Game overview:
The Bears and Bills threw their 1st-teams at each other for a little bit here, and that allowed us to get some/cement ideas on how these offenses are going to flow. These two teams have played their starters a bunch (relatively speaking) in the preseason, so I THINK that I KNOW what their plans are to start the season...and we’ll discuss those items/players in the next section.
As far as the game itself...it was a bit of a defensive struggle, of sorts, Buffalo just not totally in sync still...but getting closer. The Bears...boy, that offense...we’ll get into it. Bills won the 1st-team battle 7-0 and then the Bears won the backups battle from there...but Buffalo got the overall scoreboard win.
Scouting Notes from the game:
-- Scouting the starting QBs in this game...because we got another dose of their play here:
Josh Allen (5-7 for 49 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) looks fine. No issues...other than -- this offense/passing game does not look as crisp as it did a few years ago. The tail-off began when Brian Daboll left...and Ken Dorsey arrived. Allen keeps a very loose hold on being named in my ‘Big 3’ (at QB)...I am so wanting to put Burrow in and Allen out -- but Allen is such an FF talent AND he produces consistently for three straight years.
There were some offensive issues last year with the O-C Dorsey era, but through Week 16 in 2022 season -- Allen was 1.1 total FF points and 0.1 PPG behind Patrick Mahomes in FF scoring (4pts per pass TD). Allen 3rd, Mahomes 2nd...Hurts #1.
Allen is fine. Could be better, but he has a high floor...he’s ‘too big (3) to (FF)fail’.
Justin Fields (2-6 for 51 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs, 3-18-0) still looks like one of the worst 2-3-4-5 passers, among the starting QBs in the NFL. He throws passes without reading the defense -- he knows where he is throwing before the ball is snapped. He threw some of the worst concept passes I’ve seen this preseason in this game.
BUT...Fields is majestic running the ball, and when he scrambles or rolls out -- he’s a much more efficient/successful passer. If defenses can keep him in the pocket, they’ll kill him...but you can only hold coverage so long and he still can run circles around defenses with his feet, whether they are spying him or whatever. He’s built for Fantasy...shaky for the NFL.
-- The Bills RB situation...
James Cook (5-23-0, 2-14-0/2) is CLEARLY the Bills lead/three-down RB. Every preseason game, with the 1st-team...it’s all Cook. Not Cook-Murray, not Cook-Harris, not Cook-Murray-Harris.
Damien Harris (7-25-1) came in for a goal line carry and punched it in, and that’s a good role for him but otherwise this is gonna be Cook’s show...and he looks really good. He looks a little like his brother back in his brother’s prime, but faster.
Jacksonville shows split signals with Etienne and Bigsby.
Pittsburgh shows clear split signals with Najee-Warren.
Seattle has an obvious Walker-Charbonnet set up.
Etienne-Najee-Walker all trade (ADP wise) well ahead of the sudden bargain Cook. Man, are there great RB values in rounds 3-4-5-6-7.
-- The Bills WR group...
The starters were Diggs-Davis...and Deonte Harty (4-23-0/6), and Harty got a lot of work in the slot. What happened to Khalil Shakir? He hurt his ribs in practice during the week and unknown how serious it is.
Harty looked really good in the role he was meant to play...starting slot for a good offense. If Shakir is announced to be missing the start of the season -- Harty becomes a legit WR2/3 here...especially opening night/Week 1 vs. the Jets where they have such great outside corners, and Buffalo can expose them in the slot potentially.
-- Dalton Kincaid (0-0-0/0) got treated, somewhat, as I fear he will be early in the season...forgotten/underutilized weapon. Kincaid started in a two TE set with Dawson Knox, but then it became 1st and 2nd-down = Knox. 3rd-down = Kincaid...and red zone = mostly Kincaid. I can FF-live with that for now, but I can’t live with no targets within that.
Kincaid might have had a TD here, but as he was about to make his move on a scripted end zone play (it looked like) for him, his defender panicked and dragged him down in-route, so he didn’t get burned.
Still touch-and-go here for the talented Kincaid.
-- The Bears RB group...
Khalil Herbert (2-0-0, 1-3-0/2) started both 1st-team series. He’s going to be listed as the #1 RB for Week 1...and I’d sell that so fast it would make one’s head spin. First off, he stinks...second off, there’s too many mouths to feed here for any RB to work well for FF...third off, I don’t think he’ll be the lead for long or lead the RBs in touches within 2-3 weeks into the season.
Roschon Johnson (9-22-0, 1-11-0/1) was working 3rd-down exclusively here...a ‘tell’ on how they think Week 1 is going to go/flow.
D’Onta Foreman (2-11-0, 1-11-0/1) looked better than all of them here but worked 2nd-team only...and then got hit hard in the side and left the game and went back to the locker room for further evaluation.
I don’t want any of these guys to start FF Week 1, but Roschon is the one I’d pick if I had to have one.
-- The only WR that matters on the Bears...
It’s definitely a fact...D.J. Moore (1-40-0/2) is the Bears #1 WR. Everyone else has faded off. Fields is forcing it to Moore, and that was on full display here. The problem is...Fields stinks as a passer as defenses know he’s going to Moore primarily, and it’s not open as much and Fields has a hard time finding it in a pitch-and-catch sense.
I KNOW Moore is going to be the Bears top target, but I THINK it’s not gonna be that good for FF...like usual for Moore. The guy has bad luck with QB situations.
