2022 Week 17: Steelers 16, Ravens 13 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
*Weeks 16-17-18 game week, the game reports will be shortened a bit on some of them to discussing/quick hitting on just the critical facts from the rewatch studies so we can spend more time on looking at the tape of last week's games for projections prep and sleeper finds this critical FF playoff week/s.
Boy, this was a treat to rewatch *insert eyeroll here*…although an exciting final minute come-from-behind win ending helped the live watch be more palatable. Two dull offenses flailing away at each other here, but for the second week in a row an offensive slog by Pittsburgh and trailing most of the game those last two weeks…the game ended in a TD pass very late for the eventual Steelers win.
Either team could've won this…by attrition, but the Steelers lucked out in the end and won it. Pittsburgh climbs to (8-8), somehow…and has a path to the playoffs that needs a lot of help but isn't impossible. I'm betting/hoping against them getting to the playoffs…but the Steelers are on a totally lucky (schedule) roll right now, so I wouldn't bet too hard against them.
Baltimore falls to (10-6), about to lose the AFC North due to the Cincy non-game Week 17…but could get into a coin flip situation if they meet in the playoffs. I'm not going to think about all the machinations…the Ravens aren't very good, and Cincy should destroy them Week 18.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Kenny Pickett (15-27 for 168 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) isn't getting better as we go. He isn't playing poorly…he's just 'meh'/bland. I don't know if it's him…or the offense/offensive play calling. The fact that he isn't growing with and racking numbers with George Pickens tells me there's some level of blame to go onto Pickett, on top of the weak offensive coaching he is getting.
Maybe he'll grow into more a passer in 2023, but I look at rookie Brock Purdy walking in and slinging the ball all over right off the bat…while Pickett plays like a backup QB playing it safe to try and stay close to win in the end…and it doesn't make me feel great about Pickett being 'special' in the future.
It's OK enough for NFL purposes, I guess…Pickett is (6-5) as a starter so far. But not good for FF purposes…Pickett has thrown just 6 TDs passes in 12 games…yikes, with 9 picks. I just don't see the IT factor yet with Pickett. Good/solid/OK but not 'special' in any way…yet. Maybe never will be. Maybe makes the leap in year two? We'll be studying this issue this offseason and reporting out.
-- Speaking of George Pickens (2-29-0/4)…I've not seen a great WR talent show his greatness as a rookie, only to have the QB and O-C turn away from them since the Steelers did this to Chase Claypool.
I have no explanation why this is suddenly happening under Mike Tomlin, but it does/has…and the 2022 season for Pickens is no exception.
Can Pickens rise in 2023? It's not up to him…it's up to his coaching staff and QB, and the Steelers are a win away from for-sure bringing back their entire staff…so…
We'll be debating this for Dynasty this offseason right along with the Pickett issue/future.
-- Diontae Johnson (2-35-0/7) is closing in on an NFL record for most catches in a season without a TD. 84 catches right now with one more no-TD game to set the record.
It's not Diontae's fault. It's another damning piece of evidence against the Steelers offensive plan/coaching.
-- Najee Harris (22-11-0, 2-12-1/3) is one of the banes of my football existence…he's so not-special (he's 'fine'/OK enough) but his coaching staff thinks he's Derrick Henry (the same staff that creates/perpetuates their terrible passing game).
So, it's like David Montgomery…it doesn't matter if my scouting is 100% on the mark, if the RB's team believes said RB is the greatest and builds their offense around them -- then that RB is going to get all the touches they can, and that matters more for FF than a scouting grade or cool analytics on athletic ability.
This Steelers team/staff cannot try any harder to get Najee the ball more, they're at maximum effort to push him all the touches (20.7 carries per game the past three weeks)…while finding ways to get George Pickens the ball less…and as Jaylen Warren (12-76-0, 3-22-0/3) outclasses Najee about every game they play together -- but Jaylen will NEVER get a chance to lead the way until/unless Najee is out/gone and they're forced to use Warren as the lead.
But caution…these are the same offensive geniuses who think Bennie Snell is a desired RB to roster/use as a lead when Najee is banged up.
The Steelers are currently #29 in PPG scored in 2022 season.
*We have some upcoming website changes/upgrades coming in 2023. More news on that in a few days. Your saved URL/link for quick FFM access may not work with the upgrade (might have to get to the new page and resave as your quick access URL)…just noting this on the off-chance you get do get disconnected with your old link in the days to come -- that it is likely due to the site update. You can always find us via our (free) App or messages on Twitter or I'll put a message out on Video if needed. Again, more news on the 2023 website updates/upgrades as we get to 2023.*
-- Tyler Huntley (14-21 for 130 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) has played much worse than he did last season when he came in late in the campaign for injured Lamar. Huntley has played five games in relief of Lamar and he has only 2 TD passes (and 3 picks) to show for it.
Huntley is a restricted free agent, and if Lamar is not back…I don't believe Huntley will be back either. If Lamar stays, then Huntley might get another year as a restricted free agent. 2022 UDFA QB Anthony Brown is gonna pass Huntley, in the Ravens' eyes/depth chart, soon enough.
-- J.K. Dobbins (17-93-0, 0-0-0/0) looks great in short space/evasiveness, but he has definitely lost/not regained his long speed off his ACL issues. Regardless, Dobbins has been ultra-effective since returning from missing the middle chunk of the season.
In his last four games, Dobbins has run the ball 57 times for 397 yards (99.3 rushing yards per game)…a whopping 6.7 yards per carry.
The Dobbins downside in this offense, in PPR terms…1 catch on 2 targets total in his last 6 games.
Dobbins will be THE guy, in some kind of RB-duo/split for the Ravens in 2023, if he can stay healthy…another year removed from his wicked ACL tear/surgery/recovery.
-- The Steelers defense has held opponents to 17 or fewer points their last 6 games in a row. Impressive, but here's the QBs they faced in that stretch:
Matt Ryan
Marcus Mariota
Mitch Trubisky
Sam Darnold
Derek Carr (who was then benched after this game)
Tyler Huntley
Is it the Steelers D being so good…or the schedule? More schedule than not, to me…fir DST and wins/losses.
Pittsburgh Dad's take on all this: https://youtu.be/HldWa_1MTLA
Snap Counts of Interest:
45 = Najee
28 = Warren
26 = Dobbins
17 = Justice Hill
09 = Edwards
