2022 Week 17: Saints 20, Eagles 10 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
*Weeks 16-17-18 game week, the game reports will be shortened a bit on some of them to discussing/quick hitting on just the critical facts from the rewatch studies so we can spend more time on looking at the tape of last week’s games for projections prep and sleeper finds this critical FF playoff week/s.
This was no fluke…the team that played better won. This (loss) is where we are at with the Eagles…and what’s happened to them could happen to any good (or bad) team -- bad injuries at key positions at the wrong time. They are missing Jalen Hurts, a serious MVP candidate. They are missing Lane Johnson, arguably a top three O-Lineman in the NFL. They are also missing CB Avonte Maddox, who may be one of the 3-4 most important defensive players they have -- every time he’s out, this defense tends to look more human/susceptible. I didn’t realize Maddox was good but on a short sample size this season, no Maddox availability has not been great for this Philly D.
It's like the Titans…a team when at full strength are a serious Super Bowl contender, but they’ve been totally chopped down by injuries really since the beginning of the season and the key injuries just kept happening -- they’ve lost their QB, their top OLs, their starting corners, their best pass rusher (before the season began) and second best pass rusher in-season…they are on fumes going to face Jacksonville Week 18.
Injuries destroy various teams in the NFL, and we don’t really fully consider it as time goes on…we just write these teams off when they fall from the playoffs, and then we blame the coach or GM, and then focus on what thirteen to forty-seven moves the team needs for next year/the future…when really just getting everyone healthy would be the key. Injuries are so huge on how to properly evaluate and handicap these teams week-to-week, season-to-season.
AND when the Saints get a win like this, we give them all the credit…but really it was a flawed ‘win’ -- the Saints would’ve gotten smoked here if Philly was at full strength, but again…we’ll forget about the context for all the wins teams got against injury devastated teams. The 49ers last lost games in Weeks 6-7…when they were utterly battered with injuries on defense and on the O-Line and at running back. ATL and KC got big credit for beating them…they shouldn’t have.
The Eagles lost here and now are in a do-or-die Week 18 for the division title and #1 seed. Fortunately, they play the Giants who will be sitting all their key starters. Philly, despite its mass injury issues, should win Week 18 and be the #1 seed -- and then they might get all their key injured players back and be a top team again in the playoffs.
The Saints had to win to have a chance at the NFC South title, and IT was happening just the way they needed -- but then Carolina lost their lead/win over Tampa late in the game and by virtue of the TB win…the Saints season (for the playoffs) comes to an end. The Saints were one of the most banged up teams of the 2022 season, but they were also one of the most poorly coached/planned teams with a poor locker room collection of (non)leaders. The Saints need an organizational enema to start over again, post Sean Payton…but they will likely cling to the ghost of Payton for one more season (2023) before they probably blow it all up.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Also helping the Saints win this game was the decline of Gardner Minshew (18-32 for 274 yards, 1 TD/1 INT). I thought Minshew looked pretty bad Week 16…he looked even worse Week 17.
Minshew used to be a hot shot rookie who was thrown into action immediately his rookie year due to starter’s injury for Jacksonville a few years ago, and he took the team by storm…he won games, put up numbers, and looked like a top 15-20 NFL QB talent. Just a few years later, he’s just a shell of himself. I don’t know what happened…I just know it’s ‘not good’ when watching these last two games.
Minshew has not helped his NFL future with his 2022 emergency play.
This also made me, randomly, think about how good Minshew was as a rookie, how easy it was for him back then, how much the city embraced him…and then just a season later -- tried to play through an injury and benched then dumped by the new regime and now a huge drop off in performance, a forgettable QB now -- I wondered, in 2022, this was kinda of the Brock Purdy rookie/beginning of career story arc.
Just a thought.
-- Minshew mania is not helping Dallas Goedert (3-45-0/6) for FF output. Playing with Minshew, Goedert is averaging 3.0 rec. (4.5 targets), 56.0 yards, and 0.0 TDs per game. Not TE1 work with Minshew in two games…Minshew’s lack of precision is not helping. Minshew is more throwing floaters downfield to the WRs hoping they make a play.
-- If there’s a player that I understand the appeal of less than Miles Sanders (12-61-0, 0-0-0/0), I don’t know who it would be. So mediocre behind a top O-Line…a liability in the passing game. Yet, the Eagles brass thinks he’s a god of some kind.
Sanders is a 2023 free agent. They should let him walk, but they’ll probably do something stupid and throw a bunch of money at him to stay. If he leaves Philly…his FF/Dynasty value is going to plummet ahead. No one is ever going to treat him like the Eagles did the past couple seasons…and it was totally ridiculous.
*We have some upcoming website changes/upgrades coming in 2023. More news on that in a few days. Your saved URL/link for quick FFM access may not work with the upgrade (might have to get to the new page and resave as your quick access URL)…just noting this on the off-chance you get do get disconnected with your old link in the days to come -- that it is likely due to the site update. You can always find us via our (free) App or messages on Twitter or I’ll put a message out on Video if needed. Again, more news on the 2023 website updates/upgrades as we get to 2023.*
-- The final week of New Orleans Saints’ relevance in the 2022 season, and they finally use Taysom Hill (2-2 for 24 yards passing, 14-46-1, 1-10-0/1) for the most rushing attempts and total touches of any game this season. Brilliant.
11 TDs scored by Taysom this season…and the Saints couldn’t be bothered to use him much in about 50-75% of the games this season. Their best, most effective weapon…just sits idle. Alvin Kamara has scored 4 TDs this season to-date, FYI.
I am hoping the Saints honor Hill’s work by letting him play QB for Week 18, all game…or just in the 2nd-half. The guy wants to be a QB…throw him a bone. Would be big for FF tallies while classified as a TE.
-- I’m telling you… Rashid Shaheed (6-79-0/6) might be the best WR on the Saints roster. The growth in his game this season has been amazing. From UDFA to practice squad to first NFL game/touch a 44-yard TD run to barely used WR to starting WR…to, now, might be their most talented WR. Better than Chris Olave…yeah, I said it.
But, just like Taysom Hill…the Saints current staff are NEVER going to see this. Olave is a 1st-round draft pick, dontchaknow? Shaheed can’t be better than Olave…I mean, Shaheed is an undrafted FCS WR! How can he be better than Olave, who went to Ohio State for heaven’s sake!!?
Shaheed began as a deep ball, one trick pony WR this season…but the last few weeks he’s running great routes all over, short-medium-long and making veteran moves and catching most things thrown his way. Shaheed has caught 83.3% of his 30 targets this season. FYI, 2nd-round draft pick Tyquan Thornton has caught 48.8% of his targets this season on 43 targets.
Shaheed might cap off this season with another good-to-great game vs. Carolina Week 18.
-- Alvin Kamara’s (16-73-0, 1-7-0/1) 2022 season falls between ‘he sucks’ and ‘underutilized’. The same staff should be back for 2023…and AK will likely be suspended for 2-4-8 games to start the 2023 season. He’s a dying FF asset.
Eno Benjamin (2-10-0, 1-9-0/1) was pushed as the relief back in this game…which means, good night David Johnson, just go retire and enjoy your riches…and Week 18 might be a lot of Eno Benjamin with AK pulled back or set inactive.
-- Kaden Elliss (5 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 2 TFLs, 3 QB hits) is another Dennis Allen mistake…the guy has been buried on the Saints, under Allen as D-C for three seasons…then buried to start the 2022 season. Then due to injury (how most sleepers ever get a chance to become stars), they move Elliss to more of a middle linebacker-ish type role with Pete Werner hurt…and SURPRISE, Elliss is awesome.
I’ve been mentioning/keeping tabs on Elliss for the past 2-3 years in the Dynasty Stash reports. Finally, he pokes through!
Thank God, he’s a free agent for 2023…and can leave this mess. Enjoy
Snap Counts of Interest:
22 = Sanders
18 = Scott
15 = Gainwell
47 = Trautman
46 = Juwan Johnson
47 = Shaheed
42 = Olave
28 = Kirkwood
