2022 Week 3: Jaguars 38, Chargers 10 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
*Week 3 seems like five lifetimes ago. Let's see what we were thinking after Week 3's outcome with these two teams.
REPRINT FROM WEEK 3:
My view going into this game was all wrong…
I saw the Chargers as a top 10 team because they have a great QB and very good O-Line and a top 5 defense. A team that had KC down and lost, so an angry team at home with 10 days to prep and rest.
vs.
The lucky Jaguars who have a below average QB and a young, hopeful but inexperienced defense traveling west coming off a big win...ripe for a loss.
Easy pick with the Chargers, right?
They only lost by 28.
What this really was…
The ever-disappointing Chargers with a great QB that are (2-5) in their last 7 games and (6-9) in their last 15 games, with what we can only surmise is a terrible head coach, and missing five of their best 10 players and their single best player playing with cracked ribs.
vs.
The lucky Jaguars who have a below average QB and a young, hopeful but inexperienced defense traveling west coming off a big win...ripe for a loss…ONE with a very solid, smart head coach who carved up Brandon Staley for lunch and dinner.
I'm done with the Brandon Staley Chargers as 'a top thing'. Good-to-great defense at full strength (which won't be for 2-5 more weeks). Great QB who will put up numbers. But they find ways to lose. They are a .500 team in reality, but a division winner with a different/better coaching. They have an easy schedule ahead which should get them back on track…but that will only hide the underlying issues.
I'm moving to neutral on the Jags. The defense is inspired. The O-Line is decent. James Robinson is back. Trevor is running the Baby Thrown Offense (BTO) really well. With the way the AFC South is going…they aren't dead for a playoff run but I assume teams will adjust to this new offense and they'll stumble about the time Indy and Tennessee get going.
This game was hard fought for a half, LAC the stronger team early…but victim of a bad tipped pass turnover in their own red zone on top of some other sloppiness. But a 3rd-quarter, 4th & 1 short run turned 50-yard TD by JAX was the straw that broke LAC's back/will.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Despite the cracked rib, Justin Herbert (25-45 for 297 yards, 1 TD/1 INT). He did pick up a chunk of yardage late in garbage time. His INT was a bobbled pass up into the air falling into a DB's hands. He looked fine. No real issues except a lack of time with his missing center and tackle, but Herbert is amazing hanging in the pocket…but he didn't do that as much here to protect his rib…so there were a bit more hurried passes and missed targets than usual but still not bad considering.
He'll get better and stay good for FF once healed up and when he gets Keenan Allen back. The schedule for the next five games is pretty favorable.
His only real risk is taking a bad shot to the ribs and having more damage done. Make sure you got QB insurance.
-- I really watched this game tape intently to look extra hard at Trevor Lawrence (28-39 for 262 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT). Is he making a turn? He's working that short, quick throw game…a smart game manager game. The whole time, I was thinking: man…this looks like what Kansas City is trying to do…that West Coast-ish thing to get the ball out quick and minimize decisions and turnovers. Then I remembered, Doug Pederson is from the Andy Reid tree. They run basically the same playbook desire.
It's smart for Pederson to protect Lawrence from having to make real big boy decisions…like he did for Wentz early on. But when the situation is not in the Jags' favor, and when Lawrence needed to step up early on in this game -- he really didn't. The Jags had scoring drives on their final 4 drives of the first half and some of them in prime position, and they settled for 3 field goals.
The game fell apart in the 2nd-half and the LAC defense checked out, and the Jags took advantage. That's a good step for Lawrence. Safe passing and good defense…the Jags can win games that way. They can't come from behind or challenge in the playoffs, but they can get to the playoffs in a weak AFC South if the Titans or Colts stumble.
It's a good step forward for Trevor…he's 'like Tua' now, but with lesser weapons to throw to.
-- Well, I know a number of you got a decent trade exchange 'selling high' on Mike Williams (1-15-1/6) last week, as recommended, coming off his big night Week 2…a performance he couldn't follow up here (to no surprise). In their time of need, with Keenan out and needing a WR to step up…Williams caught one of 6 targets…because he's never open, everything is a contested miracle catch it seems…as was his one catch for a perfectly timed, 1-in-100 throw/catch right past the defender that was all over Williams for a TD.
Josh Palmer (6-99-0/9) stepped up, kinda. A nice stat line but really Palmer has little else to work with. Palmer didn't do anything amazing but 'be present' and catch the ball.
-- With the short, quick passing game…and a defeated defense just letting things happen to keep the ball in front of them…Zay Jones (10-85-1/11) had a big game because there was early LAC focus on taking out Christian Kirk (6-72-1/9)…but later on when LAC rolled over, Kirk started getting his.
I never thought it would come to pass but this passing game is working for Zay-Kirk. Everything in 2022 is upside down in my world. The Jags are better than the Chargers. Trevor is producing more than Herbert. Maybe I need to retire.
Nahhh. We press on.
-- Last week Evan Engram (1-9-0/3) had a nice FF-week (7-46-0/8n in Week 2)…this week not so much. His targets seem to ebb & flow on-and-off with Zay Jones somewhat…but that's just an early theory. His big game came, smartly (by the coaches), against Indy Week 2…which is one of the worst teams in the league dealing with the TE. He'll get them again Week 6…but there's really nothing special going on here. He did catch a pass near/at the goal line but no TD.
-- James Robinson (17-100-1, 3-16-0/3) still looks like the main RB for this suddenly good Jacksonville team…and if their defense is good, and they're gonna win some games, the run game is going to be FF-valuable. Doug Pederson is using Robinson-Etienne perfectly (Etienne as a relief and hurry up offense back)…kudos to Pederson for not getting suckered into the Etienne draft stock.
The early leader for Coach of the Year 2022 is Doug Pederson.
-- Austin Ekeler (4-5-0, 8-48-0/8) scored 20 TDs last season. He has scored zero, so far, this season. He's also averaged a whopping 2.5 yards per carry this year with no single game above 2.8 ypc. A disaster season, so far, semi-propped up by the heavy pass targets (7.3 targets per game, 7.0 catches). He's essentially a slot WR playing RB.
Are you terrible at Fantasy Football because you took Ekeler top 5 in a PPR redraft? Who saw this coming? Can it get better with the O-Line in tatters?
All I can say is: NEVER AGAIN with 1st-round RBs in a redraft, not even going to entertain it no matter how strong the pull. Never again.
-- What to do now with the Chargers-DST? They just got humiliated by the Jaguars…nearly an unpardonable sin. Joey Bosa will miss weeks. J.C. Jackson can't get right. Last week, I called the LAC-DST 'great'…now I'm talking about 'bad things'. What do we do?
Well, I think the Joey Bosa thing is minimal. He can be replaced and it not be that a big deal if everything else is intact. You might see DE Chris Rumph (2 tackles, 1 PD) come in and make a name for himself. J.C. Jackson is the key between LAC-DST as an A or B…or B+ or B-, or wherever you want to grade them.
The thing with the LAC-DST is, it's a potential 'A' grade defense. The best defenses my eyes see right now are (with 'grades'):
A = Philly
B+ = Buffalo (all their injuries took them down from A)
B+ = LA Chargers (and falling on JCJ, Bosa, and O-Line news/movements…and Staley losing control)
B+ = Green Bay (and rising)
B = Tampa Bay
So, if the LAC-DST is a solid 'B' unit, the thing I was chasing all along was them being an 'A' (but 'B' is workable enough) but that good/great unit connected to a great Weeks 3-10 schedule. The next four weeks they have HOU-CLE-DEN-SEA…the LAC-DST will be a top 5 DST play each week in those matchups. How high/low they go on the DST1 scale revolves around J.C. Jackson…I want to see a bunch of 'FP' (full practices) on him to get more excited.
At full strength, you can use this DST all the way through the rest of the season. This Week 3 game was a bit of an outlier…turnovers setting up scores, a 4th & 1 turned 50-yard TD run…it was a fluky game that LAC quit on but early on the LAC-DST was carrying the team/slamming the door on the fluky setups. LAC's players 'quitting' on this coach, in general, is my biggest fear -- but they should win 5 or 6 of their next 6 games, worst case four of 6 and be back in the playoff hunt.
If LAC loses to Houston this week, then we have major problems with this team/coaching staff and we're gonna want to run. Isn't Fantasy fun?
-- Is the Jacksonville-DST real? Well, they shutout Indy Week 2. They just held LAC down to 10 pts here. You can't dismiss them anymore, for sure. They also gave up 28 to Washington Week 1, but that may be written off to 'debut/Wk1'. I'm more focused on what they are doing now…and what they are doing now looks really good.
The Jags defense leads the league in interceptions. Only six defenses have more picks than TD passes allowed this season…JAX is one of them. They lead the league in PDs (26), way ahead of the next team…a good sign the corners are improved. Middle of the pack in sacks, but top 10 in QB hits.
Week 4 will be a huge test -- the Eagles, at Philly. I expect they will falter some. If they control Philly, then this DST will be the dream DST off waivers for many Week 5. Even if they get smacked by Philly, that's not a crime…and they are still improving rapidly.
It's Week 5+ that has my attention…HOU, IND, NYG, DEN is not a bad 4-week run Weeks 5-9. It will be a gamble play Week 5 if they get wacked by Philly, but if they halt Philly in some way…this will be the DST everyone wants Week 5.
Snap Counts of Interest:
57 = Palmer
55 = MK Williams
45 = DeAndre Carter
34 = Ekeler
14 = Michel
13 = J Kelley
44 = JRob
33 = Etienne
03 = J Hasty
