Game overview:
Obviously, this game scouting/report is going to be led by reviewing the Bryce Young debut. You might guess from the score how well things went for Bryce/the Panthers…
As far as a game overview, this was a total embarrassment by the Panthers. The Jets may be OK-good-great…hard to tell, but I can tell you the Panthers are awful, and are gonna be awful this season. I can see this plane crash coming in slow motion…while I had to listen to the Carolina local commentators calling this game being so excited about Young and the future of the Panthers. Honey, no…just no.
It’s gonna be really bad for Carolina the next few years…I’m visiting you from the future and warning you it’s gonna be bad…but you’re not gonna listen because the power of the entirety of the football intelligentsia is up the arse of Bryce Young…and they will be for years. It’s gonna be sad to watch, but I’ve seen it before a million times.
And Young is not going to get a Trevor Lawrence-esque lifeline in that the poorly run organization is forced to fire the disaster head coach and so many coaches turn them down they fall backwards into one of the best coaches/offensive minds in the NFL to put safeguards around the offense. Young is stuck with his surroundings for at least two more years.
The worst thing I’ve seen so far in watching the 2023 Week 1 preseason games (and I’m not even halfway through yet) is this Carolina offense. If you think, ‘Well, it’s just one preseason game,’ that’s true but if you’re awful in a preseason game…it’s not a good sign…and it wasn’t on Bryce Young, he’s really not THEE problem. You’ll see what I mean when I get more specific on the Panthers’ issues in the player scouting section.
Of course, we begin by reviewing Bryce Young’s debut…
Scouting Notes from the game:
-- Exactly what I expect to happen from Bryce Young with the Carolina Panthers in the Year of Our Lord 2023, paired with Frank Reich, happened in his three series of play.
It’s simple scouting, and it was true of him at Alabama and it was true here: If Young has a clean pocket, he can throw an accurate 5-yard ‘quick out’ in a clean pocket with the best of them…so can 50+ other NFL QBs. But when it’s a known passing down and/or there is pressure and Young doesn’t have the luxury to drop back and plant his roots into the ground and stand there like its non-contact practice -- he’s all but dead.
Young is so not used to pressure it’s going to be revelatory when he gets crushed with it in the NFL. All the latest Alabama top pick QBs have stumbled when they’re under pressure in the pocket early in their careers -- Tua, Mac…and now Bryce. You have to manipulate the game to play not to their strengths, but to hide their weaknesses with those Alabama trio of high pick/pampered QBs. Tua gets rid of the ball in a blink now…if he sits in the pocket with any pressure, he dies…but he’s an ace of the group at quick passing with a sweet quick release. Mac not-so-much a quick passing/quick release guy but he’s OK. Bryce not so much either…probably the lesser/least arm of the three.
Bryce is a game manager not an elite franchise QB or game changer type of QB. If you protect Young, give him time, he’ll distribute the ball just fine. When games are out of hand in the final 2-5-15 minutes of games, he’ll slice and dice prevent defenses to death with a thousand paper cut throws under no real pressure or tight coverage for his short passes. But when things aren’t perfect…Bryce is cooked. Bryce can hang in the league with that ‘game manager’ ability, but he’s not going to thrive/become a star.
And Young will not be a star in 2023 because this game was a display of one of the worst offensive line play that you will see in 2023. Young must have protection/time…and he’s maybe working behind one of the 1-2-3 worst offensive lines in the league. It’s a BAD mix. Bryce needs Trevor Lawrence’s O-Line and head coach, and he has the furthest thing from it.
Panthers 1st-round pick, #6 overall, LT Ikem Ekonwu is on the verge of being a bust…or he already is. Maybe something will snap into place for him, but he looks so bad in pass protection. How can a guy look so dominant in college and then be such an aloof goof in the NFL, on the O-Line? Quarterback failure from college-to-pro, I can see…but I’m shocked how bad Ekonwu is every time I watch him in pass protection, when he ruled in college.
The Panthers blew it with their 1st-round pick last year and this year (they should’ve taken Kenny Pickett last year…it was right there!)…and then they are exacerbating the awful 1st-round picks of late by hiring a head coach that is one of the worst in the league. Carolina is in for a 3+ year slow motion, filled with excuses every year and O-C changes, etc., trainwreck.
I’m not going to debate that last statement with anyone, because no one is even open to the thought, so no sense in debating it (there never is). Just set a calendar reminder for 3 years from now and tell me if I lied. If I see a change between now-and-then…if I see my initial and current scouting is wrong, I’ll be out in front of it. Got no shame in being wrong…it is shameful if I don’t change when needed…but I don’t think I’ll be wrong here. I’m usually not wrong on these things. Too many bad pieces connected here to succeed -- from the owner, to this head coach, to Bryce’s limited NFL physical gifts, to the O-Line problem.
Swerving to the other Panthers’ draft pick QB…memba Sam Corral (15-22 for 126 yards, 0 TD/1 INT). He looked like Bryce here, only Corral has a stronger arm but looks like he gets little time to work with the ‘main group’, so he looks like a lost puppy out there. If you think Carolina’s 1st-team O-Line was bad with Bryce…imagine what their 2nd-and-3rd-team O-Line was like that Corral was put out to die with.
-- Now, there is not one person with any football resume or credentials that would agree with everything I just wrote about Bryce Young/the Panthers. Most all my biggest scouting wins/’I was right’ moments come when I am all alone on one side of the trade, and the entirety of football scouting is on the other…like with Jameis Winston, Sam Darnold, Blaine Gabbert, Dwayne Haskins to name a few at the QB spot. I have no worries here that I am all alone on this theory. I’m comforted that I am.
But with most general fans who might read this…I’ll be banned from their lives because most of us, in all things (not just football) side with ‘the wisdom of the crowds’. We are slaves to the consensus opinion without even realizing it…just so happens this hive mind exists more in football than about anything else. My Bryce Young take is not a ‘hot take’ for attention…it actually hurts my business in the short run because so many people tune out because ‘it can’t be true’. Long term, if I’m right…nobody on the outside of FFM will remember…so, the ‘hot take’ aspect of this -- it’s not a ‘hot take’, it’s an analysis that I will be on handicapping wise and FF-wise, and I will try and help all of us profit from it. I’m putting my money where my mouth is on Bryce and Carolina.
I’m saying all this not to pump myself up -- I am saying it ahead of this next/upcoming football statement that if the Bryce take didn’t kill me off dead with any new people reading this…then this next take should do the trick to finish me off.
Here goes…
This was the best Zach Wilson (14-20 for 123 yards, 1 TD/ 0 INT) performance I’ve seen from him in the NFL. That’s not the kill shot for me.
Zach Wilson is way more talented than Bryce Young…that’s the kill shot. Have a good life for those who are frantically hitting the ‘x’ in the upper right of your webpage or just swiping this webpage out of existence on their cellphones.
For those remaining, hear me out…
I said Wilson was more talented, but that doesn’t mean he’s the better professional QB…just yet (or maybe never). Wilson’s physical tools are far superior to Young’s. That shouldn’t really be a ‘hot take’. Everyone should agree with that…Wilson has a WAYYY better arm/arm strength and Wilson is much more mobile, and bigger, than Young. If you vehemently disagree with any of that, I want to figuratively swipe you out of my football life too…two can play at that game! If you hesitate to agree with that -- it shows you are suckered in by the Bryce Young brainwashing…your evaluation is being driven by the drumbeat of what THEY say…which makes you a sucker. It’s OK…I used to be a unwitting sucker too. I founded my company on trying to be the opposite of the football sucker I was. I have my 10 and 15-year chip from football mainstream anonymous. I can be your sponsor if you wanna get clean from them.
Bryce Young is a better decision maker right now than Wilson…and probably better at if forever, but Bryce cannot do the things Wilson can do with his arm and feet. He never will be able to. However, Wilson MIGHT learn to make those simple decisions, to play more under control…it’s possible to change/learn those things. However, Young’s arm is not getting much/any stronger the rest of his life and will never be stronger (or close) than Wilson’s. And he’ll never be taller or faster than Wilson.
OK, back to Zach Wilson in this game…
This was the first time I’ve seen Zach Wilson play ‘under control’ for the entirety of his playing time in any game. Usually, Wilson has a few plays where he is under control then has a bad-Brett-Favre-ing moment where he’s trying to force throws, trying to make heroic plays way downfield, throwing passes up for grabs, etc. In this game, Wilson stayed under control…a lot of quick hitter throws to the proper receiver, which I’ve seen him do some before -- but then he’ll ruin it with some wild-arse throw downfield that makes no sense…he didn’t have one bad throw here. About half his six incompletions were great throws that the WR couldn’t handle…and another 1-2 incompletions were ‘good’ incompletions where Wilson purposefully threw the ball away/over the head of the receiver that was covered -- normally, he might try and force it to the receiver.
No forcing the ball this game. No off kilter deep ball heaves into coverage downfield. Just savvy frozen ropes short and medium. It was a great outing for Wilson. FINALLY, someone may be getting through to him. I think he may just need a real coach/coordinator and he’s never had one prior in the NFL. Maybe. We’ll see. Next week, he could burn it all to the ground. He was so good at BYU…I think he has it in him, but he needs help/guidance…maybe. Perhaps he’s too immature to ever ‘get it’.
If you take Zach Wilson’s physical gifts and take Bryce Young’s vision and demeanor for running a passing game and mashed them together -- you would get a discount version of…Aaron Rodgers.
And it may be that Aaron Rodgers is the one shaping/fixing Wilson, in which case Rodgers is getting underpaid for his combo QB play/QB coaching.
Zach Wilson is back from the dead for a deep Dynasty roster watch…at least for this week. Next week, we may damn him back to FF-Hades.
-- The Jets RB report…
Michael Carter (4-19-0, 2-34-0/2) started here, which makes me think he is the #2 right now…which has #1 hope if Breece Hall misses a game or two. And Carter did look solid/good here.
Zon Knight (4-13-0, 1-3-0/2) came in next and was not as good as Carter, but he was fine. If Breece is out, it’s probably a Knight-Carter split role.
Rookie Israel Abanikanda (12-56-0, 3-31-0/3) had a nice showing here…and he would likely see some carries in the RBBC if Breece was out, but Carter-Knight-Abanikanda all existing/playing means none of them is the ‘true’/great handcuff.
-- All three of the Jets RBs names above are way better than Carolina’s backup RBs…or probably better than their #1 RB (Sanders).
Chuba Hubbard (4-9-0, 1-3-0/1) is a waste of time…in an era where there is such bountiful RB talent to explore, Hubbard is not one of them.
Spencer Brown (8-34-0, 3-4-0/3) looked definitely looked better than Hubbard but will likely not make the team, but Hubbard will be…and be a #2 RB.
More proof of the looming Carolina disaster…one of the weakest RB groups in the NFL.
-- It was Carolina rookie WR Jonathan Mingo’s (0-0-0/0) debut…and well…as Bryce Young goes…
The Panthers also have a weak WR group…to go with a very weak RB group to go with a rookie QB all set up behind one of the worst O-Lines in the league.
This Panthers team will be a full-scale disaster in 2023…I can feel it. It’s not Bryce’s fault.
-- I’m FF-unimpressed with three young receivers for the Jets so far this preseason…
2nd-year TE Jeremy Ruckert (2-19-0/2) is a stiff, as expected.
Rookie TE Zach Kuntz (2-17-1/2) is still very aloof…gangly…not smooth. He scored a TD very late in the game…he was wide open and caught a soft toss short score. I love his measurables…but haven’t seen ‘it’ yet with him. I’m still holding out hope, but he probably needs a year or two.
Rookie UDFA WR Jason Brownlee (2-10-0/3) looks competent-not-special at this stage. He might make this 53-man roster, but he also needs a year of cooking in the oven…which he should get with the Jets roster situation. Limited ceiling in the future -- but is NFL worthy.
-- It’s hard to be sure whether I should praise the pair of 1st-round rookie edge rushers for the Jets or not.
2023 pick Will McDonald (1 tackle, 1 sack, 2 QB hits) and 2022 pick EDGE Jermaine Johnson (3 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 2 QB hits) both were getting into the backfield at will…but I think it was as much/more so the horrific Carolina O-Line play than it was these pass rushers being dominant forces.
