A new idea I had in order to help me go through the NFL team's rosters and examine all the personnel and coaching changes, etc., one-by-one. I'm going to look at two teams head-to-head in seven key categories (my bias on what is 'key'). The team that gets my vote in each category gets a 'win'…the first team to 4 wins moves on to the next round. Just a quick, hopefully fun, way to take the temperature of each team heading into the 2023 preseason.
The seven categories…it's actually six because one category is so important that it's worth double:
1-2) The quarterbacks comparison…the winner of this gets 2 wins, or if too close to call it could be a 1-1 split.
3) O-Line -- Judging which team has the better O-Line…the most critical aspect of a team after the QB.
4) Cornerbacks -- After O-Line, I think the most critical position is shutdown corners (or not having any).
5) Head Coach/Organization -- A battle of which coaches will get in the way less, to some degree but also an edge given to teams that will attract free agents or be a desired destination in trades…and what teams are filling the stadium for home games, etc. Everything rolled into one judgment call.
6) Offensive Weapons -- Which team has the better, scarier RB-WR-TE group.
7) Kicker -- If it comes down to #7, of course the kicker should make the determination...as the kicker often determines the winner of a 59+ minute war prior with a last second make/miss.
As we lead into each category and tap a winner -- I'm also listing the major add/loss for each team in the offseason so far, just to eyeball it as a list.
Is this a brilliant way to judge teams over another? Who knows! But it struck me as something fun to do while studying each team this preseason, after the majority of offseason moves have been made.
TB major adds: QB Baker Mayfield, DT Gaines, PK McLaughlin, DL Kancey. OG Mauch, DE Diaby
TB major losses: QB Tom Brady, DT Nunez-Roches, CB Bunting, OT Donv. Smith, SAF Edwards, PK Succop, RB Fournette, OG S. Mason
---------------------------
ATL major adds: RB Bijan, OG Bergeron, LB Z. Harrison, SAF Bates, DT Oneymata, LB Elliss, QB Heinicke, DE Campbell, CB Hughes, LB Dupree, WR Hollins, WR S. Miller
ATL major losses: CB Oliver, WR Zaccheaus, LB Evans
QB (2x): I'm losing steam on Baker Mayfield, BUT he is experienced…he has led a team to the playoffs…he did win a Heisman. He's not nothing. Desmond Ridder is a game manager. If you needed one of these QBs to lead a 2-minute drive to try and win a game -- you'd pick Baker. So…so do I, here.
TB quickly leads (2-0).
O-Line: All Falcons here, one of the better O-Lines in the NFL…one of the best run blocking O-Lines in the game. The Bucs are coming off a disastrous 2022 season filled with OL injuries and disappointments and is undergoing an overhaul that might be better than ATL in the end, but I can't give the rebuild an edge over proven good already.
TB's lead is cut in half (2-1).
CBs: Dean-Davis duo vs. Terrell and Okudah duo. Dean-Davis had a better coverage rating in 2022 than either Terrell or Okudah. ATL got Mike Hughes for a slot corner with rookie Clark Phillips, which is an upgrade in the slot, but TB has FFM fave/ace in the hole Zyon McCollum potentially starting at CB this year. I have to give the edge to TB here.
TB extends the lead to (3-1).
HC/Organization: I cannot stand Arthur Smith, but Todd Bowles isn't my favorite either. I think players would rather play for Bowles, free agents if given a choice -- but the Falcons next head coach, current D-C Ryan Nielsen did recruit a ton of defensive free agents over. It's a pick 'em, but lean Bowles for coaching.
As far as organizations go -- Tampa is so attractive as a place to live for the players, and Atlanta isn't bad to dwell…but it's not Tampa. The Bucs have been better run over the past few years from ownership down, so all the edges here go to Tampa.
And thus the Bucs put away ATL (4-1).
Weapons: Rachaad White is the best RB on either team. The TB WRs are better/deeper than ATL's. The Falcons have the ace TE (they don't use). I'll have to lean this to Tampa Bay because they use their stars…ATL has Pitts and London but wants to run every play. The TB weapons make differences…the ATL weapons have a lid on them.
TB extends out to a (5-1) advantage.
Kicker: The Bucs picked up Chase McLaughlin in free agency who is OK. Younghoe Koo is one of the better kickers in the league. Edge ATL.
Tampa Bay wins (5-2) overall but it's really closer than that score/spread between these two.
Upcoming Matchups (next round):
MIA v. BUF for AFC East
LAC v. KC for the AFC West
BAL v. CIN for AFC North
IND v. JAX for the AFC South
DAL v. PHI for the NFC East
MIN v. DET for the NFC North
TB v. ??? for the NFC South
??? v. ??? for the NFC West
