Game overview:
The Packers ran most of their 1st-team for a while Seattle played mostly 2nd/3rd-team players...it was a mismatch on paper, and Green Bay did take a 9-0 lead early...but it wasn’t super-smooth/efficient, per se...not how you would think a 1st-team offense should get over on a 2nd/3rd-team defense.
They gotta be worried in Green Bay...
Week 1 GB at CHI (-1.5)...that’s looking more like the Bears really do deserve to be the favorite and are likely to finish the season above the Pack, as we transition into a time where the Bears are going to start to rise in the NFC North...and the Packers start to sink for at least a few years.
Scouting Notes from the game:
-- One last look at Jordan Love (9-15 for 63 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 3-21-0) here before the regular season starts. I’m not sure any Week 1 starting QB has had so much playing time with the 1st-team in the preseason than Love...and that’s probably a bad sign. If the Packers were well-pleased with Love, if everything looked tight -- he likely would have sat this game or played one series and gone.
It’s funny with Love, he can look so good one play...but then throw inexplicable passes the next. It’s like the QB he faced here -- Drew Lock...and they will both probably meet the same fate in their NFL careers. Moments of hope...looks good in non-contact practice...has tools...just can’t put ‘it’ all together in a real game consistently.
I can’t trust Green Bay this year, as a bettor or for FF passing-game related because Love is going to flop...in my opinion.
I still maintain that rookie Sean Clifford (8-12 for 46 yards, 0 TD/0 INT), who is another day three drafted rookie QB better than Bryce Young, will be the starter at some point in 2023. There will be a ton of ‘he’s their Brock Purdy’ talk coming soon...
I would say USFL MVP, former Seattle draft pick, Alex McGough (4-5 for 69 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) should be the Packers replacement for the upcoming Love flop, but Matt LaFluer has done absolutely nothing with/for McGough this preseason. Barely plays him in the games. Love plays about a quarter then Clifford runs 2+ quarter, and McGough gets in for a moment at the end, maybe...if he’s lucky.
McGough showed his arm ability here, and his good feet...but he’s likely to let go versus make the 53-man roster -- McGough is better than a handful+ of existing #2 QBs in the league. We’ll see if any teams were paying attention in the preseason if/when McGough is released.
-- Packers RB review...
A.J. Dillon is having to play in these preseason games...Aaron Jones isn’t...thus is the Packers hierarchy at RB year-after-year. Dillon is always in a junior role to Aaron Jones. Dillon should be acting like Jonathan Taylor or J.K. Dobbins right now -- his earning power has been screwed over by how GB has treated him as a lesser back for years.
The 2nd RB in this game, to begin the 2nd-series was Patrick Taylor, for some reason...the guy has been with Green Bay, cut and re-picked up, about a hundred times in the past 100 years. After Taylor had a few snaps with the 1st-team...then UDFA rookie Emanuel Wilson (17-49-0, 2-9-0/2) got to work with the 1st-team. Wow, what a journey this preseason for Wilson.
I now wait to see how stupid the Packers can be -- whether they keep Taylor or do the right thing and keep Wilson, and not cut Wilson and try to sneak him onto the practice squad. It’s 50/50 on what they’re going to do, in my opinion. We await the next chapter of this story to react to. See the draft guide, the DRD rankings, and previous Packers preseason reports to understand what is happening in Green Bay at running back. The mainstream has no idea...I’m not sure if the Packers do either.
-- Packers WR notes...
The Love-to-Christian Watson (1-6-1/3) connection looked so pathetic here...it just jades me on messing with Watson for FF 2023. I still believe he has star potential for FF (he’s built for FF), but I don’t know when we’ll see it -- maybe when/if the QB change in-season 2023 occurs.
UDFA rookie WR Malik Heath (4-35-0/7) continues to be a standout for the Packers this summer. He’s definitely making the team...and I think he’s a direct threat to Romeo Doubs at some point this season.
-- Zach Charbonnet (3-1-0, 1-6-0/1) played a few snaps here...he looks good. He is going to be in some kind of 50-50 type split with Kenneth Walker. Charbonnet is too talented to sit.
...and don’t think Pete Carroll doesn’t want this offense to be a heavy run game and defense. 2022 Geno Smith may have been a slight aberration for output. Minus Dave Canales (now O-C TB), we might be surprised by what this Seattle offense looks like in 2023.
So, before you get too crazy on DKM or JSN, or Geno...you only THINK you know how their offensive flow will be. All the 2022 metrics about Metcalf’s TD opps and other various statistical philosophies that are translated/interpreted into a big 2023 projection for DKM in various places...there’s potentially a big changing variable on 2023 offense that renders 2022 data meaningless for 2023 DKM projections.
Charbonnet is Carroll’s new Marshawn Lynch attempt...he will not-not play Charbonnet in that role right away in some form.
-- I don’t know how Seattle UDFA rookie Jake Bobo (2-27-1/3) does it, but he keeps getting open and making plays, despite his 4.99 40-time at his Pro Day. Bobo is defying all analytics-based scouting. He’s been way more impressive than Jaxon Smith-Njigba...but there’s no way Seattle pushes Bobo or throttles JSN, that would be too embarrassing. I’m not saying Bobo should get a push or that he will be a star or anything -- just if hard work and better play in practices mattered, there would be way more Bobo talk and much more scrutiny of JSN’s camp.
‘The best man wins the job’ is a con NFL coaches say to the media/fans who lap it up.
-- If there was justice in the NFL world, and ‘best man wins the job’, Seattle would treat Drew Lock like Old Yeller and just push UDFA rookie Holton Ahlers (5-10 for 55 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, 7-8-0). I know Ahlers would flop some as a rookie if thrown in right away, but Drew Lock flops as a veteran, all the time. Lock was scuffling all game here with the Packers JV squad. Lock is pathetic...and the fact Pete Carroll wanted to start him over Geno to begin training camp last year goes to show that these coaches have their elbow on the pulse of football talent too much of the time.
-- Two IDP notes...
Seattle rookie DB Jerrick Reed (6 tackles, 2 TFLs) has definitely secured a 53-man roster spot and is the future free safety for this team.
Packers 2nd-year DB-turned-LB Tariq Carpenter (4 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 PD) looked good at linebacker here. Still needs more development time but could be something down the road.
Packers UDFA rookie CB Carrington Valentine (3 tackles, 1 TFLs) should’ve been a top 100 pick, based on talent, how he wasn’t a solid draft pick...I do not know. But I do know he’s been one of the best UDFA rookies all summer and is definitely making the 53-man and will be the next-man-up if a starter gets hurt this season.
-- Packers rookie PK Anders Carlson (2/2 FG with a 57-yarder) has been really impressive this preseason. He’s showing to be the best of the rookie kickers so far. He looks just like his brother Daniel in appearance and kicking style.
