2022 Week 17: Chiefs 27, Broncos 24 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
*Weeks 16-17-18 game week, the game reports will be shortened a bit on some of them to discussing/quick hitting on just the critical facts from the rewatch studies so we can spend more time on looking at the tape of last week’s games for projections prep and sleeper finds this critical FF playoff week/s.
How many more games do I have to watch the Chiefs be a big favorite in and then barely beat their crappy opponent?
KC is (3-6) ATS their past 9 games…(1-4) their last five games. The public, the media, are far too in love with Kansas City. The proof is…no matter what non-Chiefs TV game Tony Romo or Cris Collinsworth are calling, they talk about Patrick Mahomes more than the actual players in the game they are covering…and when they call a game with Mahomes in it, Tony Romo has multiple orgasms in-game.
I know Mahomes is special…but he’s not better than Joe Burrow, nor is his team better than Cincinnati…as we see proven over and over again when they play each other the last two years. Forget losing to Cincy every time now…the Chiefs are lucky they didn’t get two losses handed to them by the dreadful Denver Broncos in the past 4 weeks. Also, KC should’ve lost to Houston in-between that.
Denver was leading this game into the late 2nd-quarter…and was leading after three quarters…and lost the lead in the 4th but cut that lead to three with 6+ minutes left -- but KC held on to pull out the win. This Kansas City team is good, but way underperforming and very susceptible to getting bounced in their first playoff game.
KC is now (13-3) and is waiting to see what’s gonna happen with the BUF-KC reschedule (or not) to find out who the #1 seed in the AFC is gonna be. KC probably holds on…but we’ll see.
*And note I put out a quick App alert that my sources (we’ll see how good they are) are saying that game is trying to get rescheduled to 1/12 THU night and then they’ll make small modifications in the wild card playoff schedule to give either BUF or CIN or both a little extra time (like play their playoff game on a TUE night).
Denver falls to (4-12) with one of the most shocking/disappointing seasons in recent memory. This was the first game coached by the interim coach, who I don’t even wanna waste time learning his name. He did some smart (a.k.a. normal) things in personnel and play calling and whaddya know, they play one of their best games of the season and should’ve beaten KC here. They may surprise LAC Week 18.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I cannot believe this Jerick McKinnon (2-40, 5-52-2/6) run. Barely used all season and then 8 TDs in the last five games. Like…he’s been there for two years, and NOW you figure out he’s good at football? He was already showing you he was better than Clyde Edwards-Helaire late last season…but KC’s coaches are smarter than us, they stuck with CEH to start this season and buried Jerick. Then having CEH taken/ripped away from them (by injury)…SURPRISE, Jerick McKinnon is awesome.
All I can think when I watch this simple dominance/usage of McKinnon is…the Buffalo Bills are just as stupid, because they have James Cook who could do similar things as McKinnon is…and yet the Bills don’t explore it, they just use Cook as a normal RB.
-- JuJu Smith-Schuster (2-21-0/3) has had either 2 or 3 catches in a game in five of his last 7 games. He started out a (4/4) and is a (2/5) since…a (6/9) season for the ‘best’ KC WR? How sad is this for Patrick Mahomes…saddled with the worst WR group of all the elite QBs.
JuJu’s running mate WR, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (2-28-0/7) has had 0-3 catches in a game in 12 of his 16 games this season. I thought MVS would be the sneaky deep ball winner of this weak group, but he has ZERO connection with Mahomes. I’m not sure Mahomes has completed one deep ball pass to MVS in about 10+ tries this season. MVS is a (3/13) this season.
KC is sitting there with two game breaker WRs, two game changers and they refuse to accelerate their integration for the playoffs…and I bet it burns this KC team in the end in 2022.
Kadarius Toney (4-71-0/4) led all the KC WRs here, and he only played 19 snaps…and he’s so clearly their best WR, but Andy Reid/Eric Bieniemy are smarter than you, so KT only plays a few snaps a game. I bet KC gets bounced in the playoffs before getting to the Super Bowl because KC barely slips past weak teams most all season, and their division was the worst in football to aid things, but when they play the top other QBs…KC wilts/fails (lost to CIN and BUF this season), a lot of it by their own hand when Justin Watson plays more snaps than Toney or...
…more than Skyy Moore (3-33-0/4), who should have started Week 1 and if he had he’d be the Rookie Offensive Player of the Year by now. The perfect pitch-and-catch weapon, who looks great with every quick pass they throw him…and he played 15 snaps here.
In 2023, if KC starts Toney-Moore…with a real other veteran WR…this has a chance to be an historic offense. Only held back, right now, as usual, by Reid-Bieniemy…they get credit for how good Mahomes is, but they should get credit for how much they leave ‘on the table’ with Mahomes with terrible play calling and weak weapons they’ve provided.
Tyreek left for a real reason. He didn’t want to leave. The brilliant KC coaches were delighted for him to leave so they could go back to their ‘clever’ playbook. It’s gonna burn them in the end, you watch…
-- Chase Edmonds (7-34-0, 3-39-0/3) looks the best he has all season and Denver is starting to play him more and get him touches…at least this new coach is -- he actually ‘started’ Edmonds in this game, in a two-back set with Latavius.
*We have some upcoming website changes/upgrades coming in 2023. More news on that in a few days. Your saved URL/link for quick FFM access may not work with the upgrade (might have to get to the new page and resave as your quick access URL)…just noting this on the off-chance you get do get disconnected with your old link in the days to come -- that it is likely due to the site update. You can always find us via our (free) App or messages on Twitter or I’ll put a message out on Video if needed. Again, more news on the 2023 website updates/upgrades as we get to 2023.*
-- The new head coach speaking on Albert Okwuegbunam (3-45-1/6) to the media last week: “I haven’t seen him much on the field this year, and I’m just curious as to why that was because he is a good-looking athlete.”
What a novel idea!
Albert O. responded with playing time in Week 18, finally…and a TD…and two drops…and mostly praise from the interim head coach after. With Greg Dulcich out, expect Albert O. to get another good opportunity Week 18 and possibly be a TE1 again against a favorable matchup with LAC.
-- Russell Wilson (26-38 for 222 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) looked a little freer and relaxed and played a solid game here. Wilson still looks like he has the skills…not high-end, but good. He has no O-Line, so there’s that issue pressuring him now. Can Russ be fixed by a new head coach? Maybe. Depends on if the same GM who brought us Nathaniel Hackett can NOT do that again…and that’s a big ‘IF’.
I suspect GM George Paton will throw everything they have at Sean Payton, but I don’t think Payton will take the bait given declining Wilson + losing all those draft picks, BUT it could be such an incredible, desperate deal offered he has to take it…especially now that the Chargers job is off the table it appears. There will not be as many jobs open as there usually is in the NFL this offseason, so Payton may have to take a big Denver offer.
Head coaching jobs available: DEN, CAR
Jobs possibly available: ARI, HOU, IND…maybe WSH.
Could just be 2, maybe 3 at the most that will be open.
-- I wanted the KC-DST for these two late season Denver matchups, and they didn’t really pay off like I had hoped. Wasn’t bad a few weeks ago, but Week 17…once Hackett got hacked, then this game was potentially a curveball with new play calling…and it ended up being just that for the KC-DST. KC struggled with DEN here, but squashed Seattle last week.
When ‘unknowns’ of a new coach/play caller or QB hit…defenses (coordinators) get thrown for a loop. Look at what happened this past week to SF vs. Stidham…the Falcons-DST underperformed against David Blough. Dallas-DST struggled a bit with Josh Dobbs. KC-DST didn’t have a big game vs. a new interim head coach.
Snap Counts of Interest:
50 = MVS
39 = Juju
22 = J Watson
19 = Kadarius
15 = Skyy
29 = McKinnon
27 = Pacheco
04 = RoJo
42 = Latavius
41 = Ch Edmonds
37 = Albert O.
24 = Saubert
23 = Tomlinson
