Round one is in the books and the NFL never fails to follow a general script -- 28 of the 31 players selected in the 1st-round were the consensus top 31 players in the last week of mock drafts (according to my tracking). Either every half-baked football website is getting all the inside info or there becomes a media established groupthink and the prospects get talked up/ranked and the NFL follows the lead of the media/fan 'acceptable' prospects to pick and tries to do anything they can not to be seen 'reaching' for a player.
However, there were some reaches and some odd trades and all kinds of other questionable decisions. So, after watching it all…the good and the bad…let me give my first reactions in the 'Best and Worst' of the 2023 NFL Draft day one…
WORST = The Next Day Draft Grades are out…
I don't even look at them because they are so ridiculous.
There are an established top 31 players to take. The NFL generally took those players in the 1st-round…the 'as expected' picks. The media totally buys into the top 31 as the top 31, so they deem your next day win-loss evaluation as what team got a player above its trending/ranked average (thus, a winner) and what teams took players too much ahead of the HOLY rankings (thus, a loser).
Without even looking, I'll bet/assume the day one mainstream winners are:
1) Teams who had two picks and got TWO of these HOLY players…so, Houston, Seattle, and Philly will be deemed winners.
2) Any team who got a player like 5+ picks better than his established ranking…so, Philly again with TWO 'bargains' (not really, we'll get to this in a moment) has to be every mainstream analyst's top winner.
The Patriots with Christian Gonzalez will get some mild 'atta boys', but THEY hate Belichick so it will be mild praise.
The mainstream losers will be:
1) Any team that did the unthinkable…took a player well ahead of their ranking. So, the Lions by virtue of the Gibbs pick will be crushed. The Jets taking Will McDonald will be tapped 'losers' as well.
Today, in the NFL Draft post-analysis, every team gets an A or B or C grade variation in a thing that sees half Ds and Fs results in reality, but the media doesn't want to offend the teams, much less offend the rabid fans...so grading is always kind AND these teams all took established/agreed upon top 31 guys or close to it…so, they were all 'winners' (to the mainstream) in a sense…so they all get a gold star/not a D of F grade from the media.
The whole pre-draft ranking system and post-draft analysis has to be one of the most ridiculous things about the football business…but it's a cottage industry. Everyone loves to talk about and dream about ROOKIES.
WORST = The lust for pass rushers will never be quenched in the NFL!
In a week where the great Chase Young was denied a 5th-year option…
In an NFL where the Jadeveon Clowney story exists…
In a year with a huge/deep class of solid pass rusher talent...
Coming off a free agency littered with capable pass rushers available to buy…
…the #1 position/thing most taken in the 1st-round of the 2023 NFL Draft was, of course, pass rushers!!!
Seven EDGE rushers were selected in the 1st-round. If you pull in the four DTs taken…then over one-third of the 1st-round picks resided on the D-Line and/or defensive pass rush/front pressure.
I know, I know…it's a passing league and you need to disrupt the QBs. Here's a novel idea! Why don't you take the elite cover corners available in this draft instead? The NFL values pass rushers over everything but quarterback, and then I secretly think they love pass rushers more than QBs…so, in a world where everything in our human lives and in any industry is changing and evolving at a rapid pace -- the NFL mindset stays the same: Lust for pass rushers and drafting prospects 'by the book'…
…as they watched Sauce Gardner and Tariq Woolen totally turn around their team's defenses within weeks in 2022.
BEST/WORST = The super-shrewd Arizona Cardinals, of all teams? Maybe…
Here's how the Arizona Cardinals made out in all their trade swap with Houston PLUS their move back up to get to #6…
-- Arizona gets the #6 (Paris Johnson), the #81 (from DET), the #33 (from HOU), and a 1st and 3rd-round pick from Houston in 2024.
-- Arizona dealt away the #3 (Will Anderson), the #105 (to HOU), the #34 (to DET), the #168 (to DET)
The Cardinals get the Paris they wanted all along and if you cancel out/negate the #33/#34 in-out as well as the #81/#105+168 in-out picks…Arizona got their guy plus added 2024 firepower in Houston's first and third-round picks while doing so. On the surface, the Houston trade for Will Anderson is possibly the single worst trade exchange I've ever seen in my 10+ years of being in professional football analysis.
Was it Arizona being super-shrewd under a new GM…or just lucky the Texans are so stupid?
When Arizona butchers their gifted picks next year/2024 after finishing dead last in the NFL in 2023…the question will be answered.
If you want to make sure Arizona is still a terribly run organization, Arizona had to give up their #66 pick to the Eagles (and got #94 and a 2024 5th offset) for tampering with the hiring of Jonathan Gannon…a coach so bad…I think the Eagles might have fired him after the Super Bowl, if not for the Cardinals coming in to save the day.
BEST/WORST = Houston can't help but be dumb, even when they're smart for a moment…
The Texans were likely on the verge of just staying pat at #2 and taking Will Anderson, which would have been a monumental waste of a high pick with elite QBs there for the taking. So, give credit to Houston for taking (arguably) the best QB in the draft and the QB 5x better than Bryce Young. It was a layup, a gift…and Houston took it/didn't butcher it.
However, that exchange with Arizona to get to #3 for Will Anderson and essentially paying a 1st and 3rd-rounder in 2024 to do so -- a horrible value exchange. Anderson is nice/fine, but he's not generational. Had the Texans just stayed put they could've taken any number of pass rushers at #12 or landed elite cover corner Christian Gonzalez…or taken Jahmyr Gibbs, I guess?
The Panthers-Texans-Cardinals entered draft day one with the 1-2-3 overall picks in the draft…it's what they really are -- the three teams vying to be the #1-2-3 worst run teams in the NFL. Stroud may get the Texans out of the basement dwellers teams…to be replaced by Las Vegas.
BEST = The Buffalo Bills get radical…
The elite teams in the NFL, the ones knocking on the door of being in the Super Bowl every year the past 2-3 years, the ones still ready to make another run at it in 2023 are: (1) defending champs Kansas City, (2) should be two-time champs Cincinnati, (3) the constant hard luck 49ers, (4) and the Buffalo Bills. (5) The Eagles are wedging themselves into that discussion now as well.
Of those four (or five) teams just mentioned, the one I feel has started losing momentum at the tippy top, the one most in danger of losing their repeating division crown in 2023 is the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo needed to do something to change their ways and inject a new wrinkle to their team -- and 'mission accomplished' taking a pass game tight end like no other in the league right now (R.I.P. Kyle Pitts...it's not your fault) in Utah's Dalton Kincaid.
I think it's as simple as -- the Bills have been beaten too often by the Chiefs, as they watched Travis Kelce confound them (and everyone) for years, so they went after their own Kelce. That and Kincaid was one of the 10 best players in this draft, our #7 ranked overall for the draft, and one of the few real radical difference makers in this draft…a rare future Hall of Fame hopeful type grab that this draft has to offer. Not just a 'fill a need' guy.
Kincaid is a big step towards retaining AFC East dominance for Buffalo…and puts the Bills in play to have the best draft of 2023, in the end. It's the right way to start this draft for them. We'll see if they capitalize on it further on days two and three.
WORST = History will not look back on this favorably…Detroit moves back to pick #12.
Not that Jahmyr Gibbs is a bad player, but you absolutely cannot take a part-time RB in the top 15…or 30…or 100. The Detroit Lions, standing on the precipice of winning a division title in 2023, the favorites to do just that per Vegas…they were in perfect position to take an elite type player/weapon, a real difference maker. Instead of taking Dalton Kincaid…or Calijah Kancey…or elite cover corner who fell in Christian Gonzalez -- the Lions took a part-time, 199-pound running back who would've gone day three in the draft had he decided to stay at Georgia Tech in 2022, instead of transferring to Alabama.
One of the worst business decisions in the 1st-round in recent history. There's a problem with taking a future bust player in the 1st-round…this is not that. This is just a horrific business decision…a giant waste of the #12 pick power -- from a payroll standpoint, from a general value of part-time RBs, from what they could've taken/lost opportunity.
This was as bad a decision as a team could make, operationally. Makes me lose some faith in GM Brad Holmes…and makes me wonder if Dan Campbell is going to Dan Campbell his way to blowing a division winning team by Dan Campbell-ing it all up. He's likely to do that over time (exacerbate the team with his personality, eventually, and fail/get fired/wear out his welcome)…I just didn't think it would be starting in 2023, when there was such promise coming off 2022.
Honestly, I'm not sure how experienced, highly paid executives for an NFL franchise could do this. Picking a bad player at other positions -- happens all the time. It's the nature of the draft. But knowingly making a horrific business decision like taking a part-time RB #12 overall is completely inexplicable.
I saw analyst Robert Griffin/RG3 praising this pick because of all the inventive ways the Lions can/will use Gibbs. Yeah, right... I liked this show the first time I watched it -- when it was called 'D'Andre Swift'.
WORST = The worst pick in the 1st-round?
There's a lot of approaches one could make in trying to ascertain the WORST pick in the 1st-round…was it a bad value play, or just a bad fit, or a bad talent assessment, or wrong position group (like an RB or SAF) to take in the 1st-round, etc.?
Jahmyr Gibbs is the worst pick in round-one - because of the disastrous business sense (lack thereof) displayed. But I'm thinking more 'worst' from the player usefulness to the team taking them perspective. Gibbs is a BAD business decision but he's handy/useful right away. Will Anderson was bad business on the trade for him, but he's a good enough player to help the team.
I'm thinking, for this 'worst', a player picked to a team that was a contender needing a jolt, an infusion to help take them to the next level…but instead taking a player who won't really matter…a golden opportunity wasted.
I wanted to bestow that honor to the Chargers for wasting a pick on a bad/sketchy WR who doesn't really help them get better -- 'tall' WRs are ancient thinking. They have an assassin at QB…and they needed speed at WR to open things up for him or they could've changed the game as a copycat KC and took Dalton Kincaid and given the Chiefs a taste of their own Kelce medicine. Instead, they take a limited, tall, outside WR.
As much as I want to honor LAC for this award, I have to give it to the NY Jets. They just leveraged all their careers (the execs and coaches) and gave away assets to acquire Aaron Rodgers, and after any team solves the QB issue…they should then absolutely make sure they can protect that asset with O-Line assets. Instead of going ALL THE WAY building 2023 around Rodgers, getting him some protection, the Jets instead add a reach pass rusher (Will McDonald).
The NFL LOVES their pass rushers…they can't help themselves.
BEST = The best pick in the 1st-round?
The contenders are…Stroud at #2, Ricardson at #4, Gonzalez at #17, and Kincaid at #25…the real unique, game-changing (potentially) assets. For as much as I love the Gonzalez and Kincaid moves, especially at their value/pick spots -- you have to have an elite QB, or you don't matter in the NFL. Pick your poison on Stroud or Richardson…'both' is an acceptable answer for best pick in the 1st-round.
BEST = Bill Belichick
He has become a nightmare doing business in free agency, but he is becoming the best drafter in the NFL…or is trying to be. Last year, Belichick took a lot of unconventional picks out of the generally accepted/federally mandated places in the draft you're supposed to take them -- and they were mostly all smart moves. This year, Belichick falls back a little to pick #17 overall and gets a franchise over corner…one of the five or so best players in this draft.
A great start for the fighting Belichicks.
WORST = Ex-Patriots personnel people are THE WORST…
Speaking of Bill Belichick, one of the best, most devious things he does to the NFL is propping up terrible football coaches and personnel people…boosting their value and dispatching them throughout the league as 'coveted' hires -- when really they are going out and poisoning wells around the league.
As Belichick runs his draft and makes his own picks, and doesn't conform to the 'they say' to run his team…we watch guys like Houston GM Nick Caserio make horrible coaching hires and just made an epically bad trade for Will Anderson…and we see Josh McDaniels and his sidekick ex-Pat now GM slowly destroying the Raiders…and now we might be seeing the downfall of Mike Vrabel (not a full Belichickian but he leans his way/spent some time there), and Vrabel had his ex-Pat GM fired last year. All the ex-Patriots things have failed in the past few years or are in process of failing. There is no bright shining star emerging from under Belichick's wing…not Joe Judge or Matt Patricia or Brian Flores or anyone…and none of his ex-players/coaches on analysis and podcasts either.
It's almost like Belichick is doing this on purpose.
…and, yet, the NFL that NEVER learns from mistakes/patterns of things, continues to chase ex-Pat things.
As Belichick falls without Tom Brady, that pattern may be breaking ahead -- but it's not because the NFL recognized it and pivoted. No, they just chase whatever worked last year or two and assume/hope it will work for them. See: the two Eagles coordinators hired as head coaches and prior to that the Bills getting raided last year…and the Rams/ex-McVay hangers on being all the rage before that.
If the Bengals go get their overdue Super Bowl this season…then they will be poached of their coordinators in 2024. And the big wheel keeps on spinning.
WORST = The NFC East powers…
Dallas, needing to make a big move to try and catch up to the Eagles…they take overrated/wildly underproductive DT Mazi Smith, after getting beat to the Dalton Kincaid punch by Buffalo trading right in front of them. No great help to the Dallas advancement cause with Mazi.
Philadelphia, in a position to further try and run away with the NFC East…and the NFC in general (trying to put SF away), took two Georgia players who could both bust hard.
Jalen Carter gives everyone all the signals of a massive headache off-the-field, and he wasn't that great against top opposition on-the-field either -- he could be an epically wasted top 10 pick. Then Nolan Smith is just a situational, somewhat undersized pass rusher who has a place in the NFL…but not worth a 1st-round pick.
So many great, unique assets Philly passed up to keep tapping the Georgia defender 'well'. It all sounds great but ask Green Bay how that looks after their 2022 1st-round. Shopping exclusively at Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State for defenders has been fool's gold more than big paydays.
If you look at the consensus top 10 Dynasty (from a Fantasy perspective) DLs, LBs, and DBs…30 players, the top 10 ADP/ranked from each position group, before this 2023 NFL Draft occurred…you'll find two Ohio State players (both Bosa's), one Georgia player (Roquan), and two 'Bama guys (Minkah + Quinnen). Of those five players from Ga.-Ala.-OSU, two of them were already traded away by their original draft team.
Having two players from any college is the best you'll find among this top 10 times three search…which includes Florida State (Burns, Derwin) and Penn State (Brisker, Parsons).
There is a 'three count' on the lists -- it's 'FCS'/non-D1 schools (Dugger, Chinn, Oluokun)
…but PLEASE NFL…still keep grasping at Alabama and Georgia players all the time.
BEST = The Saints Made Me Happy!
My top over/under win total bet of the year, so far, is the Saints 'under' 9.5. So, I had a rooting interest in them wasting their 1st-round draft pick…and they obliged! Underproductive, but 'quick looking' Bryan Breese was added. Taven Bryan flashbacks abound!
Not a move that makes me worry about my Saints 'under' yet.
WORST = Zay Flowers' 2nd contract in the future…
One of the black holes in the NFL is playing wide receiver for the Ravens in the Lamar Jackson era. Marquise Brown did OK, but not enough to justify how highly he was picked…and they loved him so much they dumped him away last year. Devin Duvernay and Rashod Bateman are very talented -- but have gone into a target-starved death spiral.
Enter Zay Flowers…a great route runner, like Rashod, but now working with a low volume passer and not a QB who mixes well with meticulous route running WRs. This landing spot really kicks Zay's FF value in the gut…and hurts his next contract hopes…like what Rashod and Duvernay are near to experiencing.
BEST = A 2nd/3rd-round day two chock full of talent…
Two of my top 5 for this draft are still available (Levis, Dawand)
Three of my top 10 valued players for this draft are still available (Levis, Dawand, Porter)
Four of my top 15 valued players for this draft are still available (Levis, Dawand, Porter, Byron Young/TENN)
I thought this (above) was an unusual amount, but we had similar patterns last draft.
I had Zyon McCollum and Marcus Jones rated as top 5 overall prospects last year.
I had Jelani Woods #9.
I had Malik Willis and Andrew Booth top 15.
I had George Pickens and Abe Lucas top 20.
All went non-1st-round last year…some lasted until day three. Marcus Jones looks prescient and Zyon McCollum drew some starts last year and is going to be a starting CB of the future for Tampa Bay…or a safety if needed. I could also see McCollum never coming around/getting the chance.
Jelani Woods was the lone freak TE in a terrible class for TEs in 2022. Woods might be the #2-3-4 TE in this 2023 class. But we'll look back over time and see Jelani as a top 30 from the 2022 NFL Draft.
Andrew Booth got hurt and we can't judge it properly yet.
Malik Willis, we have to see where that goes…but it didn't look great in 2022…however, there's still time for him to make the leap. Pickett is starting but we'll see if he's just 'OK' or has an upside. QBs deserve a 'reach'/valuation bump every draft.
Pickens and Lucas were wise top 20 valuations, in hindsight.
My #1-2 last season: Sauce Garner and Trevor Penning. Travon Walker was #16 rated/valued. Today, I'd take Sauce over Travon in two seconds…so would Jacksonville. And I'd take Penning over Walker too, now that I've seen them in the NFL. So, R.C. isn't so crazy after all…not infallible, just better than anyone else at what I do is all.
See you for day two on the live video stream tonight!
