Game overview:
We got a more/better look at Anthony Richardson, and most of the 1st-team offense for the Colts, for a full half of play here…but it was against the Eagles 2nd/3rd teams.
This game, unlike PIT-ATL, went as expected and I won my bet on Indy…to help offset some of the loss sustained chasing ATL in the earlier game.
The Colts won, but considering it was a bit of a slog for the Colts playing more starters than the Eagles…it was a worrisome event. The Eagles regular/starting unit, in a regular game, if they were playing Week 1, would destroy the Colts…the Colts team that could barely leverage their 1st team playing a bunch here.
2023 season is going to be ‘growing pains’ with big ups and downs for Indy. The Eagles are set to make a serious run to get back to the Super Bowl. These two teams are in two different places right now.
Scouting Notes from the game:
-- Let’s begin with the main attraction here…a longer look at Anthony Richardson (6-17 for 78 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 5-38-0).
Overall, I was pleased with what I saw here. Kinda surprising that he was just 6-of-17 passing in the game, he ‘felt’ a little better than that watching it live…but looking back at the tape, it was earned. He had some smart throwaways, some on-target small window deep balls that didn’t connect but were nice throws, and 1-2 near-pick passes trying to fit something in where he shouldn’t.
The accuracy would seem like an issue, but this is what we’ve seen from Richardson so far from college to the pros -- he isn’t checking down constantly, he is aggressive, and he throws medium and deep very accurately…but sometimes the coverage is good or the WR cannot come down with a pass…or he throws it offline.
We’re so used to a QB doing a three step drop and throwing preplanned quick throws for 2-5 yards we get nervous and frustrated with someone getting more aggressive and striking out too much…and if you think it’s nerve-wracking to watch...just know NFL coaches absolutely HATE IT. But new H-C Shane Steichen was a part of the Jalen Hurts transition to stardom -- so, he’s smartly following the same approach. There’s hope here that Arich got the right coach for himself.
What does it matter if your QB throws two complete passes on two attempts, for 3 and 4 yards…if Richardson then throws two passes as well, but one goes awry…and the other goes for 12 yards on a frozen rope? But we hate 50% Comp. Pct. things.
Jalen Hurts’ first 4 NFL starts, as a rookie, in Comp. Pct. in each game: 57%, 55%, 54%, 35%. Within those 4 games he had two 300+ yard passing games and also ran for 68.0 yards per game.
Year two Jalen Hurts…61.3% Comp. Pct. for the season.
Year three Jalen Hurts…66.5% Comp. Pct. for the season…and a trip to the Super Bowl, where he outplayed Patrick Mahomes.
Anthony Richardson has 2x the arm strength of Hurts and is one of the most lethal/accurate deep ball throwers in the NFL already, and he hasn’t even played a regular season game yet. Like Hurts, Richardson will get better as he goes. He’s a natural. He just needs more reps. He has grown just from Week 1 to Week 3 of the preseason.
Weeks 1-2 Richardson vs. Week 8+ Richardson will be night and day difference this season…and so will 2023 v. 2024 Richardson.
-- Who was Richardson throwing to?
First note: Josh Downs (0-0-0/2) started here…NOT Isaiah McKenzie (1-8-0/1), and that’s the right call. Like with Richardson v. Minshew…it’s not a complicated decision with this Colts team and the iteration that it is in. I will be very impressed with this new Colts H-C if I see Downs starting or doesn’t start but plays way more snaps than McKenzie Week 1.
From the jump, Richardson was throwing to Alec Pierce (0-0-0/3)…deep…and they couldn’t connect. But Richardson was taking his shots. A lot of 2-3 catches for 50-80+ yards and some long plays/long TDs coming from Pierce this season…along with some 0-1 catch games on 5-7 targets probably. Pierce is a perfect WR for Richardson’s long ball desire -- high-end speed with size/reach. But there will be a lot of near-miss moments and lots of ‘air yards’ for people who care about that to get excited about.
Michael Pittman (2-24-0/5) started getting work too, but it was Pierce early here…and it has felt all along that Richardson has Pierce on even footing or above Pittman in his target hierarchy.
Richardson was NOT throwing to Jelani Woods, because Jelani continues to miss time with a hamstring injury, and he has totally blown his opportunity to seize the starting TE spot. We’ll see if Jelani goes right into the starting role upon his return…or if he has to work for it. On most teams he’d have to work for the #1 role back…but the way Steichen is going, he probably realizes that Woods is better than all his other TEs combined…IF he can get him on the field. We’ll see. Very frustrating for a guy that I thought could be a TE1 from the jump this year.
-- Let’s finish out the Colts offense with a look at their JT-less backfield…
I’m 50/50 on a Jonathan Taylor trade happening now/today. I was 90/10 thinking it would NOT happen all week prior, but I think Miami senses blood in the water here…and they want to be a run-based team at their core.
If I were the Miami GM, I would trade my 1st-round pick in 2024 (which will likely be a #25+/late pick) for JT…AND I’d want a 3rd or 4th-round pick back to offset the 1st that I sent (and Miami had to forfeit their 3rd-round pick for 2024 from prior misdealings)…and I’d rather have the Colts 3rd than my own 1st/late, in reality, anyway...or am just as fine with that 3rd than a late 1st.
If I did a deal here, then I would have just bought my run game bent H-C (McDaniel) a high-end RB to be his bell cow...and then I don’t have to guess on rookie RBs in the draft. Or I can guess, on day three ones, where RBs should go…and get someone to work behind JT.
I bet this deal happens this weekend...maybe once Indy can get Kareem Hunt to agree to a reasonable deal to be the replacement for JT. It’s also possible a deal for Clyde Edwardas-Helaire is being worked on instead…and the Indy group is tight with the KC group.
If a JT deal does happen, then the rest of these RB notes really matter for the moment…and I’ll take it from a perspective that Indy does trade JT this weekend and Hunt/CEH/??? is not added yet…
Deon Jackson (4-8-1, 1-6-0/3) started the second week in a row…so, let’s assume Jackson would be ‘the starter’ the day of a JT trade. But it’s not good enough…DJax is a nice backup but he’s not a real lead to get excited about.
Evan Hull (6-25-1, 0-0-0/0) is running as the #2…and looks more boring than DJax.
Kenyan Drake (5-21-0, 2-22-1/3) looks better than all of them…two weeks running…but gets treated like a nobody every game.
The most likely outcome, as a bettor of it…or guesser of it: Taylor is traded to Miami AND Indy signs or trades for a real-ish RB announced at the same exact time. The hold up on this deal could be the Hunt negotiations or CEH trade talks…that the JT side of it is already agreed upon awaiting Indy’s plan B to be secured.
For FF purposes…JT to Miami would be terrific for his output compared to in Indy with a rookie running QB, I suspect.
And I think the JT move by Miami could also be sped up because De’Von Achane hasn’t been what they hoped in their early glance.
-- Not much to discuss on the Philly side, they really sat out most players of note, but here’s the Eagles player notes I do have...
Marcus Mariota (1-2 for 21 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) played briefly and is still terrible. Rookie Tanner McKee (19-34 for 158 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) played most of the game...and he isn’t an answer either but might be better than Mariota right now.
The Eagles tried to push Trey Sermon (16-30-1, 4-26-0/4) as ‘a thing’ for the 3rd week in a row...it’s not working. He’s terrible. He’s Benny Snell Jr.
TE Tyree Jackson (3-31-0/4)...I still haven’t seen that former spark, that former athletic flash from him yet...so many injuries the past few years.
Rookie LB Ben VanSumeren (17 tackles, 11 solos) must have read my negative review of him last week. He was running around possessed this game, but it still didn’t look very good. A very soft wrap up in his tackling still. But he may stick around a bit on the roster after this game effort.
Rookie SAF Sydney Brown (4 tackles) is gonna be a star safety in the league. As I was watching this game live, twice I saw a #21 from the front of his jersey speeding by everyone in pursuit of a ballcarrier. The first time I saw it, I was like ‘whoa, who is #21’...then my dog burst into the office and I got distracted and lost the thought. A little later, I saw the same thing and had the same reaction...and I had to find out who that #21 was. It was Sydney Brown. He’s just moving differently than other rookie safeties I’ve seen this preseason...and he’s a hitter and non-stop effort.
-- Indy IDP notes...
CB Dallis Flowers (5 tackles, 2 PDs) is definitely starting for Indy Week 1...and I like him, but he is potentially going to get off to a rocky start thrown into the fire in 2023. He plays a little too arrogant/confident, to me, right now. He has the talent through.
LB E.J. Speed (5 tackles, 2 TFLs) is set to start as well...his first time as the true starter. He is really good/promising/fast/aggressive and will get TFLs for you....as witnessed here.
-- The Colts lost key swing OL Danny Pinter here...carted off after having his leg rolled up on. We await to see how bad the injury is (or isn’t). It would be a definite hit to this O-Line unit if he’s done for 2023.
