2022 Fantasy/Dynasty Monday Executive Summary: Week 18

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 09 January 2023

2022 Fantasy/Dynasty Monday Executive Summary: Week 18

Intro:

Well, there it is…the 2022 NFL regular season is in the books.

Mostly good reports from those FFMers in Week 18 playoff ordeals, but it was such a strange week of team motivations/player touch counts and coming off the CIN-BUF no-result Week 17 -- just a strange ending to this Fantasy season.

Great reporting from those in season-long handicapping pools, and bettors in general. We booked another stellar ATS week to help bring home a lot of prize money for those who followed along -- my best season of handicapping ever in my history in the football business.

The end of the regular season, which feels weird…which is what it's supposed to feel like. You go to do FF battle from summer prep to the actual drafts to the week-to-week non-stop twists and turns of lineup setting and trades and waivers and it's an everyday thing and then you watch the results come to life on THU-SUN-MON, you have a routine…and then all the sudden, the plug is pulled. Season over. Now what do we do?

Well, there's all the Fantasy NFL Playoff contests (NFL.com has a national one for free)…and more and more actual leagues are happening just for the NFL playoffs -- some with a whole redraft format and everything. You can set them up for your existing league or part of your league that's interested available on various formats/platforms. It's something to play for a little payola and keep the juices flowing, if desired.

In 2023, this week, we'll be debuting our weekly rankings/projections board for the playoffs…as well as reporting on things we're seeing for the wild card weekend for DFS, etc., and projecting everything ahead.

Also, there's betting on the games or player props, etc. We'll be hitting that hard this NFL playoff as more and more of us are able to bet on DraftKings or FanDuel with a few clicks on your cell phone.

Thursday night (time to be determined but start time like 9-10pmET+), this week, we have a video event planned for a discussion of each playoff game -- straight up winners, ATS, DFS, player props. It could be like a two-hour+, Joe Rogan-esque event -- we're doing it live on Twitch but more so to get it recorded and out there for your pre-wild card kickoff considerations to watch or listen to whenever you'd like. The official start time for that video event, for anyone interested in following along live or asking questions via chat, will be announced TUE-WED…but it will be THU later night ET for sure.

There are a number of ways we can all squeeze another month out of this FF and/or handicapping joyride…and try to squeeze in some more profits too.

Thank you all for your support this 2022 Fantasy season. None of this is possible at FFM without you. The foundation of studying all the tape and poring through numbers and sending out the reports and rankings and sharing the things I am seeing and hearing from sources, all to give us some kind of edge in Fantasy or Handicapping -- it cannot happen without your support.

You're not guaranteed to 'dominate you league' (man, I hate that advertising in FF) or guaranteed to make a profit each year with FFM -- but we usually do pretty well for the P&L and title shots, but I will say that our goal is that every subscriber can/will be the most informed in their league…and you will (or you better) lead your league in transactions (waivers and trades) and your bench (for FF) will be higher scoring than everyone else's (usually is true for FFM teams year in-and-out). Having an alternative scouting, alternative to the mainstream football information…really understanding these players/teams better and differently than your league mates -- that makes the FF and Handicapping season more enjoyable with more shorthand and longhand inputs from our scouting. And that's what we aim to provide with FFM…your personal scouting department, and you're the GM that decides what to do or not do with the information.

Thank you for keeping me in the fight and on the frontline of the battle studying football non-stop all calendar year to bring the info to you for your consideration. Your subscription support keeps the Little Engine That Could, chugging up the hill…for over a decade now! Thank you!

Your support has also helped us redesign our website for 2023. Sometime Tuesday 1/10/2023 afternoon, the FFM and CFM .coms and .nets we have right now will all be redirected to our new website design. The new site has many upgraded user features to make the experience easier and smoother…also it's just one subscription now…when you subscribe, you're able to access everything from FFM/CFM current and past (Draft Guide will be separate/a la carte). And we're introducing month-to-month subscriptions to go along with an annual/yearly subscription. No more 37 subscription choices and confusing packages.

Lots more to talk about for our new site, but you can preview the new site here: (you're already here now!)

* 'ffmetrics' is the placeholder site address we developed the new website on, but all our normal .com/.net URLs will be directed to this site Tuesday. Your old/saved quick links or icons to FFM/CFM may be broken during the switchover. You'll just save a new link off the new site when you want for quick access purposes. Our App notifications on reports publishing may also be down for a bit while we transition. We'll keep you posted.

The entire 2022 season of reports are on the new site and most current reports/things we've published (the past several weeks) are on the new site as a free view for now so people can see the new look. The full access via subscription to sign up for -- the details and opportunity for that will be available later this week/the start of next week.

OK, it's time for me to go start scouting and constructing the analytics and reporting out for the 2023 NFL Draft/Dynasty Rookie Drafts…while betting up a storm during the NFL playoffs. And working on a whole new value concept and strategy for 2023 redraft. No days off in Fantasy…Football.

One last intro video for 2022 season on the Executive Report…a video to put a cap on the wacky end for this season for you commissioners who had to deal with the CIN-BUF fallout in your leagues (caution, language): https://youtu.be/VR3G_JhDtaQ

Just nine short months until Week 1 of the 2023 season.

*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.

A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.

--THREE THINGS (from each Sunday game)--

My instant reaction from the games this weekend. I'll watch the tape back on these games all week, and I might see something that changes some of the opinions below…but as an instant reaction to things to start the week, here we go…

KC-LV

-- The Jarrett Stidham (22-36 for 219 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 7-50-0) follow up event wasn't as FF exciting, but it didn't look that bad on the live watch either. Stidham was under a ton of pressure (6 sacks, 14 QB hits) and had a couple dropped TDs early in the game, which allowed the game to get away from the Raiders and put Stidham in an all-pass comeback attempt with the KC pass rush teeing off on him. There's still a chance Stidham is the 2023 Week 1 starter…but more chance he is not.

-- Meaningless game for LV…an eventual blowout…and Zamir White (1-4-0) sees one touch. Message received Josh (McDaniels)…message received. Downgrade for Stash. Likely Vegas drafts/signs another RB to go with White…or just re-signs Josh Jacobs (17-45-0, 2-5-0/3).

-- Kadarius Toney (2-18-0/2, 3-26-1) felt like the centerpiece of the offense…but just 18 snaps/31% of the snaps played…low 30%s on offensive snaps for three straight games. He's stuck in a range of snaps, touches where he cannot break out for FF output…he's just a gimmick still at this point.

2023 breakout? We'll see…we'll be debating it all offseason.

Toney only played 9 games this season and was a (1/8).

TEN-JAX

-- Keep in mind the Titans were missing a few key O-Lineman the past few games, so the Josh Dobbs (20-29 for 179 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 5-32-0) start here, and the prior week, was not so bad in context. Possibly good enough he's going to stick around on the roster for 2023…and possibly fights Malik Willis for the #2 job…and that will say a lot about Willis's development and standing with Vrabel if Dobbs is the #2 in 2023 -- but also the opposite is true if Willis dispatches Dobbs, or Tennessee lets Dobbs walk in free agency.

-- This Titans run defense was amazing in the 2nd-half of the season. Travis Etienne (7-17-0, 2-17-0/2) was the latest flat out stuffed RB by this Titans run defense. If Tennessee gets all their secondary back healthy in 2023, this will be one of the top defenses in the NFL…a possible top DST candidate. They still have Houston and Indy in their division too…

-- Treylon Burks (4-19-0/7) dropped some key passes in this game…really cost the team. Not easy catches but catches a '#1' has to make. The prior week, he dropped at least one easy pass for a 3rd-down conversion. Most of the big-name rookie WRs got better as they went…Burks got hurt and missed games down the stretch then didn't play that well in Weeks 17-18.

Burks flashed some moments where he looked like a star but also looked too much like a Courtland Sutton or Michael Gallup -- guys that look good, visually, but will be downfield prayer throws and not pitch and catch ace QB's BFF throws for consistent FF output. Plus, he has another year of Tannehill leading into Willis ahead…not high-volume passing game plans for Tennessee as we go.

Burks ended the season a (2/9).

TB-ATL

-- Tyler Allgeier (24-135-0) got his 1,000+ yard season here. Impressive because he didn't play as much in the 1st-half of the season. Not a bad 3rd-round pick in early Dynasty Rookie Drafts, no? How good was our Dynasty Rookie Draft plan in 2022? The new scouting year of studies and discoveries and anti-mainstream finds begins today and runs through August.

Allgeier closed the season with a (4/0) quality start run after a (1/11) start.

-- Ke'Shawn Vaughn (8-26-0, 2-8-0/2) got some extra work here in this meaningless game. He didn't do anything to garner attention…again. He potentially played his last down as a Buccaneer…but as long as Bruce Arians is around, he'll cling onto this wasted 2020 3rd-round draft pick

-- Desmond Ridder (19-30 for 224 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) threw his first TD pass of his career here…4 starts into his career…he will be Arthur Smith's QB for 2023, no doubt…the QB he goes down with the ship on.

Four starts…(0/4) for quality starts for Ridder in the 2022 season.

NE-BUF

-- DeVante Parker (6-79-2/7) is finally playing the best football of his career. It took 7 years, but he's finally fulfilling the promise of his college prospect self. The Pats possess Parker for 2023, but it's 50/50 they keep him at $6.3M to keep or zero hit to cut. He has played well for New England, but he's also been hurt a lot, missing games. He'll be closer to 31 years old than not come 2023 kickoff.

Parker ended the season with a (2/11) split on quality starts.

-- Josh Allen (19-31 for 254 yards, 3 TD/1 INT, 91-6-0) regular season games played with less than 60% Comp. Pct. in his career…

2018 = 9 times (11 starts)

2019 = 6 times (16 starts)

2020 = 2 times (16 starts) *His breakout season

2021 = 7 times (17 starts)

2022 = 7 times (17 starts)…six times in his last 11 games.

Not sure what's happening to Josh lately, but his last 11 games: 12 picks and under 255 yards passing nine times in that span.

Josh Allen finished the 2022 season with a (12/4) quality start split…saved/enhanced by his run game…the run game Sean McDermott said multiple times in the offseason he was going to halt/pull back on with Allen.

-- Part of Allen's issue may be his WR group…

Gabe Davis (3-39-0/10) is not a very good NFL WR…and there are so many better WRs flooding into the league from college, drafted and undrafted, and there's many grinder veteran journeyman WRs (Hodgins, Hollins, Dortch, etc.) starting to make impacts when given the chance. How does Buffalo, with an elite QB, have Davis as their #2? How did they keep Isaiah Hodgins on their practice squad for this/Davis to be propelled…only for Hodgins to be stolen away by NYG? John Brown (1-42-1/1) was activated here? Are you kidding me? Buffalo is trying to put the retirement tour WR group together with Brown and Cole Beasley. Is Stevie Johnson ready to go for the playoffs? Steve Tasker?

Buffalo's weaker WR group might cost them in their games against KC or Cincy in the playoffs. Expect an upgrade in the offseason and/or a Khalil Shakir ascension to the #2 WR target for Allen.

Gabe Davis started the season in-demand as a (3/2) but finished with a (1/9)…seven straight non-quality starts.

MIN-CHI

-- Mostly meaningless game but given the Sunday schedule the Vikings had to play to win on the outside chance the 49ers might lose later in the day and the Vikings could get to the #2 seed. So, when I saw Dalvin Cook (11-37-0, 1-0-0/1) go down and then out…I could only shake my head at the already-in-the-playoff teams that didn't really need to play stars/key starters but did play them Week 18, putting them at risk of ruining the team's chances in next week's playoffs.

We'll see how bad Cook's injury is, but if he's questionable/not 100%...the already-doubted-by-everyone Vikings are going to be even more doubted for the 1st-round of the playoffs.

Dalvin was somewhat disappointing (8/9) this season…a (2/6) to the finish.

-- Chase Claypool (2-29-0/6) had a miserable end to a miserable season. He doesn't look comfortable in this offense, still. It's not going to be a high-volume passing game for the WRs under Justin Fields…plus, Darnell Mooney will be the #1 look for Fields. It's an ever-darkening cloud situation for Claypool's 2023 and beyond. He's possibly never going to become the star his athleticism says he could be. A major blow for the analytics only scouting…as CC broke the system with his athleticism and size profile. He was a rookie star out of the gates, and then pulled back on by the team/QB as that rookie season went on…and he's never really recovered.

-- Watching Nick Mullens (11-13 for 116 yards, 0 TD/1 INT), Nathan Peterman (11-19 for 114 yards, 1 TD/0 INT), and Tim Boyle (2-8 for 33 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs) in this game…it looks like three guys headed to the XFL or USFL because there's nothing left for them in the NFL with the flood of QB talent washing in every draft season now.

BAL-CIN

-- Ravens UDFA rookie QB Anthony Brown (19-44 for 286 yards, 0 TD/2 INT) was in an impossible spot…go face the motivated, angry, very good defense of the Cincinnati Bengals with his own team pulling back on key starters. Hard to judge Brown from this performance, but he definitely did not breakthrough or standout in it…no possibility he'll start in the playoffs with Lamar out. Tyler Huntley's job is safe (with no Lamar, which is likely for the playoffs).

-- Isaiah Likely (8-103-0/13) got a good run here with Mark Andrews sitting. I did not like Likely's scouting profile coming out of Coastal Carolina. I thought he was too small (but measured bigger than I imagined at the NFL Combine), too unathletic and had a bad personality to be a top TE prospect, but I gotta say -- every time I watch him play in the pros, preseason or regular season, he answers the bell/performs well.

Likely has good-to-great hands and is much faster on the field than his NFL Combine/Pro Day speed times portended. He's slimmed down some and is a legit NFL TE…buried as long as Andrews is active. They might need to make Likely more of a WR than TE.

-- I'll have to watch the tape to see what's up…but Tee Higgins (1-7-0/7) had a horrific game here, arguably the worst of his career. But the stat line/live watch made me wonder: Is the Damar Hamlin event haunting him? Will it continue on into the playoffs?

HOU-IND

-- Davis Mills (22-38 for 298 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs) had some really brilliant throws in this game (and one ultra-lucky one). He's a really good QB who is playing on a team with a weak O-Line that's made even worse by the absolute lack of any type of running game the past month+.

But the public sentiment is against him…AND Houston (now) has the #2 overall pick in the draft…so, going QB in the draft will be too easy a pacifier for the fans/owner (and new coach). You see what the Jags traded Gardner Minshew for when they got Trevor Lawrence…might only take a 3rd-4th round pick to get Mills away from Houston, for any teams paying attention…and might a John Harbaugh (Stanford ties/guy, as is Mills) led NFL team (if it happens) be interested in acquiring Mills?

Thanks to the hail mary TD at the end…Mills was the top scoring FF QB in Week 18…logging his 2nd quality start of the season…a (2/13).

-- Zack Moss (18-114-1, 3-7-0/3) still looks horrible, but he did get a 100+ yard game here…against one of the league's worst run defenses. Great. There is no future in Moss for FF/Dynasty.

-- Indy trying to win…Moss touches the ball 21 times…and Jelani Woods (1-9-0/4) got one whole touch. He isn't even part of the offense when time-after-time he makes big plays in games on simple throws, and then they ignore him the rest of the games under Jeff Saturday.

Jeff Saturday is not a bad head coach option because he's inexperienced…he's a bad head coach option because he cannot identify talent/weapons and didn't force the staff to come up with plans for that obvious weapon (Woods). But they did go heavy Zack Moss.

If Saturday gets this job officially, and the odds are he will, it hurts our Jelani stock in Dynasty.

NYJ-MIA

-- Tyreek Hill (2-23-0/5) hurt his ankle in-game and missed a lot of the game with the injury. Hill had a terrific season with Tua and then less terrific, but still good, with Teddy/Skylar. It's possible he'll have Tom Brady throwing to him with Sean Payton calling the plays in 2023…and that would be a good thing for Tyreek, but a healthy Tua better.

Tyreek ends the season as an elite (14/3)….(14/2) if you take away this hurt ankle game.

-- Jeff Wilson (16-72-0, 2-2-0/2) is a Mike McDaniel favorite, and he could be the desired lead back to start 2023 season…if McDaniel is back, but if McDaniel gets replaced then Wilson will be off to wherever there are Kyle Shanahan 'tree' coaches…NYJ or back to SF or to wherever McDaniel lands.

Wilson was a (3/13) this season…with an (0/6) finish.

-- All week leading up to this game, I said I was 'done' with Robert Saleh if he let Sauce Gardner (6 tackles) play in this game…maybe I'd extend some grace if it was just for a series or two. Instead, Sauce played into the 4th-quarter…and went down with an ankle injury that everyone held their breath on -- but it looks like he avoided any serious injury.

So, I am a man of my word -- I can't 'be down' with the Saleh administration from the decisions on personnel he's made and listening/watching various coverage of him on the sidelines and in interviews. Not my cup of tea…never has been back to his D-C days in SF. Hasn't won me over yet as NYJ head coach. No playoffs next year and he's gone, back to eternal D-C status.

CAR-NO

-- Final game of the season…last chance for Sam Darnold to show his wares going into free agency…and he completes 5-of-15 passes for 43 yards with no TDs and 2 picks. The Darnold 3-5 year run as an NFL backup begins now…on another team not-Carolina.

-- If you can explain why Alvin Kamara (23-107-0, 1-3-0/2), a veteran star player, is taking a season high total of rushing attempts in a meaningless Week 18 game…then you will have cracked the code on these crackpot NFL head coaches. What a useless season from AK. I bet the Saints draft a running back top 100 or so this year/2023. They have to with the Kamara suspension potential looming.

Kamara was a (6/9) this season…wow.

-- Chris Olave (5-60-1/12) got 12 targets in this game…only connected on 5 of them. Hey, maybe throwing some to emerging weapons Rashid Shaheed (3-34-0/4) and Juwan Johnson (1-21-0/1) might have helped? Who am I to question the great offensive mind of Dennis Allen…and his 7 points scored here in a loss.

The Saints have scored over 21 points in a game just once in their last 9 games…six of them 17 or fewer points scored.

Olave, like Kamara, was a (6/9) this season.

CLE-PIT

-- Another week, another game for Kenny Pickett (13-29 for 195 yards, 1 TD/0 INT), another game with low Comp. Pct. (4 of his last 6 games under 60%), low yards passing (under 200 yards passing in 6 of his last 8 games), and 0-1 TD passes (all of his 13 game appearances in the NFL so far). He's not improving, in stats or on tape…and that is scary going into the 2023 offseason.

Pickett was a (0/13) this season.

-- Diontae Johnson (2-38-0/10) set an NFL record for most catches in a season by a WR without a pass catch TD. Congrats. He also had 2-3 more drops in this game…a game where he connected on just 20% of his game high targets in this game. Why is Pickett continuing to force passes to Diontae when George Pickens (3-72-1/6) is RIGHT THERE for the taking? More worries on Pickett…and his coaching staff.

Diontae had a robust (3/14) season…congrats to those that took our advice and made him the must-sell of the 2022 offseason/preseason. Who will be the top must-sell Dynasty player of 2023 offseason? We're working on it all offseason…the NFL Draft and free agency impacts this, so likely no major calls until after those events.

Despite far less targeting as the season went on, Pickens was a (7/10)…a (5/6) his final 11 games with the swindling looks.

-- Donovan Peoples-Jones (2-42-0/4) was really coming on with Jacoby Brissett, but with Deshaun Watson, DPJ has been fading. His last 3 games: 1.3 rec. (4.0 targets), 19.0 yards, 0.33 TDs per game. He's stuck in a bad spot as the #2 WR look in a wobbly passing game with a game plan that wants to run the ball.

DPJ was a (3/14) this season.

LAC-DEN

-- I'm going to say my REWIND study scouting this past offseason on the problems with Courtland Sutton (3-33-1/7) were pretty on point, despite several naysayers when I brought up the emerging problem with Sutton. He's just not a legit #1 WR anymore…not in this era. He might have been 10+ years ago, but not now. He doesn't get open often and is usually just a deep ball down field contested catch hope.

Sutton had a very disappointing 102 catch, 796 yards, 1 TD…just 1 TD catch season. It wasn't all (or mostly) because of Russell Wilson/Nate Hackett.

Sutton was a (3/12) this season….and (0/11) finish.

-- Why the Chargers played their starters deep into this totally, 100% meaningless game…I have no idea. Looking weak against Denver helps them how for the playoffs? And Mike Williams (4-32-0/5) got hurt in the game. Congrats!! So smart. If there's a bad decision to be made, Brandon Staley will make it…I think we'll have the Jags +2.5 as the top bet of the wild card weekend, potentially. *Late news: that line has already collapsed to 'pick 'em

-- Russell Wilson (13-24 for 283 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) ends the season with just 13 TD passes (and 10 INTs) in 15 starts this season. Versus LAC this season he was 4 TDs/1 INT)…so in his other 13 starts he produced 9 TDs and 9 picks. Just a dreadful season…and it's also not all Nate Hackett's fault.

A surprise…Russ was a (5/10) this season and a (3/1) finish.

NYG-PHI

-- NOW Lawrence Cager (8-69-0/10) has his big game! I tried to call this 2-3 times midseason. Good for him. He looked really good. He's got a future as a TE pass game weapon in this league…and thus is on the FF/Dynasty radar going into 2023.

-- And GOOD for Davis Webb (23-40 for 168 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 6-41-1)…thrown into a Week 18 game with his team resting everyone AND facing a desperate Eagles team/good defense at home -- and Webb accounted for himself pretty well. Not a future star, just a solid backup for Brian Daboll.

-- And GOOD for Boston Scott (9-54-1)…I always maintained, for the past three years, Scott was their best RB…better than Miles Sanders (11-33-0, 0-0-0/1), who flopped in another big game here and another game with no catches. Scott is a free agent this offseason…I hope he finds a better home to get into the offense regularly as part of a duo, etc.

ARI-SF

-- Brock Purdy (15-20 for 178 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) should've sewn up the Offensive Rookie of the Year with this performance. Undefeated as a starter with 13 TDs/3 INTs in 6 games. If he doesn't win that award, we riot!

As far as overall Rookie of the Year…it's a fun debate of Purdy vs. Sauce Gardner…a debate we'll have in a few weeks.

Purdy was solid in for FF results in each of his 6 games, but it was just a (1/5) output for FF quality starts.

-- I guess we know where Keaontay Ingram (3-5-0, 2-0-0/3) stands with Kliff Kingsbury, if KK returns in 2023. I didn't like Ingram coming out of USC this year, but THEY drafted him and rostered him all year…how is he not playing/touching the ball more than Corey Clement (8-23-1, 3-25-0/4) in this meaningless game?

*Late note…Kliff is no more. KobraKy is no more.

-- Deebo Samuel (1-4-0, 2-20-0/3) returned to action from a multiple week injury. There was no need to go heavy with Deebo here, just some touches to get him back in the flow. He missed a lot of time with Purdy, however.

Deebo had a disappointing (5/8) quality start split this season.

LAR-SEA

-- I'm still marveling at how Cam Akers (21-104-0, 3-24-0/3) could have finished the season with three straight 100+ yard rushing games. He was on the verge of being released by LAR early on. A fortuitous schedule and a limited offense and no other RBs to speak of on this team helped tremendously.

Akers 2022 finish proves its more important to be in the right situation than what your talent grade is from us or the mainstream or anyone.

Akers started as an (0/9) but finished a (4/2).

-- Three 100+ yards rushing games in a row for Kenneth Walker (29-114-0, 1-10-0/1). He'll be the center of the offensive plan next year…but potentially working with a defined 3rd-down back specialist that could undermine his PPR value in 2023+ a touch. 0-1 targets in a game in five of his last 6 games.

Walker finished with an (8/7) split…an (8/4) when he really started playing the lead with Rashaad Penny gone.

-- Geno Smith (19-31 for 213 yards, 1 TD/2 INT) was a great/amazing story for 2022…but started sputtering late with 4 TDs/3 INTs his final 4 games with all games under 250 yards passing. Still, he'll likely be starter Week 1 for 2023, if Pete Carroll is still there.

Geno was a (7/10) this season…with an (0/4) finish.

DAL-WSH

-- Decent debut for Sam Howell (11-19 for 169 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 5-35-1)…had some highs and lows, but made plays a few times when he had to. From the live watch, I didn't get that instant WOW like I did from the Brock Purdy debut. We'll see what it looks like on tape study this week.

-- Good for Jarrett Patterson (17-78-0, 0-0-0/1)…that guy has been on the practice squad most all season and then they were gonna try to give Jonathan Williams (14-32-0, 2-9-0/2) a lead role here but JPatt was just more effective and took over the lead. Patterson will have to fight for a roster spot in 2023…might get cut. He could matter somewhere if forced the opportunity.

-- What is going on with Dak Prescott (14-37 for 128 yards, 1 TD/1 INT)? He looked DREADFUL in this game. 14 of 37? 128 yards? Another pick…lucky it wasn't more? 11 picks in his last 7 games. He still was producing high Comp. Pct. games and good TD pass counts during the pick-fests he's been having…but this week a career low for a game 37.8% Comp Pct...his career low by a mile. Gonna create doubt in me betting against TB wild card week. I so want to bet against TB, but now Dallas looks wobbly too.

Dak is a (5/7) on the season…a (5/6) in games he wasn't hurt/left early in.

DET-GB

-- I have been backing Detroit's defense ass really very good, for several weeks, despite the media mocking their defense (was bad early on but has been good-to-great the last two months)…but the one game they recently looked stupid in was in the FF playoffs and we got our heads lopped off by them vs. Carolina.

In this game, the DET-DST held GB to just 16 points, got two sacks, a pick and a fumble recovery here. This Lions team is going to be the favorites in their division in 2023…and this emerging defense is a good reason why that will likely happen.

-- Aaron Rodgers (17-27 for 205 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) did the unthinkable…an (0/17) season for quality starts. Not one quality start all year. I think he'll move on to another team in 2023, but with Rodgers you never know.

-- Who the Green Bay 2023 QB is means A LOT for Christian Watson's (5-104-0/6) valuation ahead. If with Jordan Love, and Love flops…he takes Watson down with him. A 2023 returning Rodgers likely has Watson as a WR1 projection preseason.

Watson started the season an (0/6) and ended with a (5/3).

===== FIVE PLAYERS =====

*** FIVE WAIVER/FREE AGENT PLAYERS TO TRUST***

*Looking at players owned less than 50% on average in leagues across the whole FF-landscape. Your league, obviously, may be different/deeper.

**Adding a school grade to show my interest level (A-F)…and I don't mean that a D-F grade is 'bad'/just showing how pressing/important to me, your situation may differ due to injury, etc..

***IF FAAB% mentioned at any time below is based on a 16–20-man roster league. And it's hard to predict the right bid % because every league, situation, and lineup needs are so different. So, doing the best I can to 'project' (i.e. 'guess') what they will be based on early chatter.

*Again, note…not a grade on talent…just how important/urgent/great the waiver move is in context.