From April 30th:
Finally, the NFL Draft is in the books. All the scouting work for the last several months now leads to a mad dash of interpretation to try and figure out the impact of all that just happened with this talent dump into the league, onto the various rosters.
It would be great to have an instant analysis and have a ton of post-NFL Draft and DRD reports 'next day', but 300+ players (including the UDFAs) just got dropped into the NFL system…and the impact of where these new players just landed and the impact to the existing players on a roster is a major, detailed undertaking. How can 'analysts' take it all in and spit out their 'grades' and 'analysis' in 24-48 hours? They can do that because they know what people want, are used to, is some fast food 3-sentence A-B-C draft grade analysis 'next day' that pats all the teams on the head and makes fanboys feel good about all the magical unicorns their teams just acquired. And the analysts have almost no idea of the real talent (or not) of the rookies, so they are just echoing conventional wisdom/work done by ESPN or the NFL Network. 'Next day' NFL Draft analysis is ChatGPT-esque, robotic mimicry nonsense.
Maybe I'm just slow, working to all hours of the day/night trying to scout players/groups at every position and then analyzing the depth charts of all 32 teams to consider how it could all play out ahead -- but I take my time with each team's draft and impact to the roster, and I include the UDFAs…because I know the UDFAs, and you can't analyze a team's Draft without knowing the UDFAs, which 99.9% of the post-Draft analysis never mentions the UDFAs…every year I wonder why analysts never consider them in draft grade analysis -- but I know why, it's rhetorical. Draft analysis takes time for one person to get their arms around…quick analysis of it all is pretty useless/empty-calories.
I mention this to say -- the post-Draft fallout/interpretation takes me a lot of time…it's a lot of thought, some re-watching of tape, some conversation with sources, and much debate and re-thought on how to process it all. I didn't know who Detroit's #96 pick (Brodric Martin) was -- he didn't even make an 'analytics' cut for me to grade pre-Draft his data was so weak. Friday night, I was scrambling to figure out why the Lions would draft a prospect who was tracking 7th-round/UDFA at the #96 pick. I took time after day two of the draft to go review his case and tape. These are the things that make up the giant process of post-Draft analysis…and I have other players who went early or fell quite late that require a reexamination. Don't get me wrong -- this is my favorite time of the year, the period of study and discovery…but it takes a lot of time to do it justice/to get it right as much as possible.
So, just know, I'm locked in an office all this week doing all the dirty work…the results of which I'll have out as fast as I can.
Here's my general plan for this post-Draft week+ ahead…
-- My primary focus is getting the 1.0 version of the Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings out late Sunday, or first thing Monday morning…like an initial top 25-50 with 10+ commentaries/guidances. And every day this week I will add in 25-50 more players ranked/valued and dozens of commentaries to build a top 200+ ranking board (including IDPs) by the weekend on our way to a top 300+ rookie board for the entire offseason/preseason.
Every day, and every week of the offseason/preseason, I will be updating the board with new info and new research/takes/interpretations.
-- This week, I will be doing a 12-part series on five-round mock DRD drafts from each of the (typical) 12 spots per round. Just to give early guidance on what we're looking at doing in the DRD…AND looking at what THEY are gonna/have been doing in early DRDs. That series will start MON or TUE this week and complete by Friday for the weekend DRD drafters.
-- As I'm integrating the rookies into the system, I'll be adjusting/projecting forward the impact on each team's/player's projections and valuations for Dynasty (top 600) and Best Ball (top 600). This is no small task. How any website, etc., could have a Dynasty top 200-600+ board posted Monday…is criminal, to me.
We have to consider the O-Line impact (via the draft) on the offense and what happened with the opposing defenses on their schedule, etc. I'm pretty sure that's not being done on all the snap reactions to the just completed draft.
I'm not sure how long this will take to update the Dynasty and Best Ball top 600 -- but I hope a first pass is out by the weekend and then we'll keep refining every day/week of the offseason/preseason. It's something I don't want to rush. The more I try to beat a deadline, the more mistakes and risky assumptions I could make…or things I could 'miss'/overlook.
-- Grading the NFL Draft? It's super fun, and my draft grades (as you might know from the past) are quite scientific in approach and it's not all rainbows and puppy dogs on the team's grades. It may take me a week or two to complete my 'grading' of each team for the entire NFL Draft.
A week+ from now, when I publish them, it will seem like a downer/'who cares?' at that point in the process. I get that…but I'm not going to put out garbage for the sake of speed. Draft grades are fun but are my lowest priority on the to-do list -- Fantasy impact and betting for/against teams based on the analysis are my priority.
Draft grades will be out, but it will take a bit of time. I will, however, be doing some overview/snapshot reactions team-by-team each day this week to give some feedback/guidance, as I go through the team-by-team research. Those reports are planned daily this week. More on that when I debut the first piece.
-- The scouting of the draft is not over…not by a long shot. I've gotta scout a few players who were taken by the NFL in the Draft -- but they were players my models didn't even think were top 800 material. Half the time, it means the NFL knows something beyond the surface info (medical reasons a guy had a garbage Pro Day or 2022 season, etc.)…and the other half the time, they're just dumb picks. I gotta go figure out which it was. I also need to dive deep on players who I've wanted to look deeper at but haven't yet…but they landed in a great/interesting place via the draft, so I gotta get down to business (Chase Brown to Cincy, for example).
-- As I get my arms wrapped around each team's draft and its roster impacts -- I will be discussing, pushing the betting concepts around it. We're here to make FF and handicapping money from the NFL Draft, primarily…and secondarily. I'll have initial reactions this week, but it really gets ramped up once the NFL schedules are announced.
-- Special Dynasty player/situation reports will start to publish more and more after the first wave of post-Draft impact studies are complete. I have a bunch of concepts on my mind to discuss/push but needed the draft to come and go to be able to finish. All May-June-July-August they will be hitting.
-- I will be doing video shows most nights throughout the offseason, like we have been pre-Draft. A great way to keep in touch with what's happening and what questions/comments you're interested in…which helps me focus my studies on the most pressing member items.
-- Next week, after processing the post-Draft first wave of data, I start writing the 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Guide. The first pieces of which will publish/be available in the first half of June…and they add-to/increase and update all offseason/preseason. More on that as we get past this post-Draft week.
All that and 9 million other things that will pop up.
Football never sleeps.
There's always money to be made…I'm doing my best to find out where the gold is buried.
