Using the rosters as they are as of July 1st, obviously everyone is healthy, and running our data to the NFL schedule and seeing 'what happens' and then taking that right through the playoffs.
This will be a series -- three weeks of results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
When the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all this in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
SUPER BOWL: #1 seed Eagles (14-5) at #1 seed Bengals (15-4)
A 'boring' matchup of the #1 seeds, I know…but last year, in the real NFL world's playoffs, we had the two #1 seeds (the only ones with a bye) make it through to the big game. It's not crazy to project it happening again…it's almost inevitable in a simulation/utopian look at an upcoming season.
OK, on with the show: The Eagles enter the Faux game as a -1.5 favorite by Vegas because of a 'they were here last year' mentality by Vegas and the public…and the perpetual disbelief of anything 'Bengals'.
1st-Quarter:
Philly scores on their very first drive, they act like they've been here before… Jake Elliott hits a 37-yard FG to take a quick 3-0 lead. Joe Burrow answers back with an 8-yard TD pass to Irv Smith to give Cincy the 7-3 lead.
2nd-Quarter:
The Eagles offense starts to sputter against a very underappreciated Bengals defense. The Bengals start to expose the Eagles weakness at linebacker and Joe Mixon is reeling off some chunk gains. The Bengals take a 14-3 lead when Burrow hits Chris Evans on a surprise wheel route out of the backfield for a 34-yard TD strike.
Jalen Hurts puts the Eagles offense on his back and starts to make plays with his feet against a prevent defense right before half. The Eagles go down the field with time running down before the half, sitting in the red zone they take some shots at the end zone and hit on a pass to Dallas Goedert for a 13-yard TD.
Halftime: Bengals 14, Eagles 10
HALFTIME SHOW:
In a surprise move, the NFL decides to stop having stupid dance-first pop singing stars control the halftime…instead they go to three different bands with three different styles to play up-tempo songs to leave people feeling like they're really at a rock concert event not a bland 'pop' show.
They also agree to pay $2M dollars to each band to perform, but also set aside $2M per band for a general Student Loan scholarship fund…not a fund but a lottery. The NFL will advertise ahead of the event like crazy, and the populace registers 1x with their favorite band of the three main acts playing this show -- eligible is any person with a student loan through the government processors. All throughout the second half of the game, on a crawl at the bottom of the TV feed and also online on NFL.com they announce/display the random winners…each winner gets $10K paid to the student loan processor on their behalf.
Also, as a build to this big event…the NFL will open the student loan fund up to businesses and players and whomever to donate to the fund. It will become a thing where everyone wants to get in on the action for goodwill advertising.
Sharp debate rages on TV and radio all the weeks leading up to this event…a debate that the people who already paid off their student loans are getting jobbed in this.
The fund then balloons to over $50M dollars with the business and individual sponsorships…5,000 winners of $10K each. People will be talking about it all next week…that they were a winner or they know of someone at work, at school, on the neighborhood block that really won! The NFL buys a ton of goodwill/buzz.
Because the NFL reached out to me for this entire killer idea, from the charity idea to the musical concept -- I got to pick the bands and the songs, so here's my show in three acts…
1) We need to kick this off with a bang.
Run DMC comes out to sing their first real mainstream reach/hit 'Rock Box', and everyone loves this throwback start (well, some people do…others are confused) -- but they only go for like a half a song, with like Pitbull as the fill-in Jam Master Jay DJ…then suddenly we transition to a different song and a surprise appearance by Public Enemy to sing 'Bring the Noise'…the rock version -- but sorry Anthrax you're out and Metallica is in, but they don't sing/rap anything. They just play the guitars/drums…but that's for a full song, but towards the end of it we transition to our final part of this trilogy ode to rap kickoff with 'You gotta Fight for your Right to Party' with the Beastie Boys, but we need some help since we lost 'MCA', so Eminem as the third member this night puts a twist on it to shock everyone.
We're not cooling it down with phase two…we're gonna keep the party jumping.
2) Joan Jett and her band goes on for 'I Love Rock n Roll'…because that's a perfectly good song everybody loves/knows the words to…and the young people can Google it. But we can't just have Joan Jett alone…Jett is quickly joined by Taylor Swift and Lady Gaga to hit more viewership demos, and the odd collaboration just works, and everyone is happy.
People can donate to fighting Breast Cancer all during this song, complete with info crawling along the bottom of the screen…which stays with the NFL's mission to support this charity.
3) A seemingly bizarre closing act appears, but I have a purpose -- Toby Keith, battling cancer, makes a tear-jerking appearance to close the show by singing 'Courtesy of the Red, White, and Blue' with surprise guest Kid Rock to help out. There's a ton of cutaways to all the military bases -- this song, this last set is for the troops and 'Merica. An homage to America and its military. There's nary a dry eye with the montage of military imagery…which goes hand-in-hand with the NFL's military support and honoring efforts.
There's great anticipation whether Keith will actually sing the line '…and we'll put a boot in your ass, it's the American way'. He's asked about it all media week, he doesn't reveal a thing. So, there's concern about the messaging and public perception all week from the uptight media…so when he hits that slowdown and pause into that lyric, and he kinda looks around slyly…and then he belts it out as is -- the entire stadium and country goes nuts, except for a few people with sticks up their ass as it is.
Boy, what a show so far…but there's still a 2nd-half of football to get to.
3rd-Quarter:
Jalen Hurts scrambles from a pass rush and takes off running and keeps running…and the impromptu play turns into a 55-yard TD run and the Eagles take the lead 17-14. The Bengals answered a little later with a 48-yard Evan McPherson FG…we're tied at 17-17.
Hurts hits A.J. Brown with a simple crossing pass from his own 20-yard line, AJB breaks the initial tackle and races for 79-yards…getting tackled at the 1-yard line. Rachaad Penny takes it home from there…24-17 Eagles.
4th-Quarter:
The defenses tighten up…the offenses pucker up. No scoring for 13 minutes. Cincy goes on a last chance 2-minute drill do-or-die drive to try to tie the game. With 0:07 seconds left…Burrow hits Ja'Marr Chase with a 5-yard TD strike to make it 24-23. The Eagles have no timeouts. Cincy doesn't either, as they race into place to go for two…to go for the win, not the tie.
Cincy had this play, this moment ready all week as the Eagles defense is frantically trying to recover from the moment and the play clock won't stop…and the Bengals run the 'Philly Special' in their faces…Joe Burrow catches the wide-open pass/2-point conversion and Cincinnati wins 25-24…they get the Super Bowl that has been robbed from them the past two years. The Eagles have to live with the irony of being beaten by their special play.
Joe Burrow is named MVP and tens of millions of dollars are raised for charity and distributed to 'the people'. And now musical acts want to play for free at halftime to help support next year's charity efforts.
That's it for Faux 2023, July edition…one more to go in September, after the preseason and 53-man rosters are settled.
