Game overview:
Tampa Bay ran their 1st-team offense and defense against Baltimore’s B-team and given that context...it’s still a decent/promising sign that the Bucs handled their business on offense against them. On defense...not so much. But the offense was efficient/crisp.
These are two of the most mystifying teams in the NFL, to me, right now. I literally have no idea what to expect from them in 2023. Even if delusional, I think I have a handle on most NFL teams after the preseason and especially during the season. When I spend all the tape time and research and data analysis time...I can have a somewhat out-of-body experience where I can just ‘feel’ the rising or falling of teams in progress. It’s not a foolproof ‘feel’ for sure, I can get head faked by an outlier event...but I didn’t get that handicapping ATS win percentage in 2022 by sheer luck last year...and it wasn’t all data analysis, per se. A lot of it is -- observation mixed with a long record of experience. They say it takes 10,000 hours to be a master at something -- I clock that about every three+ years on football analysis.
I just ‘know it when I see/sense it’ often. And ‘it’ is ever changing with injuries, etc.)...so, I have to also sense when it’s changing course or halting.
And then there’s the teams that I observe and observe and study and theorize...and I cannot get a ‘feel’ for them. That’s where the Bucs and Ravens fall.
For Baltimore: I’ve not seen ‘the Todd Monken offense’ with Lamar yet, but I already hate it. Why? Because literally NO ONE in football spoke the words ‘The Todd Monken offense’ ever...until 2023, where now everyone in the football analysis world is talking about the vaunted ‘Todd Monken offense’ like a bunch of parrots. It reminds me of that time football people tried to push the genius of the Dirk Koetter offense. Remember him? Exactly.
I’ve not seen the mystical Todd Monken offense, but I know I don’t love Lamar Jackson at QB and I’m not in awe of an OBJ-led WR group. I’m also skeptical of Lamar having to think/play mental chess on play calling/reading the pass coverages at a high level. I also look at the current Ravens secondary collapse (Humphrey going to be out a while) and this whole team looks OK-ish but also the worst in the division BY FAR. Who knows...maybe the Monken Mania will run wild.
The Bucs are of a bit different confusion: I can’t get a feel for them because they are Jekyll and Hyde from play-to-play. Baker looks ‘done’...no, wait, Baker is a maturing, efficient leader. The O-Line stinks...no, wait...it didn’t look too bad here with the 1st-team offense installed. This defense has talent...no, wait Devin White is out of position on another play, and the DBs look so athletic...no, wait they are out of position and gave up a huge play... the defense holds a team to single digits one week and then gives up 30+ the next (just made-up examples of my thoughts).
The Bucs could win the NFC South...or finish last and have the #1 pick in the 2024 Draft...I wouldn’t be shocked with either outcome.
I do know this -- what I see in Tampa’s new O-C Dave Canales...that’s something people might be talking about...’The Dave Canales offense’. And they’ll be speaking about him as a head coach in about six months too, I have a feeling -- either in demand in the marketplace off a successful 2023, or replacing a failed Bowles/Arians regime in 2024 in Tampa.
Todd Monken...he was let go as Bucs O-C after the 2018 season, then let go as Browns O-C after one year, the very next season (2019). You’ve gotta be kidding me with this ‘Todd Monken offense’ crap.
Watch the Ravens go 17-0 and set offensive records and win the Super Bowl now. I just don’t know, nor does anyone, where this Ravens team is headed...but what I see, I don’t like yet. Something smells off here.
Scouting Notes from the game:
-- You know the first thing we need to talk about is the Rachaad White’s (7-39-0, 1-2-0/1) 2023 debut...or should I start with Sports Illustrated’s (and thus every other FF site’s ‘blurb’ yesterday) new #1 back for Tampa for Week 1 this season, Sean Tucker (10-34-0).
The Bucs were very coy to hide Sean Tucker as the 4th RB in the game, not inserting him until the 2nd-half and working with the 3rd/4th-teamers...they are fooling everyone! Wait until they unleash Tucker Week 1...the imminent threat to Rachaad!!
Umm...no.
Rachaad took every 1st-team snap at RB here...touched the ball a bunch to get ready for the season and looked as good as always. He had a spin move run towards the end of his brief time here that was beautiful, and video of it is nowhere to be found on the internet at my quick check -- but did you see that one Bijan Robinson run a couple weeks ago in a preseason game highlight ten thousand times? Yes. Yes, we all did.
We’ve made it to the Promised land with Rachaad. All the mainstream analysts calling for TB to sign every RB free agent...then they pleaded for them to draft Bijan or anyone they could at RB to spare themselves from Rachaad...and now they’re begging TB to make a trade for Jacobs or Taylor...or start Sean Tucker...but here we are, just as a said all along -- Rachaad White, the clear #1 RB for Tampa...ready for action.
We’re all clear...we’re all good. No injuries...no depth chart pressure. Yes, I wish Ryan Jensen was healthy and at center, but the Rachaad thing isn’t about the O-Line...like it is for a lot of other RBs. You’ll see. I’ve said enough already about it this year.
The real #2 RB, in a minor role, is Chase Edmonds (DNP). It’s not even debatable. You want Rachaad’s ‘cuff...it’s Chase. Far less exciting than Rachaad.
Who is the #3 RB? I’m not sure. Ke’Shawn Vaughn (6-26-0, 0-0-0/1) keeps getting pushed to have the chance, but he stinks. Sean Tucker (10-34-0) ran as a distant 4th RB here, but I would assume they’d keep Tucker over Vaughn in the end...but they could try to put Tucker on the practice squad.
...a far cry from S.I.’s ‘vision’ of Tucker taking over for Rachaad sometime this season.
I need to send that guy from S.I. an edible arrangement or something...for changing the market -- maybe he is a big Dynasty/FF player and manipulated the market for himself? A few of you who couldn’t get Rachaad reasonably all year, in Dynasty, got him yesterday off that ridiculous news. Congrats! Once again, you’re welcome. You want me on this wall...you need me on this wall.
-- The starting Bucs WR trio for this game:
Godwin
D. Moore (in Evans’ spot)
Deven Thompkins (0-0-0/1)...the starting slot, like I said when Russell Gage news hit a few weeks ago...it is not Trey Palmer.
The #4 WR seems to be David Moore (3-39-0/4)...a blast from the past who has kicked around the league the past few years. He looks solid.
The #5 WR seems to be Rakim Jarrett (4-48-0/5), who I think is the best of the young bunch in Tampa...a pro’s pro WR.
The #6 WR seems to be Trey Palmer (3-25-0/3), but I don’t think he’ll stay at #6 for long. Watching Palmer this preseason, and it really jumped out this game, the guy just has as ‘it’ factor...to be a deep ball menace. Not a superstar...but a menace, and good for like Best Ball with his big play ability...eventually he will be ‘good’/dangerous, hopefully. He just has a swagger on the field...and speed...and desire.
Tampa really has something for depth and a future with Thompkins-Jarrett-Palmer., especially Jarrett and Palmer...they need a better QB and O-Line to make it hum in the future.
-- Speaking of the TB QBs...
Baker Mayfield (6-6 for 43 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) looked like a guy that could take a wobbly/inconsistent team and lead it by ‘will’ to a fringe playoff run and possible division win...in a weak division. The Baker upside was on display here -- he played a tight/smart game...albeit against the Baltimore ‘B’ defense.
Kyle Trask (19-31 for 192 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) continues to look competent. Not a star...but not a disaster. He has grown so much in a year. I blame the new O-C Dave Canales. You know who Canales had a direct hand in coaching the past few years?
2018-2019 QB coach for Russell Wilson, then he was the passing game coordinator for Russ 2020-2021. In 2020, Russ had a career high 40 TD passes. From 2018-2021, with Canales involved, Russ threw for 131 TDs and 31 INTs over four seasons. Away from Canales in 2022...Russ was a disaster. You know who Denver should’ve hired as their new HC in 2023? Ehh, Denver knows what they’re doing hiring coaches...2022 was proof positive...
In 2022, Canales coached Geno Smith to 30 TDs/11 INTs out of nowhere. I think the guy might be pretty good at his job. But...THE TODD MONKEN OFFENSE!!!!
Maybe Baker is about to have a career year? If he does, Canales should be the highest paid coach in the NFL in 2024...whatever title he has with it, doesn’t matter. If you can fix/improve QBs of all kinds...you need to be paid the most money.
-- I assume Josh Johnson (6-9 for 95 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) is the #2 QB? He was nice here...drove right down the field on the first series and scored a TD against the TB (mostly) #1 defense. Johnson is a solid veteran. But they’ll probably name Tyler Huntley #2, because they got money into him.
If the Ravens try to cut Anthony Brown (12-21 for 171 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 6-41-0)...some team should pick him up to develop him more, like Tampa Bay...but likely the NFL will whistle right past him. He’s beefed his body up and he was always a decent talent with good feet. There’s something here, but I don’t think anyone sees it in the NFL.
-- UDFA rookie RB Owen Wright (12-89-1, 2-11-0/5) looks like he could be a possible fringe NFL RB. Showed some solid/hopeful tape here. Not going to make the team but will make the practice squad.
Who knows...they may need him on the main roster. I don’t know what is going on with J.K. Dobbins, but it’s not good/smart and this one could end ugly because JKD is NOT Jacobs or Saquon or Taylor.
-- Ravens receiver notes...
Ravens 2nd-year TE Charlie Kolar (4-45-0/5) has grown by leaps and bounds since last year. He was the top target/best worked receiver among the Ravens receivers this game. Kolar will make the roster.
UDFA WR Dontay Demus (2-86-0/3) also had a couple nice moments here as well. I doubt Demus makes the roster...probably goes easily to the practice squad.
-- Final notes are with the TB IDPs...
UDFA rookie DB Christian Izien (2 tackles) has won the nickel CB role. Congrats to him...he deserved it. Smart job by TB. The Bucs really did a nice job with later round picks/UDFA grabs this year.
Joe Tryon (3 tackles, 1 TFL) stood out among the Bucs 1st-team defenders. He looks like he could take a step up from his solid rookie 2022.
