2022 Week 17: Falcons 20, Cardinals 19 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
*Weeks 16-17-18 game week, the game reports will be shortened a bit on some of them to discussing/quick hitting on just the critical facts from the rewatch studies so we can spend more time on looking at the tape of last week's games for projections prep and sleeper finds this critical FF playoff week/s.
A meaningless game, but somewhat interesting to rewatch/study to get more looks at newer/young QBs for future scouting. And we'll get into the two QBs in more detail in the player's section.
As far as the game itself…Arizona started a journeyman QB who had just joined the team a few weeks ago and he played toe-to-toe, back-and-forth with Atlanta's (supposed) hot shot rookie QB, and Arizona could've/should've won…but the Falcons won at the buzzer with a chip shot field goal. Who cares? No one.
Both teams are out of the playoffs and remain that way.
There are rumors about Kliff Kingsbury likely to be fired after Arizona's Week 18's game. I'd bet that's true more than false, but I don't know that it's a guarantee. Arizona put a lot of money into Kliff this past offseason. But I think the GM is definitely done…and then if you're going to hire a new GM, you might as well fire the current coach who's on the bubble and then pursue a big-name coach with the ability to pick his own GM…doing so as bait to lure a bigger name head coach (like a Sean Payton).
I believe Arizona would have also tried to trade Kyler Murray this upcoming offseason, but he tore his ACL a few weeks ago and killed all his preseason value. Arizona's franchise is a total mess…and it will take years to clean it up -- that's why they likely won't get a Sean Payton type coach, and thus they may keep Kliff with the sunk costs…just let him coach this mess for another year or two, save some money, while a new GM comes in and tries to clean things up. There are no great options Arizona's President has left himself with. It's his fault…he wrote the checks to allow these guys to ruin his franchise.
The Falcons, to me, have one of the worst coaches in the NFL and should fire him immediately…but everyone in the media loves Arthur Smith, so the Falcons will stick with it for another year and then likely make their move after a disappointing 2023 season. Smith will have another year to destroy the FF-value of Pitts-London.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Time and time again, in the 2022 NFL season, we're seeing QBs unearthed from the grave and thrown into emergency starting roles…and a lot of the times when they've only been with the team for two weeks (or two days in one instance) -- and these journeymen QBs are thrown into a situation…and they look just fine.
David Blough played a good game here. He's not a future star or starter, but he's a solid enough emergency backup. Probably 15-20 years ago, 2022 David Blough dropped back in time, would've become an NFL starter…a la like a Gus Frerotte (anyone memba him?). Blough would've gotten attention with this Wk17) type performance in unusual circumstances -- but in 2022, things like this with backup/journeyman QBs are something we're seeing every other week now.
I give Blough credit -- he held his own in the pocket. He made throws all over the field and into tight windows over-the-middle. He threw some passes offline but for the most part he was fine. Tough matchup with the 49ers this week, potentially, if the 49ers need to play for anything.
-- I've mentioned this a few times, but…
I heard the TV game announcers mention their pregame/weekend meeting with David Blough…as they do. And what they mentioned caught my attention, as it usually doesn't…the announcers were talking about asking Blough if he felt comfortable enough with things only being there for approx. two weeks…and also asking if he had any receiver that he felt a connection with -- the answer to that question got my attention when Blough told them 'Trey McBride' (7-78-1/10).
I thought that was an odd, intriguing, maybe perplexing answer…of all the receivers the Cardinals have (and Hopkins was practicing some with them as well, before being ruled out), Blough has a connection with Trey McBride? Weird. Then Blough proceeds to go out and work McBride like he's Travis Kelce with Mahomes (maybe that's a little hyperbole). There was DEFINITELY a Blough-McBride connection. Whether they can keep that up Week 18, now that it is public knowledge/public video and facing the vaunted TE-killing defense of the 49ers…we'll see.
I thought McBride worked really well here. He's got great hands, as expected/scouted but no real pizazz to his game otherwise…but he could end up like Zach Ertz -- a good hands TE who just becomes a trusted option in a good offense and becomes a rock solid PPR Fantasy TE year-to-year.
I was hoping Blough would favor his easy throw, Greg Dortch (4-15-0/10)…but the two of them had the opposite of the McBride-Blough connection. Blough and Dortch missed each other several times…the intent was there (a game high 10 targets) but something was always a tick off between them.
There was a better connection between Blough-Marquise Brown (6-61-0/9), a more downfield throw than the easy Blough-Dortch throw. I was surprised but it's testament to how solidly Blough threw the ball this game.
And all these connections or not, for Blough…tough matchup Week 18 if they face a motivated 49ers defense.
*We have some upcoming website changes/upgrades coming in 2023. More news on that in a few days. Your saved URL/link for quick FFM access may not work with the upgrade (might have to get to the new page and resave as your quick access URL)…just noting this on the off-chance you get do get disconnected with your old link in the days to come -- that it is likely due to the site update. You can always find us via our (free) App or messages on Twitter or I'll put a message out on Video if needed. Again, more news on the 2023 website updates/upgrades as we get to 2023.*
-- I watched/studied this game mostly for Desmond Ridder (19-26 for 169 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 4-9-0) scouting. Ridder continues to be exactly what we scouted him (pre-NFL Draft, and then the preseason) to be -- a backup QB talent who predetermines where he's gonna throw his passes and makes head coaches fall in love with him because he runs the plays exactly the way the coach called them…in practice…but in games, when the bullets are flying, Ridder is still gonna make safe or predetermined throws with little/no ability to read the field and go to 2nd or 3rd options. He's a robot QB.
A 'robot QB' looks great in practice. Ridder has a pretty good 'whip' for an arm…he really has a nice, strong, quick snap throw. He's fairly accurate. He works well rolling out and throwing. He's just not gonna sit in the pocket and take over games with his assassin passing skills working all his options. He's a 'get rid of it quick' passer…with a lot of timing/blind throws. You have to create a controlled environment for him -- which coaches like Arthur Smith LOVE. Everything looks great 'on paper' and 'in the meetings' and 'at the walkthrough'. And then reality strikes on Sunday and they can't understand why they aren't winning.
Desmond Ridder has started three games so far…0 TDs/0 INTs total in those 3 games (and just 161.3 passing yards per game)…an Arthur Smith DREAMWORLD, no turnovers!!!! Doesn't matter if they don't score…they didn't turn the ball over, which is the top priority of most all head coaches -- they'd rather lose with no turnovers then win but have turnovers. It sounds silly but you never hear a new coach come in at his intro press conference and talk about wanting to lead the league in scoring…no, they say they want to play disciplined football and be the lowest turnover and penalty team in the league.
Ridder is the KING of QB prospects for these types of risk-averse coaches.
Maybe Ridder will get better with time. He has tools. I just don't see, between our college scouting and his first 3 NFL games, that Ridder has some amazing 'feel' for the position. As Brock Purdy walks in and throws the ball all over like he's been doing it at a Pro Bowl level in the NFL for a decade…from the moment he stepped onto the field this season.
Ridder's conservative play + Arthur Smith's incredibly oppressive conservative play calling = Kyle Pitts and Drake London are screwed, until Smith is fired.
-- Tyler Allgeier (20-83-1, 1-12-0/1) has a chance not to be screwed by Art Smith in 2023 because Smith wants to run-run-run…and he seems to want to run-run-run behind Allgeier, which makes sense because Allgeier is a very good RB prospect, as we foretold pre-NFL Draft…arguably the best all-around RB in the Draft.
Allgeier's last three games: 18.3 carries, 98.7 rushing yards, 116.0 total yards, 0.67 TDs per game.
Allgeier started the season as a (1/11) but is a (3/0) since/in his last 3 games. He is the Falcons current and future lead RB.
-- Cordarrelle Patterson (9-42-1, 6-42-0/8) finally got used at WR as much as at RB…now that the season is effectively over, Art Smith does the thing that creates some radical offense for his team. He has eschewed this all year until now. Why now? You gotta be a special kind of stupid…
If there is any player that has been more misused, underutilized in an NFL career than CPatt…I have no idea who it would be. He's stuck in Atlanta for another season in 2023, most likely.
-- I'm thinking James Conner (16-79-0, 3-31-0/3) will be out for or sees reduced Week 18. He got hurt in this game, late, then was DNP on practices this week early on but is trying to get back practicing for the game later week. It's a meaningless Week 18 game, so I'd guess Conner will be held out regardless.
Corey Clement (7-32-0, 0-0-0/1) came in for the injured Conner and took all the work. Why rookie Keaontay Ingram (1 snap) was not injected in is a mystery. I would assume Ingram will get some, half, or a majority of the work Week 18…but with the way this franchise is run, who knows? And they face motivated (likely) San Fran, so 'not good' for anything on the Arizona offense.
Snap Counts of Interest:
34 = Allgeier
31 = CPatt
10 = Avery W
71 = McBride
67 = Mq Brown
60 = Dortch
35 = Baccellia
17 = Robbie A
12 = AJ Green
41 = Conner
32 = Clement
01 = K Ingram
