2022 Week 18 NFL Handicapping: All Picks ATS and Survivor Pool Pick
OK, got back on track Week 18…broke the Weeks 16-17 stuck in the mud weeks. 4-0 on the Blazing Five, would've been 5-0 and a Best Bet win had the Cincinnati game booked. 11-4 on all picks ATS.
Week 18, the final week before the playoffs, is always hard to make strong picks because of the questionable motivations of certain teams…and picking days in advance we don't know the teams that will have their motivations killed off by the game results in front of them. Taking all that into consideration, here's what our board looks like days in advance.
Good luck with your final plays of the regular season! We'll be making all the picks/betting advice all playoff long, FYI.
Week 17 results… (ignoring BUF-CIN, obviously)
FFM All picks straight up: 11-4
FFM ATS: 11-4
FFM Best Bet: 0-0 (CIN)
FFM Blazing Five (no TNF): 4-0 (fifth pick was CIN)
FFM Calling a dog for an outright win: 0-0
Chris ATS: 5-10
Ross ATS: 4-11
Chris Best Bet: 0-0 (CIN)
Ross Best Bet: 0-1
When All 3 analysts agree: 1-1
When both analysts disagree with my pick: 5-0, for me
FFM Survivor: NYG(W)
Chris Survivor: XXX
Ross Survivor: DET(W)
All Underdogs ATS = 8-7
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YTD results…
All picks straight up: 177-86-2
ATS: 151-99-5 (60.0%)
Best Bet: 10-6
Blazing Five (no TNF): 51-30-3 (63.0%)
Calling a dog for an outright win: 18-13
Chris ATS: 146-104-5
Ross ATS: 116-119-4
Chris Best Bet: 10-6
Ross Best Bet: 8-8
When All 3 analysts agree: 56-29-1
When both analysts disagree with my pick: 30-19, for me
FFM Survivor: BAL(W), BUF(W), LAC(L), PHI(W), TB(W), CIN(W), KC(W), MIA(W), ATL(L), NO(W), DAL(W), SEA(W), SF(W), MIN(W), DET(L), NYG(W)
Chris Survivor: BAL(W), GB(W), LAC(L), PHI(W), TB(W), LAR(W), CIN(W), DAL(W), BUF(L), TEN(W), SF(W), XXXXX
Ross Survivor: DEN(L), XXX, BUF (L), GB(W), PHI(W), SF(L), LV(W), DAL(W), TB(W), KC(W), BAL(W), MIA(W), SEA(W), CIN(W), NO(W), DET(W)
All Underdogs ATS = 134-116-5
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Week 17 Picks….
HOU at IND (-2.5) *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*
The Computer says: HOU by 1.3 (a 3.8 spread differential)
How are the Colts the favorite here? I have no idea. The Colts may be the single worst team in the NFL…while Houston has been near miss beating several top teams in recent weeks.
The Texans should want to lose for the #1 pick, but Lovie Smith is thinking a win really matters for his job security.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: IND
Ross Jacobs: HOU
CAR at NO (-3.5)
The Computer says: CAR by 0.2 (a 3.7 spread differential)
I think the Saints will pull back on players Week 18 with nothing to play for. Carolina is also out of the playoffs, but Steve Wilks and Sam Darnold do have something to play for so I think Wilks will not sit anyone if he can get away with it and try and win this game to help his resume for getting the Carolina job officially…or getting interviews elsewhere. Wilks is likely gone, so he won't care about the risk to the Carolina stars/players.
*FFM SURVIVOR PICK*
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: NO
Ross Jacobs: CAR
KC (-9.5) at LV
The Computer says: KC by 6.1 (a 3.4 spread differential)
The Chiefs are constantly huge road favorites and then struggle to win the games versus the worst of NFL teams. I'll take what I saw of Stidham last week to give the Chiefs a game.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: LV
Ross Jacobs: LV
BAL at CIN (-7.0)
The Computer says: CIN by 9.8 (a 2.8 spread differential)
I roll with the best team in the NFL…to easily beat this fading Ravens team. How is this spread not 10+? Embarrassing how much the public undervalues the Bengals. It's fine…we'll keep taking your money with them.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: CIN
Ross Jacobs: CIN
DET at GB (-4.5)
The Computer says: GB by 2.1 (a 2.4 spread differential)
No clue what Detroit's motivation will be for this game. If Seattle wins a few hours before this kickoff, the Lions are shot. If Seattle loses, then this game is for the last playoff spot. I think the Lions are the better team across the board, so I'm going to side with the Lions…as a pick if they are out of the playoffs, as a bet if this is a showdown for that last spot.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: GB
Ross Jacobs: DET
TEN at JAX (-6.0)
The Computer says: JAX by 3.8 (a 2.2 spread differential)
I just feel like the Titans are going to win this game, even though it makes no sense…so, I'll just take the points and be happy with that.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: TEN
Ross Jacobs: JAX
CLE at PIT (-2.5)
The Computer says: PIT by 1.0 (a 1.5 spread differential)
Deshaun Watson is (3-2) as CLE starter, and one of the losses was the freakish weather game. The Browns are playing to win and the Steelers aren't that great.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: CLE
Ross Jacobs: PIT
NYJ (-1.0) at MIA *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*
The Computer says: MIA by 0.3 (a 1.3 spread differential)
I'm operating on the theory (that may blow up in my face) that Robert Saleh is going to help his friend Mike McDaniels get a win here, so even with Skylar…I'm with Miami.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: MIA
Ross Jacobs: MIA
ARI at SF (-14.0)
The Computer says: SF by 15.3 (a 1.3 spread differential)
I don't know how the dying Arizona Cardinals will keep this game close with David Blough at QB and other players not playing this week…and the 49ers in a must-win to keep the #2 seed, and possibly get to a #1 seed.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: ARI
Ross Jacobs: SF
TB at ATL (-4.0)
The Computer says: ATL by 3.3 (a 0.7 spread differential)
I get that Tampa Bay doesn't have anything to play for, but it's not like Atlanta is this juggernaut that can be assumed to dominate the TB backups. I'll just take the points with two bad teams.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: TB
Ross Jacobs: TB
DAL (-7.5) at WSH
The Computer says: DAL by 6.9 (a 0.6 spread differential)
New QBs are almost always a curveball…and big road favorites are mostly doomed this year as well. Take the points!
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: DAL
Ross Jacobs: DAL
NE at BUF (-7.5)
The Computer says: BUF by 7.0 (a 0.5 spread differential)
Big game for Buffalo…even bigger for New England. I don't feel great about it but taking a TD+ is the way to go…for a pick, not a bet.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: NE
Ross Jacobs: NE
NYG at PHI (-14.0)
The Computer says: PHI by 14.4 (a 0.4 spread differential)
The Giants are going to pull all key starters for this one, so I don't know how Tyrod Taylor is going to keep this close.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: NYG
Ross Jacobs: PHI
MIN (-7.5) at CHI
The Computer says: MIN by 7.7 (a 0.2 spread differential)
I know big road favorites are doomed but I think the move to Nathan Peterman and the number of guys Chicago is likely to sit out as the Bears 'try' and lose to get the #1 pick is too much against taking the points here.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: MIN
Ross Jacobs: MIN *BEST BET *SURVIVOR*
LAC at DEN (-2.5)
The Computer says: DEN by 2.3 (a 0.2 spread differential)
Even if the Chargers find out this game is meaningless and pull players…their backups are about as good as the Broncos starters these days, so I'll just take the points.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: DEN
Ross Jacobs: DEN
LAR at SEA (-6.5)
The Computer says: SEA by 6.4 (a 0.1 spread differential)
I bet the Rams give Seattle a game here…so I'll take the points.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: LAR *BEST BET*
Ross Jacobs: SEA
