2022 Week 18: Broncos 31, Chargers 28 (Dynasty/Fantasy Game Report)
By virtue of the Ravens losing earlier, the Chargers had absolutely no reason to try and win this game. They locked up the #5 seed before this kickoff and that was that…but they still pushed their starters out there for a half+ and put them at risk for no reason. I guess to stay in rhythm?
Well, nice rhythm…a terrible team (Denver) played toe-to-toe with LAC, and for good measure Mike Williams got hurt early on and is very questionable for the wild card game this week. So smart. Such rhythm!!
Playoff previews and ATS picks tonight (9pmET) on a live (and then on-demand) Video show and a Friday report out of all picks ATS and props and FF, etc. You’ll see what I think of the Chargers playoff hopes over the next 48 hours.
Denver played to win. The new interim coach had them playing as hard as they have all season, and despite a totally broken O-Line with most of its starters out/on IR…Denver played even with LAC for the first half, then just took control in the 2nd-half.
Who will the new Denver head coach be? Who knows? This is not a coveted job given fears about Russ’s talent level and payroll…and worries over the GM.
This Denver situation is ripe for a veteran head coach, like a former HC now coordinator, to come in and try and give this franchise some credibility/stability via a ‘trusted name’ (trusted now, but probably not 1-2-3 years ago) and that new coach get a lot of power over the roster and picks in his contract and render the weak GM George Paton near useless…and this weak GM (weak because of the 2022 disaster) will agree because he just wants to get brownie points with the new owners and get the media off his back in hopes to survive another year employed as the GM. Dan Quinn and Jim Caldwell have the early lead…in my guessing game.
There’s no way Denver hires a first-time coach again after the 2022 debacle with Nate Hackett. And Sean Payton and Jim Harbaugh are only using the Broncos to leverage into other/better things. They could land Harbaugh with enough money offered and firing the current GM and letting Harbaugh pick his guy/GM…the GM will try to block that with all his might.
Denver is in a bad spot to hire a great coach for a reasonable price -- because keeping their current GM, who is totally on the ropes and just trying to survive all this mess, is a speed bump in the process…as is Russell Wilson, and all the lost draft picks it took to get him.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Justin Herbert (25-37 for 273 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT)…the franchise…the one thing that could help LAC make a run in the playoffs -- he played like 3+ quarters of this game. I have no idea why. He looked fine but something is still not totally right with him in this offense.
We’ve all seen him be great…as good a QB as there is in the league at times, but then it’s like LAC puts a restrictor plate on him or something and they make him a game manager when he should be a swashbuckling QB like Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes. One of the reasons I will bet against LAC in the playoffs…the way the coaching staff ruins Herbert’s gifts week-after-week. And the staff thinks they’re golden/geniuses because they’re winning. Well, they didn’t win here…when they tried to…against one of the worst teams in the league.
-- Herbert is not spreading the ball around much at all…everything is to Keenan Allen (8-102-2/11). In his last 7 games, Allen has averaged: 7.9 rec., 83.0 yards, and 0.57 TDs per game. From Week 12 to 18, Allen was the #2 PPR WR in Fantasy in PPG…only behind Justin Jefferson. He’ll be nearly 32 years old next season…that’s right about the spot these WRs start to fade off a little. We’ll see if Keenan breaks the trend…but these athletes are in such supreme condition with the best alternative physical enhancements...who knows what 'old' is anymore for a WR?
Mike Williams (4-32-0/5) was starring while Keenan missed most of the 1st-half of the 2022 season, but he gets mostly ghosted when Keenan is back.
Josh Palmer (4-39-0/6) gets a bump for the wild card game if Big Mike can’t go.
-- Donald Parham (2-31-0/2) looks terrific, like a potential dominant star…but LAC treats him like a 2nd-class citizen all the time. He could help make the difference this week against Jacksonville, but I say/think it all the time and it never happens. Parham could be Jelani Woods-like…but, sadly, gets treated like Jelani by his coaching staff…a bit player/backup.
-- Is Russell Wilson (13-24 for 283 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) done…no longer a QB1 type asset anymore? We’ll be tackling that issue this offseason. It seems weird that a QB would go from very good to terrible, while still at a relatively young football age. I mean, his head coach did get fired before the end of his first year…and not because he was a coaching or planning genius. It may not all be a Russ issue.
Taking on the most sacks in a season in his career (55) and dealing with high amounts of pass rush pressure with a broken, battered, IR’d O-Line can’t have helped.
I don’t think he’s done…but how can you bet anything on him? I wouldn’t trade him at his low, if you have him on a deep Dynasty roster if it doesn’t really cost you anything to hold. Let’s see who his new coach is to help figure out how to value him ahead after this 2022 disaster.
-- It also doesn’t help Russ that Courtland Sutton (3-33-1/7) is a weak #1 WR…as we wrote about at length this past offseason. Denver has a million things to do…upgrading their WRs should be one of them -- but they won’t…they can’t because they have a terrible/upside down contract on Sutton for 2023…and they are gonna stick by Jerry Jeudy no matter what. Russ won’t/can’t get WR upgrades until 2024 at the earliest.
-- Albert Okwuegbunam (0-0-0/1) had a promising revival game Week 17, but he got totally ignored here. He should be traded this offseason, but likely he’ll just linger on this roster as a backup for one more year then hit free agency in a very weakened state for free agent value…but there are teams that will be interested in his movement skills and possible unfair burial in Denver his entire career.
-- How old is ‘old’ at RB? Like we just riffed on a bit (above)…who knows about ‘too old’ in the NFL anymore? Latavius Murray (15-103-1, 1-15-0/1) wasn’t signed anywhere in the preseason. Got onto the Saints practice squad a few weeks in. Got forced into a game for them due to injury situations and was solid. Then was stolen by Denver off the Saints practice squad when Javonte went down…and the nearly 33-year-old RB had a fine run behind one of the worst O-Lines and offenses in the league.
He'll likely be that journeyman/emergency fill-in somewhere in 2023…at age 33, closer to 34.
-- 6th-round 2022 rookie Tyler Badie (1-0-0, 1-24-1/1) was a steal off the Ravens practice squad a few weeks ago. His first NFL touch, a screen pass turned 24-yard TD.
Badie was draft pick worthy as a nifty, tough runner for his size (5’9”/195) at Missouri -- but really desired/drafted for his passing game skills, specifically his screen pass ability. Apropos that his first TD was a screen pass TD.
Badie is worth keeping an eye on as a PPR thing for FF into the future. He was highly productive in college for a smaller RB prospect -- 1,604 rushing yards, 6.0 ypc in the SEC at 5’8”/194…54 catches in 12 games for another 330 yards…1,900+ total yards and 18 total TDs as a senior in the SEC on a not-so-great team.
-- Two IDP notes from Denver…
2022 UDFA rookie that I personally (scouting wise) LOVE, CB Ja’Quan McMillian (7 tackles) got his first activation of 2022 this game, and it was his first start…and he was pretty good. He was feisty and energized and made a couple nice coverage plays. Keenan Allen turned him inside out a few times, but mostly McMillian handled himself well for a rookie debut. He’s got a future, I believe, as a tough/sticky slot corner.
2022 4th-round rookie DT Eyioma Uwazurike (4 tackles) is a prospect I thought was decent in pre-Draft scouting…and one FFM’s Ross Jacobs loves! I watched him in detail on several plays here -- not great. He looks like he’s added 10-30 pounds to be like a nose tackle size…at least, he moves like a (slow) nose tackle. No spark or flashes here…only concerns/disinterest from me on this tape.
Snap Counts of Interest:
39 = Latavius
24 = Edmonds
09 = Badie
29 = Albert O
25 = Tomlinson
23 = Beck
22 = Saubert
35 = Parham
30 = Everett
23 = McKitty
