Assumptions:
-- Only one trade (Raiders move up to #3); all other teams draft from their current position
-- Position needs from PFF
-- FanDuel Favorites represent the betting favorite for the underlying draft position, not necessarily the team drafting themselves (i.e. contemplates trades). Only provided for the top 10 picks.
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#1: Carolina Panthers (via CHI): QB Bryce Young (Alabama)
-- Needs: QB, WR, ED
-- FanDuel Favorite: QB Bryce Young (-1400; 93.3% implied probability)
Comments:
Bryce Young was the favorite to go number one overall before the Panthers traded up for this pick. Then C.J. Stroud started to pick up steam which lasted through the combine. Over the past few weeks there have been multiple reports and chatter around the league suggesting that the Panthers are going to take Young. Doesn't matter who you or I think is the best QB, just the information available to us as of today.
Carolina will hope that Young becomes the face of their franchise, and that HC Frank Reich finally has a real solution at QB. Keep in mind that the best coaches will look mortal with bad QB play (see Bill Belichick). Over the past four years with the Colts, Reich had Jacoby Brissett, Phillip Rivers, Carson Wentz, and Matt Ryan as the opening day starting QB.
Carolina's defense has enough firepower to keep them in games. If Reich can help Young become a viable starting QB in this league, Carolina will instantly become the favorite to win the (weak) NFC South and perhaps propel Reich to become a candidate for COTY.
#2: Houston Texans: EDGE Will Anderson Jr. (Alabama)
-- Needs: QB, WR, C, DL
-- FanDuel Favorite: QB Will Levis (+200; 33.3% implied probability)
Comments:
There have been reports indicating that the Texans may not take a QB with this pick. Perhaps this came from Houston's front office to gauge the public perception of passing on a QB. In addition, the Texans are rumored to be interested in SF QB Trey Lance. If the Texans wanted to select a defensive player instead, it wouldn't make sense NOT to trade this pick. When it comes to NFL teams, especially the Texans, it's best not to think logically. For that reason, I think they'll select Will Anderson Jr. from Alabama and hope that Anderson lives up to his hype.
#3: Las Vegas Raiders: QB C.J. Stroud (Ohio State) **Projected Trade w/ Arizona**
-- Needs: QB, OT, DL, DB
-- FanDuel Favorite: QB C.J. Stroud (+250; 28.7% implied probability)
Comments:
High probability this pick gets traded since it's a foregone conclusion that Colts will draft a QB with the next selection and the Texans passed on a QB. The top two FanDuel favorites for the third overall pick are both QBs with a combined implied probability greater than 50%, meaning that oddsmakers are fairly certain that this pick will be traded. Josh McDaniels trades up and grabs his QB of the future in CJ Stroud. Stroud will likely begin the season as the backup QB; however, given LV QB Jimmy Garoppolo's injury history, Stroud should be starting sooner rather than later.
#4: Indianapolis Colts: QB Will Levis (Kentucky)
-- Needs: QB, WR, TE, OT
-- FanDuel Favorite: QB Will Levis (-110; 52.3% implied probability)
Comments:
Colts fans have been patiently waiting for an answer at QB since Andrew Luck abruptly retired. Levis had issues staying healthy in college which usually doesn't translate well for the NFL. However, he played in the toughest conference (SEC) with a not-so-great supporting cast. Gardner Minshew will likely start the season and is a fine bridge QB. Levis gets at least 9 games per year in a dome and will play in a weak division (AFC South).
#5: Seattle Seahawks: QB Anthony Richardson (Florida)
-- Needs: G, C, DL
-- FanDuel Favorite: EDGE Will Anderson (+250; 28.6% implied probability)
Comments:
As much as Seattle could've used the help on the defensive live, I don't think they'll pass on a chance to take Anthony Richardson. The Seahawks know that it's unlikely they'll be picking this high in the coming years; the organization may view this as their shot to get a long-term solution at QB.
SEA QB Geno Smith will be the perfect mentor for Richardson and give him time he needs to develop. Richardson's athletic abilities blew scouts away at the combine and his Pro Day. If he's developed correctly, Richardson's potential is limitless. He had accuracy issues in college, but keep in mind that his supporting cast in college didn't really do him any favors and the conference he played in (SEC) is littered with NFL players.
#6: Detroit Lions: CB Devon Witherspoon (Illinois)
-- Needs: WR, TE, DL
-- FanDuel Favorite: CB Devon Witherspoon (-135; 57.4% implied probability)
Comments:
Do I think that Devon Witherspoon is the best CB in this draft? No, not really, but I can't ignore the odds here. There is no question that Detroit's passing defense was horrendous in 2022. Detroit fans will hope that Witherspoon can become what recently traded CB Jeff Okudah failed to be for the Lions, a shutdown corner.
He will have his hands full in his own division as he'll draw matchups against Min WR Justin Jefferson, GB WR Christian Watson, and CHI WR D.J. Moore. Not too worried about the last player, the other two will force Witherspoon to get up to speed quickly though.
#7: Arizona Cardinals: CB Christian Gonzalez (Oregon) **Projected Trade w/ Las Vegas**
-- Needs: G, C, DL, CB
-- FanDuel Favorite: CB Christian Gonzalez (+250; 28.6% implied probability)
Comments:
Arizona lost their top CB Byron Murphy this past offseason. Murphy doesn't generate a lot of buzz around the league; however, FFM subscribers know that he shuts down top WRs with ease. Hardcore DFS players stayed away from WRs matching up with Murphy on a weekly basis. The Cardinals will look to fill that void with Christian Gonzalez, who is my favorite corner in this year's draft and has been drawing comps to Pat Surtain II. I think Cardinals fans will be pleased if Gonzalez lives up to that comparison, especially considering the extra draft capital they pocketed from the projected trade with the Raiders.
#8: Atlanta Falcons: RB Bijan Robinson (Texas)
-- Needs: QB, WR, ED
-- FanDuel Favorite: RB Bijan Robinson (+240; 29.4% implied probability)
Comments:
Again, I wouldn't try to think logically when projecting this pick. Did Tyler Allgeier look great last year? Absolutely. Does it make sense to burn high draft picks on running backs in 2023, especially with a cheap alternative on your roster? Absolutely not. Will that stop GM Terry Fontenot and HC Arthur Smith from making this pick? No way.
It's no secret that the Falcons 2023 offense will be centered around the rushing attack. Arthur Smith will hope that Bijan Robinson becomes his version of Derrick Henry. With this pick, the Falcons last three first round picks have been TE Kyle Pitts, WR Drake London, and now RB Bijan Robinson.
#9: Chicago: OT Paris Johnson Jr. (Ohio State)
-- Needs: OT, C, DL, CB
-- FanDuel Favorite: DL Jalen Carter / OT Darnell Wright (+300; 25% implied
probabilities)
Comments:
Not sure why Darnell Wright is favorited to go over Skoronski and Paris Johnson Jr. I'll choose to deviate from the odds here and go with Johnson. This pick is a no-brainer for the Bears as their 2022 OL was one of the worst in the league. QB Justin Fields will be stoked that he'll be protected by his fellow Buckeye alum for years to come.
#10: Philadelphia: DL Jalen Carter (Georgia)
-- Needs: WR, G, C, DL, S
-- FanDuel Favorite: Peter Skoronski (+210; 32.3%)
Comments:
The Eagles end Carter's slide and make him a top 10 pick. He'll have big shoes to fill with Javon Hargrave departing in FA. Philadelphia's defensive line will now consist of two Bulldogs in the middle. Eagles' fans will hope that Carter and DL Jordan Davis will wreak havoc for years to come.
#11: Titans: OT Peter Skoronski (Northwestern)
-- Needs: WR, OT
Comments:
Titans released long-time tackle Taylor Lewan this offseason. I suspect that they'll draft Skoronski to take over Lewan's old spot or shift him over to guard. They could also go WR with this selection as well.
#12: Texans: EDGE Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech)
-- Needs: QB, WR, C, DL
Comments:
The Texans' grab the consensus top two edge rushers in this year's draft. They'll wait to grab a QB with a day 2 selection or trade for SF QB Trey Lance.
#13: Jets: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State)
-- Needs: WR, OT
Comments:
If Aaron Rodgers gets traded to the Jets, he'll have two Buckeyes to throw to on the outside: Garrett Wilson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Jets offense now has gained some serious firepower with the last two drafts.
#14: Patriots: Edge Lukas Van Ness (Iowa)
-- Needs: QB, OT, Edge
Comments:
The Patriots pick up Lukas Van Ness to help bolster their defensive line. Their pass rush win rate in 2022 was amongst the bottom of the league. They'll need all the pass rush help they can get in a division with Josh Allen and potentially Aaron Rodgers.
#15: Packers: TE Dalton Kincaid (Utah)
-- Needs: QB, OT, Edge
Comments:
Packers' front office will do everything in their power to be right with their Jordan Love draft selection. Dalton Kincaid will be able to contribute from day 1, and all of a sudden, the Packers offensive playmakers look scary. If Jordan Love can take another step this year, the Packers may be able to surprise some people and steal the NFC North.
#16: Commanders: QB Hendon Hooker (Tennessee)
-- Needs: QB, G, C, LB
Comments:
This pick will be the 'reach' of the draft.
There is a lot of buzz that Hooker will be a first-round selection next week. I bet you the Commanders will do everything in their power to trade up for one of the top four QBs but won't have the draft capital to do so, especially given the volume of QB needy teams in the top 10. Unfortunately for the Commanders, this pick may actually end up worse for them than QB Dwayne Haskins.
#17: Steelers: OT Darnell Wright (Tennessee)
-- Needs: OT, LB, CB
Comments:
Two Volunteers go in back-to-back selections. Pittsburgh takes Wright with this pick and with the hope that he can protect second year QB Kenny Pickett for years to come.
#18: Detroit: DL Calijah Kancey (Pittsburgh)
-- Needs: WR, TE, DL
Comments:
When all is said and done, Kancey might end up being the best DL taken in this draft. Yes, you read that right, better than Jalen Carter. There were already some pre-draft concerns about Carter's abilities before his legal troubles; he most likely won't be able to play all three downs and looked out of shape during his own Pro day. I do think Carter's ceiling is higher than Kancey's but his floor is MUCH lower.
I'm not so sure Kancey falls down to 19 come draft day; however, if he's there Detroit will be jumping out of their seat to draft him. Detroit makes some serious defensive investments with their top two picks.
#19: Buccaneers: OT Broderick Jones (Georgia)
-- Needs: QB, TE, OT, DL, S
Comments:
Tampa Bay will begin rebuilding their post-Brady franchise. They'll start off by trying to replace long time LT Donovan Smith with a younger/cheaper option in Broderick Jones.
#20: Seahawks: Joey Porter Jr. (Penn State)
-- Needs: G, C, DL
Comments:
If Joey Porter Jr. falls to #20, the Seahawks will be jumping with joy to take him. CB Tariq Woolen and Porter will make up a dangerous CB duo along with SS Jamaal Adams over the top. This could be the beginning of the Legion of Boom version 2.0.
#21: Chargers: WR Quentin Johnston (TCU)
-- Needs: WR, LB, CB
Comments:
The Chargers end Johnston's slide at #21. WR Mike Williams is injury prone and WR Keenan Allen is falling out of his prime. Johnston will be able to learn from these two veterans and be in a position to take over for one (or both) in the near future.
#22: Ravens: WR Jordan Addison (USC)
-- Needs: WR, ED, CB
Comments:
The Ravens haven't had a true number one wide receiver since the early
2010s with Anquan Boldin. Newly signed WR Odell Beckham Jr. could fill that void
and be a mentor for Addison and Baltimore's other WRs. The bigger question here is
who will be throwing these receivers the ball?
#23: Vikings: EDGE Myles Murphy (Clemson)
-- Needs: WR, DL, LB, CB
Comments:
Vikings grab Myles Murphy to help revamp one of the worst defenses in the league. Although the Vikings secondary was horrendous last season, their pass rush win rate ranked #27. Newly acquired CB Byron Murphy will be an upgrade over CB Patrick Peterson who joined the Steelers. The Vikings will most likely spend a day 2 pick to address their secondary issues.
#24: Jaguars: EDGE Nolan Smith (Georgia)
-- Needs: G, C, ED, DB
Comments:
The Jaguars exceeded expectations last year and gave the eventual SB champion Chiefs a run for their money in the Divisional Round. Had their defense been stouter, perhaps they could've really taken advantage of a hobbled Mahomes last year. Jaguars make this selection and hope their pair of Georgia defenders (Travon Walker taken first overall last year) bolster their pass rush.
#25: Giants: S Brian Branch (Alabama)
-- Needs: WR, C, LB, S
Comments:
Giants could easily take a WR here. Instead, they'll grab Branch and hope that he can help slowdown the Eagles, Cowboys, and Commanders pass catchers next season.
#26: Cowboys: DL Bryan Bresee (Clemson)
-- Needs: RB, DL, LB
Comments:
Bresee will be surrounded by great pass rushers in Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence. The Cowboys will hope that Bresee can take away some attention from the other defensive linemen.
#27: Bills: CB Deonte Banks (Maryland)
-- Needs: DB, LB, CB
Comments:
The Bills will need high-end CB output when going up against the top teams in the AFC. If CB Tre'Davious White regains his pre-injury form, Banks and White could be a dangerous tandem.
#28: Bengals: TE Darnell Washington (Georgia)
-- Needs: TE, DL, DB
Comments:
If the Bengals draft Washington, go load up on Cincinnati futures the next day. Their pass catching group is already elite, having a 6'7 TE with a 4.64 40-time is going to make this unit even more dangerous. He can be what we all wanted TE Jelani Woods to become last year. Unlike Jelani, he'll have a capable HC, elite QB and stud WRs to take away the defense's attention. Defensive coordinators are going to lose sleep trying to figure out how to cover Chase, Higgins and Washington.
#29: Saints: EDGE Will McDonald IV (Iowa State)
-- Needs: G, C, DL, S
Comments:
Saints had a major exodus on defense due to salary cap issues stemming from the Drew Brees era. Hard to blame them, go all in when you have "the guy" at QB; however, the effects from those years will still be felt for years to come. Saints fans will hope that Will McDonald IV becomes a building block for their future defensive units.
#30: Eagles: G Torrence O'Cyrus (Florida)
-- Needs: WR, G, C, DL, S
Comments:
Torrence O'Cyrus is best the interior OL in this year's draft. He has a good chance to become a first-year starter and protect QB Jalen Hurts.
#31: Chiefs: WR Jalin Hyatt (Tennessee)
-- Needs: WR, DL
Comments:
The Chiefs will try to bolster their receiving corps with Jalin Hyatt. If Hyatt pans out, this could help draw attention away from Travis Kelce and provide Patrick Mahomes two consistent pass catching options.
