2022 Week 18: Falcons 30, Bucs 17 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
For some reason, the Buccaneers played a lot of starters the 1st-half of this game…a totally meaningless game. There was a lot of ‘keeping the continuity’ talk…the Bucs wanting to build more connection in their floundering passing game of 2022 season going into the playoffs.
Well, Mike Evans sat out. Deven Thompkins was the top target. The main RBs didn’t play much. How did this help continuity? It looked like the same Bucs passing game as all 2022…Tom Brady under pressure and throwing fast to avoid getting touched but when he had time or just did quick hitters, he completed short passes just fine -- all against one of the worst defenses and worst pass rushing defenses in the NFL, playing some of their backups…and still the Bucs passing game looked as disconnected as usual for 2022.
The Bucs starters scuffled with the Falcons for a half, played even with the Falcons on the scoreboard, taking the lead right before the half, then when Tampa went to their backups (and Atlanta stuck with their offensive starters) they lost the lead in the 2nd-half and then lost the game. I’m not sure what Tampa Bay accomplished here besides putting Brady at some risk. This wobbly TB offense faces an up-and-down Dallas defense in the playoffs…and it will depend upon what Dallas D shows up. Dallas could crush the Tampa offense…or be gaffe filled and allow Brady to pick them apart short all game and never adjust to it.
The Falcons win here to finish (7-10)…tied for second or last place in the NFC South, whichever way you want to look at it. Technically, they were last in the division via tiebreakers. Atlanta didn’t really improve in year two of the Arthur Smith regime…just more of the same -- a better run game, a fledgling passing game, and a bottom tier defense. I don’t see how this team gets any better year three. The best thing they have going for them is the weak division, as we know the rosters now, which is the worst in the NFL projected (by me) for 2023. Ridder v. Winston? v. Corral? v. Gabbert? In this division? Maybe Atlanta will be a playoff team after all! A lot of changes are coming via free agency and the draft (and coaching staffs), obviously, so really it’s too early to call but this looks likely to be a very weak division again in 2023.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- There was a play in this game, a forgettable one…that I didn’t forget. And it’s important to share.
Sometime in the 1st-quarter, Tom Brady (13-17 for 84 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) dropped back to pass…the Atlanta D-Line made a surge, not a great surge but they were pushing the TB O-Line back some, and Brady felt the heat like he was about to be decapitated…but really he had several feet/yards of free space around him…but Brady anxiously threw the ball deep and as he did he also quickly/nervously turned his body away from the rush to show his back to it…only no one was even within reach of him, there was no one free/unblocked coming at him. He was pretty safe…but he acted like he was about to die, so he threw it quick, cowered and turned all at the same time, and the pass went way past the target. It was jarring to see.
This is the Tom Brady problem in 2022. The Matt Ryan disease…the Eli Manning final two seasons (too long, hanging on) disease is setting in -- Brady’s top priority (more and more) with each drop back is not to get hit. And if he thinks he is going to possibly be hit, he just throws it somewhere deep hoping it lands (thus the issue with Mike Evans this season), or checking down, just to get the hot potato/ball out of his hands before trouble heads his way.
Brady is starting to show signs of ‘the end’. It’s not fully here, but we’re beginning to walk down the path like Matt Ryan started to in 2021 and then melted down into 2022. Older QBs who are overly sensitive to pressure. Super clean pocket…they’re still savvy/good QBs. Anything close to a muddy pocket is their nightmare. Brady is starting to see muddy when it’s not really muddy. He has a bad O-Line (due to injury) and it’s getting to be in his head. That’s why I am betting against Brady in the game vs. Dallas/in the playoffs -- the reason they Bucs offense (and his connection with Evans) has looked so bad this season is because Brady is preoccupied with not getting hit and he’s flinging too many passes that are prayers hoping to land/just ditching the ball. The old Brady stood tall and shuffled as needed in a muddy pocket. Those days are ending.
…and Dallas can provide a high pressure front that really may rattle him. If they don’t, Brady will chip away at them to some degree…but the trend has been this pass game under pressure and struggling mightily. Most games, this TB offense hasn’t worked…a bottom 10 scoring team in the NFL.
-- After Brady played 1.5+ quarters of useless ball with mostly ‘not his receivers’, then Blaine Gabbert (6-8 for 29 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) came in and injected a little life into the offense and Tampa took the lead before the half.
After Gabbert played some into the 3rd-quarter, the Bucs went to 2021 2nd-round rookie Kyle Trask (3-9 for 23 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) to finish the game…and it was probably the single worst QB performance I’ve seen in the 2022 season.
Trask is nowhere near ready. He has/had a chance to be in the competition for the Bucs starting job in 2023, once Brady leaves, but it looks more like he’ll be cut than have any chance to start.
-- ‘Getting valuable reps for the passing game to stay in the groove’ talk by Tampa ahead of this game is translated to: Get never-used-on-offense UDFA WR Deven Thompkins (1-17-0, 4-25-0/9) a prominent role and make him the highest targeted WR in the game. Will Thompkins even play an offensive snap in their wild card playoff game?
That nonsense aside, Thompkins is a pretty decent little weapon WR…a bubble screen, jet sweep, deep ball speedster that could help this offense in the playoff game with a homerun touch…but he likely will not see a touch or snap in the wild card game. They haven’t really developed him up to this point with the 1st-team…until this game, where he leads the way out of nowhere.
Thompkins looked like a legit speedster prospect/player in the preseason…a small WR with brilliant/swift feet off the snap and a return man game/feel (and he has been their return man the past 5 games). He’s small and raw but very quick/fast. He’s what they hoped Jaelon Darden was gonna be, but Thompkins came up off the practice squad and took over the return game.
There is a future for Thompkins, but it will be more of a random #3/#4 WR who sees a few targets and a jet sweep and otherwise focuses on the return game. He’ll need an injury to a starter to propel him to have a real chance in the NFL.
Good enough showing here to move him up a touch on our valuation rankings on the Dynasty Stash reports.
-- The Fournette-White combo played a few snaps at RB this game, then they turned it over to Ke’Shawn Vaughn (8-26-0, 2-8-0/2), who looked like he always does to me -- he has a spring in his step, has quickness for the position (not elite, but plausible) but lacks vision and avoidance of tackles, so he can look sloppy and doesn’t create things as you’d like from a frontline NFL RB (thus he’s been four years a bench player).
Gio Bernard (7-28-0, 2-0-0/2) came in about the same time as well and mixed in-and-out with Vaughn. Gio can still play. He had a few nice blocks for Brady, as he is known for…with the Bucs’ protection issues, not sure why Gio isn’t seeing more snaps. He’s been on the main roster for weeks, but this was his first time getting offensive snaps.
I’m sure Tampa Bay will lean heavily on Leonard Fournette in the playoff game and less on Rachaad White, despite White looking and working so much better.
Fournette was a (7/9) this season…but a (2/6) his final 8 games fading down.
Rachaad was a (4/13) but barely played early on. He finished as a (3/4)…(3/3) if you ignore this game he barely played in. He’s their most effective back and could help them pull off an upset, but TB has consistently favored Fournette over White, even when White ‘starts’ the game and clearly looks better/more effective.
Rachaad White will be a big discussion for us this offseason for Dynasty valuation.
I like betting against Tampa Bay, in part, because I ‘know’ that they restrict themselves by using Fournette too much and White too little. If Fournette was out, and they HAD to go with White as the lead…I’d not be so cavalier betting against Tampa Bay.
-- Tyler Allgeier (24-135-0, 0-0-0/0) rushed for 100+ yards here and that got him over 1,000+ for the season. We homed in Allgeier as a key part of our strategy in early summer 2022 Dynasty Rookie Drafts based on our scouting and prospect grades…and because of the great Dynasty Rookie Draft value he was due to be undervalued by the mainstream. Well, that all paid off nicely…for 2022 and for the future.
Allgeier will be Arthur Smith’s Derrick Henry (but not as good) for 2023 as he recreates the boring but moderately effective old Titans offense Smith conducted there a few years ago. Allgeier will be a nice RB1/2 in 2023…a great DRD value many of you pulled off this summer.
It was Allgeier in the 2nd/3rd-round of DRDs, Jelani Woods in the 3rd/4th, and Isaiah Pacheco in the 4th/5th (before August)…who needs 1st-round picks anyway? What a killer DRD many of us had this past offseason.
-- Drake London (6-120-0/8) had his first 100+ yard game of the year here. He’s been building towards it for weeks. A fast/decent start for London, followed by a fall to WR3/4 the middle chunk of the season, and his final five games of the season: 6.2 rec. (9.6 targets), 85.6 yards, but 0.0 TDs per game…more WR1/2 work like he’s built for.
All these top rookie WR prospects from 2022 began with up-and-down starts to the season, but then as they got acclimated, they rocketed to success in the middle-to-2nd-half of the season -- Watson, London, Pickens, Olave, Wilson, etc., are all their team’s CLEAR best WR as the season ended.
Imagine what will happen when CFB dumps us 5-10 more of these guys in 2023 (and again in 2024)? It’s going to be difficult to project WRs year-to-year because there is so much talent hitting, crowding the pool. They all can’t be their team’s #1 right away…like very talented WRs Alex Pierce, Treylon Burks and Jahan Dotson showed they have skills, but they weren’t their team’s top guy with big target counts in 2022.
Back to London…
London’s FF issue is going to be a lesser version of Kyle Pitts’…a stuffy, unexciting offense that is run-centric and has a low volume, lower tier QB (Ridder) at the helm.
-- 2022 UDFA rookie WR out of Kentucky, Josh Ali (0-0-0/1) got into this game for 7 snaps…got a deep ball target that was offline. Ali is a decent-ish, generic #4-5-6 WR prospect type for the NFL. He’s a pretty confident receiver but had a mostly underwhelming college career, but some games that gave scouts hope.
All the problems Drake London will have in this Art Smith offense is times 10 for a guy like Ali, who will be fighting to even make the Falcons roster…and then if he somehow scratches and claws his way to even a #3 WR…playing for the Arthur Smith Falcons…it won’t be anything FF great.
Snap Counts of Interest:
47 = Allgeier
19 = CPatt
05 = Av Williams
25 = Gio
16 = K Vaughn
10 = R White
03 = Fournette
46 = Thompkins
32 = Perriman
30 = Gage
