Game overview:
Welp, not much scouting for this game…the Steelers ran their 1st-team for two series against Atlanta’s soon-to-be-released team, and it was a joke…the biggest joke being that the Steelers even risked their starters not once but twice in a series to start this game.
I bet $3 on ATL +10.5 in-game line movement, as I noted I would yesterday, once PITT scored first. I was then hoping Pickett/the 1st-team would be out of the game from there and it be a pure battle of the backups – which is what I was betting ATL on. But PIT didn’t lift Pickett right away…so another TD drive with Pickett/the 1st-team to get it to 14-0, so I tacked on a $1 bet with ATL +13.5…then again at ATL +17.5…and ATL botched every scoring possibility and 3rd-down stop or 3rd-down conversion the rest of the game and…so, no coffee bet win for my following morning. I had to make my own coffee in the Keurig like a common peasant. Let me take a sip real-quick…
There may not be much to ‘discover’, scouting-wise, because of the way the Falcons went about this, but there are FF impact things to discuss coming off of this…
Scouting Notes from the game:
-- Why in God’s name Kenny Pickett (4-4 for 86 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) played at all here is a mystery that can only be solved if you just assume most/all NFL head coaches are insane. There was nothing to glean here for their offense facing such non-competition.
The head coaches talk before the game and discuss what level of team they’re putting out there…they try to discuss in advance to possibly get on the same page-ish for the benefit of both teams. I don’t know if those talks happened here, because this was a mercy killing of the Falcons…the Steelers played it for two series like it was the Super Bowl and the Falcons basically forfeited.
So, you’d hope Pickett would go out there and kill it against no competition…and he did. Mission accomplished. Three times/games in-a-row the Steelers 1st-team offense came in and blew the opponents door’s off…but this was the worst/least impressive showing of the three because they did it against nobodies, for the most part, and they’d already shown this cohesion in prior preseason games.
But…what ‘the fans’ will see on the highlights is: the Steelers rolling on offense, and Pickett looking great…AGAIN…and now week-by-week Pickett is getting more support from the FF-masses because of the positive TV hypnosis for three weeks. And that’s a problem if you’re counting on Pickett’s ADP to stay as depressed. All this appearance accomplished was to drive Pickett’s ADP higher…not as high as it should be, but higher…less of a deal than last week, but still a deal.
And this squash match is gonna drive up Pickett’s over/under TD and yardage betting lines as well, but…oddly…these prop bets odds are still slowly moving not radically moving -- there is still time to bet this ‘free money’ win before others catch on and make it more expensive to do so.
Pickett looked as good here as all his prior preseason game appearances. I am not more emboldened nor concerned about anything here with Pickett’s play. It was a neutral event for me because the Falcons put up no real resistance.
-- A constant in these three Steelers preseason games: Pickett looking great, the Steelers scoring on every 1st-team offensive drive, and George Pickens (1-35-0/1) making a stupendous catch that alerts you that he’s a star-in-waiting. There’s a lot of good young WRs out there in the world -- Pickens may be the best of all of them…and now, Pickett looks like a QB for Pickens that can turbocharge this for FF.
The one negative remains with Pickens…he’s got some ‘knucklehead’ in him. I don’t know what he’ll do with success or how he’ll react to a moment of failure (or lack of targets in a game), if/when it happens.
-- Another constant this Steelers 1st-team offense preseason…three games, three times Jaylen Warren (2-14-1) is so obviously better than Najee Harris (4-18-1, 1-16-0/1) that it shouldn’t even be a debate point.
But I listened Steve Marucci in the pregame moments before kick, and he still has his head so far up Najee’s arse that his pompadour gives Harris a tummy ache…but ‘the Mooch’, an analyst who people definitely hinge on his every football word, talked about how the Steelers need to get behind Najee but help him out some by running the ball more with ‘some of the other guys’ to give Najee a break (assumedly from carrying the offense was the context).
‘Some of the other guys’…
I would bet a thousand dollars if I could’ve asked ‘The Mooch’ a follow question live on air -- who he thought the best ‘other guy’ RB on the Steelers was, he wouldn’t have been able to name one/Jaylen Warren. We might have gotten a Bennie Snell (now of the Lions) response…of which I would have then given my thousand dollars just won back to ‘The Mooch’ for providing me a moment of Zen.
I would guess Mariucci makes at least a quarter million dollars base salary per year analyzing football for the masses/NFL Network.
The masses are not getting fed much Jaylen talk at all because it is heresy to go against Najee…it’s not even under consideration for THEM. FF analysts are seeing it/sensing it way ahead of the NFL analysts, per usual, but FF analysts will only go so far supporting Warren because their football overlords at ESPN or NFL Network aren’t that excited about or aware of the Steelers ‘other guy’ RB.
Warren will remain around his current ADP from now until kickoff…the #45+ RB in ADP, a #130+ pick as the ‘handcuff’ for Najee.
Najee is the #10 RB in ADP, top 25 overall in ADP by comparison. Our #1-2-3 (it fluctuates) rated most ‘Overvalued’ player for FF 2023, right now.
-- Two young Steelers weapons that will help Pickett as well…
Calvin Austin (1-3-0, 1-8-0/1) continues to look like a great gadget weapon…if the Steelers will use him some. He doesn’t play much with the 1st-team in the preseason but is the main KR/PR…and he almost housed a punt return for a TD early in this game.
TE Connor Heyward (4-11-0, 2-27-0/2) continues to get ‘random’ work running the ball as a tailback and getting some clever targeting. He could be a surprise TE1.5/2.0 from unique usage while only playing 15-20 snaps a game…a discount Taysom Hill at best.
-- Let’s talk about three Steelers IDPs that caught my attention here…
Rookie LB Nick Herbig (3 tackles, 1.0 sacks) is really coming on. He’s more depth, more pass rush weaponry for a solid defense in 2023. It won’t be long before he’s a starter…hard to keep him off the field.
Veteran LB Elandon Roberts (3 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 2 TFLs) played this game like his life depended upon it…and he looked great. More depth to solidify that formerly terrible LB group. Roberts will start with Cole Holcomb in 2023…a HUGE upgrade with the linebacking group from the past 2-3 years of awfulness.
Rookie CB Joey Porter (2 tackles) was playing late into this game…it doesn’t look like he’s captured the Steelers attention/hearts to be an instant starter in 2023, but he’s nice depth in development for sure.
This is the best Steelers defense in years…if T.J. Watt can stay healthy.
-- We’re coming to the end of this report, and I have not typed out one Falcons’ player’s name…because they don’t deserve it. The Falcons got whooped early, but then also got whooped when it was backups v. backups.
The Falcons have a ‘defense’ problem, and have for years…and you would think they’d push that new-design unit out there to test themselves vs. the Steelers’ 1st-team offense, but they did not -- a bad sign of either Art Smith afraid of what would happen OR he doesn’t care about the defense.
I thought the Falcons-DST would be a cute 2023 deep sleeper based on schedule and with some of their upgrades of personnel and an upgrade at D-C…but this defense has sucked all preseason. I have seen not one sign of life from this young/changed defense.
ATL rookie slot CB Clark Phillips (3 tackles) looked pretty good trying to fight the Steelers 1st-team offense. There…I mentioned a Falcons player before the end of this report.
