Intro:
Welp, the merciless beatings of our opponents in FF has continued Week 3...another huge week, overall view/tracking, for the FFM universe. Many big wins, high scores of the week in your league, the previous winless teams getting their first win booked without any MNF hassle...we’re tracking a 65% win-rate already locked in with 75-80%+ win-rate in range if guys like Rachaad White, Jalen Hurts, Tutu Atwell, and the Rams-DST comes through.
This week, high FFM-ownership % guys like Tyreek, Mahomes, Keenan, Tank Dell, and Raheem Mostert obliterated opponents because many of you have more than one...or two, some all five of the guys just mentioned.
There’s not much more that I can say, other than...
1: The ‘plan’ is working. Investing in the QB. Putting together a non-heavily invested RB group and working waivers. Giving into the OEWRs...the older, elite wide receivers. Fading the tight end outside of Kelce. It’s all ‘working’ in our FFM group tracking.
2: Remember how bad Week 1 was? Barely a memory anymore, but a handful of people cancelled their monthly subscription renewals the following Monday/Tuesday. Now, look where we are at.
3: You take a great redraft plan (so far) and mix that with ‘patience’ to get through the Week 1 without getting too hysterical and then you add in the waiver wire brilliance taking place then factor in we’re about to hit the bye weeks where our depth/scouting really shines – there is reason for great enthusiasm and optimism for this 2023 campaign.
But let post-Week 1 emotions be a lesson (those who got blown out) – everything in FF cannot be about ‘what happened last week is law/the future forever’. In fact, losing Week 1 was a gift because it set many up as the top 1-2-3 waiver for the key/fertile Week 2 free agency period...leading to our players popping the following two weeks.
Things are going very well right now, overall in FFM-land...could wind up the best Weeks 2-3 punch we’ve ever delivered/tracked.
I haven’t mentioned two other groups yet...
1: Dynasty folks...things are going well there too, but for the first time in a while FFM tracked Dynasty teams having a lower tracked win% than redraft at the moment. But good nights by Rachaad and Hurts, FFM Dynasty cornerstones, could catch the Dynasty win rate up with redraft tracking.
2: There will be a few (0-3) teams after this week books. Very minimal. Most winless teams are a favorite or within reach of getting a win with the dual MNF games to go. There should be rare, very rare (0-3) teams this time tomorrow.
However, a few have already booked the (0-3) loss for the week. Statistically speaking, with as many teams as we track/as there are...there’s gonna be some outliers. And (0-3) is an outlier this season in our tracking of 2023. And everything you’re reading about me popping champagne...it stings, or it seems like a lie. Don’t panic. Don’t get negative thinking (as us FF owners are default-mode to do) and ruin your season that’s still very viable.
From what I see of scuffling FF teams right now – an (0-3) anomaly was either caused by Burrow’s calf, and/or a benched player could’ve won it if in the lineup, and/or an opponent along the way had some miracle performance from a player and you caught it at the wrong time (Week 2 losses to Daniel Jones just frost the hell out of me still).
I say all that because... (0-3) is ‘not over’, especially when I see the (0-3) team rosters and the owners are making a lot of proper moves but injury and some sit-start bad luck has nipped them once or twice. If an (0-3) team gets the win next week, then they are (1-3) with the playoff line in their league at (2-2) most likely...just one game out of the playoffs with 10+ games to go and we’re hitting our typically great bye week stretch. It’s far from over.
The (0-3) feeling sucks, but if you see your team as legit and getting guys back from injury or suspension the next week or two – you are not out of the race at all. Even a seemingly dead team is 1-2 waiver moves or trades away from a turnaround. Way too much time to go here to play angry.
My main message/thoughts on the closing of Week 3...
What can derail any team, from the (3-0) to (0-3) and everything in-between, is getting too caught up in ‘what just happened last week is the future forever thinking’.
There are so many contexts and circumstances causing last week’s things to happen...not every one of them needs your urgent intervention to ‘do something’. Everybody wanted to ‘do something/anything’ after Week 1...you want to fix everything all in one fell swoop, when the real answer was – don’t sweat it and take advantage of waivers early on.
I rarely hear anyone in FF declare that something is great, and everything is fine for the future/next week. Most of the Monday/week emails are complaining about ___ player letting them down and that they’ll never draft a player from that team again and they wanna make a trade to get ____ player that just went off last week.
You can’t trade for Raheem Mostert (example) this week, so why are you even thinking about it? I’ll bet if Tank Dell goes 3-30-0 Week 4, I’ll get some emails about how ‘well, Tank is done...my WRs are killing me.’
Most of my emails this season, so far, are kinda like this: Well, ___ player stinks and I’m lucky my opponent had a bad week...and I need to make trades for Tyreek Hill and Keenan Allen and Raheem Mostert because my WRs stink and my RBs are killing me. Then I ask: “How bad did you lose this week?” Response: Oh no...I won big...but this team looks shaky and I’m facing Mostert this week, so I’m gonna lose this upcoming week.
Why do FF owners live in such wallow?
The toughest opponent you will face in Fantasy 2023, just like all the other years – is you...your own mind...a general sense of ‘I’m doomed’ every time something breaks the wrong way – we’re all guilty of it. So, I harp and harp on these emotional things because it’s real and it stands in the way of getting to the FF-Promised land.
You can’t be too comfortable at (2-1) and (3-0) and your season’s not over if you lost Week 3 or are (1-2) or (0-3) after this week. The mission remains the same – address real issues, not make-believe ones...be the hunter not the hunted in deals – go attack the (0-3) team/s or two-game-losing streak weak-willed panickers. Don’t let yourself be the one getting attacked/chasing after any solution that is ‘anything and everything is better than what I got’ FF management.
Our job this week, every week, regardless of record – buy low, sell high, accumulate talent to have as power for the upcoming bye weeks and keep the continued learning of your roster/the players to have better sit-start understanding. We’re still in the early innings of this game...we’re not even done the 1st-quarter of the hypothetical football game we’re in with FF 2023.
Fantasy Football seasons are a battle of scouting + a battle of minds/wills. Keep your FF-head on straight right now. We’ve not even begun to fight. We’re in the appetizer phase of the FF meal right now.
I say all that (above) to prep for the shift in real FF things happening this week...
1: The free agent pool is drying up. Everybody has discovered the obvious after this week. We’ve been having our way Weeks 2-3 in waivers. Week 4 is a lower supply market with a high/vibrant demand. Not going to be easy to find the gems the way we have been, because less gems/the gems have been discovered...and we’re getting further back end of the waiver priorities.
We will find gems ahead, ones the mainstream are missing as the data/weeks of output piles in and hides many things in plain sight...but for right now, the low hanging fruit is about all gone.
2: I don’t see many great ‘buy lows’ this week that we have to go attack. It’s a weird week. Limited waiver excitement (most of us already pulled Tank Dell) and the ‘buy lows’ aren’t standing out strong to me just yet. Maybe as I process tape, they’ll hit me/be found...but right now I don’t see a lot of perfect storm situations just yet. They are probably hiding out there; I just need time/the week to find them.
We don’t have to fix our entire team by Wednesday midnight. It’s not even possible if we tried. Have patience this week, and really look hard at those (0-3) or two-game losing streak (1-2) rosters to see what you can steal in a deal, if there is anything to steal.
Mostly, we need to keep doing what we’ve been doing.
Congrats to those who humiliated opponents this week. We need take a second to enjoy it...but then back to work to devise a plan for Week 4, to humiliate the next opponent...or just quietly beat them.
In tribute to your Week 3 wins, some of them by astonishing points scored and margins...you listened to Captain America and did your job...and for those who have games riding on MNF tonight with Rachaad and Hurts, etc., then the same message/plan applies...and that is simply ‘Smash’: https://youtu.be/EcLfyxzV4lI?si=wjdspHxS_SprzqgH&t=36
--THREE PLAYERS--
TEN-CLE
-- I mentioned it last week, and it looks like we’re really another week closer...Ryan Tannehill (13-25 for 104 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) is close to getting ‘the hook’ by Mike Vrabel. And I still believe it will NOT be for Malik Willis, but I really think they want to go to Will Levis. If Levis is close to ready, I think the change could come if they lose to the Bengals next week. And it will happen like a lightning strike at some point this season. The Band-Aid will get ripped.
-- Part of the issue for the Titans offense here was the Browns-DST. It’s real...they have squashed the Bengals, Steelers, and now Titans to start the season. They get a sloppy Ravens offense Week 4.
-- Jerome Ford (10-18-1, 2033-1/3) did get shutdown by the tough Titans run defense...but he still got into spots to get two TDs. He is the legit lead RB with some pass game support from Kareem Hunt (5-13-0, 2-22-0/3). It’s gonna be RB1/2 projections from here for Ford. Kareem Hunt is just for relief/support/emergency.
ATL-DET
-- In a game that begged for that unique, radical passing game for Jahmyr Gibbs (17-80=0, 1-2-0/2), he had all of one catch on two targets. Three games in, and I’m not seeing the magic here.
-- Congrats to the Lions! The first defense this year to put some emphasis on stopping the Falcons run-heavy offense and making Desmond Ridder (21-38 for 201 yards, 0 TD/0 INT). Ridder of course could not take advantage and the Lions bottled up Bijan Robinson (10-33-0, 4-27-0/6) in a way I have feared for him this season. We’ll see if the other defensive coordinators decide to follow suit.
-- You wouldn’t know Amon-Ra St. Brown (9-102-0/12) was playing with a metal guard in his shoe. Looked totally normal.
Josh Reynolds (0-0-0/1) played like he was invisible. Goff barely looked at him. He may have been more hurt than let on and just being a decoy.
NO-GB
-- 2nd week in a row that the Saints-DST dominated their opponent for three quarters...and then went to sleep for the 4th-quarter and let their opponent back in the game with a chance to win...and GB did, inexplicably. No reason to bail on the Saints-DST or doubt them but do get mad at these defensive gems blown in the 4th-quarter. It’s painful to watch.
-- Rashid Shaheed (1-0-0, 0-0-0/2) had a great punt return TD...and no other yards on offense. The Saints aren’t committed to Shaheed as they should...that’s why it was OK to ditch him to get in on Dell-Tutu-Reynolds as many did last week. Shaheed still has value and upside, but he’s not a must-hold in a regular sized redraft league.
-- Another week, another A.J. Dillon (9-39-1) yawn. AJD is so OVER. DONE...as ‘a thing’. Aaron Jones could’ve played here but they decided to let him have extra time with a quick turn TNF Week 4 game coming up. A.J. Dillion is useless in general, but really toast when Jones is back.
DEN-MIA
-- One of the most embarrassing football events I’ve ever seen. Absolutely zero effort from Denver. Sean Payton really has this group turned around mentally! We might start to see some trades of Denver WRs in the next week or two. Jerry Jeudy more likely to go than Courtland Sutton (8-91-1/11), for contractual reasons, but both could go.
Denver will move to Marvin Mims (3-73-0/5) and Brandon Johnson (2-12-0/3) becoming full starters if/when one or both of Jeudy/Sutton are moved.
-- De’Von Achane (18-203-2, 4-30-2/4) had a day. I didn’t see anything special from him or Raheem Mostert (13-82-3, 7-60-1/7) but they were fine/normal/good...it’s just Denver wasn’t even playing in this game and Mostert-Achane just ripped off chunk plays left and right. Then Chris Brooks (9-66-0/0) came in and did the same late.
I’m more interested in who Denver’s run defense is facing next week than I’m enamored with Achane or Brooks from this game. It’s the Bears up next for the Denver run D...not sure which side is worse.
-- Javonte Williams (11-42-0, 2-23-0/3) was the plan to slow down the Miami offense, but the Dolphins took off from the jump and the run game started going out the window. Better matchup next week vs. Chicago.
LAC-MIN
-- I mean, I was chasing Keenan Allen (18-215-0/20) all offseason and in redrafts 2023, and we (as an FFM universe) were pretty successful landing him as a bargain – but I didn’t expect it to be this good. He’s likely to end Week 3 as the #1 WR in PPR/FF.
-- I guess that’s the end of the Joshua Kelley (11-12-0, 1-5-0/1) era.
After watching his last two games, if I were the Chargers GM, I’m embezzling funds and putting them in a bag and delivering them to Austin Ekeler to stay/be happy. I don’t know what the case is for Kelley going forward...he starts, he stinks...is his value as a ‘handcuff’? We just proved that he’s useless as a starter, apparently...so what are we holding onto here?
For that matter, check your depth chart...are you holding on to other garbage backup/handcuff RBs who wouldn’t matter even if they get more touches/became the starter? Are they clogging space and you’re passing up on WR and QB and TE tryouts? Did that Matt Breida hold really work out?
-- This may have been Alexander Mattison’s final week as the ‘starter’ for the Vikings. He was so bad here. He is SO bad. Cam Akers will likely take half this job this next week or the week after, then take the lead (in a split) soon after that. Not because Akers is anything special, but because Mattison is so awful.
NE-NYJ
-- With the rain issue here and the bad QBs, you knew this game would be a slog...and it was. Nothing we can really take away from this game result because the circumstances were so out of the ordinary. I barely watched this game live, so I need to watch the tape to see if there is anything to be gleaned.
-- Two weeks in a row with miserable run game results for the Jets. The Jets have a dead O-Line and there’s hope in sight. Breece Hall (12-18-0, 1-9-0/2) barely has a pulse and Dalvin Cook (8-18-0, 3-11-0/3) is about dead...likely to be traded away at the deadline if things keep swirling the drain.
-- You knew the Hunter Henry (2-17-0/5) pace couldn’t keep up (a TD in each of his games this year before this week). But you can blame the rain as much as anything. He’s as legit to be a back end TE1 as 20 other guys right now.
BUF-WSH
-- I thought I saw some issues with Sam Howell (19-29 for 170 yards, 0 TD/4 INTs, 1-18-0) on tape last week, and wrote about it – but I didn’t think this kinda collapse was coming/so imminent. A lot of the Howell issues I saw last week came to light here and then some. I was looking into FF-liking Howell early last week, but then getting cold feet after the tape late in the week...and now ‘I’m out’.
-- Dalton Kincaid (2-3-0/2)...another week with no sign of a connection with Allen. He looks great. There was some hope after Week 2 that something might be trying to click, but this was an all-Stefon Diggs (8-111-0/12) event, like usual, and crumbs for the others.
They won 37-3, coming off a Vegas blowout, so they will not feel the need to change what they’re doing. Kincaid is a hold and hope but you gotta have another TE to work while you wait. Kincaid can be a back end TE1 in 2023...like 20 other TEs roaming around that aren’t Kelce-Andrews.
-- Small positive at TE...our ‘outta nowhere’ TE this week, Cole Turner (4-35-0/7) led the team in targets. He looked good. But watching the tape of the Washington passing game this season, and this game live – I’m not into the Washington TEs too much.
HOU-JAX
-- The maturation, the comfort at which C.J. Stroud (20-30 for 280 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) is playing is shocking...but not totally unexpected and should only get better as he goes – and it looks like Houston is going with it, not trying to restrict it. His claim to be a QB1 as a rookie is rising.
-- I have more faith in Stroud to finish 2023 as a QB1 than I do Trevor Lawrence (27-40 for 279 yards, 1 TD/1 INT). Jacksonville and the Fresh Prince Trevor are VERY lucky they are not (0-3) right now. And the Trevor-to-Ridley combo has gone off the rails the last two weeks. Not sure what’s happening with them, but something is off the last two games.
-- Well, Tank Dell (5-145-1/7) is paying off! Do you believe he is Stroud’s main look now? One TD here...1-yard short of another on a great catch on a bomb between three defenders. Last week, he had one official TD and another wiped by a penalty. He’s been sniffing two TDs in a game for two weeks back-to-back.
Dell is the #1 WR for Houston. Most reading this got in on it, in redraft, just in time/a week or two ahead. That’s what we do! That’s why I gotta process this game tape – I can find ‘things’.
IND-BAL
-- I told you all along Zack Moss (30-122-0, 2-23-1/3) sucked as a prospect, but when I saw his 2023 ‘change’ we tried to get in on it as best we could last week...but on this I was late because I was a Moss-denier. That aside, he had his second game in-a-row with 100+ yards rushing. Who needs Jonathan Taylor?
We’ll see how it works when Anthony Richardson is fully back. Moss should hold up, as long as Taylor doesn’t return.
-- In a wet/rainy game, Zay Flowers (8-48-0/10) stood head and shoulders above all the other Ravens targets. That’s saying a lot...it’s a lot of respect for a rookie, but he deserves it. It’s not because OBJ was out...this has been happening since snap one of the season.
-- If Gus Edwards (11-51-0) misses Week 4 with a concussion, it will likely be a hot hand split between Melvin Gordon (10-32-0, 2-23-0/2) and Kenyan Drake (1-0-0, 2-31-0/3). Justice Hill likely won’t be back yet either.
I really don’t want to swim in this pool.
CAR-SEA
-- Andy Dalton (34-58 for 361 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs) looked better in this spot start, and put-up bigger numbers (yards) than Bryce Young probably ever will in a game in his career. It could be another big week for Dalton in Week 4, in a showdown of the winless v. MIN.
-- The Carolina WR projections for Week 4 will vary wildly based upon Dalton or Bryce starting. Adam Thielen (11-145-1/14) probably will have more catches and yards and TDs in (if) two starts with Dalton this year than his entire other 15 games with Bryce total in 2023.
-- Kenneth Walker (18-97-2, 3-59-0/3) had another 2-TD week here, back-to-back weeks. There’s no end in sight. I think Zach Charbonnet (9-46-0, 1-0-0/2) will be homing in on that soon, but no real sign of it here this week. Keep riding the Walker train.
CHI-KC
-- So, Isiah Pacheco (15-62-1, 2-16-0/3) goes from totally fine/healthy to start the week, to a hamstring twinge mid-week, to ‘questionable’, to ‘game-time decision’, to Sunday’s ‘he’s probably alright’ message...to best game of his 2023 season and still taking carries in the 2nd-half with his team up 34-0?
From here on in, if you’re not ‘questionable’ or ‘limited’ after your final practice of the week, I assume you are 1,000%. In a game where KC was destroying its opponent, it was a perfect time to take starters out, especially injured Pacheco – they instead gun it with the most touches Pacheco has had this season.
Patrick Mahomes had a sprained ankle at the half...and instead of sitting him to protect him, up 34-0...Andy Reid lets Mahomes talk him into going back out there. I’ll never understand the way NFL teams are run by head coaches.
-- Justin Fields (11-22 for 99 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 11-47-0) had another dagger plunged into his NFL career here. It was already ‘bad’ with the local media/fans prior, but it’s about to get worse...a lot worse. First to go will be Luke Getsy, either tomorrow or after a Week 4 flop. Next to go will be Matt Eberflus before season ends or right after the season ends – this situation is bad.
For FF, all you can do is hold Fields and see if it turns. It was amazing last season...because he ran. It’s the easiest thing to do going forward – just run him all the time. Who cares if he gets hurt? It probably is best if he does get hurt and gets gone.
DAL-ARI
-- I said there was something about this Arizona team from back in the summer through Weeks 1-2... But I never imagined they would lose Budda Baker and then go out and smoke the Dallas offense AND that they would barely have a worry with this vaunted Cowboys defense. The best team in the NFC East = The Cardinals...it’s true. They should be (3-0) right now.
I take back everything I said about the Cards FF-things not being able to work with this DAL-SF-CIN schedule Wks 3-4-5. I am stunned. Marquise Brown (5-61-1/7) is going through this schedule just fine.
-- Josh Dobbs (17-21 for 189 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 6-55-0) has rushed for 41 and 55 yards the past two weeks. He’s a semi-weapon runner. And now that they are legit...I bet Dobbs keeps running on purpose.
-- Michael Gallup (6-92-0/7) had the best game of any Dallas WR, but I’m not sure this is a new/re-breakout moment. Brandin Cooks (2-17-0/7) was a ghost in his return. Arizona just played excellent defense.
PIT-LV
-- That was the best Kenny Pickett (16-28 for 235 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 3-11-0) has ever looked on an NFL field...this is what I saw on the Week 1 tape hiding behind that disastrous Steelers offensive plan. We’re not in any redraft position to play on him in 2023, at this stage...but let a couple days go by in Dynasty...let the TNF game happen...let ‘them’ forget the decent SNF game, if you want to invest him long-term as a #3 QB in Dynasty. He is really quite talented, but we’re probably a year/another O-C away from this all changing...and then that’s an ‘IF’.
-- George Pickens (4-75-0/6) had a decent night but had the night that I feared...the non-explosive/exciting game, which brings his value down and you’re stuck with a WR2/3 you can’t hardly move for a WR1.5 or Pickens + ___ to get a WR1, like many did last week.
Pickens, like Pickett, is stuck in this offense and the upside is limited. Last week, we wanted to sell the sizzle of that Week 2 highlight for redraft especially just to get out from anything getting worse/staying the same and into something else that was really good but that had a better 2023 upside.
-- It’s the Davante Adams (13-172-2/20) in Las Vegas...another old, boring WR ‘rules’...the OEWRs rule. Those that followed that redraft mindset, those that didn’t fear 29-30+ year old WRs, didn’t ‘thirst’ non-stop for rookies and 2nd-year fairy tales to come true – you are starting to dominate in FF scoring in your league.
Maybe it wasn’t ‘Aaron Rodgers’, so much, all along? Perhaps, it was Davante all along...a la the Belichick/Brady debate of the past decade (that’s been put to rest)?
===== FIVE PLAYERS =====
*** FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO TRUST***
*Looking at players owned less than 50% on average in leagues across the whole FF-landscape. Your league, obviously, may be different/deeper.
**Adding a school grade to show my interest level (A-F)…and I don’t mean that a D-F grade is ‘bad’/just showing how pressing/important to me, your situation may differ due to injury, etc..
***IF FAAB% mentioned at any time below is based on a 16–20-man roster/12-team league. And it’s hard to predict the right bid % because every league, situation, lineup needs are so different. So, doing the best I can to ‘project’ (i.e. ‘guess’) what they will be based on early chatter.
*Again, note…not a grade on talent…just how important/urgent/great the waiver move is in context.
1) WR Tank Dell, HOU (Grade: A)
I have to note him here because he’s still universally owned less than 50%...quite a bit below 50%, actually. Whereas most of us reading this picked him up freely and easily the last two weeks AND not only were we 1-2 weeks ahead of the redraft crowd – we all actually started him this week and prospered.
It goes without saying, Dell is a pretty, pretty, pretty good pickup this week for those that didn’t or couldn’t quite make the roster move.
2) QB C.J. Stroud, HOU (Grade: B...B+/A if you’re QB desperate to support Burrow)
More impressive than Dell is what C.J. Stroud is doing. For a rookie QB to be this polished behind one of the worst O-Lines in the NFL...stunning. He’s got a shot to be a QB1 on volume this year.
IN the QB1 hunt group for 2023 = Stroud
Falling OUT of the QB1 hunt group for 2023 = Trevor Lawrence
Sometimes, I know what I’m doing in scouting. Also, better than Trevor – Kenny Pickett.
All of these QBs that I just mentioned are superior to Bryce Young.
3) RB De’Von Achane, MIA (Grade: C+)
I’m pretty sure Achane isn’t going to run for 200+ yards again in his career. He’s the Raheem Mostert backup and rotational RB with Salvon Ahmed...with Jeff Wilson is about to return. Nothing against Achane, but he’s in a rough situation for 2023 for FF.
BUT...you gotta pick him up if it’s the best waivers opportunity, in order to go trade it off this week.
4) WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Grade: C+)
As valuable as the news on Mike Williams’ injury severity is. He’s not great but he’s not bad and working with the great Justin Herbert is a good place to be ‘good/OK’.
*Williams feared to be out for the season, so this looks a bit better right now.
5) WR Quintin Johnston, LAC (Grade: C+)
I neither endorse nor dismiss him in the wake of the Big Mike injury. More snaps/targets coming for QJ, but he’s just not that good. However, if you get and then he scores a long TD this week (on your bench) – then you can trade him for the moon. With the Williams injury people sense QJ could take over and become a star. I’m willing to bet against it by selling high.
*LATE ADD* TE Luke Musgrave (Grade C+)
6 catches for 49 yards on 8 targets. Those two non-catch targets really were open and miss-thrown by Love, or it would've been an 8-80+ and 1/8 game. For all those still seeking TE goodness, Musgrave is a top talent, and his team actually plays him and targets him on purpose.
6) WR Adam Thielen, CAR (Grade: C)
Only pickup to flip this week if Bryce is returning.
For the mainstream, the equation is simple: Thielen’s big week + the great Bryce Young returning = MAGIC! They will pine for and make excuses for and daydream up scenarios for Bryce Young for the next 5+ years. So, Thielen will have some puffed projections with Bryce this week (or next)...I sell it.
7) TE Zach Ertz, ARI (Grade: C...if TE issues, Grade: D if you have a good #1 TE)
Got past the Dallas game, a low game as feared. Now, we’ll have the SF defense that squashes TEs...then things will open up. You got TE issues? Ertz should be part of your two TE rostering to find one legit TE. Get in early...this waiver week or next.
8) WR Marvin Mims, DEN (Grade: C/C-)
The future output leader of the Denver WR, perhaps in about 2-4 weeks...but has some usefulness now.
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***FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO DISTRUST***
1) QB Jameis Winston, NO
I can only imagine how excited the mainstream will be at the notion of Winston getting his 97th chance to finally be that great QB of destiny they all covet. There will be articles all week about how Winston is secretly better than Derek Carr. ESPN talk/yelling-like-idiots shows will extoll the virtues of poor Jameis who just needed a chance like this to be great.
Bull Shit. It always was BS...and it will always be. He may have some nice game tally somewhere along the way, but he’s not pending greatness...don’t listen to ‘them’.
2) RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC
I saw some waiver reports pushing that CEH is great pickup this week because he’s homing in on Pacheco’s job with his ‘great’ work/stat line in Week 3. How long do I have to keep fighting this fight? But just like they still love Winston and think the only reason THEY were wrong about him is he never got a real, good opportunity...they pine for CEH for reasons I cannot explain.
3) WR Calvin Austin, PIT
Long TD for a Steelers WR on a solo night TV game...sound familiar? I like Austin a lot, but now is not the time in regular redraft leagues/rosters. He had two catches on 6 targets in this game. The Steelers offense is still poorly planned with a bad O-Line...it just helped that the Raiders defense isn’t that great. Two more weeks until Diontae returns.
4) WR D.J. Chark, CAR
When Bryce is back, this goes bye-bye. Chark is the worst WR for Bryce’s inability to throw deep.
5) WR Michael Gallup, DAL
His nice Week 3 stat line is not a harbinger, I don’t believe. Just a random event. But because he is a Dallas Cowboy, one good game means more than if he did this on any other team.
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***FIVE BUY LOW PLAYERS***
*NOT ‘Buy at any price’…it’s Buy LOW. Try to find a deal. If none to be had, walk away. It’s also NOT…go immediately ask the owner ‘What do you want for ____’, don’t telegraph your desires.*
1) WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF
Week 1, and his 2 TDs was SO LONG AGO...getting forgotten with all the other games/outcomes pouring in since. But, Aiyuk had that great opening day as the #1 WR with his QB1 Brock Purdy...but Week 2, he hurt his shoulder on the first series and then played about half the game and wasn’t getting the ball for obvious reasons and had a weak result for a ‘full game’ played. Week 3, he was a TNF inactive.
People have two ‘bad’ memories in the way/in front of that Week 1. Current owners tend to remember ‘what just happened’ and what just happened with Aiyuk is no good/un-useful...AND Deebo Samuel arose on national internet television in Week 3 – so now Aiyuk is gonna be a 2nd fiddle from here!
Aiyuk is not a 2nd-fiddle, and Deebo’s big day came BECAUSE Aiyuk was out. One of the better ‘perfect storms’ of events/data for a ‘buy low’ is happening here. You can get him at a WR2 valuation. Pickens for Aiyuk – I’ll take Aiyuk...AS LONG AS the shoulder reports this week are fine/normal. The shoulder issue, in general, could drive his price closer to WR2/2.5 than a good, solid WR2. The cheaper the better...we’re buying low here, not buying at any price.
2) QB Anthony Richardson, IND
Out of sight, out of mind the past 1.5 games. Injured (for a moment) at the end of Week 1. Concussed early Week 2 (after he had rushed for two TDs). People don’t fully buy into rookie QBs (thus Stroud on many waiver lists still) as an axiom, but Richardson has been different all along. AR is going to be a 4pts pass TD QB1 this year...and if you have QB issues (Burrow issues), and you didn’t get in on Stafford-Purdy-Stroud last week...a Richardson trade is another possible solution to your woes.
The Burrow problem is a real problem you have to deal with last week/now. You don’t need 42 other handcuff RBs on your roster if you got Burrow issues...you need a settled, legit QB1 first.
Since people are so RB-focused in FF, and so QB de-emphasized, they will sell their #2 QB today (and that’s the only way to chase AR, is if he is a team’s clear #2 QB) for the promise of some random RB2 depth you have to help them with their Week 4 lineup.
I want him for a back end/fringe QB1/QB2 valuation...I’m not paying the rookie hype price. Stafford-Purdy-Stroud can get me through at a cheaper price, potentially. Hopefully, you already got 1-2 of them for free (redraft), but if not Richardson might be available from an (0-3)/(1-2) who has Richardson as their #2 QB.
3) WR Calvin Ridley, JAX
I’m half interested in this buy low...
I like it because...it’s all Trevor has eyes for.
I am suspect...because it’s not clicking two weeks in a row, Ridley starting to struggle with catches out of the blue...and now that JAX is losing games I wonder if Trevor may stop forcing everything to Ridley.
I think it can get back on track more than collapse...and if it gets back on track, it can be a WR1 situation on heavy targeting.
I’m only interested in stealing him as a WR2 valuation, I’m not seriously investing here.
4) WR Tyler Lockett, SEA
Always a good buy low anytime he has a quiet week, because people hate him for some reason...because he’s old or boring or whatever. He’s a legit WR1.5/2.0 that can be had for a WR2.5/3.0 price on down weeks.
If you’re holding Smith-Njigba, in redraft, and you are turning your nose up at Lockett – that’s a YOU problem.
5) WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA
Waddle hasn’t scored a TD in his past 5 games (incl. playoffs). He’s scored only 2 TDs in his last 11 games. He’s scored only 5 TDs in his past 18 games. He really hasn’t been that overly FF productive since Tyreek showed up.
I think Waddle can get on track as more attention is thrown at Tyreek, but also my primary desire for getting Waddle is – wherever I have Tyreek, I should try to get Waddle. Waddle is a WR2/3 with Tyreek...and a WR1 if Tyreek goes down. He is the Tyreek handcuff...the rare WR handcuff.
Waddle still has a ‘name’ worth more than his reality but a panicked (0-3) owner or (1-2) that just lost the last two, or any owner of anything in an RB panic – might be willing to talk a reasonable deal on the injured, 2023 disappointing Waddle.
6) TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF
I’m putting on here for DYNASTY only. The more Kincaid stays out of the spotlight, the more his rookie vibe decreases...the easier the acquisition cost. He’s an investment for the future with a shaky/unknown ‘now’.
I can only tell you...he’s got the potential to be the Travis Kelce of the future...the better Kelce.
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***FIVE SELL HIGH PLAYERS***
*NOT ‘Sell at any price’…it’s sell HIGH/sell good. Try to find someone in love with your player or seen as a neat value thrown into a multiplayer deal. If no one respects the player/buys right…then walk away.*
1) RB De’Von Achane, MIA
Achane is not a #1 RB in Miami. He’s just part of the rotation, and not close to being the lead. You have to sell this thing smoking hot this week or you’ll regret missing the window. Rookie RB hype + a 200+ yard rushing day = people will swoon for him. Sell him hot not dump for anything you can get.
2) TE Kyle Pitts, ATL
You got a halfway decent week out of Pitts, your first exit ramp of 2023. Pitts + ___ to get a real TE (non-Kelce)? Is there even a real TE outside of Kelce? You can’t get LaPorta most likely, rookie hype and all. Just noting – here’s an off-ramp if you took the Pitts bait this redraft season.
You don’t have to give Pitts away...just trying to squeeze anything we can, if there, out of his name appeal.
3) RB Alexander Mattison, MIN
We’re in the final days of Mattison as the full lead for the Vikings...and hasn’t it been grand? He’ll now battle Cam Akers in a showdown of weak, overrated RBs. Full Mattison was bad enough, but ‘splitting’ or ‘hot hand’ Mattison will be extra painful/useless. Sell it while you can. Sell high...or just sell. I suspect rare few of you even have this guy, but if you do...
4) WR George Pickens, PIT
I’m still interested in upgrading or parallel moving here...not dumping to dump. If you can use Pickens + ___ to get an upgrade of something, I’d do it...still. Pickens aura is like Pitts’ aura...legit greatness in BAD situations for their FF upside in 2023.
5) RB Zack Moss, IND
You don’t have to dump this, BUT if you grabbed Moss on a flier and now have this extra/great RB depth piece – you aren’t crazy to explore selling the depth piece to fill some other need. Back-to-back 100+ yard rushing games = gold to the FF zombies out there constantly roaming the earth for RB brains to feat on for the moment.
I sell as an RB1/1.5 or I don’t sell...and you don’t have to sell, but putting it out there to think about/test the market.
Jonathan Taylor could come back here because he has nowhere else to go and then your Moss stock valuation drops by 80% overnight.
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***FIVE DEEP SLEEPER WAIVER PICKUPS***
*Total flier/lowly owned or not-owned players
1) WR Rashee Rice, KC
I don’t see anyone else stepping up to be a #1 WR for Mahomes. Kadarius has moments, but he is either hurt the next week or he’s always limited to 15-20 snaps by Andy Reid. Skyy Moore is not that guy. Maybe Rice will become that guy and it means something...not elite WR1 or anything, just WR2/3 useful in the top offense? Rice had a TD with Mahomes this week, but it got reviewed back to ‘just short’ (for a CEH plunge after).
2) RB Roschon Johnson, CHI
The countdown to him being the lead back for Chicago has been on for three weeks. The problem is – if we’re all eventually right, what if this just sucks with him as a starter...like it has for Khalil Herbert? Their O-Line is in tatters...and their offense has replaced the Steelers as the worst-looking in the league.
Still, we’re all always hysterical to find the next RB that ‘starts’ for his team to solve the ‘my RB are killing me’ mindset that can never be wrenched from our souls...even though every week or two a fresh supply of options comes out of nowhere...especially as the season wears on and RBs start breaking down physically.
We can’t see the undefined future at RB, even though intellectually we know it’s that way/coming...we can only handle ‘the pain right now’. Roschon is an RB drug to help soothe your soul that he will save your entire RB room. Plus, he’s pretty good.
...but what good is it if an RB is talented but in a garbage situation?
3) WR Tyjae Spears, TEN
People are giving up on this, in redraft (and willing to sell in Dynasty...now that the bloom is off the rose). You need/want this if you own (struggling) Derrick Henry. This is a handcuff to hold – the talent + can be an RB1 threat if Henry goes down. Dynasty owners of Henry, you gotta get into this while the price is down/before he does anything to change the landscape.
4) WR Robert Woods, HOU
If the Texans passing game is an upside, then Woods is arguably the 2nd-best WR to own from it...over Nico Collins. Woods is steady PPR hope for the bye weeks upcoming...and somewhat protects/cuff Tank Dell.
5) RB Kendre Miller, NO
Just the obvious handcuff for Alvin Kamara, for those who invested in AK and are about to get him back.
6) QB Will Levis, TEN
I think, small bet, that Levis will be the Tannehill replacement in season...just a pure hunch/suspicion. And Levis is talented.
7) WR Tyler Scott, CHI
If the Bears start selling off things, including WRs – it will be Scott elevating up with ‘who knows’ what at QB. Scott is in that ‘poor man’s’ Marvin Mims, Josh Downs, Tre Tucker type hope WR.
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-- FIVE…IT’S OK TO QUIT THEM PLAYERS (for REDRAFT) --
1) WR Darnell Mooney, CHI
I love the guy, but that Week 1 TD was the chance to sell him for anything you could find. Mooney’s only FF-hope is – he gets traded at the deadline.
2) TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN
This passing game is miserable, and Okonkwo seems totally dead in it. Plus, it looks like Chig bulked up for 2023 and has slowed down/become plodding as a result.
3) WR Isaiah Hodgins, NYG
About every NYG WR can go on this list with the fleeting hope that NYG abandons their CC_KCO and goes more traditional with Wan’Dale Robinson as a gadget/easy toss for Dan Jones and Jalin Hyatt as the gamechanger (without a gamechanger QB throwing it).
4) Parris Campbell, NYG
*see above
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***STREAMING DSTs OFF WAIVER(?) OPTIONS***--
1) Lions-DST
I’m not afraid of the Packers offense, so Detroit looks good Week 4 and then great Week 5 v. Bryce Young...then TB Week 6 works too. Week 7 at BAL can be OK. Week 8 v. LV is hopeful.
Note: The Detroit-DST has Chicago Week 11 and 14 with Denver Week 15.
2) Browns-DST
They’ve been great every week...it’s time to believe, for those who didn’t (like me).
The problem is...a weak Week 4/BAL, Week 5/BYE, and Week 6/SF – not a good stretch ahead. The schedule is more promising from Week 7-8 on.
3) Vikings-DST
Might not be the worst DST ever, but if they get Bryce Young back Week 4...then this can work.
4) Bucs-DST
Not my favorite DST, but at NO/Jameis Week 4 is something.
5) Commanders-DST
It’s cool that Washington brings a lot of pressure, etc., but they’ve given up 30+ points to opponents their last two games. At Philly Week 4...not good. But Week 5 v. CHI, Week 6 at ATL, and Week 7 at NYG is the stretch of hope.
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-- Sleeper/lesser-name IDPs whose box scores or live watch caught my attention --
1) LB Micah McFadden, NYG
10 tackles and 4 TFLs in Week 3...second 10+ tackle game of the season. 8.7 tackles, 1.7 TFLs per game in 2023. A true middle LB playing with a ton of energy right now.
2) LB Cody Barton, WSH
9.3 tackles per game so far this year, and 12.0 tackles per game the past two games.
3) CB Roger McCreary, TEN
No tackles Week 1 (88% of snaps played), but in the last two games he’s averaging: 8.0 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 1.0 TFLs. He was a tackle monster last year as well, for a CB/DB.
4) LB Rashan Gary, GB
Coming off a last 2022 to injury, his first 2 games this season he had no sacks...but he hit 3.0 sacks in Week 3 v. NO. He’s getting back up to form.
5) DB Kyle Hamilton, BAL
9 tackles, 3.0 sacks, 2.0 TFLs in Week 3...a shock performance after averaging 3.5 tackles per game Weeks 1-2.
6) DB Terell Smith, CHI
The rookie got his first real work of 2023, filling in for an injured starter. Smith was one of the talks of camp this year for the Bears and in his first real action here – 10 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 PD.
Two other quick notes for the week:
1: On the FFM App, until we fix/make it more logical...you can see all the notifications we ever send by going to the three bar options (upper left) and selecting profile and then touching the ‘push notifications’.
You can get all notifications in real-time if you go to your settings, go to notifications, and enable the FFM App to send you notifications. Sometimes we have critical news a minute or five ahead of a national announcement and you can take FF advantage of it. Always good to have the notifications enabled for real-time alerts to your smart phone.
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2: The video reports/game analysis will continue, especially in the non-bye weeks where I got 16 games to work on before the next slate of games goes off.
I tried out different video-to-text applications to try to have a transcript of the videos, but the outputs are a streaming mess of words without proper punctuations and sometimes misheard/misinterpreted words and sentences, so it was taking me longer to figure out/clean up a transcript than it was to just write the full report.
I try to choose the games in the week that seem like they will have lighter notes to video report on, but I never know what gem or crisis will be uncovered in any game study. So, you do want to listen when you can.
For those who don’t like the video reports, I feel you...I wish I could write them all, but I can’t. I track my time of work each week for improved efficiency and look to improve efficiency, so I don’t work 80-100+ hours a week every week and totally destroy my body and mind. Doing a few video reports each week saves me time and toll each week. And I enjoy the communication on that medium as well, so you can really feel the inflection or tone in my voice on various things.
I listen to videos all day long (mostly off YouTube)...coach’s press conferences, injury reports, practice reports, player pressers. I listen to things making my morning coffee, or driving to the store, or while I’m doing data input, or when I take a shower, or when I walk the dog. You can listen to the FFM videos like music or a podcast or you can watch the videos on a smart TV on the Twitch App/channel. I’m never not listening to something when I have a quiet period or task/chore I’m doing. It’s a part of my effort to be efficient...even a bathroom break is me with my phone in one hand, and...
And if you think I can’t possibly work 80-100 hours a week, you’re wrong. I wish you were right, and I was wrong, but I track it. I’m into efficiency stuff.
16 game studies in a week and the subsequent written reports and publishing takes 3 hours per game on average.
48 hours a week = to watch every game back and report, when there are 16 games
11 hours a Sunday = watching the Sunday games live
7 hours a week = live watch TNF and MNF
3 hours a week = of Q&A video shows TUE night, SUN morning
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69 hours a week = Just in the 4 critical tasks above.
+15 hours a week = researching/working on and publishing player projections, researching injury reports, talking/texting to sources.
+3 hours in handicapping studies per week = going through lines, picks, props, and discussing with others
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87 hours a week = in those 6 areas above
87 hours of straight work, no filler, before I get to your emails, any customer service questions, technology items/battles (if any), any special events/reports.
This weekly Executive Report you just read is a 6-7-8 hour process from the wee hours of Sunday/Monday into all day Monday.
It’s normally 90+ hours a week of work to be the best at this...to try to be the Tom Brady of this. But I’m human…I also have to eat and sleep and shower and cook and mow my lawn, etc., as well. When you add that in, there’s not a lot of time left for exercise or any kind or interpersonal interaction with my spouse or watching TV, etc.
So, if I can save 2-4 hours a week in an area like video reports in place of some typed reports – I’ll take it.
When a bye week hits and it’s two games less than normal (example)...it’s 6 hours saved! I feel like I hit the lottery with 6 extra hours given in a week.
I’m doing the best I can to efficiently communicate everything I’m seeing, so that it is actionable and profitable! Written reports are preferred, but there will have to be some video reporting to help aid my cause each week.
If you would do me a favor and tell all your FF leaguemates how much you enjoy this FFM site…then we should boost subscriptions to where I can afford to hire someone to help :) Thanks!
Outro for Week 3:
My message to those of you with big win after your Week 3 victories: https://youtu.be/tZLpb6Z0Dm0?si=1B32ycfVUoU9OUni
