A new idea I had in order to help me go through the NFL team's rosters and examine all the personnel and coaching changes, etc., one-by-one. I'm going to look at two teams head-to-head in seven key categories (my bias on what is 'key'). The team that gets my vote in each category gets a 'win'…the first team to 4 wins moves on to the next round. Just a quick, hopefully fun, way to take the temperature of each team heading into the 2023 preseason.
The seven categories…it's actually six because one category is so important that it's worth double:
1-2) The quarterbacks comparison…the winner of this gets 2 wins, or if too close to call it could be a 1-1 split.
3) O-Line -- Judging which team has the better O-Line…the most critical aspect of a team after the QB.
4) Cornerbacks -- After O-Line, I think the most critical position is shutdown corners (or not having any).
5) Head Coach/Organization -- A battle of which coaches will get in the way less, to some degree but also an edge given to teams that will attract free agents or be a desired destination in trades…and what teams are filling the stadium for home games, etc. Everything rolled into one judgment call.
6) Offensive Weapons -- Which team has the better, scarier RB-WR-TE group.
7) Kicker -- If it comes down to #7, of course the kicker should make the determination...as the kicker often determines the winner of a 59+ minute war prior with a last second make/miss.
As we lead into each category and tap a winner -- I'm also listing the major add/loss for each team in the offseason so far, just to eyeball it as a list.
Is this a brilliant way to judge teams over another? Who knows! But it struck me as something fun to do while studying each team this preseason, after the majority of offseason moves have been made.
BUF major adds: TE Kincaid, OG O. Torrence, LB D. Williams, RB D. Harris, WR Harty, OG McGovern
BUF major losses: LB Edmunds, RB Singletary
---------------------------
MIA major adds: CB Ramsey, LB Long, QB M. White, CB Cam Smith, RB Achane
MIA major losses: LB Roberts, TE Gesicki
QB (2x): Tua is in the perfect offense for him, surrounded by the perfect weapons, etc., but he's in no way, shape, or form a better QB than Josh Allen.
Bills jump out (2-0)
O-Line: The Bills' O-Line was not good last year…ratings/performance-wise…a down year. But the Bills did have a better yards per carry run game and both teams were about even to each other in sacks per drop back %. However, the Dolphins had a ton of O-Line injuries…with their big guns at full strength (which is all we can assume), Miami looks a little better on paper but it's really close on a decision here.
Trying to find an edge here…if I leave it up to 'who has the better left tackle?', the most important spot…I'd take Miami's Terron Armstead over Buffalo's Dion Dawkins. A very slight edge win to Miami.
Miami closes the lead to (2-1) Buffalo.
CBs: Miami takes this hand's down with their new Howard-Ramsey alliance. Easy win for Miami.
The Dolphins tie it up (2-2).
HC/Organization: Another win for Miami. The Dolphins are probably the #1 most desired destination for players to go play football…the anti-Buffalo, for weather and off-field living condition-wise. And players wanna play for Mike McDaniel…and they're not over-the-moon to go play for Sean McDermott. Miami's GM has been very active and effective the past two seasons…the Bills, ehhh, not bad but not landing many big fish. All the advantages here go to Miami.
Miami roars back to take a (3-2) lead.
Weapons: This likely comes down to -- Would I rather have/possess Stefon Diggs and rookie Dalton Kincaid or Tyreek Hill-Jaylen Waddle?
That's a tough one. I see these two teams' backfields as fairly even. Tyreek Hill is probably my #1 weapon player to possess in all the NFL. Dalton Kincaid would be top 10, already. I'm not goo-goo over Stefon Diggs, but he's really good. Waddle is lesser desired than Diggs in 2023…but not by much. I so think Tyreek Hill is THE thing to have, the biggest difference maker (weapons-wise) in the league…I have to lean Miami.
Miami locks down the overall win (4-2).
Kicker: This is very close. My first instinct was to pick Tyler Bass because I see him as more FF-valuable, but when I really crunched the numbers -- Jason Sanders has been more accurate (91% to 89%) on FGs under 50 yards and Sanders has more 50+ yard FGs made, and more 40+ yard FGs made. Bass has done well, but with a lot of extra point action. Sanders has better kicking conditions than Bass…that's something in the favor of Bass. Both kickers are good. Surprisingly…Sanders gets the slight nod.
Miami finishes out with a (5-2) win.
O-Line, Kicker, and weapons were so close…but Miami got the nod in every one of them. In reality, as well as this judgment 'game' -- it's gonna be very close between Miami and Buffalo this season for the AFC East…BUT, I would say: If Tua stayed healthy all last season/2022…Miami wins the division. And this Miami team had Buffalo on the ropes in the playoffs at Buffalo with the Dolphins forced to start a 3rd-string/rookie QB.
At full strength, Miami was the better team last year…and we project is the better team going into this year.
Upcoming Matchups (next round):
MIA is in the AFC Final Four
LAC v. KC for the AFC West
BAL v. CIN for AFC North
IND v. JAX for the AFC South
DAL v. PHI for the NFC East
MIN v. DET for the NFC North
TB v. NO for the NFC South
ARI v. SEA for the NFC West
