DFS Shark Tank Week 18: Player/Stack/Avoid Pitch for the $1M+ Open Tournaments
Andrew Duhan, better known as ‘Andrew DFS’, is a serious DFS player and is the most expert player I (RC) know. He gives us weekly DFS advice for main slate’s every week. Here are some of his picks and avoids for this week…
QB STACK:
Week 18’s mainslate has the lowest average game totals this season. The highest OU for these games is 43.5 (BUF vs NE). This is driven by teams resting players if they are eliminated from playoff contention (e.g. CHI QB Justin Fields) or playoff teams with minimal (if at all) seeding implications either resting their players entirely (e.g. NYG QB Daniel Jones) or limiting playing time (e.g. TB QB Tom Brady).
My favorite QB play this week is CIN QB Joe Burrow. Burrow’s projected ownership percentage is less than 10% and he draws a favorable matchup against Baltimore’s secondary. The Bengals are incentivized to win this game as this will allow them to host the Wildcard game next week and possibly climb up to the second seed if Buffalo loses to the Patriots. If the Bengals lose, there is a scenario where they would have to play on the road for the Wildcard round. I would pair Burrow with CIN WRs Ja’Marr Chase and/or Tee Higgins; Chase will be a chalky play whereas Higgins has a projected ownership below 5%. A nice bring back piece for this stack is BAL TE Mark Andrews who has a lower than usual price (D$5,400) and started to show chemistry with QB Tyler Huntley last week.
Mid-range play of the week:
ATL RB Tyler Allgeier ($5,600) will be a popular play this week given the Falcons preference to run the ball and Tampa Bay resting key defensive starters. Allgeier is a great cash game play, but I might consider other options for large tournaments.
PHI RB Miles Sanders ($5,900) is a less chalky option with a projected ownership percentage of around 15%. The Eagles may deploy a run-heavy script to protect QB Jalen Hurts from reinjuring his shoulder. The Giants will be resting their starters which could lead to a big day for Sanders.
Cheap Play:
NO WR Rashid Shaheed ($4,200) is a good option this week but will be heavily owned. A less chalky option is ARI WR Greg Dortch ($3,800) who had at least 10 targets the past two weeks, but couldn't do much with last week’s high volume though. Dortch’s low fantasy output last week is most likely depressing his ownership level this week. ARI RB James Conner and WR Deandre Hopkins have both ruled out this week, the former was active last week. Dortch should be a lock for at least 7 targets which could lead to a nice return given his lower price tag.
Chalk to avoid:
Of all the players with an ownership projection of more than 20%, I would consider fading PHI QB Jalen Hurts. As discussed above, the Eagles may try to protect Hurts through a run heavy game script. The Eagles will be facing the Giants backups which increases their chances of controlling this game and could result in Hurts sitting out for some portion of the second half.
