Game overview:
Three Browns preseason games…three (RC) judge’s scoring card victories over their opponents, in the football ‘critique’ sense (1-1-1 record otherwise). The team I’ve been most impressed with this preseason, and it’s still early, is the Cleveland Browns.
When a preseason team’s backups are beating their opponent’s 1st-team glimpse and having no issue with their 2nd-3rd-teams…that’s a good sign for depth in-season and projecting how good their starters are, if these are their backups/the way their backups are performing.
Cleveland has all the hallmarks of a top team -- top O-Line (arguably the best, deepest in the league), very good secondary (when they’re all healthy…as they are right now), a stable-to-good QB. Now, we can add depth and a reasonable backup QB in an emergency.
We sent out a betting alert on the Browns +3.5 for this game, and we had to sweat it to the end, but it came in. It shouldn’t have been that close/ended in a tie. The Browns fumbled a TD run near the goal line among other mishaps…and most all the mishaps coming from, as I’ve said for multiple games/weeks in a row now, the single worst preseason player in the NFL (non-QB), RB John Kelly. Had John Kelly not played in this game, the Browns would’ve won by 2+ scores. Kelly is the great equalizer for the Browns. If he makes the 53-man roster, then I’m taking back all my enthusiasm for the Browns 2023.
Fortunately, the Browns have one of the five best players from the 2023 NFL Draft as the neutralizer to the plague Kelly brings forth -- the Browns have Dawand Jones. More on how he handled Jalen Carter (again…did so in college as well) and Nolan Smith in the player scouting section.
The Eagles did not have a good night. Their 2nd-team simply isn’t as good as the Browns 2nd/3rd-team. This is two weeks in-a-row where I walk away from their preseason game thinking Philly might have some issues this season, from a ‘top team’ perspective…they have sketchy depth on offense, especially in trouble at backup QB. Jalen Hurts cannot afford to get hurt this season…is the one sentence that sums up the Eagles 2023 outlook.
My one sentence on the Browns right now -- better than the Eagles with the exception of QB. Putting it another way, if the Browns were in the NFC East, they’d probably be my pick to win the division.
Scouting Notes from the game:
-- I’d like to begin with the Eagles’ RB situation/scouting. And let me begin that by making some splash statements, some reactionary statements from what I’ve seen so far this preseason AND what I know of these players from past scouting/observation…
Kenneth Gainwell (2-6-0) started and just does not look like a real, legit starting NFL RB. He can not purposely lead an NFL backfield, for long. He can contribute or fill-in in an emergency, but he simply is not a legit lead RB…I don’t care that there was some camp report where he took 1st-team reps in practice one day.
D’Andre Swift (DNP), played Week 1, sat out here, is the way better version of what people think Gainwell is/could be. And Swift isn’t perfect either…not an obvious lead back.
Rashaad Penny (2-18-0) came in after Gainwell this game…and he just does not look like the Penny that I remember. He’s coming off injury and surgery. He’s back to plausible but he doesn’t yet look explosive or obvious.
The Eagles RB situation is a three-headed monster of Swift-Penny-Gainwell, to me…trying to handicap it right now. It’s going to be hot hand and RRBC…because none of them are standing out aside from Swift, that I see. The Eagles have three useful RBs -- in reality they have three RBs but really have none. Swift is their best hope as I see it right now.
For FF purposes, good luck trying to guess the touch counts and flow to use this backfield for FF. It’s going to be a tough situation to figure out. Swift would be my main FF-interest of the group now…a shift from some previous Penny love. Swift may be the best FF hope but, in reality, I don’t wanna FF-swim in this Eagles RB pool…unless I’m desperate.
A final RB note -- Nick Sirianni keeps trying to push/promote Trey Sermon (5-54-1, 1-14-0/1) but there is nothing there. The more he loves Sermon to anyone who will listen…the more worried I am that he has no feel for the RB talent he has (or has not).
Jalen Hurts better not got hurt = the mission statement for Philly in 2023. The replacement song lyrics for ‘Fly Eagles Fly’. Not as catchy, but 100x more pertinent.
Jalen Hurts’ health status stands between Philly ending up in 3rd place in this division and making a Super Bowl run again. Ditto Cincinnati in the AFC North…only they’d finish last without Burrow. I’m not sure the Chiefs could win a weak AFC West if Mahomes was gone. It’s amazing how truly QB dependent the top teams really are.
-- Dorian Thompson-Robinson (13-25 for 164 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 4-18-0) started for the Browns, and has now shown more in his three preseason games than what Bryce Young has shown/been allowed to even try to show in any practice or in his first preseason game debut.
2023 might be the turning point against ‘anointed’ QBs from the NFL Draft…a move away from the pampered big school, highly paid (NIL) QB prospects who work behind pristine O-Lines with all-star WR groups -- they might actually be ill-prepared for the NFL in comparison to guys like DTR or Brock Purdy (or I could name 5-10 more from the past two years) who had to operate in lesser situations and carried their college teams -- those QBs may be better prepared for the NFL rigors than the pampered class of college QBs.
Just a working theory I’m watching/studying.
If Bryce Young flops again this week…I think the dam may begin to break on him, and part of the realization being people watching rookie QBs like DTR hit the ground running where Bryce is being coddled…and still not showing anything the analysts said were true of him. The whole scouting system could be rocked in all in two weeks of preseason previews. A lot riding on Young and Stroud this week.
DTR is solid…and another reason to like the Browns, because if they lose Watson -- there is some hope in DTR. If Joe Burrow goes down for Cincy…the Bengals are all but done. If Kenny Pickett goes down for the Steelers…Pittsburgh is all but done. Thinking of their division foes…but DTR is better than all their divisional foe’s QBs except maybe Baltimore’s, right now…but DTR may be preferred there too.
-- Thompson-Robinson wasn’t perfect here, but his WRs helped him look a whole lot better. The 2nd-team WR group working in this game for Cleveland smacked around the Eagles 2nd-team secondary. The 4th and 5th WRs for the Browns could be starters/the 3rd-best WR for the Eagles -- and I am going to keep pounding this Browns v. Eagles comparison, not to create big fear in Philly, but to show just what the Browns are sitting on/possess.
I pointed it out last week, but it wasn’t like I discovered him, I’ve been blind to him for the past two years too, but Browns WR Austin Watkins (7-139-1/14) looks like a legit NFL starting WR, right now. Well, if there was any doubt about that…you can watch this game for evidence. The Browns stole/stumbled into something with Watkins here. A free #3-4 WR for them out of nowhere.
They can thank SF and TB for both possessing and then cutting Watkins over the past two years.
Watkins made some tough, clutch catches in this game…but so too did rookie WR Cedrick Tillman (2-50-0/3). Tillman is a nice #4-5 WR to possess for the 2023 season for Cleveland…Watkins is better. Such depth all over for the Browns. It quietly has just ‘happened’. Not sure if luck or genius from the Browns personnel department, but whatever it is -- it looks really good/promising right now.
Before we think they’re geniuses, the Browns did pick David Bell (1-7-0) #99 last year and pending bust Anthony Schwartz (4-33-0/10) was a #91 pick in 2021. Schwartz may get cut soon.
-- A quick note on the Browns RB situation…UDFA rookie Hassan Hall (8-16-0, 2-11-0/5) looks like the Browns best option as a #3 RB. And with #2 Jerome Ford sidelined right now, Hall kinda matters…even though he’s still running behind America’s Worst Running Back (John Kelly).
…but we may be moving towards the Browns, as a team, being too good to go into 2023 with inexperienced Ford or Hall as the backups. I think a return of Kareem Hunt here, on a 1-year deal, is very possible. I like Jerome Ford, but if he’s dinged up it’s just TOO easy/logical to add Hunt, if Indy and Minny and the Saints pass on Kareem.
If Hunt gets signed to the Browns…there will be a panic on Nick Chubb’s value for FF 2023, FYI.
Hunt can get more money from a panicked Indy or Minny, but if Jon Taylor is fine and returns ‘happy’…Hunt is not in play there (with any real payday). And the Vikings are delusional with Alex Mattison, so they won’t throw a ton at Hunt. The Saints would take Hunt cheap…but Hunt doesn’t need to take a cheap deal. IF Hunt does take a cheap deal, he’d take it back with the Browns…my prediction.
-- Marcus Mariota (9-17 for 86 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) shouldn’t be in the league anymore. He was part of my rationale for betting on CLE +3.5 in this game…Mariota looked terrible last week, and just as bad/worse here.
Jalen Hurts better not get injured this season.
You know who Philly should sign, but they can’t for obvious reasons -- Carson Wentz.
You know who Philly should trade for, but the other team would NEVER give this to their perceived main competitor -- Trey Lance, to understudy with Jalen Hurts.
-- Eagles former QB-turned-TE project Tyree Jackson (2-41-0/2) popped up on my TV and in the box score…that was nice to see. He looks OK, but after all of his surgeries he just does not look the same as he did a couple years ago. I think this deep long shot daydream is just about over…and been over.
-- Philly IDP report…
Jalen Carter played a few snaps here and was the cause celebre last week on his one play. FYI…Dawand Jones handled him here, again, like it was nothing special. Dawand handled him in the CFB playoffs and again in this game. Jones also handled their other Georgia 1st-round pick Nolan Smith (1 tackle). Two 1st-round pick pass rushers were NO real match for the 4th-round guy who doesn’t love football (the supposed knock), Right Tackle Dawand Jones…the steal of the 2023 NFL Draft, possibly the steal of the decade in the NFL Draft.
Smith did almost beat Jones on one pass rush. On this one play, Jones shoved Smith to the ground like he was squashing a bug but Smith kept his feet while pushed down and he was like hunched down to a 2-3 foot size human/4-legged animal hybrid and was still moving forward at high speed…and the pass play took longer than expected, with DTR sitting too long in the pocket (due to good coverage, I guess), and Smith was super low to the ground and speeding past Jones and towards the QB, but as the mini-Smith was accelerating past Jones and towards the QB, Dawand just reached down with his pool cue long arms and pawed/clubbed Smith in the back and that set Smith falling down while trying to run at the QB and just as Smith was about to collapse from the laws of gravity and fulcrums he desperately lunged at DTR for a ankle grab sack…but DTR just stepped up and moved away from it…as Smith touched his ankle, maybe, but then ate the turf without a sack to show for him ‘win’ over Dawand.
How was it analyzed by the game commentators? Oh, look how great Nolan Smith is, he got past the big guy and almost had the sack. Not quite…
Analysts are so up the arse of the Philly-Georgia Line prospects they cannot see what is right in front of their faces -- Dawand Jones IS the story or should be. But he didn’t play for Georgia on defense, so it doesn’t matter. They rarely/never talk about Jones in these preseason games…it’s stunning to me because I can’t not see what he’s doing, which is breathtakingly good…and he does it with ease. However, Dawand did get beat once or twice in this game...he miss-read a blitz on one play and a linebacker shot through clean. But what I love about Dawand is...anytime I've seen him get kinda beat or almost beat on a play -- he fires up from there, like he was starting to get bored and now suddenly someone challenged him to a duel and he's gonna mess them up next plays/series/rest of the game.
Speaking of failing Philly-Georgia Line things on defense. I watched some Nakobe Dean (3 tackles) in this game, just iso’d on him…and I still do not get this at all. It’s an issue for the Philly defense if they start him, potentially…a weak middle linebacker on an otherwise good defense. Christian Elliss (5 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 PD) might be able to save the day at linebacker, and he’s been one of the stars of camp…but he went to Idaho, not Georgia…so, he doesn’t get drafted and he works behind Dean for now.
Jalen Hurts better not get hurt this season.
The Eagles are killing themselves from within…the murderer is calling from inside the house…Howie Roseman.
Jalen Hurts, who nobody wanted the Eagles to take or keep or start…better not get hurt this season. It’s my 2023 drumbeat…or one of them. We may be at the peak, and subsequent decline ahead, of the Roman/Eagles Empire. The 2023 season may be the last great window for a while for the Eagles. Once Lane Johnson and Jason Kelce give out…this puppy is gonna fall, as it stands now…and thus could be Kelce’s last season.
Rookie SAF Sydney Brown (1 tackle) was so good last week, and he was fine here too…just not in for long this game, because he has little to prove. A future star defender for them…and shockingly didn’t play for Georgia. Howie got this one right.
-- Speaking of really good rookie safeties…Browns rookie SAF UDFA Ronnie Hickman (2 tackles, 1 INT), who we like a lot, picked off his third pass in the past two games. Another steal/depth for the Browns.
The Browns leader in tackles here was UDFA rookie Mohamoud Diabate (8 tackles, 1 TFL). He was knocked for being a bit too small for linebacker (6’3”/225) but looks like he’s bulking up a bit and he has athleticism and is quick/bendy to chase ballcarriers and rush the passer. He might be a Browns steal as well.
This Browns-DST might be no joke this season. Unfortunately, Week 1…they face Joe Burrow.
-- And we’ll wrap it up on the struggles of kicker Cade York (3/4 FGs, 1/1 XPs). He’s been taking a beating in the local media for missed FGs this preseason (and back to last season). In this game, he lined up for a game winner/tale the lead late and gaffed it, but a penalty saved him…another chance from five yards closer for the win, and he missed that one too.
This is going from ‘he’ll (York) just work it out’ to ‘does he have the yips now’? This could hurt my raging Browns love for 2023…but there will be veteran options available. I think the Browns should just stick with the young/talented kid for a bit longer, since everyone everywhere else that’s not elite is missing kicks in the preseason too. Just keep grooming York, get his confidence up…and go-for-it on more 4th-downs instead.
