymore in 2023. What I’ve seen of the way they are using him is way different than 2022 and it's going to restrict him to a solid RB2 part of your RB rotations on matchups. He’s not dead...he’s just not a white knight to save anybody right now – he’s a high touch count, low ypc, hope he scores a TD RB1.5-2.0 depending on how many TDs. Whatever that info means to you, as an owner, as a buy low person...apply that logic...it’s the way I’m treating him. When things change or head in whatever direction, I gotta call it out so we can have a course of action. Most of my course of action is ‘hold’/use and look to ‘buy super low’ or get off waivers if he flops against a solid Saints run defense.
I’m not leaving him. He will probably be on the buy low list next week. Just...my expectations on him are adjusted. Tampered down.
-- DeAndre Hopkins (3-48-0/7, 0/3 QS) was brought in to help give Tennessee a passing game, but it’s not working well. I think Hopkins looks fine, it’s just Tannehill is not the guy to consistently see this through...and they are just getting used to each other. I don’t see a ‘buy low’ here yet, but I’d have an eye on buying very low. With better matchups, I think this might start to work for Hopkins-Tannehill.
Week 4 v. CIN is not that matchup. This may not start clicking until the 2nd-half of the season...or whenever Will Levis takes over. It won’t work at all with Malik Willis...that’s not Willis’s game, yet.
-- Tyjae Spears (4-6-0, 4-3-0/4, 0/3 QS) is also a victim to the Tennessee O-Line/offense. They are trying to get him out in space but it’s not working. Spears should still be part of a holding-Derrick Henry plan. Spears is a different kind of worker that might get decent PPR numbers if he had to take over the backfield on a Henry injury.
-- The best things I saw in this game...
1: The Browns-DST...it’s real. I didn’t fully get onboard early enough. BUT there’s also a case that the Browns D has had help with the schedule so far...
Week 1 vs. ailing Burrow.
Week 2 vs. the Steelers nightmare offense
Week 3 vs. the Titans bad O-Line/QB combo.
Shaky Lamar Week 4, then a BYE followed by Week 6 v. SF. After that, it’s pretty clean for the CLE-DST.
2: The Browns O-Line and what it allows for Jerome Ford’s running ability.
3: The usage/breakout (maybe) of Elijah Moore (9-49-0/9, 3-0-0...0/3 QS).
Finally, the Browns used Moore like they should – a bunch of short, quick passes and jet sweeps designed to get Moore in space, up to speed with the ball in his hands. It’s a simple throw in the offense because of the Browns O-Line allowing Watson the time to do simple things.
I think this volume holds up...whether he gets any TDs and impressive yardage with it, we’ll see. But the O-Line and focus of opponents on Amari...it all helps Moore to be a PPR producer.
Snap Counts of Interest:
63 = DPJ
57 = Amari
54 = Elijah Moore
52 = Njoku
40 = Ford
14 = Hunt
08 = Strong
39 = Westbrook-Ikhine
39 = Okonkwo
36 = Burks
35 = Hopkins
27 = Spears
18 = Henry
